By Curry Bagwell/JB Sports
Pregame Pros Handicapper
Following is my college football picks preview for the best conference in America...
SEC East
Florida: Gators went into the '07 season with only two returning starters on defense. They paid the price for it as they did not hold an SEC opponent under 20 pts. and were lit up by Michigan in the Capital One Bowl. The secondary was the main culprit and the Gators addressed that in recruiting bringing in five star Safety Will Hill along with Adrian Bushell and Jeremy Brown. With the arrival of defensive tackle Omar Hunter and a speedy group of linebackers, this defense will be much improved.
Offensively this team will be scary. Help has arrived for Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and Brandon James. Chris Rainey who missed most of '07 due to injury is a Percy Harvin clone. Emmanuel Moody started four games as a RB at USC, but after the recruitment of Joe McKnight decided to transfer to Florida. WR Carl Moore is a JUCO recruit who at 6'4 and 220 lbs. can be the physical receiver they need to compliment their speedy wideouts. This team may not need a punter.
The main reason for picking Florida over Georgia is the schedule and usually that is the determining factor in winning this league. This is a year that the Florida Georgia game counts as a road game for Florida although it is played each year in Jacksonville. That leaves the Gators with three true SEC road games at Tenn., Arkansas and Vandy.
Georgia: Bulldogs are the trendy pick to win the SEC and some have them playing in the National Championship game. You can hardly blame those who pick Georgia, after all, they return all 11 starters on offense including Heisman candidate RB Knowshon Moreno. QB Matthew Stafford would be first team all SEC if there wasn't a Heisman winner already in that spot. The main reason I like Georgia's offense is the development of their young offensive line. At times, the Bulldogs started three freshmen there a year ago, and that experience has helped mold them into a solid unit.
Defensively I think the Bulldogs are good, but not great. They are in the same position LSU was in a year ago. Ranked top three nationally and favored to win the SEC. However, their defense is not where LSU's was this time a year ago and LSU did not go unscathed. When you're the favorite, you become a target and bring out the best from your opponent, especially on the road. Their road games are at South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky and LSU. With a totally rebuilt kicking game, I don't think Georgia with this defense will make it through this road schedule without a loss or two. Add to that, home games with Alabama and Tenn., along with a neutral site game with Florida and I see at least two losses for the Dogs.
South Carolina: Wasn't it late October last year when the Gamecocks were ranked # 7? What happened? Well, for one, a revolving door offensive line policy which led to protection problems and a poor running game. Add to that, a revolving door QB policy which led to an 0-5 finish. Can any QB satisfy Coach Spurrier? Similar thing could happen this year with QB's Smelley and Beecher. If they can get that worked out, the Gamecocks could have a solid season. Three of their four SEC road games are winnable. Games at Vandy, Kentucky and Ole Miss are winnable games especially with this defense. 10 starters return on a defense anchored by ALL SEC LB's Jasper Brinkley and Eric Norwood and that should be the strength of this team. There is still a gap between them and Florida or Georgia, but they are distancing themselves from the bottom of the SEC East.
Tennessee: Vols ten win season last year was an overachievement. They were actually out gained in SEC play. They played in the SEC title game despite allowing 216 pts. in five road games. The jury is still out on this year's defense which must get tougher if they are to compete in SEC play. Offensively, Vols could have one of the best offensive lines in the SEC. That will aid in the maturation of QB Jonathan Crompton and aid the running game anchored by Arian Foster. Late season games with Wyoming, Vandy and Kentucky should assure the Vols of a winning season, but they won't compete for an SEC title.
Kentucky: You have to give Coach Rich Brooks a lot of credit for bringing in the kind of players he has brought to this University. When he got there in '03, he had only 68 scholarship players and very little talent from those. Four years later, he led Kentucky to an 8-5 record and a bowl victory over Clemson. Last year in mid-October, Kentucky gained a top ten ranking after defeating #1 LSU. That is an incredible turnaround when you consider the competition on and off of the field in the SEC. Now with QB Andre Woodson gone, and playmakers Burton, Johnson, Tamme and Little gone Coach Brooks will have to summon all of his talents to get this team bowl eligible. Cats return eight starters on a defense which allowed 34.5 P.P.G. in SEC play a year ago, but only four on offense.
Vanderbilt: For a twelve team conference to consistently have eight or nine teams bowl eligible each year, two teams need to go 0-8 or 1-7. That is the only way the math will work. This year in the SEC, that responsibility lies with Vandy and perhaps Arkansas. Commodores lose everybody on offense and are so lacking playmakers that star CB DJ Moore is going to play offense, defense and run back kicks. It is going to be a long year in Nashville and unfortunately for them their toughest games are at home.
SEC West
Auburn: There are questions concerning all of the teams in the SEC West, so we will go with the game coach to win the SEC West. Time and time again Auburn's Coach Tuberville comes up with something new to win a big game. With Auburn struggling in the second half vs. Clemson in the Peach Bowl in comes QB Kodi Burns and the power-spread offense is born. Tigers won that game 23-20. Auburn suffered two home losses in September and were facing road games at Florida, Arkansas and LSU. Tuberville made defensive adjustments and they won at Florida, at Arkansas and came within one second of winning at LSU. The power-spread offense is in good hands with QB Burns and TTech transfer QB Chris Todd. A more experienced offensive line should ignite RB's Ben Tate and Brad Lester. Defensively, their biggest loss could be coordinator Will Muschamp who is now at Texas. Paul Rhoads takes over and thinks he has a speedy core of linebackers and the makings of a solid defensive front that especially will match up with LSU who they play Sept. 20. At the time they play LSU, the Tigers will not have a QB that has played a down vs. an SEC opponent on the road. The timing of that game gives Auburn the edge to win the SEC West. Because of the tiebreaker, the loser of that game has to make up two games the rest of the way. If Auburn does win that game and I think they will, they will be tough to catch because their SEC road schedule includes Ole Miss, Miss St. and Vandy.
