Matty O'Shea

Matty's Top 5 Spoiler Teams to Back with your Final-Stretch MLB Picks

2008-09-05T23:20:00Z

Grady Sizemore and the Tribe will try to knock out their AL Central rivals

I realize many of you could care about baseball this time of year, but don't tell that to bettors who have been fading the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers lately.

The National League Central rivals combined to lose nine straight games at home as big chalk earlier this week, proving there will be some outstanding value down the stretch going against teams like them who are battling for the postseason along with others (i.e. the Los Angeles Angels) who will almost definitely rest players with a playoff spot already secure.

Following is my list of Top 5 spoiler teams for the final few weeks of the regular season:

New York Yankees - if you already know you won't make the playoffs, why not try to ruin a shot for your rivals?
Detroit Tigers - they still have a powerful offense and can out-slug most teams, so don't be surprised if they make life tough on both the Twins and White Sox the next couple weekends
Cleveland Indians - this team was one game away from the World Series a year ago, and now they have a shot to keep both pairs of Sox out of the postseason
Colorado Rockies - the defending NL champs play nine straight games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks over the last three weekends
Houston Astros - the hottest team in baseball will have one more shot at the Cubs next weekend at home

Let me know your thoughts on these teams and tell me who else you are betting down the stretch with your MLB picks...

2008 NFL Picks: Win Total Best Bets from JB Sports

2008-09-04T21:31:00Z

JB Sports likes Reggie Bush and the Saints to challenge the Cowboys in 2008

2008 NFL Picks: Win Total Best Bets from JB Sports

By Curry Bagwell/JB Sports
Pregame Pros Handicapper

Saints OVER 9/-135

Saints were picked by many to win the NFC last year but started 0-4 and injuries to McAllister, Bush and Meachem led to a sub-par 7-9 finish. This year they get basically two #1 picks added in Sedrick Ellis and last year's #1 pick WR Robert Meachem who never played a down a year ago. They trade for TE Jeremy Shockey which puts their offense at the top of the league. Shockey's arrival frees up Marques Colston who had 98 receptions a year ago and is becoming one of the NFC's best WRs. Can you imagine a passing game with Shockey at TE, Reggie Bush in the slot and wide outs Colston, Meachem, and Devery Henderson? Then you have a general at QB who is the best at distributing the ball without turning it over. This is an era where offenses, especially in the NFC, struggle to score and that gives the Saints a huge advantage.

The defense figures to be improved with the additions of Ellis, Randall Gay, and Jonathan Vilma. The schedule is a major handicapping factor and if you like the Saints over, it is almost too good to be true. First of all, they get the AFC West this year which is the weakest division in the AFC. Secondly, they play only Washington in the NFC East which is the toughest division in the NFC and Washington is the weakest team in that division. Add to that, they play Atlanta (who is starting a rookie QB) twice and the fact that their bye week is in the ninth week (which is the perfect week to have a bye) and you have a schedule made to order for the Saints.

Oakland Raiders OVER 6/-125

When handicapping NFL pre-season totals, you have to realize that the NFL wants parity. They make that possible through the draft, scheduling and the salary cap. Only a handful of teams stay at the top or at the bottom for a long period of time. The secret to being successful picking pre-season totals is anticipating which teams are about to make that forward move. That is where I am with the Raiders and the team that they will have on the field this year. The draft has provided them two players in QB JaMarcus Russell and RB Darren McFadden who have unlimited potential. Russell has had his year to get mentally prepared for the job. He was physically prepared for the NFL his freshmen year at LSU. He was a pro QB playing a college game. He never was able to execute the running game at LSU, but excelled at the two-minute offense. His first game as a freshman, he entered the game two scores behind in the 4th quarter vs. Oregon St. and rallied them to a 22-21 overtime win. He did that time and time again in his three year career at LSU. He is such a physical presence in the pocket that he can wait until a receiver gets open to release the ball. He simply doesn't feel pressure like other QBs do. His strong arm enables him to throw that pass between LBs and DBs that other QBs can't throw. He can throw the deep pass 75 yards down the field which gives his WRs additional room. These factors all make him an exceptional two-minute QB and you know how many NFL games are decided in the last two minutes. He will pull out at least two games a year. He has done it his entire career.

RB McFadden will benefit greatly from the respect defenses eventually will give Russell. With no passing game at Arkansas, defenses played seven or eight men in the �box� trying to slow down McFadden. With Russell at QB, defenses will have to defend a 40 yard field and play it �straight up� vs. McFadden which will give him every chance to have an Adrian Peterson type of season.

Defensively, the Raiders brought in CB DeAngelo Hall and safety Gibril Wilson. The strength of their defense was already the secondary and these additions will make that unit even stronger while their young front seven matures. By finishing 4th in the AFC West last year, they get the last place schedule that goes with it. Buffalo, Miami, Houston, Baltimore and the Jets are winnable AFC games. They play the NFC South this year and three of those teams have questions. Six games in their own division, the AFC West, doesn't hurt either as most consider it the weakest division in the AFC. Denver is down and the Raiders easily could finish second in the division behind SD and ahead of Denver and KC.

> Buy JB's NFL picks this season & get his college football picks FREE!

Betting public loves the defending Super Bowl champion Giants

2008-09-04T21:18:00Z

Are you ready bettors? It all starts tonight, as the NFL officially kicks off the new season with a Thursday nighter, followed by a full Sunday of action, with the exclamation point to Week 1 coming as a Monday night double header.

It's a good old NFC East battle that gets it all started in the Big Apple with the Washington Redskins visiting the defending champion New York Giants.

If being in the cross hairs of every other team in the NFL wasn't enough for the Giants, they will be without defensive spiritual leader Michael Strahan, who retired, and 2007 team sack leader Osi Umenyiora, who blew out his left knee.

The Giants are currently a 4.5-point favorite, as they have steadily been receiving more of the betting volume. As of Thursday morning, SPORTSBETTING.COM is reporting 71% of the money has come in on the home side

This line opened at -3.5 earlier in the spring and slowly moved up to -4 as the training camps progressed, before recently hitting 4.5. However, despite the Umenyiora injury, a major blow, bettors still don't like the underdog.

Backing up a Giant play are some of the numbers, including the fact that Super Bowl champs are 6-0-1 against the spread in the past seven years in their first game of the season. Along those same lines, since the NFL switched to giving the champs the season opener on Thursday nights, they are 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread under the bright lights.

Looking at the total, these two have been playing to an "Under" trend. The "Under" has cashed the last five times they met.

- Looking at other matchups this week:

If you said a tilt between a team that went 1-15 last season and one that went 4-12 would be one of the focal points of Sunday's slate of games, you might receive some bewildered looks.

But with QB Brett Favre making his regular season debut with the New York Jets, former Jets' pivot Chad Pennington now calling signals for Miami, the Week 1 matchup between the J-E-T-S and the Dolphins suddenly becomes very intriguing.

The Jets have always enjoyed their trips to Miami, as they boast a 16-4 mark against the spread in their last 20 road games vs. the Dolphins.

The Jets, as a 3-point road favorite, are receiving slightly more attention from the betting public, as 56% of the money has come in on them.

- Two division rivalries close off Week 1 with the Minnesota Vikings playing the Favre-less Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos travelling to the Black Hole to play the Oakland Raiders.

Obviously, the big question on everyone's mind regarding this game is how the Packers will fair in the post Brett Favre era. Aaron Rodgers has been waiting for this chance since he was drafted, but the pressure of the fans and the franchise could get to him here in his first home start, under the Monday Night lights.
Green Bay is 0-5 against the spread the last five years in their 1st home game vs. a division opponent, and with the Favre shadow cast over Rodgers and the team, this is a tough spot.

The Pack are 2.5-point favorites, down from -3, as Minnesota money is showing up. The Total is 38. These two teams have gone Under in their last four consecutive games.

- Can Darren McFadden live up to all the hype he's gotten over the summer? Oakland has the youngest starting backfield in the league with JaMarcus Russell and McFadden and their first regular season game together on the big stage could bring a lot of nerves. Not only that, but Oakland is 0-6 against the spread on Monday nights, and are 2-13 against the spread in their last 15 home games against a divisional opponent.

