Matty O'Shea (see all posts from)

I wonder if Yao Ming knows Sean Corbin calls high-scoring games

It's obviously debatable whether or not you believe in referee trends enough to bet with them.  You should know by now that I am a strong advocate of riding NBA trends and carefully picking my spots to go against them.  Wednesday's game between the Raptors and 76ers was a perfect example of picking a spot to go against a team trend for Philly and looking at the refs as a potential difference maker and slump buster. 

Granted, the refs did not award the 76ers a ridiculous amount of free throws, but I thought the 76ers would be allowed to run more against the Raptors and read that ref Sean Corbin had seen the OVER cash in all five of his previous games (averaging 204.4 points).  That gave me the confidence to bet the OVER on a very low number (183.5), and the result ended up being a basket off of Corbin's season average.

This game had blowout written all over it following a 26-13 first-quarter advantage for Philly, but free throws in Toronto's favor actually helped the Raptors get back into the game and gave them a chance.  That's why I didn't give up on the OVER even though the game was on pace for only 156 points after the first 12 minutes. 

Here is my analysis on my NBA Total Play O' the Week for those who missed it:

702 TOR / 701 PHI OVER 183.5

Analysis: There's no doubt that the 76ers have struggled to score so far this season with the UNDER going 6-1 in their first seven games.  However, they will get an opportunity to play their first repeat opponent of the season tonight in the Raptors, who beat them 95-84 at home in the season opener.  The total had gone OVER in the previous five meetings between the teams, and the OVER remains 4-0 in the last four meetings at Toronto.  The Raptors return home following a three-game road trip that was capped by a tough 94-87 loss at Boston on Monday, and they should be ready to explode in this spot against a Philly team that has surrendered an average of nearly 100 points in three road games.  Finally, we have a ref calling this game in Sean Corbin who has seen the OVER cash in all five of his games this season, averaging 204.4 points.  Bet the OVER as my Double Dime NBA Total Play O' the Week.

UNDERs cashed quite a bit during the first two weeks of the season until oddsmakers made their first real adjustments, and tonight you see the three games on the schedule all hovering around the 200 mark (two of which are nationally televised on TNT and inflated a bit toward the OVER). 

My best advice is to look specifically at the average amount of points for the refs calling the games and use that info wisely.  If a ref's scoring average is much lower than the posted total, bet the UNDER and likewise with the OVER if they have called high-scoring games and the number seems too low.  I like for two of the three refs to have favorable trends unless one is dominant.  Of course there are no guarantees, but following these early trends have helped me go 7-1 betting totals so far this season.

Remember you can always find the daily referee assignments by clicking here.

Don't miss my NBA TV Play O' the Week tonight at Pregame Pros

Best of luck everybody 

NBA Referee Report Based on OVER/UNDER Results