» Blogs Home

Post Archive


Search

About The King Maker

After retiring as a stock trader, The King Maker became a professional bettor. A legend on the Pregame Forums, The King Maker developed the unique and winning "Kingmaker" MLB system; in football, his personal system charts the weak spots and...

Pregame Wire

Pregame Cheat Sheet

Sportsbook Spy

The King Maker (see all posts from)

GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI: Miami Answers ALL questions.

by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 3:44 PM

Can Miami Actually Stop The Tech Offense?

The new defensive coordinator for Miami was part of a team that shut down Tech last year (28-7 UNC Win). Unfortunately, he won't be suiting up against the Tech offense.

The important thing to note is that Vaughn Telemaque (rFR) and "Ray Ray" Armstrong (true-FR) will be playing a ton of snaps at the safety position on Thursday. I want to show you what happens to a safety that doesn't understand the "keys" to lining up against a Veer/Flex offense.

The Safety has IMPORTANT "contain" duties on the edge, and if he cheats to the line (as most youngsters will do if they need an advantage against the run), then he's going to get popped by a blocker that's trained to nail him in space.

Watch as this Miami safety gets cleared out. He's the second closest guy at the bottom of the screen: Also take note of the OLB that MUST account for the QB. And notice that the Corner has to follow the WR out of the play.....This is man vs. man! Pay attention to the DE that has to read the DIVE and takes himself out of the play. But look at the Safety, ok!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCHuJ8mqjTE&feature=related 

 

Miami Secondary Issues:

*"Jo Jo" Nicholas (Jr) has the Flu, so they lose one experienced Safety tomorrow.

*Miami's Junior CB, DeMarcus Van Dyke, is OUT with a concussion.

*There's a 3rd Redshirt Freshman in the 3 deep at Safety as well.

 

Can you tell me if Miami has the tools to READ this offense from Atlanta?

Remember: it's about SMARTS and EXPERIENCE, not athletic ability.

Guys: This is a critical position to maintain against any sort of VEER or FLEX or LOAD.....

28 Comments:

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 1:27 PM

We're going to look at several vantage points for the Johnson Offense, and maybe I can show you why they should be able to score on Thursday.

I'm still working on this wager, because I need to see what the Miami DC did for the UNC defense last season. WHY DID UNC HOLD GT TO 7 POINTS?

Bear with me, boys!  :)

 

posted by bookinbenjis on 09/16/2009 1:38 PM

Great post, thank you very much

Looking forward to the next installment...

 

posted by razorback fan on 09/16/2009 1:42 PM

GT has more talent, canes not impressive.  Yeah, a winner of Florida State who almost got snuffed by a nobody last week.  Of course the ramblin' wreck has pissed on my leg many times before but feel like they have every edge in this game.  Nice insight Keven  A+.  Thx for the info....

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 2:08 PM

There are two things we MUST look at:

#1 How Did UNC stop GT?

#2 How did Clemson Stop GT in the 2nd half?

We need to also look at the potential from the Miami Defensive Ends.

 

posted by bookinbenjis on 09/16/2009 2:19 PM

I watched the replay of the GT Clemson game last night and conditioning can't be overlooked as a partial factor for GT's second-half play last week...not only was their defense spent, but the offense was too, and fairly early

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 2:24 PM

Ok: Good.

But it puzzles me, because they have 61 returning letterman, and they are top heavy on Upperclassman.

It's a big factor, thanks!

 

posted by Floridachad on 09/16/2009 2:41 PM

Biggest thing I noticed in the Clemson-GT game last week was that in the 2nd half, Clemson stacked the box and forced GT to pass.  Game was over after that because GT has a stiff for a QB.  Miami DC has experience against GT and if you look at GT box scores last year you'll that GT QB Josh Nesbitt never attempted more than 15 passes in any game all year...except the UNC game where he threw it 22 times.  And they outgained UNC (most of it on the ground) in that game but still lost.  Miami has had 2 weeks to prepare to defend the triple option and if they can put 8 in the box successfully and play tight on the receivers, then Miami will cruise.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 3:16 PM

Excellent Chad, and noted.

Did you see that Nesbitt threw the ball 6 times in last year's meeting, late in the season? The ran the ball 56 times!