Denver is listed as a 3-point road favorite for the Week 1 finale.

The long wait is over, the NFL is back.

Enjoy kick-off weekend.

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Matty's Musings for 9/3/08: Phone sex replaces Kevin Smith at Central Florida

2008-09-03T22:09:00Z

My Irish friend O'Leary continues to be the butt of jokes

This one must have slipped through the cracks, as I was almost positive Floridachad (our Florida college football picks insider) would have commented on this already. Instead, I get to tell you guys about this amusing tidbit from Tuesday's Central Florida football teleconference that was postponed due to "technical difficulties" (LOL):

"UCF's teleconference with Coach George O'Leary was canceled today and because school officials accidentally gave the number for a phone sex line instead of the teleconference number. When I dialed in, the voice on the other line said, 'Hi sexy, you've reached the one-on-one fantasy line.' I gasped, hung up and figured I must have dialed the wrong number. So, I checked the UCF news release and dialed again, but I got the same phone sex hotline complete with offers I can't really post on this blog."

I don't know about you, but I find this absolutely hilarious coming from a school that had arguably the best player in the country a year ago in current Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith and hired a head coach in O'Leary who lied on his resume in an effort to get the Notre Dame job. Now the Golden Knights are making headlines for a silly reason that has nothing to do with football heading into a big showdown with intrastate rival South Florida (-13.5 at Bookmaker - click here for the latest top offers).

I completely agree with Floridachad's analysis of the UCF-USF game along with the other big game in the Sunshine State, Miami at Florida. These games are ones you can just throw out the point spreads because the players on both sides will just want to pile on the points against each other because they involve personal rivalries that go all the way back to high school. The key point here being the fact that the reserves for both South Florida and Florida will be just as good as the starters for the opposition.

Keep an eye on the line movement for both of these games since they are currently sitting on key numbers. The favorites are definitely worth a serious look in each game.

College Football Picks: 2008 Heisman Top 10 rankings after Week 1

2008-09-03T17:26:00Z

2008 Heisman Trophy Top 10 Update after Week 1

By Larry Ness
Pregame Pros Handicapper

1) TIM TEBOW (Florida) Last Week:1. Tebow helped the Gators win the national title in his freshman year (2006), offering a "change of pace" to Florida's starting QB that year, Chris Leak. Tebow attempted just 33 passes in '06, throwing five TDs with only one INT. However, in a sign of things to come, ran 89 times for 469 yards (5.3 YPC) while scoring eight TDs. He led a young Florida team a 9-4 mark in 2007, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass (32) and run (23) for 20 TDs or more in the same season. He completed 66.9 percent of his 350 attempts, while throwing just six INTs (finished second in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 172.47). His 210 rushing attempts were more than double the number of any other player on the team, as he ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC). He set an NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB (23), an SEC record for TDs accounted for (55) and a school-record for total offense (4,181 yards). He accomplished all this despite suffering a bruised shoulder in the middle of the season and playing with a fractured right hand in Florida's regular season finale vs Florida St. The Gators opened the '08 season with an easy 56-10 win over Hawaii. The game was close in the beginning, as the Warriors only had five less offensive yards than the Gators in a scoreless first quarter. However, by the end of the third quarter, Florida owned a 56-0 lead. Tebow "hardly broke a sweat," completing 9-of-14 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown (no INTs). Meyer had said that Tebow is not expected to run as much this year and against the Rainbows, he rushed just nine times for 37 yards. It marked the first time he didn't have a rushing TD since 2006 but the Gators got a rushing TD from four different players plus added a 74-yard punt return TD and two interception TDs. Since Tebow is the 'defending champ,' I'll leave him No. 1 until I see what happens this coming Saturday when the Gators host the 'Canes, who have beaten them SIX straight times.

2) PAT WHITE (West Virginia) Last Week: 2. White entered this year having won Big East POY the last two seasons, with 4,207 career passing yards (64.2 percent), 35 TDs and 16 INTs. He's added 3,506 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and scored 39 rushing TDs, topping 100 yards in 15 games. White's also a perfect 3-0 in bowl games in his career, leading West Va past Georgia 38-35 in the Sugar Bowl in his freshman season and beating Ga Tech (also 38-35) in the Gator Bowl as a sophomore. His three-year bowl record is very impressive, as he's completed 30-of-48 passes (62.5 percent) for 427 yards (5 TDPs / 0 INTs), while rushing 66 times for 372 yards (65.6 YPC) and one TD. West Va opened the '08 season with a home date against Villanova. The Wildcats offered little resistance to White and Co, as the Mountaineers won 48-21. White had 271 total yards (208 pass yards / 63 rush yards) and now has 7,984 yards of total offense, passing Marc Bulger for the most total yards in school history. He completed 25-of-33 passes with five TDs and just one INT, while rushing nine times without a score. White had never before thrown more than two TD passes in a single game, so his five-TD effort was impressive, even if it came against 'Nova. White became the fourth QB in West Va history to throw for TDs in a single game (Brad Lewis last accomplished the feat in 2000). As I mentioned in my Heisman preview, West Virginia has a realistic shot at going unbeaten in '08, which sure wouldn't hurt White's chances of winning the Heisman. West Va travels to Greenville, North Carolina this Saturday, to play East Carolina. The Mountaineers are 17-2 all-time vs the Pirates, winning by an average score of 33-15. However, East Carolina just upset preseason No. 17 Virginia Tech this past Saturday in Charlotte, 27-22.

3) CHASE DANIEL (Missouri) Last Week: 3. Daniels led the Tigers to an 8-5 record in 2006, just the second time Missouri had won eight games in the previous 25 seasons. However, Daniel was just "warming up." He was terrific last year, topping 300 yards passing eight times in 14 games (owns 12, 300-yard games in his career), with a career-high 421 in a 55-10 with at Colorado on November 3 in which he also matched a career single-game high of five TD passes. He finished the season by completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,306 yards while throwing 33 TDs and only 11 INTs. However, Daniel and the Tigers lost twice to Oklahoma in '07, 41-31 in Norman on October 13 and 38-17 in the Big 12 championship game on December 1. In those two losses, Daniel threw just one TD pass and was intercepted three times. However, the team's 12-2 finish after a 38-7 win over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, allowed the Tigers to finish No. 4 in the final AP poll, the school's highest-ever final ranking. Missouri is ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll (also the highest ranking ever for the school) and the good news is, the Sooners are not on the Tigers' regular season schedule this year. Missouri opened last year with a hard fought 40-34 win over Illinois in St Louis and last Saturday, beat preseason No. 20 Illinois 52-42 in another St Louis shootout (for the second straight year, the two teams combined for over 1,000 yards). Daniel saw a second quarter INT brought back for a TD which gave Illinois a 13-10 lead, but he settled down and finished the game with three TD passes, 323 yards passing (26-of-45) plus 46 yards rushing on nine attempts. It marked his 13th 300-yard passing game but arguably, Daniel was only the second-best QB on the field in this game. Illinois' Juice Williams was 26-of-42 for 451 yards and threw five TD passes (both career highs). Missouri plays its home opener on September 6, against Southeast Missouri.

4) CHRIS WELLS (Ohio State) Last Week: 4. I ranked Wells as the top RB on my preseason list (one spot ahead of Georgia's Knowshon Moreno), mainly because I believe the Buckeyes have a much easier overall schedule than the Bulldogs. Wells ran for 576 yards as a freshman (2006) and followed with an impressive 1,609 yards last year as a sophomore (averaged 5.9 YPC and scored 15 rushing TDs). After not topping 100 yards in any game in '06, Wells topped the 100-yard mark nine times in 2007, including 221 yards at home vs Michigan State, gaining a school-record (which is obviously a career-high for Wells) 222 yards in the regular season finale at Michigan plus gaining 146 yards on 20 carries in the BCS title-game loss to LSU, where he set a BCS record for the longest TD run (65 yards) in that game's 10-year history. Wells accomplished all this, while suffering with bone spurs the entire year. If the Buckeyes can win at USC on September 13 (no small feat), Ohio State just could reach the BCS championship game for the third consecutive year. If that's the case and Wells improves on last year's stats (which is hardly far-fetched), he's a legitimate Heisman threat. In Columbus last Saturday, Wells was off to a terrific start in Ohio State's 30th consecutive season opening victory, a 43-0 win over Youngstown State. However, Wells was hurt in the third quarter on a first and goal at the Youngstown State 2. His feet slipped underneath him as he planted to make a cut. He was helped off the field but later returned to the bench in the fourth quarter wearing a boot on his right foot. Wells ran for 111 yards on 13 carries (his 10th career 100-yard game), including a 43-yard touchdown run. As of Monday morning, the "Beanie watch" was still on for fans of the Buckeyes. If he's out for any significant time, or can't play at USC on September 13, his Heisman hopes are all but over. Ohio State hosts Ohio U this coming Saturday.

