The "National Football Post" asked me for an article on game fixing, and I was happy to oblige such a respected website.
A question being asked is: was the Steelers game "fixed" against the Chargers Sunday?
The odds are overwhelming that it was not, but the NFL and all sports leagues need to understand why a majority of fans seem to think it was.
Sports betting is bigger than anyone thinks it is. 380 BILLION dollars a year is gambled worldwide according to published estimates. If all sports bets were pooled, the bettors could buy every major pro sports franchise in existence. And that's only from one year's wagers. That ownership group could show Mark Cuban a thing or two about risk taking!
Yet, the leagues want to ignore this reality. It is one thing to actively discourage betting; but to ignore a multi-billion dollar fact is dangerous.
With so much money at stake, corruption is likely to occur. Indeed, if United States Congressmen are unable to resist bribes without fail, how can we expect college kids with no sports future to do so? It's all about economics - pro athletes are much less likely to fix a game - while college athletes and game officials are more likely to do so.
How likely? Well, numerous academic studies - including one conducted by the NCAA itself (2003 National Study of Collegiate Sports Wagering) - conjecture that approximately 1% of college games are in some way corrupt. That number means that there's something funny about dozens of college games a year!
In my opinion, if the sports leagues took an honest position that they would do everything possible to prevent corruption and admit that prevention cannot be surefire, fans would respond enthusiastically, as that is exactly what the fans believe! But the leagues do themselves a disservice when they claim to be incorruptible, and the fans rightfully believe that to be a lie. After the Steelers game, 80% of the posts at the Pregame.com forum claimed the game was fixed. In today's environment, whenever fans see something funny, it's considered proof of the big lie told by the professional sports leagues.
Consider the response to Sunday's game. The NFL partner networks initially ignored the matter. Then the outlets reported the story, some in snickering fashion, many using my estimate of $100 million bet on the game. "No way betting is that big," cried those with no idea. However, I could make the case - backed by hard data - that double that amount was bet on the game.
Then the media started calling Vegas home of some of the most knowledgeable sportsbook pros on the planet. Yet many of them have the same agenda as the sports leagues, which is to avoid rocking the boat. If these outlets spoke with complete candor, business might be disrupted. Although most technically tell the truth to the media, it is done with an effort to minimize possible scandal.
My allegiance is to the sports bettor - which means debunking the big lie. Funny thing, a deeper conversation would have revealed the Steelers game to be less likely to have been fixed. Game fixers are bettors, so typically fixed games have a lopsided amount of money on the winning side. The Steelers got approximately 66% of the money, but the questionable calls all went the Chargers' way. Encouraging conversation could have brought that fact into the open.