Main Sections » home

» Blogs Home

View by Sport/Subject

NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, MLB, NHL, Other Sports, Girls, Pop culture, Politics, Sportsbooks, Vegas Life

View by Post Type

Videos, Pics, Conversation, Rants, Handicapping, Picks, Theory, Press

Post Archive

Search

Blogger Bios

About The King Maker

After retiring as a stock trader, The King Maker became a professional bettor. A legend on the Pregame Forums, The King Maker developed the unique and winning "Kingmaker" MLB system; in football, his personal system charts the weak spots and...

The King Maker's Popular

See All of The King Maker's Popular

Pregame Wire

See News Wires

Pregame Cheat Sheet

Sportsbook Spy

The King Maker (see all posts from)

ACCOUNTABILITY: Shouldn't Every Professional Handicapper Be Monitored?

by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 10:00 AM

If you receive money from a client base, then you have the money to reinvest in a monitoring service. It's just that simple. The owner of Pregame.com actually makes it easy on willing professionals to become the subject of an independent monitoring service, it should be noted that he has done whatever he can to make this site more transparent. With that being said........

Should a "service" be trusted with their own reporting methods?

I'm sure you can answer that for yourself. When money is involved, self-regulation is NOT an acceptable form of governance.

Moving on:

The following complaints will occur, in terms of using a monitoring service.

1. "I like to buy points, and the 'monitor' won't let me."

2. "I use multiple books, and the 'monitor' uses a limited set of sources."

3. "I base a lot of my work on Teasers and the monitor doesn't accept them."

Those are valid points, but let's be honest. I don't have any solid numbers, but I believe 40% of the available client base works with a "local" source for their wagering transactions (Municipal or "Bookie"). These local sources are not as flexible as an "offshore book", so the "monitoring" guidelines are closer to reality. Teasers and large point "buys" are not accepted in those locales.

The dangers of "Forum Records":

When a record is kept in a forum, "typographical errors" become quite common. Some of those records are made out of honest human error, and some of them are outright mistakes of dubious origin. Either way, it's NOT a good way of doing business. At the end of each quarter, a corporation will release a detailed report on its balance sheet. As a money gathering entity with a performance based revenue structure, the "Service" is, or should be, bound by the same reporting methodology.

*The forum record can also be fluffed up by supporters of a given capper, or denigrated by hidden competitors of a given handicapper. The entire process of posting a forum record falls under a multitude of divergent agendas.

*TYPOS also occur in the transmission of a record from one forum to another, and the alteration of that record, in the hands of a competitor (or downright cheat) is entirely possible....AND INEVITABLE.

Forum records should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt for the above reasons.

It's taken me a while to figure out how to deal with a monitoring service, but I now believe that it's the only way to separate the touts from the legitimate handicappers. It's forced me to lean toward the needs of the clients that don't use offshore books (frankly, theses are the clients with the most at risk, by the way)

Wouldn't you be happier (as a client) if you could reference an independently monitored handicapper?

Should all "paid handicappers" be monitored by a 3rd party?

I'm open to every opinion on this matter, and would love to hear your opinions.....

read more: Betting Theory, CBB, CFB, Conversation, Everything Else, Handicapping, money management, NFL, Professional Handicapper, The King Maker