5) KNOWSHON MORENO (Georgia) Last Week: 5. After losing 35-14 in Knoxville to the Vols on October 6 of last year, the Bulldogs record was a disappointing 4-2. True freshman RB Knowshon Moreno was held to just 30 yards in 13 carries (2.3 per) in that game and had hardly resembled Jamaica's Usain Bolt, "coming out of the blocks!" However, the Bulldogs would not lose again, finishing the year with seven straight wins. Moreno turned into a star in the first five games of that season-ending run by Georgia, gaining 766 yards or 153.2 YPG. He finished his freshman season with 1,334 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and 14 TDs. Georgia finished the '07 season at 11-2, with a final ranking of No. 3 in the coaches' poll and No. 2 in the AP poll. To begin '08, the Bulldogs have opened as the No. 1 team in the nation in both the coaches' and AP preseason polls, marking first-time the school has topped either of those polls in the preseason. Georgia is seeking its first national title since Herschel Walker's freshman year (1980) and Moreno is seeking the school's third Heisman (Frank Sinkwich won in 1942 and Herschel in 1982). Georgia made it 9-0 for head coach Mark Richt in home openers, beating Georgia Southern 45-21 this past Saturday. Amazingly, the Bulldogs' win snaps a three-game losing streak by AP No. 1-ranked teams. QB Matthew Stafford threw for a career-high 275 yards with two touchdowns (13-of-21 and no INTs), while Moreno carried just eight times for a mere 59 yards but scored three TDs, as the Bulldogs scored the game's first 38 points. I didn't make any major changes from my preseason top-10, giving everyone at least one "mulligan." Georgia hosts Central Michigan this Saturday and its prolific QB, Dan LeFevour.

6) GRAHAM HARRELL (Texas Tech) Last Week: 6. Harrell began the '06 season (his sophomore year) at Texas Tech as the school's starting QB. It marked the first time since 2001 that the Red Raiders did not open the year with a senior at that position. All Harrell did in '06 was complete 412-of-617 passes (66.8 percent) for 4,555 yards with 38 TDs and 11 INTs. All he did last year as a junior, was to improve on those numbers! Harrell completed 512-of-713 passes in '07 (71.8 percent) for 5,705 yards with 48 TDs and 14 INTs. His 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State was the fourth-highest single-game mark in NCAA history and by year's end he had become just the fifth QB in NCAA history with two 4,000-yard seasons on his resume. If he continues to improve, what can we expect this year? The Red Raiders are really a well-kept secret, as Texas Tech enters the '08 season with a run of 13 consecutive winning seasons (starting in 1994). The Big 12 was formed the following year and Tech is the only Big 12 team to post a winning season in each of that conference's 12 years. Now here's the rub. I earlier mentioned that Harrell had 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State on September 22 (also had five TDs and no INTs) but I didn't mention that the Red Raiders lost that game, 49-45. Tech stood at 6-1 through seven games last year but then Harrell had back-to-back four-interception games at Missouri (a 41-10 loss) and at home to Colorado (a 31-26 loss as a 13 1/2-point favorite). I stated in my preseason top-10 that Harrell would undoubtedly put up huge numbers again this year and he wasted little time proving me right (like I was going out on a limb?). Texas Tech's pass-happy offense was in midseason form against an overmatched Eastern Washington team last Saturday, winning 49-24. Harrell completed 43-of-58 passes for 536 yards with two TDs and one INT plus also ran for a score. He connected with eight different receivers, and his 536-yard effort gives him 23 games of 300 passing yards of more, including 15 games of 400-plus. Harrell now owns 91 career TD passes. Six players have throw at least 100 career TDs all-time, with Colt Brennan topping the list with 131. Considering Harrell has thrown 86 TD passes the last two seasons (an average of 43 per), he's "right on pace" to own that record by year's end. Texas Tech visits Nevada this coming Saturday and watch out. Nevada is 19-5 SU in Reno since Chris Ault returned as head coach in 2004).

7) SAM BRADFORD (Oklahoma) Last Week: 7. Bob Stoops won a national title in just his second year as Oklahoma's head coach. In '08, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford will try to give his head coach a second title, in Bradford's second year in Norman. Bradford was spectacular as a red-shirt freshman last year, throwing for 3,121 yards (69.5 percent) with 36 TDs and eight INTs. His 36 TD passes were a new NCAA freshman single-season record and his QB rating of 176.52 led the nation last year. Bradford was brutal (8-of-19 with 112 yards / 1 TD and 2 INTs) in a 27-24 loss at Colorado (OU was favored by 23 points) on September 29 and at Texas Tech on November 17, he suffered a concussion very early (had attempted just three passes), as the Sooners lost their second regular season game of the year, 34-27. Bradford did come up big in Oklahoma's two wins over Missouri, completing 42-of-60 passes for 475 yards with four TDs and one INT, but he couldn't turn around Oklahoma's recent failures in BCS bowl games, as the Sooners were blown out 48-28 by West Va in the Fiesta Bowl, the school's fourth consecutive BCS bowl loss. Oklahoma's defense was the star last Saturday, limiting Chattanooga to just 36 yards of total offense (20 passing, 16 rushing) in a 57-2 win. Bradford went 17-of-22 for 183 yards with two TDs and no INTs, as Oklahoma extended CFB's longest active home winning streak to 19 straight. Oklahoma goes for its 20th straight home win this Saturday, when it hosts a Cincinnati team which was 11-3 last year and opened '08 with a 40-7 win over Eastern Kentucky.

8) MARK SANCHEZ (USC) Last Week: NR. My preseason top-10 listed QBs Todd Boeckman (Ohio State), Cullen Harper (Clemson) and Matthew Stafford (Georgia) in this slot, as all three were the starting QBs on teams destined for excellent seasons. While Boeckman and Stafford (as well as their teams) got off to solid starts last Saturday, Harper and Clemson "laid an egg," in a 34-10 loss to Alabama in Atlanta. Harper, who completed 20-of-34 passes for 188 yards without a TD and one INT, likely will not be mentioned in this column again. It didn't help him though, that the Tigers' highly-touted one-two RB punch of Davis and Spiller gained just 20 yards on eight carries. Playing QB for a national title contender is always a good way to get involved in the Heisman 'hunt' and after the season's first weekend, I'm moving USC's Mark Sanchez into my No. 8 spot. I mentioned in my Heisman preview that USC earned the moniker "Tailback U" when Garrett, OJ, White and Allen won Heismans from 1965-1981. Last Saturday in Charlottesville, four different USC tailbacks had scored a rushing TD by the end of the first half. However, USC's offensive star was Sanchez. Sanchez threw three TD passes in his first game as the Trojans' true No. 1 QB on Saturday, leading USC to a 52-7 victory against Virginia. Just more than three weeks removed from a dislocated kneecap that kept him out of practice until this week, Sanchez was 26-of-35 for 338 yards with three TDs and one INT. No. 3 USC is off this coming Saturday, giving the Trojans two weeks to prepare for No.2 Ohio State (with or without Wells?) on September 13.

