RJ Bell

Statistics Contradict NBA's Claims About Referee Donaghy

RJ_Bell — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 04:58:00 GMT

A combined 25-0 by bettors against Las Vegas not easily explained away.

Las Vegas, Nevada (10/2/2008) - The results of an investigation ordered by NBA commissioner David Stern have concluded that Tim Donaghy did not affect the outcome of games, and that referee Scott Foster was not involved in any misconduct. These claims run contrary to some extremely damning statistics reported by RJ Bell of Pregame.com:

The first 15 games of the 2006-07 refereed by Tim Donaghy that had big enough betting to move the point spread by at least 1.5 points were UNDEFEATED against Las Vegas - meaning that the big-money gamblers won 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening randomly are 32,768 to 1.

"To conclude Donaghy did not fix the games you have to believe that a person troubled enough to provide inside information to criminals was able to referee games in which he had a financial interest without any bias. Plus, you have to believe that information alone allowed big bettors to beat Las Vegas 15 straight times," said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Donaghy called Foster 134 times from October 2006 through April 2007. The investigation was satisfied with the reason behind the calls being friendship between the men, even though - according to Fox Sports - the calls "stopped abruptly" when Donaghy is believed to have stopped gambling.

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, TEN games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those ten teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas - meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 10 of 10 times on Foster's games; the odds of that happening randomly are greater than 1000 to 1 against!

Combined, the two questionable referees had big line moves in 13% of their games. A random sample of the first 100 NBA games of December 2007 resulted in only 6% of games having a line move of 2 points or more. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "Donaghy and Foster's games had big line moves over double as often as a random sample of NBA games."

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. RJ Bell is available for any follow-up questions or media appearances at: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Sports Illustrated, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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Clint Holmes Hanging with RJ in Las Vegas

RJ_Bell — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:31:00 GMT

Or, should I say RJ hanging with Clint Holmes? Yeah, that does sound more reasonable!

Long-time friend of Pregame.com, Mark Wayman, has a Quarterly business event that brings together some of the most interesting people in Las Vegas. The purpose is to connect those people in a comfortable environment, and see what happens!

Last time, I got to meet boxing legend Al Bernstein. This last Friday at the Vox Wine Lounge, on top of the impressive group of Casino Executives and politicians - singing superstar Clint Holmes was in attendance. Everyone seemed to have a great time, and everyone was very nice.

Mark Wayman is very generous with charity, and one of his favorites is Big Brothers Big Sisters, which happens to be on the preferred list at PickCharity.org - a new Pregame.com project. It's our effort to give back a little, and thank those who our generous with their time and money.

Poker at the Bellagio, Las Vegas: 5-7 Heaven

RJ_Bell — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 15:53:00 GMT

Drove down to the Strip to play poker Saturday night. Bellagio. My favorite cardroom by far. Spreads the most games by far. Marco and others like Venetian best, mostly because of the space between the tables. Personally, I'd rather be cramped in a better game.

Started at 7 pm. 2-5 NL. Won about $400 the first few hours. A total manic - raising with anything - was in the game. When a seat to his left came open, I jumped at it. You typically want to be to the left of a very aggressive player, so you act AFTER him.

I have 5-7 in the small blind, in an un-raised pot. I limped in. The manic was on the button. Flop comes 346 unsuited. I had the nuts! I check, manic bets $20 - I make it $40, and he calls. River comes 9. I still have the nuts. I bet $75 and instantly he says ALL IN. He had over $1000 left! My heart was racing. I checked the board, and my cards to be sure, and called. The river was a blank - the manic had 2-5 (the second nuts) and I won a $2000 pot!!

Funny thing is, the manic responded to this be leaving to play in the 5-10 game. Even funnier, he sat down right next to noted poker author Mason Malmuth. He was broke within a half hour.

About 1 am I decide to take a shot. Up $1600 at that point, I go to 5-10 for the first time ever. Typically, I'm not a big fan of playing higher than I am comfortable. But a great book about Stu Ungar called One of a Kind talks about to be great you must be comfortable with losing, because no matter the endeavor, you will likely be a loser when you step up to the next level until you have experience at that level. If you can't deal with losing, then you can't grow into that next level. A tough theory for me, but I've been working on it.

