Updated Math Refutes Donaghys Claim
Las Vegas, Nevada (6/17/08) Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy has accused the NBA of manipulation of game results; the NBA has denied the charge. Recently, RJ Bell of Pregame.com released statistics making the case that there has been an abnormal number of Game 7s in the NBA Playoffs recently. Considering additional statistical factors, it can now be concluded that the percentage of actual Game 7s is close to the number of expected Game 7s thus supporting the NBA and refuting Donaghys claim.
The key variable in Game 7 analysis is how evenly matched the teams are. A related factor is the home/away split of the Series. When the assumption is made that the favored team will win 70% of games at home, and 40% on the road, the expected number of Game 7s is 26%. The percentage of actual Game 7 in non-first round Series since 2000 is exactly 26%. With reasonable home/away win rate assumptions, the number of NBA Game 7s is in the range of what one would expect, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com
If the assumption of the favorites win rate goes up, the number of expected Game 7s go down. The prior statistical analysis assumed a higher win rate for the favorite, but collaboration with other experts has lead to the conclusion that the numbers above are the best possible estimates.
Why consider non-first round Series only? Two reasons: A) First round Series were only five games before 2003. B) If the league did attempt to extend a Series for financial gain, the gain, and thus the temptation, would have been much less in the first round.
MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. RJ Bell is available for any follow-up questions or media appearances at: rjbell@pregame.com
About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.