34 Comments:

	posted by Dan Bebe on 09/14/2009 9:35 AM How much does it cost to get monitored for a season of, say, NFL?
	posted by freeneasy on 09/14/2009 9:51 AM of coarse they should kevin. paid handicappers should be monitored on a number of different levels. they should br monitored on their 1) total win loss record 2) if paid tout gives out "unit rated games' fluctuating from say 1 to 5 units then according to each different level of these "unit rated games" a win loss record should be kept and 3) all record keeping between pro and colledge should be kept seperate. see? i fix it all up. easy peasy lemon squeezy
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 9:52 AM RJ handles all that for me, and I get a discount because of it. You can probably email RJ or I can point you in the right direction as far as where to go for the pricing. It's not back-breaking, but I think it could be near $200-$400 per season (Give or Take). I think it's the most irrefutable, and quickest way to become a PRO. Just my opinion.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 9:57 AM Definitely, Free! The Sports Monitor separates the college and pro, and uses both a rating system and a money system with ROI...etc...... It's fairly accruate. :)
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 10:27 AM By the way: When I said "Definitely Free!" I was referring to "Feeneasy", not service fees. :)
	posted by altham on 09/14/2009 10:33 AM This is my take. If a pro doesn't want to get monitored than they are a fraud. IMO, a handicapper needs to hit 55% over 500-1000 plays to even be considered a pro. I see way to many forum cappers post 60% on 100 plays, only to disappear when they hit 40% on their next 100. You could flip a coin and hit 60% on 100 plays. The seasoned veteran knows that 55% is golden long term.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 10:52 AM Right on Target.....although volume can be argued. Also: You cannot outrun a monitored record. For instance. I am monitored. My basketball record is phenomenal, and it's there for everyone to see, but on the flip side, my baseball record is also there to see, which was clipped off early and also not "marketable". I have to earn that reputation back. Most guys wont get monitored because that 55% mark you posted is hard to maintain in an honest, non forum setting. That's not to say that guys that aren't being monitored are a fraud. We might differ there, Altham. Maybe they haven't had a chance to get signed up yet. I DO think that people that pay for picks should be aware of the correct record of the seller.
	posted by altham on 09/14/2009 11:03 AM The not monitored part is a gray area. There are handicappers who are good that don't post records. However, it takes a lot of research to find honest handicappers who aren't transparent.
	posted by freeneasy on 09/14/2009 11:43 AM idonno kevin. pregame has been a little dissappointing in this regaurd. i think that thruout the years pregame has developed an honest enough reputation in and of itself that an inhouse monitoring program could easily be installed and truly trusted to produce 100% accuracy. recored information can be given on each handicapper and it could look something like this kingmaker colledge football betting levels per play 1 unit 2 units 3 units number of 1 unit plays 10 record 7-3 +2,60 units number of 2 unit plays 7 record 5-2 +2.80 units number of 3 unit plays 5 record 4-1 +2.90 units total record 14-6 +8.30 units information on any particular handicapper can be had by clicking on that handicappers name. it seems that a basic program could easily be written for this type of accomidation. whats so difficult about that? as far as recording wins and losses are concerned u could have a problem when the pointspread is involved. and what i mean by that is this. if a paid capper gives out a play without a cutoff point then this could be a potential problem concerning weather that game can or should be considered a win or a loss to that paid handicapers record if i give out usc without a cutoff point then i could get em at -10 and u could get em at -13 and if they win by 14 then everybody wins. what happens if they win by a score of 12-0?. i win and u lose. shoud a win or a lose go on my record as a paid handicapper? its a win but at the same time its also a loss and a legitimate argument could ensue if i was to count this as a win on my record but if i give out usc with a cutoff at usc -12 and they win by 12 then weather or not i bet usc at -10 it should go down on my record as a push. if i make the cutoff at usc -13 and they win by 12 then regaurdless of weather or not i was able to bet usc at -10 it sholud still go down on my record as a loss. its almost a "catch 22" but where honesty and integraty are concerned then there is no room for argument. the stricktest demands for accuracy must be implimented. its kinda like this pizza place called "wildflower pizza" they dont make a small, medium or large pizza. they make one size and one size only and their motto for this is "onea sizea, noonea crysa" luv it.