Played very tight at 5-10, and won another $100 - for a total of $1700. Drove home at 4 am, down the half-empty Strip with the windows down.

Overrated? Underrated? Odds on 2008 College Football National Championship

RJ_Bell — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:14:00 GMT

True Vegas Odds
August 26, 2008

Know more than the next guy: Sports facts backed by math!

This is the first in a weekly column in which I will break down and explain the meaning of actual odds from Las Vegas. Every guy in a bar has opinions; Vegas, though, is willing to back its opinion with millions of dollars � and that�s an opinion worth taking seriously!

Misconceptions are widespread about the true meaning of sports betting odds. Our goal will be to cut through the clutter, and get to the truth.

College football starts this week, so our first look will be at the odds to win the 2009 National Championship.

To start, here are the Top 10 teams with the best chance to win it all according to Vegas:

#1) USC Trojans: 12.5%
#2) Ohio State Buckeyes: 11.5%
#3) Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5%
#4) Florida Gators: 9%
#5) Oklahoma Sooners: 8%
#6) Missouri Tigers: 3.5%
#7) West Virginia Mountaineers: 3.5%
#8) LSU Tigers: 2.5%
#9) Texas Longhorns: 2.5%
#10) Clemson Tigers: 2.5%

Coin-Flip Debate of the Week:
Who has a better chance to win it all: this group of five teams (USC, Ohio St., Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma) or every other team in the nation? Vegas says the odds are exactly even! Who would you take?

Overrated Team:
Kansas, ranked #13 in the USA Today poll, but only given the 25^th best chance to win it all (less than 1% chance).

Underrated Team:
Florida St, unranked in the USA Today poll, yet given the 17^th best chance to win it all by Vegas.

Should Cinderella Buy a Dress?
For those hoping against hope for your underdog team to win it all, it�s interesting to note that Vegas says only 19 teams have better than a 100-1 shot to be National Champions.

Wins, losses, and injuries will change the NCAA Football odds each week. I�ll be checking in all season with the most interesting adjustments. Next week, True Vegas Odds will breakdown Super Bowl XLIII.

Questions? You can email me personally at: RJBell@pregame.com

Vegas and Packers Disagree About Favres Impact

RJ_Bell — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 04:10:00 GMT

Jets odds improve immediately!

Las Vegas, Nevada (8/7/08) - The sports world has followed the saga of Brett Favres return to the NFL. Now, RJ Bell of Pregame.com reveals how his trade to the Jets has significantly affected New Yorks Las Vegas odds this season.

Prior to the trade, the Jets were 40-1 to win the Super Bowl meaning that $100 bet on the Jets would have won $4,000. After the trade, the odds moved immediately to 30-1, reducing the payoff by 25%.

Prior to the trade, the Jets were projected to win 7 games. After the trade, the projection on New Yorks wins was increased by 1.5 games to 8.5. Its interesting to not that if the Jets play to projection, they would still likely not make the playoffs.

Prior to the trade, the Jets Week 1 match-up at Miami had New York as a 2.5-point favorite. After the trade, the point spread moved to Jets minus 3.

"Las Vegas is saying that Brett Favre is still a difference maker. The Packers disagreed. When in doubt its smart to assume Vegas is right," said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For follow-up questions or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured in the national media over 100 times, including CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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Toledo Basketball Point Shaving: Behind the Numbers!

RJ_Bell — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 01:34:00 GMT

How many basketball games are really fixed?

Las Vegas, Nevada (8/6/08) - Former Toledo basketball player Sammy Villegas has been charged with point-shaving. The indictment references games from the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons. A closer look at the numbers tells a fuller story.The main game in question was played between Toledo and Central Michigan on February 4, 2006. Toledo was a 15-point favorite, and won the game by 16 to just barely cover the point-spread. Villegas played 21 minutes, taking only 1 shot the entire game and missing both his free throw attempts.

During the two seasons in question, Toledo basketball had a winning record (30 winners; 26 losers) against the Las Vegas point spread which would be surprising if rampant game fixing had occurred; by definition, a fixed game is when a player purposely plays poorly so his team loses against the betting spread.