9) JEREMY MACLIN Maclin (Missouri) Last Week: 9. Joining Maclin in the No. 9 spot last week were fellow WRs Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) and Percy Harvin (Florida). The trio were listed together as a tribute to the only three WRs to have ever won the Heisman. That group included Johnny Rodgers (Nebraska) in '72, Tim Brown (Notre Dame) in '87 and Desmond Howard (Michigan) in '91. The one thing all of these three winners had in common was their ability to return kicks. Well, advantage Maclin. First of all, Harvin sat out Florida's game with Hawaii, which obviously eliminated him. As for Crabtree, the nation's leading receiver in 2007 had a rather quiet game in Texas Tech's 49-24 win over Eastern Washington. He finished with 73 yards on nine catches, including a 4-yard TD in the first quarter. Crabtree had eight games of at least 10 catches last year, 12 games of 100-plus receiving yards and he opened the '07 season by catching 17 TD passes in his first six games. Now to Maclin. The sophomore was spectacular in Missouri's 52-42 win over Illinois last Saturday but like Ohio State's Wells, he got hurt (although it's not thought to be serious). With Missouri down 13-10 in the second quarter (after a Daniel INT was returned for a TD), Maclin returned the ensuing KO for a 99-yard TD, sparking the Tigers to a 21-0 run, which gave them a 31-13 halftime lead. Before leaving the game in the fourth quarter with a sprained left ankle, Jeremy Maclin had 206 all-purpose yards, including a 45-yd punt return and that 99-yd kickoff return for a TD. He only had four catches for 31 yards plus three runs for just two yards but those kick returns are the ones that make the "highlight reels." Missouri plays its home opener on September 6 against Southeast Missouri, so there is no reason for Maclin to "rush back" if he isn't 100 percent.

10) DAN LEFEVOUR (Central Michigan) Last week: 10. Here's what I wrote in my preseason poll about LeFevour. Now everyone outside of Mt. Pleasant, Michigan knows a player from the MAC can't win the Heisman. However, Chippewas fans will point out the similarities of Dan LeFevour's 2007 stats to that of Heisman winner Tim Tebow's. Tebow had a TD-to-INT ratio of 32-6 and LeFevour had one of 27-13. Tebow threw for 3,286 yards while completing 66.9 percent and LeFevour threw for 3,652 yards while completing 65.4 percent. Tebow ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC) with 23 TDs and Lefevour ran for 1,122 yards (6.0 YPC) with 19 TDs. Now all the Chippewas need to do is go 13-0 in the regular season (which would include a win in the MAC title game) and for LeFevour to greatly improve on his 2007 stats for him to even be considered as a Heisman finalist! The Chippewas opened the '08 season last Thursday (Aug 30), as Central Michigan won its season opener for the first time since 2002 with a 31-12 win over Eastern Illinois. LeFevour completed 21-of-31 for 217 yards with three TDs and no INTs, plus ran for 42 yards on 11 carries (no TDs). CMU travels to Athens the next two weeks. However, I think the Chippewa's may just find Athens, Georgia (this Saturday vs No. 1 Georgia) a bit more inhospitable than Athens, Ohio (vs Ohio U on September 13)? Check back next week to see what happened.

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2008 College Football Betting Week 1 in Review: By the Numbers

2008-09-02T21:22:00Z

Dave Wannstedt cost Matty O'Shea and other bettors money on Saturday

Despite the rule changes I mentioned in last week's blog, bettors saw nearly even results on totals in Week 1 of the college football season, as the UNDER ended up going 21-19-1 in the 41 lined games. Following are some other interesting numbers from Week 1:

Favorites went 24-16-1 ATS (59%) in Week 1
Of the 16 underdogs that covered the spread, 11 won straight-up (69%)
Dogs went 3-1 SU on Sunday and Monday after favorites were 23-13-1 ATS (64%)

The Pac-10 definitely impressed me the most this past weekend, starting with Stanford's win over Oregon State on Thursday night. USC also looked better to me (along with some of you and the Associated Press) on Saturday in their 52-7 drubbing of Virginia on Saturday. Finally, UCLA's big upset of Tennessee on Sunday proved there could be more depth in the conference than most insiders originally thought.

While this is what stood out most in my mind from Week 1, feel free to chime in on your Week 1 opinions and don't miss Tommy Rider's thoughts either. I expect some of the totals to come down a bit in Week 2 and think we may see more value on dogs too.

Will any of this info impact your Week 2 colllege football picks?

2008 NFL Picks for the AFC: Who are you betting in each division?

2008-08-29T22:49:00Z

Is this the year LT and the Bolts get to the Super Bowl?

AFC Division Winning Propositions

By SPORTSBETTING.COM

'Twas the week before the NFL regular season and all through the land, bettors were waiting for kickoff so they could wager on some football.

Okay, poetry isn't our strength, but we are all eagerly awaiting the start of the NFL's Opening Kickoff on Thursday night, September 4.

The Washington Redskins travel to New York to play the defending champion Giants with a line on this one of the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.

But while there is a comprehensive Week 1 menu (as well as the final week of preseason), complete with regular lines and OVER/UNDER bets, futures and props are also available.

Among the offerings are options on which American Football Conference team will win the respective divisions.

AFC East

The New England Patriots are still the cream of the crop in the AFC East and arguably the conference in general.

SPORTSBETTING.COM has the Pats listed as a -900 to win their division this year. Despite a dismal record in the preseason (who cares in New England); speculation is that they're resting everyone for the start of the regular season anyways.

The Miami Dolphins, who are coming off a dreadful 1-15 season, and the Buffalo Bills probably won't mount much of a challenge this year, besides, the Pats are 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games against Miami and 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS against the Bills.

The only team in the AFC East who might have a shot (a long one though) at challenging the Pats is the New York Jets, who now have Brett Favre calling the signals.

In the last 10 games against the Jets, New England is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.

Besides division rivals, the Pats and teams from the AFC East will be matched with teams from the NFC West and New England has feasted on the likes of the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals going 9-1 SU and a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 games against these teams.

Will the Pats repeat as AFC East champions? It looks that way.

AFC South

Picking a team to win the AFC South is a little bit harder as there is more than one team talented enough to take the division, but Indianapolis is still the team to beat (currently -150 at SPORTSBETTING.COM).

Like the Pats' Tom Brady, Peyton Manning has seen little or no action in the preseason because of knee surgery in July, but Indy head coach Tony Dungy told the media that "he would be shocked" if Manning didn't play in Week 1. However, do not discount the fact the Colts lost center Jeff Saturday, which is a big injury.

The Colts are a good Money line team against division rivals earning a 16-4 record SU in the last 20 games but they aren't so good ATS, going only 8-12.

Indianapolis will be matched up against teams from the NFC North this year and the Colts have a five-game SU winning streak going against teams from the NFC North and they've gone 4-1 ATS in the same span as well.

This could be a tight race, as the Jaguars are a Super Bowl contender and even Tennessee or Houston could surprise (no kidding). There could be some real value in any of those three teams as a future bet.

AFC North

The favorite to take the AFC North at -140, the Pittsburgh Steelers, have had a relatively easy time of it against divisional competition going 14-6 SU and 11-8-1 ATS in the last 20 divisional games.

Along with games within the division and against other AFC divisions, the Steelers will see action against the NFC East this season, which makes for a tough schedule.

It's not going to be easy to win their division this year with an improving Browns team and if Cincinnati ever gets their act together, they could make some noise in this race.

AFC West

While all the talk in San Diego is about the pros and cons of Shawne Merriman's decision to skip surgery and play with ligament damage in one of his knees, the San Diego Chargers still look good, and their price to win reflects this, as they are listed at -500 to win the AFC West division.

The Chargers have been tough on their division as of late. In those divisional matchups, they've gone 10-2 SU in the last 12, including five straight wins, and 9-3 ATS, with a five-game win streak as well.

The NFC division that the Chargers will play this season is the South, one of the weaker divisions in the league.

The NFC South was formed in 2002 and meetings with are San Diego rare; the Chargers have 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against that division.

The NFL season is a week away. Enjoy the final week of preseason and your Labor Day long weekend.

Check out SPORTSBETTING.COM today for a special 25% Kick-Off bonus.

So who are your NFL picks this year in the AFC?

***

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2008 Football Picks Contests: What football contests are you in?

2008-08-29T22:26:00Z

Alright guys, football season has finally kicked off, and you can already feel the excitement all across Las Vegas and here on the Forums. If you listened to this week's Sports Betting Preview Show, you heard that I placed my wager on Missouri to win the 2009 BCS Championship last weekend, as I got 20/1 on the Tigers at the Wynn.