LSU: It is incredible the amount of talent that has come through Baton Rouge over the last five years. They win a BCS National Championship in '03. They win 11 games in '05 and '06. They lose four players who are drafted in the first round off of the '06 team and still win the BCS National Championship last year. Now they lose their QB Flynn, their top RB Hester, their top WR Doucet, their top DL Dorsey, their top LB Highsmith, and their top Safety Steltz to the NFL. Even with those departures, there are those that would argue that this team is as good as those if it wasn't for the transfer of troubled QB Ryan Perrilloux. Perrilloux was actually suspended before spring practice so new QB's Jarrett Lee (talent) and Andrew Hatch (brains) were able to take all the snaps in spring practice and the Purple-Gold game. With Hester gone, it will open up more carries for three talented LSU RB's Richard Murphy, Charles Scott and Keiland Williams. All three are game breakers and the reason that Louisiana native Joe McKnight went to USC. WR's Toliver, LaFell, Byrd, Mitchell and Trindon Holliday can also break the game open. This offensive line could be LSU's best in years anchored by 6'8 350 lb Herman Johnson. They will have to be to give the two QB's time to develop. The 18 year old freshman Lee has never thrown a pass in a college game. Junior Andrew Hatch threw two passes last year vs. Middle Tenn. and appeared in two games in '05 at Harvard. Defensively, despite losing Dorsey, the Tigers defensive line will be the best in the SEC as most SEC coaches would agree. The weakness in their defense, at least early in the season, will be their secondary. They are rebuilding there, but eventually Freshmen five star recruit Patrick Johnson and Sophomore Chad Superman Jones will get it turned around. Despite all of this talent, when your weaknesses are at QB and in the secondary and three of your first four SEC games are at Auburn, at Florida and at South Carolina, there is reason for concern. If they could survive all of that with only two losses, the schedule turns their way in November. They could finish up strong at 10-2 and not be playing in the SEC Championship game, but could be the SEC's other qualifying BCS team like they were in '06.
Alabama: No, this is not Alabama's QB John Parker Wilson's sixth year at QB for the Tide, it only seems like it. With eight starters returning on offense, he should be set for a solid senior season. Losses at WR were replenished by the nation's #1 recruiting class including WR's Julio Jones and Burton Scott. That class will be called upon to help with several depth issues concerning Coach Saban. This is not a Saban-like defense yet, but it will be eventually. Schedule doesn't help Bama this year as they travel to Georgia and LSU, but the schedule reverts back their way in '09. That will be Saban's third season and it could be Bama's season.
Ole Miss: Then Arkansas Coach Houston Nutt was informed after the Razorbacks 48-36 win over South Carolina last year that he would not be returning as the Razorbacks head coach. Knowing that the stock would be bare in '08 for the Hogs, but not for the Rebels, he immediately called Archie Manning and arranged an interview with Ole Miss. He not only was paid to come to Ole Miss, but was paid to leave Arkansas. Ole Miss has more athletes than they have had since the Eli Manning era. It starts with former Texas QB Jevan Snead. Big things are expected from Snead as he has a pair of quality WR's in Shay Hodge and Dexter McCluster. This also could be the Rebel's best offensive line since the Manning era. Defensively, they return nine starters including standouts DE Greg Hardy and LB Ashlee Palmer. Their weakness will be in the secondary. A fast start is always important for a new coach and the schedule gives Ole Miss a chance for a 4-0 start as the Houston Nutt era begins.
Miss St.: Don't ever underestimate team chemistry in a team sport like football. That's what carried the Bulldogs last season and the players love Coach Sylvester Croom. It all started five years ago at the first meeting between the coach and his players. He introduced himself and then asked all the N___ to leave the room. The startled players sat there and again Coach Croom said the same thing. I mean all of you wearing dreadlocks, tattoos and those with earrings in your ear. It took him a while to get his type of players, but he and State were rewarded last season with an 8-5 record including a Liberty Bowl win. This year's team will be hard pressed to duplicate last season. They'll be solid defensively, but they lack team speed and won't put many points on the board. They have enough winnable home games to have a shot at a break even record, but that is about all they can hope for.
Arkansas: The word got out that Arkansas could not develop a passing game under Houston Nutt so he was fired. Top QB prospect Mitch Mustain left for USC. WR's were transferring and de-committing. Their offensive coordinator left. They were in an unfixable mess. I mean, if you can't throw the ball with teams playing eight in the box and you have a receiver like Monk, you are in trouble. Just when it looked like the Hogs would be cellar dwellers in the SEC West for years, they lure pass happy Coach Bobby Petrino from Atlanta. This year is gone, but the future is not. Petrino, despite a late start, managed a top 25 recruiting class. Receivers are now transferring to Arkansas and highly regarded QB Ryan Mallett left Michigan and transferred to Arkansas. They won't compete this year, but will soon.
SEC Fact: Florida is LSU's mandated SEC East opponent every year, likewise for Florida. Pretty tough thing to overcome yet these two have won three of the last five BCS National Championships.
SEC Handicapping Note: CBS has the 3:30 Eastern time slot for SEC games. LSU has become their ratings darling. They had them six times a year ago. LSU, as a home favorite in day games, has covered only 29% of the time since 1969 (spreads of 35 or over not included). Two examples last year: LSU (-16) vs. SC won 28-16. LSU (-13) vs. Arkansas lost 50-48.
> Buy JB's NFL picks this season & get his college football picks FREE!