If the allegations are true, this is one incident of many. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: Academic studies indicate that over 5% of college basketball teams favored by double digits engage in some form of corrupt game manipulation.

Of all teams in recent years, those Toledo basketball games had by far the strongest buzz around Vegas that something funny was going on, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

The case comes approximately 12 months after a Toledo football player was accused in a sports betting scheme, though the charges against him were later dropped. RJ Bell of Pregame.com widely reported that during the 2005 Toledo football regular season, SEVEN games had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those seven teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 7 of 7 times on games involving Toledo; the odds of that happening randomly were 128 to 1 against.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For complete game-by-game details, follow-up questions, or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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99.9% Chance Something Funny About NBA Ref Foster

RJ_Bell — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:25:00 GMT

Update: Big Money was 10-0 in Accused Refs Games

Las Vegas, Nevada (7/21/08) RJ Bell of Pregame.com reported last week that big money bettors won 7 of 7 times in games refereed by Scott Foster during the period under investigation. Now, with added information provided by an NBA insider, a comprehensive list of games refereed by Scott Foster reveals even stronger evidence of wrong-doing.

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, 10 games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those 10 teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 10 of 10 times on Fosters games; the odds of that happening randomly are greater than 1000 to 1 against!

Stats alone should not convict, but when big money bettors win 10 straight times on a supposed 50/50 event, the odds are over 99.9% against that being just a coincidence, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

One of the new games particularly stands out: January 12, 2007 Rockets played at Denver; Houston opened a 1-point favorite and was bet up to minus 3; the Rockets won by 4, holding a 28-to-17 free-throw edge over the home team Nuggets.

Also of note is the number of games refereed by Foster and Donaghy that resulted in big line moves. Ten of 62 games involving Foster during the period under investigation had line moves of 2 points or more (16% of games). Eight of 73 games refereed by Donaghy during 06-07 had line moves of 2 points or more (11%) of games. Combined, the two questionable referees had big line moves in 13% of their games. A random sample of the first 100 NBA games of December 2007 resulted in only 6% of games having a line move of 2 points or more. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: Donaghy and Fosters games had big line moves over double as often as a random sample of NBA games.

Two of the original seven games stand out: On January 19, 2007 the Kings opened as a 1.5-point favorites at Boston; betting on Sacramento moved the line to -4.5. Kings won by 5, shooting 25 free throws, versus only 14 free throws for the home team Celtics. On March 20, 2007 the Nuggets opened as 2.5-point underdogs at New Jersey. Denver was bet so heavily, they closed as 1-point favorites. Denver won by 4, shooting 32 free throws versus only 22 for the home team Nets.

In prior reporting widely carried by the national media, RJ Bell of Pregame.com uncovered that big-money bettors won 15 straight lopsidedly bet games refereed by Tim Donaghy during the 2006-2007 season.

Inside the numbers of this study: Teams bet in a disproportionate fashion typically win only around 50% against the Las Vegas line. Wins and losses determined against the opening number. The time frame considered: Opening Day 2006 through March 31, 2007.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For complete game-by-game details, follow-up questions, or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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Big Money UNDEFEATED in Accused Ref's Games

RJ_Bell — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:00:00 GMT

Statistics indicate that NBA Referee Scott Foster Affected Games

Las Vegas, Nevada (7/15/08) News reports have revealed that NBA referee Scott Foster was involved in over 130 suspicious phone calls with disgraced ref Tim Donaghy. An examination by RJ Bell of Pregame.com of betting patterns in Scott Fosters games raises even more questions.

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, seven games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those seven teams were undefeated against Vegas meaning that the big-money gamblers won a 7 of 7 times on Fosters games; the odds of that happening randomly are less than 1%.Statistics alone cannot convict, but its certainly noteworthy that seven times in Fosters games one team was bet extremely heavily, and all seven times that team won, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Two of those seven games stand out: On January 19, 2007 the Kings opened as a 1.5 favorites at Boston; betting on Sacramento moved the line to -4.5. Kings won by 5, shooting 25 free throws, versus only 14 free throws for the home team Celtics. On March 20, 2007 the Nuggets opened as 2.5 point underdogs at New Jersey. Denver was bet so heavily, they closed as 1 point favorites. Denver won by 4, shooting 32 free throws versus only 22 for the home team Nets.

