By Curry Bagwell/JB Sports
Pregame Pros Handicapper
Following is my college football picks preview for the ACC...
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Clemson: Tigers were not highly regarded at the start of '07 as they opened as a pick at home vs. Fla. St.. Most analysts (not us) convinced the public that the Tigers were not in the same league as Fla. St. and the line went to FSU (-3). Tigers won that game 24-18 and were 8-2 in mid-November. This year the expectations are nothing short of their first ACC Title under Tommy Bowden and they should be. They return Sr. QB Cullen Harper who completed 65% of his passes last season while throwing only six interceptions. He is backed up by a talented red-shirt freshmen Willy Korn, who played in two games last season before hurting his knee and was granted a medical red-shirt. Two veteran RBs return in Sr. James Davis and Jr. C.J. Spiller. Both of these are projected 1000 yard rushers, but are perhaps more dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield. Those two combined for 90 receptions last year in Clemsons short passing attack. Tigers return a trio of veteran WRs in Aaron Kelly, Jacoby Ford, and Tyler Grisham. All three are solid and excel in catching the ball underneath and running for positive yards. Defensively, the Tigers return eight starters including everyone in the secondary. They have to replace LBs Nick Watkins and Tramaine Billie, but they appear to have young talent ready to step in at linebacker. Tigers defensive front will be solid and, if the nations #1 defensive recruit DaQuan Bowers lives up to billing, could be special. Clemson opens the season with a neutral site game vs. Alabama. It will be ACC #1 vs. SEC #7. A win over an SEC team like Alabama could give them and their schedule validity. As they pile up wins throughout the season, voters wont be as quick to point out how weak the ACC is if they have a win over an SEC school on their side.
Florida St.: Oh how the mighty have fallen. For almost twenty years, the Seminoles were known as Skilled Position U. Now they are at a point where true freshmen, JUCOs and converted CBs are counted on to bring their running attack back to prominence. Under the old FSU system, any QB became a star, but returning QB Drew Weatherford has been beaten up both mentally and physically during his tenure at Florida St. This year, Weatherford has a capable but inexperienced offensive line. Defensively, FSU returns eight starters. A stellar recruiting class could aid a defense which otherwise will be ordinary by FSU standards. A softer September schedule will work to Florida State's advantage this year. That will give this team time to take shape. Six starters will be serving suspensions for academic reasons as the season opens and top receiver and return specialist Preston Parker will not play until Sept. 20th as punishment for legal troubles. In other years when they opened with Miami or Clemson that would be disastrous, but this season they dont go out of state until Oct. 16th and don't play Clemson until Nov. 8th. This will be a different team Nov. 8 from the team that opens vs. Western Carolina Sept. 6th.
Maryland: Three through six is up in the air in the Atlantic division. I'm going with the Terps because their version of the West Coast offense is predicated on high % passing, strong inside running and not turning the ball over. With a solid offensive line and depth at WR, I think they will be able to accomplish that with whoever emerges at QB.
Wake Forest: It has been an incredible two year run for the Demon Deacons. They win the ACC as a 35-1 underdog in 06 despite losing their QB and RB in September. They follow that up with a nine win season a year ago and a bowl victory over Connecticut. This years team will need to duplicate last years ACC leading 35 takeaways to come anywhere near last years 9-4 record as they are going to have difficulty scoring. There are not enough playmakers on offense and the heart of their offensive line is gone. Their defense could keep them in some low scoring battles. If so, they will need that positive turnover margin to continue, but with the third and longs that I foresee, that is going to be difficult to obtain.
Boston College: If you want to really appreciate the value of departed QB Matt Ryan, take a look at some of the 07 film and you will see that he was stuck with a group of receivers that could not get separation. The core of that group is back for three year backup QB Chris Crane. BC averaged only 99 yards per game rushing last year so they are counting on 58 freshmen Josh Haden to turn their running game around. Defensively, BC loses their secondary and their front seven are below average. Amazingly, the Eagles have competed in and won five consecutive bowl games, but there is not enough team speed here for that streak to continue.
N.C. State: Wolfpack return only four starters from a defense that finishes ahead of only Duke in the ACC a year ago. They do return Sr. QB Daniel Evans, but he is on shaky ground and could eventually lose his job to Mike Glennon. They do have a solid core of RBs led by Jamelle Eugene and Andre Brown, but lose all three starting wide receivers. Adding South Carolina and South Florida to their schedule hurts their chances of a winning season.