That being said, your points are the very points that have me working hard on this play.

Two weeks isn't enough for Telemaque and "Ray Ray", but it is enough for the Front seven.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 4:16 PM

Chad: Last year, UNC was better on defense than Miami AGAINST THE RUN.

UNC stunk VS the pass.

UNC had 4 Defensive Tackles that weighed OVER 300 pounds each and they had oversized Defensive ends that were able to lock down the edge.

It's probably more a flaw in design than anything else. Tech may have attempted more passes in that UNC game becuase UNC was vulnerable against the pass.

Their DE's only had 7 sacks between them last year, and the entire UNC team only had 22 sacks.

So the uptick in passes was partly due to a weak UNC secondary and a powerful RUN Stopping D-line.

Does that make any sense?

 

posted by BeatDaOdds on 09/16/2009 4:22 PM

UNC Defense dominated our Option running game. We couldn't move the ball on the ground against them at all. Not looking at any stats but just from memory we didnt try to pass anymore than we did against any other opponent. Their run defense was that good. After that game I was convinced they had the best run D in the NCAA, Could not move the ball against them.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 4:33 PM

Beatdaodds: They did and still do have a stout Run Defense. Here are the numbers from that game (And thanks for the help here!):

GT ran the ball well: 6.0 yards per carry and 326 yards.

They were 10-23 passing for 97 yards.

Dwyer had an 85 yard run in that game so the rushing stats are squewed. They had tough sledding, but sill held the ball for 31 minutes even with 3 turnovers!

It was the 3 turnovers that killed them.

UNC was 4-14 on 3rd down.

So the sledding was tough, but that UNC defensive line was and is better than the Miami line.

*GT was stopped on downs twice in the first half and missed TWO Field Goals in the first half!

THEN:

*Two Fumbles and an interception in the second half.

GT stopped themselves in a way......

 

posted by Floridachad on 09/16/2009 4:48 PM

Actually, BeatDaOdds, UNC allowed 6 yards/carry on 54 carries for a whopping 326 yards.  What you may have remembered was that UNC forced 4 fumbles (recovering 2) consistently denied GT the end zone.

Kev - Nesbitt was 10 for 22 for 97 yards and an INT, so if UNC stunk vs the pass, then what does that say about this GT air game?

I like Miami in the game but unfortunately the line has moved away from a number I'm comfortable with laying.  I think the under may be the better play right now.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 5:08 PM

Chad: If you look above, I saw the same thing just now.

Nesbitt is horrible passing!!!!!! I saw him in the Clemson game. It's pretty hopeless.

I was going to ask you about the UNDER. If a person like Miami, then they would like the under, IMO.

The crux of the wager lies in the status of that Miami D-line. Is Moncur totally healthy at DE? They are very thin there.

 

posted by dfresh on 09/16/2009 5:28 PM

KM, Great insight on the GT/FSU game.  

Have you checked out my analysis on the Boise game?  Feel free to add your 2 cents.  GL this weekend.

 

posted by BeatDaOdds on 09/16/2009 5:32 PM

Well see with GTs Option offense they are gonna bust big runs at times thats just gonna happen. That can skew that avg yards per run.  If you go thru the play by play you ll see quite a few over 15 yard burts but besides those their Run D was stellar. 326 yards is not that impressive for our Run game either as good as it sounds LOL.

In regards to fumbles it was GT s first year in the triple option so obviously those are gonna happen. They had problems with it this year in their first game against Jacksonville ST. I believe they coughed it up 5 times. They did a lot better job with that against Clemson though.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/16/2009 6:54 PM

BeatDaOdd: The running stats were squewed and your memory is definitely correct.

What's up with Dwyer this year! He's looking a bit less scary!

I'll tell you, the Miami/FSU game showed a complete flip/flop from last year. FSU went from 53 carries for 350 yards to running for just a little over 100 this year.

It's killing me!

EVERYTHING hinges on the Miami DE's....The safeties are going to be beaten, but the lynch pin is the DE's....I think one of the GT tackles is VERY light....., but that's part of the allignment.....