Tommy Rider and I signed up for the 2008 Great Giveaway Football Contest at Sunset Station a couple weeks ago, where you can win a BMW every week if you pick the most NFL winners and the end-of-season champion gets a house! Tonight, we are headed to the Eastside Cannery to enter their $125,000 Fantasy Football Contest.

Nothing beats the Football Picks Contests here in Vegas, but I am glad to see us launch our own Pregame Super 75 Contest on the Forums this week. I will be signing up the Pregame team up for the Hilton Super Contest on Sunday as well, which has long been considered the grand daddy of them all, with past winners taking home over $200,000. Remember, we will be tracking the Pregame teams this season at www.HiltonContest.com.

Just a friendly reminder to tell us who you think the 4th member of the Hilton team should be because today is the last day to vote! Also, don't miss out on the numerous online sportsbook football contests that are out there. You can get all of the info you need right now at PregameAction.com.

Finally, if anybody has any questions about these football contests and/or need info on entering, please don't hesitate to contact me at matt@pregame.com.

Tell me what football contests you are in, and best of luck to everybody this season!

***

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Preseason NFL Picks: Are you betting on the Super Bowl XLII rematch?

2008-08-28T18:48:00Z

By SPORTSBETTING.COM

If you think about it in a big picture way, the New England Patriots really had a fantastic 2007 season, despite the way it ended.

Going undefeated, whether you are playing a 14-game or 16-game regular season, is an amazing feat.

The Pats team remains largely intact and they are listed at +300 to win the Super Bowl this year.

The New York Giants were ecstatic when they pulled off the improbable upset at Super Bowl XLII beating the seemingly unbeatable Patriots and covering the 12.5-point spread in the process.

Well the two get set for a Super Bowl rematch later today, in what will be both teams' exhibition finale of 2008. SPORTSBETTING.COM has the Giants installed as a 2-point fav; the Total is set at 36.

Things have changed for both teams since that fateful day back in February.

Back in Arizona, Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had a full arsenal of pass rushers to throw at Tom Brady; these days, not so much.

The Giants lost the services of Osi Umenyiora for the season in an exhibition game against the Jets last week, when the Pro Bowl DE suffered a knee injury.

The G-men then attempted unsuccessfully to coax defensive leader Michael Strahan out of retirement.

The Patriots aren't at 100 percent either.

QB Tom Brady has yet to take a snap in preseason action, suffering from what is being called a "deep bone bruise" but is listed as Probable, although it is being speculated by some that they are simply resting up Brady for the regular season.

The Pats are still looking for their first preseason win, going 0-3 straight up and against the spread.

The Giants are undefeated ATS in preseason, but have only cashed in once with a 1-0-2 record (1-2 SU).

Including last year's Super Bowl, the Pats have yet to beat the Giants ATS, accumulating a 0-4 record against the line since 1987.

Are you guys making any NFL picks on the Super Bowl XLII rematch?

***

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Matty's Musings for 8/27/08: Stanford banking on winning season at home

2008-08-27T17:34:00Z

Will Stanford continue to be a joke at home?

This is the first of my new weekly column geared toward giving you a wacky look at football news from a sports betting perspective. Not sure if you guys have read this, but the Stanford athletic department has issued a money-back guarantee for football tickets this season. This coming from a team that has won 2 home games the last 2 seasons.

Here's how it works:

New season-ticket and new "Family Plan" buyers can ask for the "Gridiron Guarantee," and if unsatisfied with the "entertainment value" at season's end, the cost of the season tickets will be refunded.

Of course this isn't the first promotion Stanford has attempted to bring in more fans. They have offered everything from family discount plans to organic hot dogs on whole wheat buns in an effort to draw a bigger crowd. Nothing so far has worked.

The bigger problem is that the school spent $100 million to improve Stanford Stadium a couple years ago. I saw USC play the Cardinal back in 2000 when I lived up there, and the Trojans escaped with a narrow 32-30 victory. Exciting game, right? All I remember is tailgating outside the stadium and hearing ourselves talk during the brief time we spent at the game. The stadium was a dump, and I really think it would have collapsed had there been a major earthquake up there. Still, the renovations have not helped.

A week after Stanford stunned USC last year, the Cardinal drew just 37,777 fans for their homecoming game in a stadium that can hold 55,000. Will this new promo help?

"It's good motivation for us, but that motivation is already there," Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We definitely want to give fans their money's worth."

In case you were wondering, Stanford will have a great opportunity to start making good on their guarantee when they kick off the season by hosting Pac-10 foe Oregon State on Thursday night. The Cardinal is a 3-point home underdog with the OVER/UNDER total set at 45.5 (click here for latest lines).

The funniest thing I came across with this promo is that Stanford has made it impossible to see the USC game for free because refund requests must be turned in before November 15, which is when the Cardinal hosts the Trojans. Tickets must also be forfeited at that time

Do you think there will be a lot of refunds this year?

College Football Picks: 2008 Heisman Preseason Top 10 from Larry Ness

2008-08-26T22:02:00Z

2008 Heisman Trophy Preview

By Larry Ness
Pregame Pros Handicapper

I've always loved the Heisman, as in spite of all its warts and blemishes, it remains the most recognized and arguably the most-cherished individual award in any sport. I began doing a weekly Heisman top-10 on my nationally-syndicated radio show ("Bally's Sports Central") in the early to mid-90s and have continued it on the internet since. I didn't do one last year but I've had a number of requests to revive it this year, so I will. After a brief intro, my Heisman preview appears below. My weekly top-10 will be available right here every Monday, beginning on September 1.

The number seven is 'wild' when it comes to Heisman winners with Notre Dame, Ohio State and USC all tied with seven career Heismans. However, Notre Dame hasn't had a Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987 and he was the school's first winner since John Huarte won in 1964. USC became known as "Tailback U" as Mike Garrett (1965), OJ Simpson (1968), Charles White (1979) and Marcus Allen (1981) captured four awards in a 17-year stretch. Then QB Carson Palmer won in '02, QB Matt Leinart in '04 and RB Reggie Bush in '05. However, neither school figures to have a 'dog' in this year's Heisman 'hunt.'

Six players have won Ohio State's seven Heismans, as the Buckeyes own college football's only two-time winner, Archie Griffin (1974-75). OSU's first winner was Leslie Horvath in 1944 and its most recent winner was Troy Smith in 2006. RB Chris "Beanie" Wells is in my preseason top-five this year and QB Todd Boeckman is one of a trio of QBs I have ranked in the No. 8 spot (see below). Ohio State has lost back-to-back BCS titles games but is among a handful of favorites to return for a third consecutive try in '08. For that to happen, the Buckeyes will likely need to beat USC on September 13 in the Coliseum, where the Trojans have won 38 of their last 39 games.

It may come as a surprise to some that neither Alabama with 787 all-time wins (7th all-time) nor Tennessee with 771 wins (9th) have ever had a Heisman winner. Alabama has never had a player finish higher than fourth in the voting (most recently, Johnny Musso in 1971) while Tennessee has had four players finish second in the balloting. Hank Lauricella in 1951, Johnny Majors in 1956, Heath Shuler in 1993 and Peyton Manning in 1997.

It should be noted that two of previous four winners (prior to Tebow), each returned the following year only to fall short. Oklahoma's Jason White won the Heisman in his junior year of 2003 but finished third in the 2004 voting behind teammate Adrian Peterson (a freshman!) and USC's Matt Leinart, who won. Leinart returned for his senior year as well in '05 but like White, finished third in the voting that year, behind Vince Young (Texas) and teammate Reggie Bush, who became USC's seventh Heisman winner. However, Tebow's the "defending champ," so he'll begin the year atop my poll.

