I have been enjoying a lot of success with my baseball totals lately (11-3 over the last month), so I wanted to take some time out to give a little advice on what has been working for me. Here are the three main factors I examine before betting a total...
Series History: I cashed my AL Total Play O' the Month on Monday after breaking down series results between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. I noted in my analysis that the three previous meetings earlier in the season ALL WENT UNDER BY AT LEAST 4 RUNS. What happened on Monday? Toronto's Roy Halladay shut down Seattle in a 2-0 victory. While I look for AT LEAST two of these factors to be strong before making a total play, this is the one I weigh more heavily than the others personally when I handicap.
Recent Offensive Play: Obviously, teams go through peaks and valleys offensively over the course of a season. Riding these streaks can be very profitable, but there is ALWAYS the possibility that a team can break out or go cold at any point. Look at San Diego's 15-7 win over Colorado on Monday as the perfect example. The Padres had lost eight straight games heading into Coors Field, scoring three runs or less in their previous seven. But then, BOOM! I definitely look at recent offensive play but only as a secondary factor when picking totals.
Starting Pitcher's Last 3 Starts: Yes, looking at a starting pitcher's year-to-date or career numbers against a particular team can be valuable, but a lot can change over a long-term period. Focusing on a pitcher's last 3 starts though both overall and against the opponent can tell you a lot more about what to expect. Read as much as you can about those 3 starts to find out if the pitcher changed his delivery or any other mechanics. This is exactly what I did with Seattle's R.A. Dickey, who had been a gas can in his first couple starts. However, I read about how he consulted with fellow knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and Charlie Hough about what he needed to do to be more effective. Since then, Dickey has allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings of work.
Finally, one more helpful hint - don't let the numbers prevent you from betting a total. I made my AL Total Play O' the Month when the number was 8 the night before only to wake up the next morning to find it sitting at 7.5 with the OVER favored at -125. Of course I liked the number more at 8, but 7 is still a winner, and I expected a very low-scoring game. The sportsbooks seemingly set this up as a trap, temping bettors to bet the OVER with Dickey on the mound. In reality, some of my clients probably ended up getting great value with an easy UNDER cashing at +105.
Also, if a game looks like a sure-fire pitching duel or high-scoring affair, it probably will be. Case in point was last Saturday's interleague matchup between Oakland's Justin Duchscherer and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum. Both pitchers were very dominant in their respective home/road situations, and the Giants won 1-0 with an O/U set at 7. Do NOT let what looks like a low or high number scare you away from making money.
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SPECIAL NOTE: Don't miss my 2-for-Tuesday Totals Double Play at Pregame Pros!