In prior reporting widely carried by the national media, RJ Bell of Pregame.com uncovered that big-money bettors won 15 straight lopsidedly bet games refereed by Tim Donaghy during the 2006-2007 season.

Inside the numbers of this study: Teams bet in a disproportionate fashion typically win only around 50% against the Las Vegas line. Wins and losses determined against the opening number. The time frame considered: Opening Day 2006 through March 31, 2007.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For complete game-by-game details, follow-up questions, or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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New Math Supports NBA in Game 7 Scandal

RJ_Bell — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 16:05:00 GMT

Updated Math Refutes Donaghys Claim

Las Vegas, Nevada (6/17/08) Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy has accused the NBA of manipulation of game results; the NBA has denied the charge. Recently, RJ Bell of Pregame.com released statistics making the case that there has been an abnormal number of Game 7s in the NBA Playoffs recently. Considering additional statistical factors, it can now be concluded that the percentage of actual Game 7s is close to the number of expected Game 7s thus supporting the NBA and refuting Donaghys claim.

The key variable in Game 7 analysis is how evenly matched the teams are. A related factor is the home/away split of the Series. When the assumption is made that the favored team will win 70% of games at home, and 40% on the road, the expected number of Game 7s is 26%. The percentage of actual Game 7 in non-first round Series since 2000 is exactly 26%. With reasonable home/away win rate assumptions, the number of NBA Game 7s is in the range of what one would expect, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com

If the assumption of the favorites win rate goes up, the number of expected Game 7s go down. The prior statistical analysis assumed a higher win rate for the favorite, but collaboration with other experts has lead to the conclusion that the numbers above are the best possible estimates.

Why consider non-first round Series only? Two reasons: A) First round Series were only five games before 2003. B) If the league did attempt to extend a Series for financial gain, the gain, and thus the temptation, would have been much less in the first round.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. RJ Bell is available for any follow-up questions or media appearances at: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

Math Evidence Backs Donaghys Claim of Game 7 Bias

RJ_Bell — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 07:29:00 GMT

Statistical verdict: 44% MORE Game 7s than expected!

Las Vegas, Nevada (6/11/08) Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy has accused the NBA of manipulation of game results in order to boost ticket sales and television ratings. Commissioner David Stern has called the allegations baseless. But statistical analysis by RJ Bell of Pregame.com supports the claim that an abnormal percentage of NBA playoff Series are extended to seven games.

Mathematics estimate (formula below) that a NBA Playoff series will go the full seven games approximately 18% of the time. Since 2000, a surprisingly large 26% of non-first round NBA Series have extended to the maximum seven games. Thats 44% more often than expected. Thats 16 of 62 Series when only 11 would have been expected. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: The odds of this increase happening randomly are less than 1%, approximately 180 to 1.

Why consider non-first round Series only? Two reasons: A) First round Series were only five games before 2003. B) If the league did attempt to extend a Series for financial gain, the gain, and thus the temptation, would have been much less in the first round.

Math behind 18%? Assume the average favorite has a 60% chance to win the Series (sometimes the favorite will have a better chance than that, sometimes worse; 60% is a solid average estimate). The odds of a series extending to 7 games is: P(favorite winning at least 4 of 7 games) + P(underdog winning at least 4 of 7 games) P(favorite sweeping 4 ) P(underdog sweeping 4) P(favorite winning exactly 4 of 5) - P(underdog winning exactly 4 of 5) - P(favorite winning exactly 4 of 6) - P(underdog winning exactly 4 of 6).

44% more Game 7s than expected clearly supports Tim Donaghys claim that the NBA Playoffs are officiated with the agenda of extending Series as long as possible.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. RJ Bell is available for any follow-up questions or media appearances at: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

Read updated math that looks at this matter from a different perspective.