COASTAL DIVISION
Virginia Tech: VA Tech loses their #1 RB, their top two return specialists and their top three receivers off of last years Orange Bowl team, so how can I pick them first in the ACC Coastal? It is similar to handicapping a thoroughbred race in that you have to analyze the competition and determine what it is going to take to win the race. It might take a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 to win the SEC East, but a speed figure of 80 could win the ACC Coastal. The names will be different but there is still enough speed and athleticism on defense for the Hokies to obtain that 80 speed figure taking advantage of the lack of top notch QB play in this conference. If they had to face the offenses and QBs in the Big 12 South, it would be a different story and they might finish fifth. They do return the QB duo of passer Sean Glennon and runner Tyrod Taylor, who was their second-leading rusher last season. On this particular team, Taylor may be the better fit because Glennon does not have the weapons at WR to throw to. Tech will be improved at offensive line and they are solid at TE. Their schedule is intriguing. They go to N. Carolina and Nebraska in back-to-back road games Sept. 20th and Sept. 27th. They also play at Fla. St. Oct. 25th and at Miami Nov. 13th . At the time that they play those two, both will be much improved which makes the Sept. 20th game with NC a key game.
North Carolina: Tar Heels return 18 starters including everyone but center Scott Lenahan on offense. Sophomore QB TJ Yates will show huge improvement in his second season and he has a talented group of WRs at his disposal. The offensive line could be the most improved in the ACC as nine of the top ten are back. This easily could be the ACCs 2nd best offense behind Clemson this year. With former RB Johnny White and JUCO Melvin Williams now in the secondary, an improved defense can also be expected. They get VA Tech at home Sept. 20th and with no Clemson on the schedule this team could plan for the ACC Championship.
Miami Fla.: A youth movement is on the way at the U and it should pay dividends by 09. Canes had a top three recruiting class including five Top 35 freshmen LBs. OT Marcus Forston was also a highly regarded recruit and adds to the expectations for 09 and 10. Offensively, they will be exciting at RB with Graig Cooper and Javarris James. The problems offensively start at QB. Robert Marve is a red-shirt freshmen and figures to get the job over other incoming freshmen. There are talented freshmen WRs here, but no quality route runners to make Marve's freshman year easier. The schedule is not kind to the young Canes either as they have to travel to Florida and TX A&M in September. This is a talented young team that could be pretty good by November and will be good in 09.
Georgia Tech: Totals on Yellow Jacket games this season could get as low as 29. Their defensive front seven is as good as there is in the ACC. DT Vance Walker and DE Michael Johnson are dominant. GA Tech led the nation in sacks last season and led the ACC in tackles for a loss. Offensively, the Jackets start over under former Navy coach Paul Johnson. Graduation and transfers have depleted the offensive line. They will run the triple-option offense and the Academies have amazed me by how quickly they retool offensively each season. However, those players were recruited for Paul Johnson's system and practiced it for a period of time before they were called upon whereas this GA Tech offense will be a work in progress. Their defense may outscore their offense in September.
Virginia: Cavaliers have lost three offensive linemen, their QB and Chris Long, who was the second pick of the NFL draft. Those are major losses to a team which used up all of their luck last season winning five games by 2 points or less. The schedule does not work well for them as they get non-winnable games vs. USC and Clemson at home and toss up type games vs. Duke, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech on the road.
Duke: New head coach David Cutcliffe inherits a Duke team that was 1-11 a year ago and is 0-24 in ACC games over the last three seasons. 17 starters return and there is a weapon on offense in WR Eron Riley. The defense will be improved and fits somewhat athletically in the conference. Early season games with James Madison, Northwestern and Navy could determine whether this team has a chance for its best season in years. Those three are all played at home and if they could win 2 or 3, it could give this experienced team confidence going into a favorable home ACC schedule.
ACC Fact: Despite the fact that the ACC is weaker than they have been in years, they produced three of the top twelve recruiting classes in the NCAA (Clemson, Miami Fla. and Fla. St.).
ACC Handicapping Note: In 2006, ACC teams playing out of their conference were 8-21 vs. the spread including 2-14 when favored. In 2007, ACC teams playing out of their conference were 16-21 vs. the spread including 7-12 when favored. (Point spreads of 30 and over not considered).
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