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After retiring as a stock trader, The King Maker became a professional bettor. A legend on the Pregame Forums, The King Maker developed the unique and winning "Kingmaker" MLB system; in football, his personal system charts the weak spots and...

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LONG TERM TRENDS: Keep Telling Yourself That they Matter..........

by The King Maker on 01/12/2009 1:08 PM

Every Girl has her own way of using a dress, and every bettor does the same with a trend.

I submit that EVERY trend has an equal and opposite trend to counter it. We can argue the relative merit of that statement, so I'll throw out a perfect example of what I'm talking about. If you disagree, then feel free to counter my claim:

"Louisville is 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons." YAY! Let's take the Cards!!!!!!

"Louisville is 8-20 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997." YAY! Let's take the Irish!

Which way do we go?

The person that reads the 11-2 ATS information might never see the 8-20 ATS trend because each line was used by separate cappers to peddle their pick. Those two trends will also be separated in the data streams due to the natural segregation of "Hot" and "Cold" indicators. Cappers use trends as window dressing on their plays, as they lend a certain amount of legitimacy to any line of reasoning.

And, Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there a player that was on the Louisville team in 1997 that is playing tonight?

Long Term trends are lipstick on a pig, but if you choose to use them, make sure the trend doesn't extend past the service time of the senior class, and NEVER use a long term trend that bases 80% of it's history on coaches, players, and systems that are no longer active, or (gasp) alive!

This is just a rant. And I will accept any, and all, contrary opinions with open ears.

read more: CBB, College Basketball, handicapping strategy, long term trends, Louisville, Notre Dame, The King Maker Maker

19 Comments:

	posted by pool on 01/12/2009 12:11 PM I agree 100%. Long term trends are just like taking a poll. You can get any result you want by the way you shape the questions.
	posted by Mike Shuttlesworth on 01/12/2009 12:21 PM I think certain trends can be valuable, but you will always be able to find trends for both sides. Always.
	posted by boss302 on 01/12/2009 12:22 PM Very good observation. Something that really needed to be said. However, there are times, albeit rare, that there are not conflicting trends and or trends for the current year which I feel are the best to consider. Also, this is why I like to use "coaching trends", since they tend to be more stable over the course of time.
	posted by deliveryman3 on 01/12/2009 12:50 PM agree with you......u here someone say dallas is 15-4 since 1980 blah blah balh........more coincidence than anything and many times the sample is too small for the time frame to be truly meaningful
	posted by The King Maker on 01/12/2009 1:06 PM Boss makes a good point, as "coaching trends" are certainly powerful, and not conflicting, so yes, I may be in error about EVERY trend being "reciprocated". Ray: You are correct. Very good point! Also: Short term trends are not what I'm attacking, and, in fact, there are a few short term indicators that support the Cards being in a weak spot tonight as far as energy. (I think I wasn't too clear there. :) Deliveryman: totally agree.
	posted by vaughn172000 on 01/12/2009 2:32 PM As always, insightful and intelligent info...
	posted by GoodFella on 01/12/2009 4:31 PM Some trends are meaningless and some have legit value & merit....but I agree a trend with completely different rosters & coaches....does not do a whole lot for me personally........
	posted by The King Maker on 01/12/2009 4:45 PM Yeah. I think we've come to a nice middle ground. Trends that are built on continuity are VERY useful.
	posted by Jeff Scott Sports on 01/12/2009 4:50 PM I like trends, but also know which ones im looking for and I NEVER bas a pick solely on a trend. Technical handicapping is only 33% of the game. Some trends are meaningless, especially day of the week trends in baseball. There are certain long term trends that will still work consistently. You just have to know how to look for them and use them.
	posted by Mike Shuttlesworth on 01/12/2009 4:54 PM Yeah they are useful and meaningless at the same time. I think the reason a lot of us look at trends and frown is due to the overuse by some "professionals". Some guys use trends to their advantage very well and do quite well in the business. I think you put it best with the "window dressing". I see a lot of this. I could pick any side of any game and throw trends at you to make it pretty. It is too easy to fluff up a pick and make it look like you know what you are talking about with trends.
	posted by The Money Market on 01/12/2009 5:07 PM Are you saying a pig with lipstick played on the 1997 Louisville team?
	posted by The King Maker on 01/12/2009 5:39 PM Money Market: I have seen a Louisvile cheerleaders that looked like pigs with lipstick! Yikes!
	posted by The King Maker on 01/12/2009 5:44 PM In my opinion, if you see a tout posting trends that are 30 years old, or trends that say "So and so is 31-12 on Mondays", AND THAT'S ALL THEY POST IN THEIR ANALYSIS, then I would ignore the write-up. One of the trends that I posted in the write-up was written by a well respected capper, and the other was not. This is the one from the Great Capper: "Louisville is 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons." The other one....not so much.
	posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/12/2009 10:28 PM Outstanding conversation Kev. I especially agree that long-term trends in college sports are far more useless considering the high turnover for coaches and athletes alike.
	posted by The King Maker on 01/13/2009 7:35 AM Thanks Matty. We also saw that the capper with the short term trend information won the wager!
	posted by GoodFella on 01/14/2009 2:33 PM Great topic and BLOG here KM.
	posted by Straguzzi on 01/14/2009 2:52 PM I like to keep it to the L3 yrs in CBB
	posted by Dogcrap Green on 01/17/2009 10:12 AM Could not agree with you more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Clowns study the stats and trends like they are on some cutting edge information that they and they alone have. THE BOOKS HAVE THEM TOO!!!!! If the books want balance betting or EVEN more bets on the losing side of the line. Trends, Stats and Sentiment have got to play into the line. Common sense says if the trend says one thing the line was push another way.
	posted by Dunadan on 01/17/2009 5:12 PM On soccer, on national teams, you find some very powerful long-long-long-long-long-term trends. For example, Spain can't win against Italy on the regulation time against Italy for almost 70 years. Another one, Portugal against Germany only won once... Against France, usually ends up loosing on the Last 30 years. Against Italy same thing. However England has lost several matches in the last years, but that trend is more short-term. Another long-term, but not that long is Portugal winning against Netherlands. But against Brasil, on Brasil, Portugal loses all the time, same thing usually happens in Spain... But this is a very specific trend. Usually portuguese clubs/teams fare badly against italian or even german ones... Some clubs against clubs from certain countries it is almost a certain loss/defeat... :D