HEISMAN TROPHY PRESEASON TOP-10 POLL

1) Tim Tebow (Florida): Tebow helped the Gators win the national title in his freshman year (2006), offering a "change of pace" to Florida's starting QB that year, Chris Leak. Tebow attempted just 33 passes in '06, throwing five TDs with only one INT. However, in a sign of things to come, ran 89 times for 469 yards (5.3 YPC) while scoring eight TDs. He led a young Florida team a 9-4 mark in 2007, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass (32) and run (23) for 20 TDs or more in the same season. He completed 66.9 percent of his 350 attempts, while throwing just six INTs (finished second in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 172.47). His 210 rushing attempts were more than double the number of any other player on the team, as he ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC). He set an NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB (23), an SEC record for TDs accounted for (55) and a school-record for total offense (4,181 yards). He accomplished all this despite suffering a bruised shoulder in the middle of the season and playing with a fractured right hand in Florida's regular season finale vs Florida St. The Gators return all but two offensive starters this year, from a team which finished third in the nation in both scoring (42.5 PPG) and total offense (457.2 YPG) in '07. However, Tebow is not expected to run as much this year, so his numbers could be down. The Gators have a typically tough SEC schedule, visiting Tennessee and Arkansas, while playing in Jacksonville against preseason No. 1, Georgia. They also must visit Tallahassee on November 29 plus host LSU (defending national champs) and Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks on November 15, who almost beat the Gators in "the Swamp" in '06 (Florida won 17-16). I don't expect Tebow to repeat but he deserves to begin the year in the No. 1 spot.

2) Pat White (West Virginia): White returns for his senior year with quite a resume as West Virginia's starting QB. Unlike Tebow, don't expect his rushing attempts to be down this year. In fact, with RB Steve Slaton leaving school early, his opportunities may even increase. The Mountaineers went 11-2 last year, with White being hurt in both losses. He was injured in the late second quarter (and never returned) of a 21-13 loss at USF on September 28. Then, in the team's regular season finale at home vs Pitt (when a win meant a spot in the BCS title game), White dislocated his thumb in the second quarter and while he returned in the fourth quarter, he was not able to do much. However, he returned a month later to lead the Mountaineers to a 48-28 win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, completing 10-of-19 passes for 176 yards and two TDs (no INTs), as well as rushing 20 times for 150 yards. It marked his sixth 100-yard rushing game of the year, giving him 15 in his career. He'll enter this year having won Big East POY the last two seasons, with 4,207 career passing yards (64.2 percent), 35 TDs and 16 INTs. He's added 3,506 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and scored 39 rushing TDs. He's a perfect 3-0 in bowl games in his career, leading West Va past Georgia 38-35 in the Sugar Bowl in his freshman season and beating Ga Tech (also 38-35) in the Gator Bowl as a sophomore. His three-year bowl record is very impressive, as he's completed 30-of-48 passes (62.5 percent) for 427 yards (5 TDPs / 0 INTs), while rushing 66 times for 372 yards (65.6 YPC) and one TD. West Virginia has a realistic shot at going unbeaten in '08, which sure wouldn't hurt White's chances of winning the Heisman.

3) Chase Daniel (Missouri): Daniel completed 63.5 percent of his passes in 2006, throwing for 3,527 yards with 28 TDs and only 10 INTs. His 28 TD passes shattered Missouri's single-season mark, as it had been held by Terry McMillan, who had 18 back in 1969. Even more noteworthy that year was that Daniel led the Tigers to an 8-5 record, just the second time Missouri had won eight games in the previous 25 seasons. However, Daniel was just "warming up." Daniel was terrific last year, topping 300 yards passing eight times in 14 games (owns 12, 300-yard games in his career), with a career-high 421 in a 55-10 with at Colorado on November 3 in which he also matched a career single-game high of five TD passes. He finished the season by completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,306 yards while throwing 33 TDs and only 11 INTs. However, Daniel and the Tigers lost twice to Oklahoma in '07, 41-31 in Norman on October 13 and 38-17 in the Big 12 championship game on December 1. In those two losses, Daniel threw just one TD pass and was intercepted three times. However, the team's 12-2 finish after a 38-7 win over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, allowed the Tigers to finish No. 4 in the final AP poll, the school's highest-ever final ranking. Missouri is ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll (also the highest ranking ever for the school) and the good news is, the Sooners are not on the Tigers' regular season schedule this year. Expect Daniel to have another great year and if the Tigers can meet and beat the Sooners in this year's Big 12 championship game, Daniel is likely to wind up in New York as one of the Heisman finalists.

4) Chris Wells (Ohio State): Wells is the first RB on my list and I'm rating him one spot ahead of Georgia's Knowshon Moreno only because I believe the Buckeyes have a much easier overall schedule than the Bulldogs. Wells ran for 576 yards as a freshman (2006) and followed with an impressive 1,609 yards last year as a sophomore (averaged 5.9 YPC and scored 15 rushing TDs). After not topping 100 yards in any game in '06, Wells topped the 100-yard mark nine times in 2007, including 221 yards at home vs Michigan State, gaining a school-record (which is obviously a career-high for Wells) 222 yards in the regular season finale at Michigan plus gaining 146 yards on 20 carries in the BCS title-game loss to LSU, where he set a BCS record for the longest TD run (65 yards) in that game's 10-year history. Wells accomplished all this, while suffering with bone spurs the entire year. If the Buckeyes can win at USC on September 13 (no small feat), Ohio State just could reach the BCS championship game for the third consecutive year. If that's the case and Wells improves on last year's stats (which is hardly far-fetched), he's a legitimate Heisman threat.

5) Knowshon Moreno (Georgia): After losing 35-14 in Knoxville to the Vols on October 6 of last year, the Bulldogs record was a disappointing 4-2. True freshman RB Knowshon Moreno was held to just 30 yards in 13 carries (2.3 per) in that game and had hardly resembled Jamaica's Usain Bolt, "coming out of the blocks!" However, the Bulldogs would not lose again, finishing the year with seven straight wins. Moreno turned into a star in the first five games of that season-ending run by Georgia, gaining 766 yards or 153.2 YPG. He finished his freshman season with 1,334 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and 14 TDs. Georgia finished the '07 season at 11-2, with a final ranking of No. 3 in the coaches' poll and No. 2 in the AP poll. To begin '08, the Bulldogs have opened as the No. 1 team in the nation in both the coaches' and AP preseason polls, marking first-time the school has topped either of those polls in the preseason. Georgia is seeking its first national title since Herschel Walker's freshman year (1980) and Moreno is seeking the school's third Heisman (Frank Sinkwich won in 1942 and Herschel in 1982). The problem that both Georgia and Moreno will face in 2008, is that the Bulldogs must survive a brutal schedule. The SEC placed five other schools along with Georgia in the AP's preseason top-25 and all five are on Georgia's schedule this year, plus the Bulldogs must visit No.15 Arizona State on September 20. In all, the Bulldogs will face eight teams which feature head coaches who have won national titles on some level (for a complete list, see my article entitled, "CFB '08: Lucky No. 11").

6) Grahan Harrell (Texas Tech): After two RBs, I'm back to the QB position for the next three spots in my poll. After all, QBs have dominated the Heisman contests lately, winning seven of the eight awards this decade (Reggie Bush in '05 is the lone interloper). Harrell began the '06 season (his sophomore year) at Texas Tech as the school's starting QB. It marked the first time since 2001 that the Red Raiders did not open the year with a senior at that position. All Harrell did in '06 was complete 412-of-617 passes (66.8 percent) for 4,555 yards with 38 TDs and 11 INTs. All he did last year as a junior, was to improve on those numbers! Harrell completed 512-of-713 passes in '07 (71.8 percent) for 5,705 yards with 48 TDs and 14 INTs. His 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State was the fourth-highest single-game mark in NCAA history and by year's end he had become just the fifth QB in NCAA history with two 4,000-yard seasons on his resume. If he continues to improve, what can we expect this year? The Red Raiders are really a well-kept secret, as Texas Tech enters the '08 season with a run of 13 consecutive winning seasons (starting in 1994). The Big 12 was formed the following year and Tech is the only Big 12 team to post a winning season in each of that conference's 12 years. Now here's the rub. I earlier mentioned that Harrell had 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State on September 22 (also had five TDs and no INTs) but I didn't mention that the Red Raiders lost that game, 49-45. Tech stood at 6-1 through seven games last year but then Harrell had back-to-back four-interception games at Missouri (a 41-10 loss) and at home to Colorado (a 31-26 loss as a 13 1/2-point favorite). Harrell will put up huge numbers again this year (he owns 22 games of 300 passing yards or more, including 14 games of 400-plus) but any chance (outside at best) of him winning the Heisman will likely need Texas Tech to be 10-0 when the Red Raiders visit Norman on November 22.