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 11:46 AM Yeah: There's no need to post records unless you're touting something... The second a person says "I'm great" or "I'm better"...or "I am marketable", then you better have a record handy (from day #1) Contributions should not be hampered by record keeping if you're just trying to help out. And those people should never be bashed.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 12:51 PM Good points, Free: I can't speak for Pregame on the in-house monitoring system, but I can tell you that primitive attempts at doing an in-house tracking system gets criticized if the "house" makes a mistake in recording the data. So you get this time consuming and expensive program to track your cappers and then it becomes obsolete once a mistake is made. Bashers would be all over it. It's a costly mistake for such a time consuming effort. I think this is why we have independent monitors out there (although I think the Sports Monitor sells picks too)...so I can't say they're totally independent. On the fixed line: That's a valid point, and it really hangs on the personal relationship that the capper has with his clients. Posting on a Tuesday for a Sunday game is both SHARP and counter-productive at the same time. That's a huge "catch-22". In hoops, I will usually try to tell the readers when a paid pick is going to come out. Most of my clients don't have the overnight lines at their disposal, so it's very hard for me to pull the trigger on a game at 8PM the previous day without screwing the late buyer. SO..... I generally post in the morning of the game (because the late line moves in hoops are usually dumb money anyway). Football is a different animal, but THERE NEEDS TO BE A "TAKE DOWN" RULE ON PLAYS THAT MOVE PAST THE "BUY-DOWN" LIMITS (-140?) Perhaps a play can be pulled down if it varies more than 2 points off the posted line (by the capper). The client needs to be alerted to the play in a fair amount of time, and when that line becomes UNTENABLE, then the play should be pulled. Pulling the play may be hard to do from an establed programming point of view (at the moment). The "back-end" of some systems are not yet ready to remove content. ------------------------------------- Speaking to your point: I don't know what to do on that line variance problem. I count what I post, (and I post within 24 hours of a game). It's very hard to be responsible for a big line move. Though It rarely happens for me. There should be a "pull down the play button" when a line jumps. It can't be in the cappers possesion though, because what would stop a bad guy from deleting plays that fail. Hard questions and very relevant. I have three kids crawling on me, so let me know if I'm way off base.......
	posted by Central07 on 09/14/2009 12:55 PM King, Just wanted to drop by and let you know the writeups you give out are top notch, thank you brother!
	posted by freeneasy on 09/14/2009 1:10 PM yeah king i guess its just not as simple as i seem to make it sound
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 1:10 PM Thanks, Central! You can call me Kevin. :)
	posted by The King Maker on 09/14/2009 1:12 PM Free: You're right in every way. But MAN. People can screw the pooch from every angle. And you know how hard it is to please some folks. Your proposed method is the right way. Public reception is the problem...I think.
	posted by Dunadan on 09/14/2009 10:10 PM If you want teasers and points to be monitored, you can use Betting Advice Group Surveillance or Sports-Tipsters.co.uk. On top of that, you have the National Sports Monitor who is a true monitor out there with enough credibility.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/15/2009 6:02 AM Thanks Dunadan! :)
	posted by razorback fan on 09/15/2009 7:51 AM Many bets aren't recorded, I mean how many of us post every bet we make - not me for sure. I hate being tethered to this f'ing computer. I would suspect that many "pro's" pad their record with personal bets - the ones that win. Seems like one would get lazy & tired of reporting - just another institution to report to. To me one less GDMF person or place that I have to be accountable to - the better. I've reached the bather loade on responsibility and reporting to every MF in the world - so it seems. Life of a professional ain't what it's cracked up to be. I would rather just hole up in a dim room sipping on gin & juice only to pop up on the internet site of my choice from time to time - cause this face-to-face establishment gig is getting rather redundant. Oops, sorry, that's my Monday morning rant - now I've got to do payroll and make 10,000 phone calls - have a nice day.
	posted by Dan Bebe on 09/15/2009 9:19 AM A couple hundo isn't bad for a full season, especially of baseball - thanks Kevin!