PRESS: Pregame and RJ Bell on CNBC.com

karinotvery — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 19:28:00 GMT

On Friday, May 30, 2008, Pregame and RJ Bell were quoted in a CNBC article about L.A. Lakers back up guard Sasha Vujacic's last-minute shot at the end of their series with the Spurs swinging $100 million dollars in bets.

To read the full article, click here.

PRESS: Pregame mentioned in Las Vegas newspapers

karinotvery — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 18:45:00 GMT

On Friday May 23, 2008, Pregame.com was featured in both the Las Vegas Sun and Las Vegas Review-Journal newspapers covering the NBA referee scandal involving Tim Donaghy.

To see the Las Vegas Review Journal article, click here.

To see the Las Vegas Sun article, click here.

New Jersey Fights for Legal Sports Betting

RJ_Bell — Tue, 27 May 2008 18:09:00 GMT

A New Jersey senator is pledging to fight federal restricts of legalized sports gambling. As reported by the Associated Press, Sen. Raymond Lesniak has asked Gov. Jon S. Corzine to file suit declaring the federal law an interstate commerce violation. "If it chooses not to take up this cause, I will file suit myself on behalf of plaintiffs with standing to challenge the federal law," said Sen. Lesniak (D-Union).

Senator Lesniak, a well-regarded attorney, spoke of discrimination against New Jersey, and also spoke about his state being treated like second class citizens. Federal law currently allows for sports betting in only four states (Nevada, Oregon, Delaware, Montana).

In another example of a strong growth trend toward legalized sports betting, the Delaware House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday that would allow betting on pro and college sports teams (Delaware schools exempted).

The emergence off slot parlors in New York, Pennsylvania, and Delaware combined with the soft economy have hurt Atlantic Citys business. Revenues from April of this year were down 7.9% compared to 2007.

Many in the state of New Jersey believe that sports betting is the answer not just for the direct revenue generated, but also for the attraction to the casinos sports betting exerts. A player stopping by to bet a game is inclined to play poker, the tables, the machines, or maybe have a meal.

Linda Kassekert, chairwoman of New Jerseys Casino Control Commission, was non-committal on the issue, but was confident the commission could regulate sports betting if approved.

Publicly, the sports leagues are against legalization. The National Gaming Impact Study Commission estimated that over 380 billion dollars a year is bet on sports. Less than 1% of that number occurs legally in Nevada.

Clearly, the numbers prove beyond a doubt that sports betting is not controlled by criminalization; a fact that begs the question: Why not regulate and tax it? A question more and more politicians are asking publicly.

photo attribution

An Estimated 40 College Football & Basketball Games Were Fixed This Year!

RJ_Bell — Tue, 27 May 2008 06:22:00 GMT

Yes, you read the title right: Basic statistical analysis concludes that approximately 40 college football and basketball games were NOT played fair & square during the prior 12 months.

Exactly how was this number calculated?

The Pregame.com staff estimates that 700 football games and 3300 basketball games were available to be bet on this past season (only games that can be bet are worth fixing). That number could vary slightly due to some games being offered for betting online, but not in Las Vegas. The 4000 total is a conservative estimate.

Justin Wolfers, a professor at the Wharton School of Business, studied 44,120 games over the course of 16 years and concluded through use of advanced statistics that almost 500 games, or approximately 1% of all college basketball games have historically involved gambling-related corruption.

When asked in a 2003 NCAA Survey, over 2% of Mens Division I basketball players reported either having taken money for playing poorly or having knowledge of teammates who had done so. Undoubtedly not everyone taking part in game fixing will admit to it on a survey, strengthening the case that a 1% estimate of corrupt games is, if anything, potentially too low.

Professional games are much less likely to involve point shaving than college games, due to the simple fact that the pro players are for the most part millionaires, and not susceptible to bribery.

The case could reasonably be made that a football game is harder to fix (due to more players on the field, meaning any one player is less significant to the games outcome).

The key concept, though, does not require agreement on the exact number of games. Instead of debating decimal places, our attention should be placed squarely on the fact that many more games than the average fan would ever suspect are corrupt, and admitting that fact is the first step to improving the problem.

40 fixed college games last year alone! And most likely there'll be 40 next year and the next. I wonder how many of them I watched? How many my favorite team played in? How many I bet on?

