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A native of suburban Chicago and 1995 graduate of Syracuse University, Matty O'Shea has over 10 years experience in sports journalism. O'Shea is a strong believer that content is king since his early days as a newspaper reporter at the age of...

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Free throws proving to be the difference at home in NBA playoffs

by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 1:54 PM

SAN ANTONIO - MAY 15: The San Antonio Spurs  mascot "The Coyote" during the game against the New Orleans Hornets in Game Six of the Western Conference Semifinals during the 2008 NBA Playoffs on May 15, 2008 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2008 NBAE  (Photo by Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

Most of us are still in awe over the ability of home teams to win in the second round of the NBA playoffs, going 20-1 SU & 15-5-1 ATS.  However, there is a logical explanation for this, which has a lot to do with the amount of free throws awarded to each team. 

What I found very eye-opening in doing this research is the amount of free throws in the Lakers/Jazz series, and the Cavs getting more free throws in two of the three games at Boston.  Of course this isn't rocket science, but I still wanted to share the results with you.

Here are the numbers...

Cavs vs. Celtics
(Edge in free throws attempted)

Game 1: Cavs (26-18) Lost SU, Won ATS
Game 2: Celtics (38-27) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 3: Cavs (33-24) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 4: Celtics (26-18) Lost SU, Lost ATS
Game 5: Cavs (41-23) Lost SU, Won ATS

Home team has more free throws in 2 of 5 games
Team with more free throws 4-1 ATS

Lakers vs. Jazz

Game 1: Lakers (46-30) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 2: Lakers (43-16) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 3: Lakers (37-28) Lost SU, Push
Game 4: Jazz (45-25) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 5: Lakers (42-28) Won SU, Lost ATS

Home team has more free throws in 4 of 5 games
Team with more free throws 3-1-1 ATS

Spurs vs. Hornets

Game 1: Spurs (21-15) Lost SU, Lost ATS
Game 2: Hornets (24-19) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 3: Tied 21-21
Game 4: Spurs (20-12) Won SU, Won ATS
Game 5: Hornets (33-18) Won SU, Won ATs
Game 6: Spurs (18-13) Won SU, Won ATS

Home team has more free throws in 5 of 6 games
Team with more free throws 4-1 ATS

TOTAL

Home team has more free throws in 11 of 16 games (69%)
Team with more free throws 11-3-1 ATS


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22 Comments:

 

posted by Nba » Free throws proving to be the difference at home in NBA playoffs on 05/16/2008 4:06 PM

Pingback from  Nba » Free throws proving to be the difference at home in NBA playoffs

 

posted by jimmy the greek on 05/16/2008 4:31 PM

rocket science or not, still very relevant to the outcomes. Good info. Matty. I d give a GOLD STAR if I could.B.O.L.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 4:33 PM

Thanks Jimmy - just an observation I wanted to pass along since I follow the officials pretty closely and have noticed a solid correlation to free-throw attempts for the home teams.

 

posted by jimmy the greek on 05/16/2008 4:36 PM

Which is why " You da MAN MATTY.Have a good w/end.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 4:37 PM

You too - don't miss my Triple Dime Top NBA Prop tonight!

 

posted by Celtics » Blog Archive » Free throws proving to be the difference at home in NBA playoffs on 05/16/2008 5:33 PM

Pingback from  Celtics  » Blog Archive   » Free throws proving to be the difference at home in NBA playoffs

 

posted by Stevebeav on 05/16/2008 6:18 PM

MATTY-

LOOK BACK AT ATLANTA - BOSTON!

ATL WON 3 GAMES ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BY FT'S

YOU JUST UNEARTHED THE #1 KEY TO HANDICAPPING NBA HOOP GAMES OVER / UNDER!  (as I'm sure you knew)....I have been using this as top indicator of steam / value / trend - o/u line capping for 4.5 years (ONE OF NINE KEY INDICATORS - tempo indicator and teams ability to get to the rim...much more valuable to me than refs...at least in playoffs).

Awesome....I seriously had been waiting for an in depth analysis in here about this indicator for a while - and had mentioned it (as you had) in many discussions before....nice work.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 7:52 PM

Thanks Steve - LeBron had more free-throw attempts than the entire Celtics team combined tonight in Game 6.  I'd say that was a pretty big factor :)

 

posted by BeforeYouBet on 05/16/2008 7:58 PM

Then that means the refs and the league are cheating so that they get as many games possible...money money money and more games for us to bet on.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 8:36 PM

Hmmm....interesting theory LOL

 

posted by respectrayallen34 on 05/16/2008 11:02 PM

This has been pretty obvious at certain points. Lakers Game 5 was absolutely blatent. The officials had a huge hand in that game. I was sitting with 2 friends watching that game. They are both huge Lakers fans. In a crucial 5-7 minute stretch, there was call after call that were absolutely ridiculous. They both saw exactly what i saw. Refs that were looking for anything to call on the Lakers side. They wanted to put the Lakers on the line anyway they could. They were making calls way before they happened and even imaging things. They were hullicinating. The Lamar Odom drive with nobody within 2 feet, And1. We were already coming to the conclusion that this was at least partially rigged, then with that call we basically fell out of our chairs. The WWE seemed more real at that point. The refs are deciding games, imagine that

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 11:28 PM

Lakers got more calls again tonight and won - shocker.