	posted by loonlvr on 09/17/2009 3:50 PM tHE THING IS THAT SOME PEOPLE USE OFFSHORE ONLY(ME) WHILE OTHERS USE LOCALS. iN THE HAPPY WORLD ALL CAPPERS WOULD USE UNITS.VERY SIMPLIFIED. i WOULD BE SATISFIED IF WHEN A CAPPER USUES A OCASSIONAL TEASER OR TEAM TOTAL,HE NOT NOT BOTHERPOSTING RECORD UNLESS HE USUES IT REGULAR. UNITS ARE SIMPLE AND EASY TO TRACK.
	posted by ngnichols on 09/17/2009 8:07 PM They should, but they won't simply from the fact that if they are crappy, they don't want their #'s being released because it would hamper their ability to sell plays through manipulative wording/videos.
	posted by spartan on 09/17/2009 8:30 PM I made arrangement with RJ this afternoon to sign on the with sports monitor. It's not an inexpensive process but I'm confident it will pay dividends.
	posted by Greg Shaker on 09/17/2009 9:03 PM Yes, all handicappers should be monitored regardless of what it costs. Nice thread Kevin...
	posted by spartan on 09/17/2009 9:05 PM Agreed Greg! Good luck to you this weekend!
	posted by ok greyhound on 09/18/2009 4:22 AM whatever u say
	posted by spartan on 09/18/2009 6:29 AM ok greyhound, What do you mean by that? If you have something to say then do it!
	posted by Miami Hurricane on 09/18/2009 2:36 PM I haven't used cappers for several years. I love doing my own homework. I look at the free picks only when, they give valid reasons to support their selections. Some are very good. One thing I rarely do is wager different amounts on games in general. Maybe I'm "Old School", but to say that one wager is rated a single star and another is a 10 or a 50 star play is outright irrational. That being said, how could you accurately monitor that?? if I feel I have a 75% game (3 star), two 70% games (2 star) and three 65% games (1 star), I play the top 3 or perhaps all six. if I win 4 of 6 I'm great but what if I lost my top 2 and won the bottom four? I would be five wins and five losses (paying vig!!) I would rather be 4W-2L wagering the same amounts. Remember all it takes are Two unfavorable fluke turnovers, bad calls, in a game on any given day, could send that type of capper home taking the Greyhound Bus, and perhaps come back the following year using a new stage name.
	posted by spartan on 09/18/2009 3:07 PM I was not a paid capper at the old site, I went by Greyhound and was a free poster and that was all I was. When the new site of pregame came around I had trouble getting logged on as Greyhound for whatever reason. I changed to Spartan, I had no idea of ever becoming a paid capper here. You imply that I switched for another reason. I don't know who you are but you are totally screwed up with your facts regarding me. I only became a pro here at this site after being approached by pregame to do so. I would say it was because I had a reputation for both honesty and winning. I don't appreciate your implications, not one damn bit. People like Sig and some of the other's like the boys or Hizz would recall my winning as Greyhound as well. I get sick and tired of these dime school detectives with nothing better to do than try and stir up crap. Get a life! Those are the facts, no hidden story or deep dark secret.
	posted by The King Maker on 09/18/2009 3:18 PM Spartan: You will benefit greatly from public reporting. Your success will translate well to that platform, without a doubt! MiamiHurricanes: As far at the 50 unit deal is concerned, the Monitoring Service that I use allows you to rate your plays between 1 and 10 Stars...no more, no less, so the idiotic 50-star bullshit is removed. Good post! Great points! Greg: Thanks, brother!
	posted by The Answer on 09/18/2009 3:29 PM Kevin i got a question how do i go about signing up for a monitor even though i am not a pro capper ??
	posted by The King Maker on 09/18/2009 3:34 PM You can Contact the folks at The Sports Monitor and they will sign you right up. I think the non-discount price is $1,000.00 per year (don't quote me on that). Here's the link: www.thesportsmonitor.com If you look into this string of posts there are other sites that can help you, but I'm only "familiar" with The Sports Monitor You don't have to be a Pro. It will make you a Pro the quickest (outside of Pregame), so I hope you do it!
	posted by The King Maker on 09/18/2009 3:43 PM Spartan is one of the best handicappers in this market. Hands down. Classy gentlemen are hard to find in this profession. I don't know most of the cappers out there (I'm reclusive;), but I DO know that Greg Shaker, Spartan, and Vegas Runner are three of the most genuine handicappers I've witnessed. On a REAL LIFE level, those boys are not screwing around.
	posted by spartan on 09/18/2009 3:56 PM Nice of you to say Kevin, thanks for "keeping it real"! You always stay positive my friend and that is a tremendous trait to have. World needs more recluse's like you my friend!
	posted by Dunadan on 09/18/2009 8:54 PM NSM only demands half of the TSM and your plays will be shown after game starts.