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About Matty O'Shea

A native of suburban Chicago and 1995 graduate of Syracuse University, Matty O'Shea has over 10 years experience in sports journalism. O'Shea is a strong believer that content is king since his early days as a newspaper reporter at the age of...

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Matty's 3 Golden Rules for Betting Super Bowl Props

by Matty O'Shea on 01/25/2009 9:41 AM

 http://www.azcardinals.com/nm_files/Image/migrated/larryhpcatch.jpg
Fitz has been unstoppable in the playoffs and is very popular in Super Bowl props

Believe it or not, I have more fun betting props on the Super Bowl than on the game itself because I love the action and the possibility of cashing multiple bets throughout.  That is what makes the Super Bowl the single most exciting sports event of the year for me and why I put in some serious time following my 3 Golden Rules below...

1) SHOP around for the best line -
this is really a no-brainer and can be the difference between betting a prop and not betting it at all.  Your goal obviously is to beat the book every time you bet and take advantage of what you believe to be a bad line.  Most props are set up for something NOT to happen, so getting the most bang for your buck is the most important rule of all.  Make sure to check what every book is offering on props you are considering before putting your money down.  Also, definitely consider signing up for a new book if you're not getting good lines because there's nothing worse than knowing you could have gotten 20/1 instead of 12/1 when your prop cashes.

2) STUDY postseason trends - you have always heard that the best players step up in the playoffs, and I really believe that.  For example, Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald has already broken Jerry Rice's postseason record for receiving yardage and has emerged as arguably the best in the game right now.  I bet him to score the first touchdown in the NFC championship game at 6/1 after looking at the fact that he had scored the first TD against the Falcons in the Wild Card round and realizing how big of an impact he has continued to have with teammate Anquan Boldin hurting.  Injuries are a huge factor in the playoffs and something to consider in the Super Bowl with Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward dealing with a sprained knee.  Who steps up for the Steelers if Ward is just a decoy and unable to produce like he did when he was the MVP of Super Bowl XL?

3) BET realistic props with value - the player to score the first TD is somewhat of a sucker bet, and I could be the biggest sucker of all when it comes to betting it.  I look to bet on one player for each team because you never know who will get the opening kickoff and have the better chance to hit paydirt first.  However, in the Super Bowl you will have additional opportunities to wager on whether or not you think a player will simply score a TD or not.  When I was shopping props on Saturday here in Las Vegas, I saw that Fitzgerald was 5/1 to score the first TD, +110 to score a TD in the game, +310 to score two or more and +205 to score in the first half.  I ultimately settled on betting that he would score in the first half since all five of his TDs in the playoffs have come before halftime.  Of course I'm not saying you shouldn't throw $10 on a safety happening at 9/1 odds, but don't go crazy with those types of bets.  My main objective with props is to still make a profit on a game even if my big bet loses.  Getting carried away won't accomplish that goal, but hitting a longshot like that could get your money back.

For more info on betting props, check out "Introduction to Props" in Pregame's Betting Basics section, where you will also find tips on "Betting Super Bowl Squares."  

If you want to find out what I'm betting in the Super Bowl, don't miss my Best Bet & Props Package at Pregame Pros Yes

Best of luck with your Super Bowl betting everybody Beer

24 Comments:

 

posted by RJ_Bell on 01/25/2009 9:53 AM

Matty has lead the way here at Pregame.com taking advantage of the great value offered by props.

 

posted by GoodFella on 01/25/2009 10:01 AM

Outstanding BLOG as usual Matty.

 

posted by soko711 on 01/25/2009 10:08 AM

 Matty will you be posting your PORPS you bet for the superbowl????

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/25/2009 10:30 AM

I will give away one more on the Podcast I'm doing with Marco on Monday, but I'm selling the rest along with my Best Bet in my Super Bowl package at Pregame Pros.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/25/2009 5:16 PM

My top props ($100 worth) and Best Bet for Super Bowl XLIII are now locked and loaded at Pregame Pros.

 

posted by Chuck O'Luck on 01/25/2009 5:41 PM

Matty's PROPS=$$$$

 

posted by Dub22 on 01/25/2009 7:39 PM

Awesome Blog Matty, you are truly and expert when it comes to props.  Keep up the awesome work bud!

Dub Beer

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/25/2009 9:14 PM

Thanks guys - the audio version will be available on Monday Yes

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/26/2009 7:23 PM

Don't miss the podcast recorded on Monday:

pregame.com/.../77121.aspx

 

posted by RJ_Bell on 01/27/2009 12:22 PM

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/28/2009 7:19 AM

Great stuff all around - is anybody excited for the Super Bowl yet?!?

 

posted by Floridachad on 01/28/2009 7:37 AM

Not really, I'm more excited about the episode of The Office that comes on after the game

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 01/28/2009 7:56 AM

LOL - maybe there's a prop involving that you can bet on Chad.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 8:47 AM

Courtesy bump for Super Bowl Sunday.

 

posted by GoodFella on 02/01/2009 10:51 AM

GL with the props today Matty.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 1:17 PM

Thanks buddy - can't wait to start cashing some winners :)

 

posted by player693333 on 02/01/2009 1:25 PM

Thanks for the post Matty.....I shot you a email....

 

posted by VinCal on 02/01/2009 1:56 PM

No Thanks,,,I got killed with your Big East Game of the Year on Monday.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 2:08 PM

Sorry buddy, we'll make up for it today...

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 5:00 PM

Does anybody think Harrison has a shot to win MVP at 45/2 odds :)

 

posted by player693333 on 02/01/2009 5:32 PM

Can we still get the bet in lol.....I ONLY got like 20 to 30 to put in lol..............................

 

posted by Legion of Doom on 02/01/2009 5:41 PM

More often than not the obvious choices win Super Bowl MVP. For every one Larry Brown, there are 10 Joe Montana's.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 6:54 PM

Not gonna happen now - Fitz just won MVP.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 02/01/2009 11:00 PM

We just missed making a huge profit on these today...

***SUPER BOWL XLII PROPS BET AT BODOG ***

($100 total)

Will Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes score a TD?  W

YES at +155

$20 to win $31

Will there be a defensive/special teams TD score? W

Yes at +160

$20 to win $32

Total number of field goals made L

OVER 3.5 at +155

$20 to win $31

Pittsburgh LB James Harrison to win MVP at 45/2 L

$20 to win $450

Player to score first TD:

Pittsburgh WR Nate Washington at 12/1  L

$10 to win $120

Arizona RB Tim Hightower at 15/2 L

$10 to win $75

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