 

posted by Docwatson on 09/16/2009 8:59 PM

Just an FYI. The team that has won the rushing battle in this contest is 5-1 SU & ATS. Georgia Tech is going to get theirs and they played Clemson's tough run game within reason last week. Just something to chew on, and strong cases can be made for both teams...Chad is probably right about the under.

Another thing is the fact that Miami gave up a good deal of points against a Florida State team that I didn't break 20 against Jack St while Tech had an easy time of it.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/17/2009 6:18 AM

I hear ya, Docwatson: I'm pretty sure GT can cover if the turnovers are kept to a minimum.

The two games that really hurt the Jackets (offensively) were both caused by turnovers, onside kicks, punt return fumbles...so the LSU debacle and the UNC loss can be reduced in significance.

This Miami Defense can be worn down.

 

posted by Sac Lawson on 09/17/2009 6:32 AM

Love the write up King.. you mention the two young safeties, i think it's important to realize the canes have Randy Phillips (senior) and Jared Campbell (Jr) ... Phillips hasn't seen much time in his days at Miami but amazingly he's played 6 games in his career and has 6 interceptions... Losing Van Dyke is a big big issue for us, luckily we have nothing but experienced guys backing him up (Hill, Grant, Shields) ... Should be a great game, i think the key is whether Miami can stop that AMAZING DE for Gtech.  I really think the LB corp for the Canes is a huge advantage (McCarthy, Spence, Sharpton).. they should take a lot of pressure of the safeties.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/17/2009 7:35 AM

I did fail to mention Philips and Campbell, and that's something I should have included.

I was zoning in on the "rotation" and the fact that Campbell was listed as the third option behind Telemaque and "Jo Jo".  I just didn't see Campbell as an experienced man, even as a Junior.

That being said: He is a Junior and should know his reads, even if he has no real experience against the Flex.

I like Philips! He should have been mentioned. As you stated, he's not experienced in real time play, but when he plays he does well.

I have a statement by Philips going up in the next post in the forum play.....

pregame.com/.../616376.aspx

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/17/2009 7:49 AM

In the Spring Campbell was buried behind Jo jo and Vaughn T. .........

Saclunch, did Campbell face GT last year? I can't find the tackles stats from LY......

 

posted by Sac Lawson on 09/17/2009 8:52 AM

Km,  I think campbell played in the opener last year and did special teams the rest of the season while being a scout team safety.. he's had a rough transition from primarily a running back high school to safety in college.. that being said, coaching staff is confident that in his third season he should be able to contribute

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/17/2009 9:14 AM

Thanks, Saclunch.

It's a bitch finding defensive stats...the public and the maintstream stat collectors dont focus on defense at all! Bitches!

I've slowly developed a theory that you can get the edge on Vegas by focussing hard on the defenses. This is an aspect that the public cares nothing about...smae goes for a few other stat columns..

 

posted by GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI: Installment #1: Safety has it's limits … | Georgia Today on 09/17/2009 5:23 PM

Pingback from  GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI: Installment #1: Safety has it's limits … | Georgia Today

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/17/2009 7:09 PM

Well gentleman!

Miami Certainly destroyed the Tech Defense, but they also did a great job on the Tech offense.

It looks like Miami might be able to do a ton of damage in the ACC. It's clear that Tech has a very poor secondary.

I'm sorry. I thought there was more heft in that GT attack. My reasoning didn't hold up as well as I'd expected.

 

posted by Miami Hurricane on 09/18/2009 1:57 PM

Remember: it's about SMARTS and EXPERIENCE, not athletic ability. I knew that's issue was not quite right. Miami has speed, similar to the Hurricanes a decade ago, so be carefull about not accounting for athletic ability.

 

posted by The King Maker on 09/18/2009 2:15 PM

Miami Hurricane: They looked great!

It is, however, the first time that this particular group actually showed it could stop a good offense, so things are definitely looking up!

The new Miami DC is a good one! He's shown that he can completely out-scheme the Tech offense into nothingness.

 

posted by Lawyer in West Point offering legal service to those suffering from asbestos exposure on 09/21/2009 12:36 AM

Pingback from  Lawyer in West Point offering legal service to those suffering from asbestos exposure

Featured posts from The King Maker



PregameForums.com: free sports betting picks, sportsbook gambling tips