Top 10 Biggest Gambling Scandals of All-Time

RJ_Bell — Tue, 27 May 2008 04:48:00 GMT

With seemingly never-ending revelations in the Tim Donaghy betting scandal, it's important to gain perspective on just how big this story is relative to the biggest gambling scandals of all-time.

Top 5 Game-Fixing Related Betting Scandals:

5) Connie Hawkins (1959-61)
Thirty-seven players from 22 schools were implicated in point-shaving scandals, including New York playground legend Connie Hawkins, who was named to the Top 10 High School Athletes Ever by ESPN. Despite never being charged, Hawkins was expelled from the University of Iowa, blackballed from the NBA, and was relegated to touring with the Harlem Globetrotters.

4) Tulane Basketball (1985)
John Hot Rod Williams was arrested in March of 1985, indicted on sports bribery and conspiracy. The case ended in mistrial, and was never retried. Four Tulane starters were suspected for point-shaving. Two of those players were granted immunity to testify, detailing payoffs made in cash and cocaine. Tulane shut down its basketball program (not resuming till 1989). Hot Rod went on to a 13 year NBA career.

3) The GoodFellas Fix
Henry Hill, played by Ray Liotta in the Martin Scorsese movie, worked with other mob members to fix nine Boston College basketball games. Player Rick Kuhn was sentenced to 10 years in prison the most ever for point-shaving.

2) College Basketball Point-Shaving (1951)
Between 1947 and 1951, 35 players conspired to fix 86 college basketball games. 14 gamblers were convicted. A number of New York City schools were involved; basketball was never the same in the Big Apple again. Kentucky, which won NCAA Titles in 1948, 1949, and 1951, received the first "Death Penalty" in NCAA history.

1) Chicago White Sox (1919)Known forever as the "Black Sox" - the successful effort to fix the World Series was dramatized in the movie Eight Men Out. "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, and seven other members of the team were given lifetime suspensions from baseball. Jackson's career batting average of .356 is the third highest in the history of baseball.

Top 5 Non Game-Fixing Betting Scandals:

5) Rick Tocchet (2006)
Assistant coach for the hockeys Phoenix Coyotes, Tocchet was accused of financing a national gambling ring involving half-dozen NHL players betting on pro and college sports (but not hockey). Legend Wayne Gretzky was mentioned in the initial press reports, but was never connected to the misconduct. Tocchet plead guilty to the charges, and was sentenced to two years probation.

4) Leo Durocher (1947)
The Brooklyn Dodgers manger was suspended for the 1947 season for consorting with gamblers, and thus engaging in conduct detrimental to baseball. Durocher is said to have run rigged craps games that scammed at least one active ballplayer out of large sums of money. 1947 was Jackie Robinson's historic rookie season, and the Dodgers lost a 7-game World Series to the Yankees that same year.

3) Art Schlichter
A four year starting quarterback at Ohio State, Schlichters career and life have been destroyed by compulsive gambling. He was picked 4^th in the 1982 NFL Draft by the Colts. First suspended for gambling in 1983, he was released in 1985, and never played in the NFL again. Schlichter has served significant jail time, admitting to over 20 felonies and stealing over 1.5 million dollars over the years to feed his addiction.

2) Paul Hornung and Alex Karras (1963)
Fined and suspended for a full season by the NFL for betting on their own games. Hornung won the 1961 MVP playing for the Packers, and Karras was an All-Pro DT for the Lions. Back playing in 1964, Karras refused when an official asked him to call the pregame coin toss: "I'm sorry, sir," he said. "I'm not permitted to gamble."

1) Pete Rose (1989)
The all-time MLB hit leader was placed on baseballs permanently ineligible list for gambling on sports (barring his inclusion into the Hall of Fame). He denied betting on baseball, but in 2004 admitted to betting on (never against) the Cincinnati Reds while their manager. The issue of his reinstatement and election into the Hall of Fame remains a highly debated in the baseball world.

Where does Tim Donaghy and the NBA referee scandal fit into all of this? The key is whether he acted alone, or whether the corruption was widespread . . . We will be watching . . .