7) Sam Bradford (Oklahoma): Bob Stoops won a national title in just his second year as Oklahoma's head coach. In '08, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford will try to give his head coach a second title, in Bradford's second year in Norman. Bradford was spectacular as red-shirt freshman last year, throwing for 3,121 yards (69.5 percent) with 36 TDs and eight INTs. His 36 TD passes were a new NCAA freshman single-season record and his QB rating of 176.52 led the nation last year. Bradford was brutal (8-of-19 with 112 yards / 1 TD and 2 INTs) in a 27-24 loss at Colorado (OU was favored by 23 points) on September 29 and at Texas Tech on November 17, he suffered a concussion very early (had attempted just three passes), as the Sooners lost their second regular season game of the year, 34-27. Bradford did come up big in Oklahoma's two wins over Missouri, completing 42-of-60 passes for 475 yards with four TDs and one INT, but he couldn't turn around Oklahoma's recent failures in BCS bowl games, as the Sooners were blown out 48-28 by West Va in the Fiesta Bowl, the school's fourth consecutive BCS bowl loss. Oklahoma is again a legitimate national title-game contender and Bradford, a legitimate Heisman contender.

8) Todd Boeckman (Ohio State) / Cullen Harper (Clemson) / Matthew Stafford (Georgia): I'd be shocked if any of these three QBs were to win but all three are the starting QBs on teams destined for excellent seasons. Boeckman entered last year with just 10 passing attempts in his first two years at Ohio State (backing up Troy Smith, who won the Heisman in '06) but led the Buckeyes back to the title game in '07. His stats weren't overwhelming in '07 (2,379 yards / 63.9 percent / 25 TDs and 14 INTs) but if the Buckeyes were to go unbeaten and return to the BCS championship game for the third straight year, who knows? Georgia's Stafford had the most modest stats of this "group of three" last year (55.7 percent / 2,523 yards / 19 TDs and 10 INTs) but many experts feel this guy could be the top QB taken when he enters the draft. Georgia won its lone national tile with Buck Belue as its QB in 1980, so anything is possible! Cullen Harper entered last year with just 22 pass attempts on his college resume but completed 65.1 percent of his passes in '07, throwing for 2,991 yards with 27 TDs and just six INTs (led ACC in passing efficiency). He's got a great RB tandem behind him in Davis and Spiller and just maybe, this is Clemson's year?

9) Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) / Percy Harvin (Florida) / Jeremy Maclin (Missouri): Only three WRs have won the Heisman in its history. Johnny Rodgers (Nebraska) won in '72, Tim Brown (Notre Dame) won in '87 and Desmond Howard (Michigan) won in '91. The one thing all of these three winners had in common was their ability to return kicks. If that's the 'deciding vote,' then let's first discuss Jeremy Maclin. Maclin was superb last year for the Tigers, catching 80 passes for 1,055 yards (13.2 per) with nine TDs. All this, despite the fact that Missouri owned a "two-headed monster" at the TE position with Rucker (84 catches) and Coffman (52 catches) plus Maclin also ran for 375 yards (7.4 YPVC) and for four TDs plus returned two punts for TDs as well. However, my favorite of the three is Florida's Percy Harvin. What a unique team the Gators had last year, with QB Tim Tebow leading the team in rushing and WR Harvin finishing second, with 764 yards (9.2 YPC) and six TDs. He also had 59 catches for 858 yards (14.5 per) with four TDs, which led the team despite the fact that Harvin missed two games. Last, but certainly not least, it's Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech. Crabtree finished with 134 receptions for 1,962 yards and 22 TDs. All were single-season freshman NCAA records. He became the first freshman to win the Biletnikoff Award and who knows what he may accomplish in '08?

10) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan). Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) / Percy Harvin (Florida) / Jeremy Maclin (Missouri): Only three WRs have won the Heisman in its history. Johnny Rodgers (Nebraska) won in '72, Tim Brown (Notre Dame) won in Now everyone outside of Mt. Pleasant, Michigan knows a player from the MAC can't win the Heisman. However, Chippewas fans will point out the similarities of Dan LeFevour's 2007 stats to that of Heisman winner Tim Tebow's. Tebow had a TD-to-INT ratio of 32-6 and LeFevour had one of 27-13. Tebow threw for 3,286 yards while completing 66.9 percent and LeFevour threw for 3,652 yards while completing 65.4 percent. Tebow ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC) with 23 TDs and Lefevour ran for 1,122 yards (6.0 YPC) with 19 TDs. Now all the Chippewas need to do is go 13-0 in the regular season (which would include a win in the MAC title game) and for LeFevour to greatly improve on his 2007 stats for him to even be considered as a Heisman finalist!

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Back to School: Info worth betting to help your college football picks

2008-08-25T17:39:00Z

Today is when students around Las Vegas head back to school, so I thought it would be appropriate to kick off the first college football week of the season with some valuable info I learned Saturday from the Football Handicapping Seminar at Red Rock Casino.

Tommy, Marco and I actually all got some awesome insight from the guys who make and put up the lines here in Vegas, as we got to hear about the research and thought process that comes into play before releasing the opening number. Las Vegas Sports Consultants Chief Operating Officer Ken White said he literally spends 5 hours going through college football boxscores every Sunday morning to find out how coaches handle late-game situations, especially in the fourth quarter. This was probably the single-most important factor I learned about during the seminar - how seriously oddsmakers take coaching.

For example, a head coach like Wake Forest's Jim Grobe is not likely to run up the score as a home favorite (4-9 ATS the last 4 seasons) but performs very well in an underdog role (10-2-2 ATS the last 2 seasons). White said he respects Grobe as one of the top coaches in the country but also noted all he cares about is winning games, not covering the spread or impressing pollsters. Grobe is much more likely to play reserves late in the game with a big lead because his priority in that situation is building depth and gaining experience for his young players. That isn't necessarily the case with other coaches.

Here are a few other items worth mentioning for handicapping purposes:

Clemson has 8 straight-up losses as a favorite the last 2 seasons
Georgia is the only school in the country whose schedule contains 10 opponents with winning records from a year ago
Cal is the only school in the country that has regressed statistically on offense and defense each of the last 3 seasons
LSU head coach Les Miles was widely criticized as the "luckiest coach in the country" last season in winning the national title and was shown little respect by the panel (Tommy and I could not agree more and believe the Tigers are a great team to fade this year)

Another key factor to consider is the following rule change:

2. Timing. 40-Second Play Clock (Rule 3-2-4). The 40-second play clock represents a major change in the timing of the game and will impact how the game looks and flows. The purpose of this change is to enhance the consistency of how soon the ball is ready for play once it has become dead. In the past, the play clock was set at 25 seconds and started on the referee's signal on every play. Now, the play clock will be set to 40 seconds after the ball becomes dead on every play and started immediately. In circumstances when the officials stop the game clock for administrative and other reasons, the play clock will be set to 25 seconds and started on the referee's signal in the familiar manner. The 25-second clock will be in effect for:

1. Penalty administration.
2. Charged team timeout.
3. Media timeout.
4. Injury timeout.
5. Measurement.
6. Change of possession.
7. Following a kick.
8. Score.
9. Start of each period.
10. Start of a team's series in extra period.
11. Instant replay review.
12. Other administrative stoppage.

Also, the committee has eliminated the 15-second play clock which was used following television timeouts.

Ball Out Of Bounds (Rule 3-2-5-a-12). When a ball is carried or fumbled out of bounds, the game clock will stop, as always. Beginning in 2008 the game clock will start on the referee's signal when the ball is ready for play, not on the snap. In the last two minutes of the half, however, the clock will start on the snap as before, preserving the ability of the offensive team to maximize strategic use of the clock.

White noted that this significant rule change will help teams who like to play at a fast pace (i.e. Florida, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech) play even faster while those who like to play slower and run the ball should still be able to milk the clock. That is the main reason the college football OVER/UNDER lines look a bit out of whack for Week 1 (see Tommy's blog on totals for more info on this subject). Also, keep in mind that three of the schools I mentioned earlier play in the Big 12, where there a lot of spread offenses that will take advantage of this fast pace and see a ton of high numbers this season.