 

posted by respectrayallen34 on 05/16/2008 11:52 PM

yes they did. What did you think of the Pierce charge? Do you think the NBA would rather have Lebron vs. Kobe or Celtics/Lakers? I honestly don't know

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/16/2008 11:56 PM

I honestly don't know either - look out for the Pistons.

 

posted by Stevebeav on 05/17/2008 1:24 AM

Man oh man....If I honestly thought 'The League' got together in a smoky backroom, with refs and David Stern back in the dark in his captains chair, listening in to the 'Skull & Bones' exclusive think tank - before leaning into the light, pounding his fist on the huge 80 foot long Maplewood Conference table and proclaiming,

"I want to see LAKERS - CELTICS, damn it....MAKE IT HAPPEN OR I'LL FIND SOMEONE WHO WILL!!!!  

....I would not bother watching....

I just don't give 'Them' that much credit - to orchestrate such a collective, unified interest....did the 'NBA' want the Spurs in the Finals last year?  Wouldn't the Suns have made a much more compelling match-up....?

You cannot tell me that that Horry - Stoudamire "Trade" in last years playoffs - when both guys were suspended one game for an incident that Horry instigated, and baited....that move practically supplanted the Suns for the Spurs into the WCF...Phoenix had that Close out game set up perfectly and it all went away with losing their key match-up advantage (and counter to Groundhog Day).

I have been hearing these conspiracy theories for so long - I just don't listen anymore...

Hey Matty - remember the 'Jordan is on SECRET LEAGUE SUSPENSION due to his Gambling Addiction - and his connection to the HIT on his Father, resulting from Gambling Debts and issues"..?

Are the REFS paid off?  Rigged?  really...I mean, REALLY?  Which guys are paid off?  In the Donahey fallout still fresh - are they really stupid enough to go that route?  What is their motivation if it's not $?  If so who's paying them off...The NBA?  

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/17/2008 7:45 AM

I chalk it up to part of the "home-court advantange" and will go out on a limb and say both the home teams win Game 7.

 

posted by Stevebeav on 05/17/2008 5:24 PM

AGREED...BOSTON MAY HAVE SUCKED ON THE ROAD 0-6, BUT THEY ARE MONEY AT HOME.

I must admit though....those old intangible, irrational Spurs - memories are running thru my head when I look at this New Orleans at San Antonio game...

Irrational only in that - I can't get the SHEEP mentality out of my head that THESE ARE THE SPURS....The Champs...still have TD, TP, Ginobili and a great, experienced coach / system vs a very young, otherwise inexperienced team....those intangibles ought to matter a whole lot less than the personnel and Home Court, CHRIS PAUL, ect...

I also gotta admit that I'd very much love to see New Orleans vs LAL!  That will be such an outstanding, hard fought, intense series.  I respect the Spurs a great deal....I am just a little tired of watching them and all their clear-outs and 30-35 Threes a game, ect.

I never thought I'd say this - but I LIKE watching Tyson Chandler, David West and that Low Post Tandem at work - and holy smokes Chris Paul?  I know he won't be matched straight up v Kobe....but that Series and that backcourt face-off will be truly riveting...

If basketball fans somehow don't watch this in big numbers, they won't know what they are missing!  

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/17/2008 5:36 PM

Agreed Steve - despite some of the alleged made-for-TV antics, this could very well go down as the best NBA playoffs ever.

Also note that I said the home teams will both probably win Game 7, but I didn't say they would cover.

 

posted by respectrayallen34 on 05/17/2008 9:35 PM

If Boston and New Orleans get to the Conference finals it will probably be the best  and exciting final four a can remember in a long time. We all know that i will be loving Detroit vs. Boston. But I will be just as excited to watch LA vs. New Orleans. I am falling in love with the New Orleans squad.

 

posted by respectrayallen34 on 05/17/2008 9:39 PM

You can chalk it up to home court if you want to. The Lakers in game 6 was not home court, althogh the majority of it is happening on the home court. Its just hard to understand. NBA refs are so much apart of the game. They are like characters in the storyline just as much as the players are. I understand why players play better at home. But the refs being influenced by home court to such an extreme extent i will never understand. Its like they feed off the crowd just as much as the players do. Hmm, i guess we will never really know. After all, a certain ref bet on over 100 games he worked. We have no clue

 

posted by nba playoff on 05/18/2008 1:34 PM

Pingback from  nba playoff

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 05/18/2008 5:44 PM

Did you happen to see which team had more free-throw attempts in Game 7 today?

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