Hopefully, this info gives you a good overview of what to expect early on when making your college football picks. Please also feel free to add any insights of your own below.

Best of luck everybody - let's kill the books this college football season

***

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College Football Picks: 2008 Heisman Trophy Rankings from JB Sports

2008-08-22T22:54:00Z

Florida's Tim Tebow is looking for a double score of college football's biggest trophy this season.

Handicapping 2008 Heisman Race

By Curry Bagwell/JB Sports
Pregame Pros Handicapper

My preseason college football picks for the 2008 Heisman Trophy...

1) Chris Wells, Ohio St. (5-1) - Wells is a dominating RB who gets two extra yards at the end of runs. He will pile up Heisman type statistics vs. weak Big Ten defenses. Once Ohio St. beats USC and establishes nation-wide credibility, it won?t matter who he gets his stats against. Second half big leads don?t work advantageously for WRs and QBs statistically, but can for RBs and Buckeyes will have most of their opponents worn down by the second half.
2) Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (16-1) - Harrell completed 72% of his passes last season and with Crabtree and this offensive line he could easily reach the 75% level this season. Games of 44 of 52 for 450 yards with 5 TDs are likely for Harrell this season.
3) Tim Tebow, Florida (7-2) - Gators have too many weapons this season for Tebow to put up the numbers he had last season. These guys will score before they get to the five yard line.
4) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10-1) - Nations #1 receiver in Nation?s #1 offense.
5) Pat White, West Virginia (10-1) - Health only question.
6) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia (8-1) - Sky is the limit for Moreno, but he will be running vs. SEC defenses and Wells will be vs. Big 10 defenses.
7) Chase Daniel, Missouri (6-1) - Another big year for Missouri.
8) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (14-1) - Maybe next year.
9) Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (50-1) - A threat from anywhere on the field.
10) Demarco Murray, Oklahoma (15-1) - Big year coming for him.

* Heisman Odds supplied by Bodog as of 8/20/08

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NFL Picks: Jets getting a lot of action for Saturday

2008-08-22T22:30:00Z

Bettors Like The Jets On Saturday

By SPORTSBETTING.COM

We're deep into the NFL preseason and that only bodes well for both football fans and bettors.

With Week 3 upon us, the first teams will see a lot more action, starting QBs will take more snaps and talented players who are trying to make the team will go the extra mile.

This week's preseason sked started off with the San Francisco 49ers defeating the Chicago Bears by a final count of 37-30.

Friday will see a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX with the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to New England to play the Patriots. Oddsmakers are favoring the home team by 2.5-points with a total of 37.

The Pats are 0-2 in exhibition play but the Chowder Heads probably aren't jumping off of bridges yet, after all it is the preseason and Tom Brady is supposedly suffering from a foot injury.

Foxsports columnist Alex Marvez told a Canadian radio station about a theory regarding New England's preseason strategy that he heard: head coach Bill Belichick is resting Brady and other players so that they will be fresh for the regular season.

Regardless, ESPN, citing the Boston Globe, has Brady listed as Probable and with the regular season a mere two weeks away, now would be a good time as any for Brady to get some reps.

Bettors are expecting the Pats to get preseason win No. 1 and with the starting QB expected to see playing time, based on the injury report, New England is seeing 68% of the betting action at SPORTSBETTING.COM.

The marquee matchup on Saturday will see the New York Giants playing the New York Jets with the line favoring the J-E-T-S by a field goal and the Over/Under at 38.

Just like the jealous middle child, the Jets sat around and watched their more athletic, popular brother, the New York Giants, win the Super Bowl and bask in the glory.

The football Giants made the late night talk show circuit, got the ticker tape parade and got all the headlines; and all the Jets could do was watch�that is until recently.

The acquisition of Brett Favre has done wonders for the Joe Namath�s old team. Prior to the deal, the Jets were listed at +3500 to win the Super Bowl, but as of today, they're down to +2500.

Jets WR Laveranues Coles was close with former QB Chad Pennington and wasn't happy to see his buddy jettisoned (no pun intended) to make room for Favre.

Favre has said all the right things but it remains to see if the two connect on and off the field; Coles is listed as Questionable on the injury report with a leg injury.

But despite that, bettors look like they are banking on the Jets' desire to show up the Giants after all the attention they received, pre-Favre.

SPORTSBETTING.COM reports that Favre's new team is seeing 65% of the betting action, and they seem to be a solid NFL pick.

Another Saturday game sees the New Orleans Saints traveling to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, with a Total of 42.

Last season, the Saints and Bengals ranked near the bottom of the NFL in defense (26 and 27 respectively) while they ranked a respectable fourth and tenth in offense.

Apparently Total bettors remember last year well, as a 64% majority are wagering on the Over for Saturday's game.

August is almost over and that mean's the NFL regular season will soon be upon us.

Enjoy your weekend and best of luck on all your football picks.

2008 American League Cy Young Award: Cliff Lee or Francisco Rodriguez?

2008-08-21T22:34:00Z

As of August 20, 2008, ESPN's Cy Young Predictor has another Cleveland Indian pitcher at the top of the list, this time southpaw Cliff Lee.

Proving that candidates don't necessarily have to be on winning teams - the Indians are in fourth in the AL Central - Lee currently sits with a 18-2 record and a 2.43 earned run average.

Lee is not only ESPN's favorite (so far) for the AL Cy Young; he tops the list at SPORTSBETTING.COM too, at -200. Lee has received 37% of all the volume wagered on the Cy Young award in the AL.

Since the start of the season, the Cleveland Indians have now gone 19-6 overall whenever Lee gets the start after today's win.

Prospective Cy Young winners needn't always be starting pitchers, just ask Dennis Eckersley.

The L.A. Angels' Francisco Rodriguez is high on both ESPN and at the books, ranking second and listed at Even money (+100) respectively.

Coming out of the bullpen, Rodriguez has struck out 57 batters and saved an AL and MLB best 48 games - oh and the Angels are the best team in the AL West, AL and MLB in general.

They're also 77-48 on the Money line so far this season.

The MLB playoff picture is slowly beginning to take shape, although how it ends up is far from clear.

It is possible, however that both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox could both miss the postseason; the Yanks and BoSox are listed at +350 and +100 to take the AL Wild Card respectively.

Boston currently sits 4.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL East lead and would be the AL Wild Card team if the season ended today but the season doesn't end today and the Minnesota Twins are coming on strong.

A game behind the AL Central leading Chicago White Sox and a mere half game behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race, the Twinkies have gone 10-3 in the last 13 games and Joe Nathan has been responsible for some of that.

In the same boat as the Angels' Rodriguez, Nathan comes on in relief and has earned 34 saves, 59 strikeouts and a 1.00 ERA.

Nathan is a bit of long shot for the AL Cy Young however, as he's listed at +1500.

National League

At one point of MLB's regular season, the leader of the NL West division was below .500 but that was then and now the Arizona Diamondbacks are the leaders with a 66-60 mark - Arizona is listed at -120 to take the NL West.

Starting pitcher Brandon Webb has been a large part of the D-backs' success with an MLB best 18 wins.

Webb sits atop of ESPN's NL Cy Young predictor and is listed as the odds-on favorite to take the NL pitching accolade at -500.

The Chicago Cubs look like they're seriously making a push to end a century long World Series drought (+300 at SPORTSBETTING.COM), currently the top team in the NL Central.

The Cubs' rotation is a large part of their success and starting pitcher Ryan Dempster, who is 14-5 with a 2.92 ERA, is one of the Cubbies' best pitchers and an option on the Cy Young menu at +700.

You might also want to wager on the "Field" option (paying out at +600) for the NL Cy Young prop as pitchers like CC Sabathia, who won last year with the AL's Indians, is part of that group. Sabathia has been unstoppable since being acquired by the Brewers in a trade, going 8-0 with his new team.

The Brew Crew are in the NL Central and Wild Card race, 5-games behind the Cubs for the divisional lead and in top spot in the Wild Card.

The end of season is within sight and there will be some interesting playoff races as teams sprint for the finish.

Have a good weekend.

Check out SPORTSBETTING.COM for all the baseball and NFL preseason lines.