Marc Lawrence

NCAA ROUND UP…Opening Round Games

2010-03-16T21:02:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

The 2010 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS

• #1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds • #2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds • Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY) • Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win • Favs of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS L9Y) • Favs of 20 > pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win • Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years • Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS • Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:

FIRST ROUND NOTES

• #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS • #2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y) • #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y) • #4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (8-2 L4Y) • #9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts • Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)

Conference Tournament Champs in this round

ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.

Best Team SU records in this round

Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.

Worst Team SU records in this round

BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.

Best Team ATS records in this round

Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.

Worst Team ATS records in this round

Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6. If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist. I’ll be back next week with a look at SWEET 16 action. Let the games begin!

SEC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

2010-03-09T12:28:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Mississippi State

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

KENTUCKY enters as the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2005 and we'll look for them to continue their dominant play in this event. Since 1992, the Wildcats are 38-8 SU and 31-13-2 ATS, including an amazing 28-8-1 ATS as favorites of more than four points in this tourney. The top rebounding team (+10.6 margin) in the land also brings the nation's 7th-stingiest Defensive Field Goal Percentage (36.1). That combo is a formula for SU and ATS success. Though this site favors VANDERBILT, keep in mind that the Commodores are only 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS the last four times they played a SEC tourney game in Nashville. However, the feeling here is home cooking and five returning starters should get them to the title game. One of three teams in this loop with five returning starters, TENNESSEE has kept it together all season despite many off-court distractions. We can expect the usual all-out effort from Bruce Pearl's bunch but their 5-13 ATS mark in their last 18 tourney games, along with their brutal 1-7 ATS log as favorites vs an opponent off a SU win this season, may have them singing the blues in Music City, USA. Shot-blocking sensation, Jarvis Varnado, the NCAA all-time leader in swats, leads the way for MISSISSIPPI STATE. The defending champs won four games in four days last year to claim the title. With their 12-7 SU tourney record since 1996, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four as tourney dogs, another deep run wouldn't surprise. Don't overlook this five-returning starter unit.

THE SLEEPER: Florida

Gators were up and down this season but their pedigree in this tourney (10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS last five years) is too much to overlook. Toss in Billy Donovan's 44-20 career mark in post season games, including 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS against greater than .777 opposition, and suddenly UF is one opponent no team in this league is anxious to take on.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Tennessee vs Vanderbilt

Vols took it on the chin twice this season against rival Commodores and will be kicking their heels for the chance at a third showdown. Series history is on their side as UT is 9-3-1 ATS in revenge, including 7-1 ATS when Vandy is off a win. Bruce Pearl's 20-5-1 ATS mark as a dog against .774 or greater competition seals the deal.

PAC 10 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

2010-03-09T12:27:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

California, Arizona State, Washington and USC

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

In the eight-year history of this tournament, there have been six different winners. CALIFORNIA isn't one of them. Could this be the Bears' turn? Cal was one-and-done last year but led by guards Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher, the only returnees from last year's All Pac-10 first team, this year's regular season champs are in good hands. Naysayers will remind us of Cal's 6-8 SUATS mark away from campus. While it's true the Berkeley Bears did most of their damage at home this season (15-1 SU and 11-4 ATS), we'll point to their 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS mark as tourney favs - a role they'll be in from the opening tip. ARIZONA STATE has won just two of nine tourney games but those wins came last season before an eventual title loss to USC. The Sun Devils have grabbed the cash in three of their last four tourney affairs but their 0-5 ATS record as dogs this season could spell trouble. They will also need to improve on their 4-12 ATS mark against a foe off a SU win this season if they hope to go deep. WASHINGTON last appeared in the title game in 2005 and their 4-7 SU and ATS record away or on a neutral court this season, including 0-4 ATS as dogs, suggests a longer wait. Yes, the $$$-burning Huskies have certainly played like dogs when taking points this season. Picked to finish last in the preseason polls, USC has once again proved the scribes wrong. The Trojans were an airtight 9-2 ATS as a dog but a soft 5-12-1 ATS as a favorite. Defensive grit makes them dangerous.

THE SLEEPER: UCLA

Like most teams in this loop, it was a lean year for the Bruins. With only one starter back from last year's 26-win team, Ben Howland's youngsters simply could not sustain success, going 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in conference when playing off a win. A full season of experience, along with Howland's glittering 34-15 SU mark in post-season play, makes for a solid double-dose of anticipation. Don't forget this: UCLA was 5-0 ATS against conference foes off back-to-back wins this season.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On USC as a dog

No team in this history of this league has won more conference tournament games (10) than the Trojans. Half of those wins were in underdog roles, including twice last year en route to winning this event. Only Princeton and Wisconsin allowed fewer points per game in Division 1 than the Trojans (57.2). All good reasons for USC to add to its sparkling 7-2 ATS mark as a puppy in this tourney.

BIG 12 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

2010-03-09T12:26:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri and Texas

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

The NCAA committee will probably hand out invitations to seven Big 12 schools, but can any of them be trusted in this event? KANSAS does arrive with some gaudy offensive and defensive numbers but their rusty 2-11 ATS mark with 3 or more days of rest this season is cause for concern. So is their 1-5 ATS record over their last six tourney games. After last year's opening round loss to Baylor, expect the Jayhawks to be all business. HC Bill's Self's 14-3 ATS post-season log against a foe off a SU dog win ensures that. A strong showing at the Sprint Center could vault KANSAS STATE into a No. 1 seed. However, the Wildcats' one-and-out each of the last two seasons along with their 1-3 SU and ATS record as tourney chalk this decade leaves us with too many questions. Can MISSOURI make it two in a row? The defending champs ran through the field last year (3-0 SUATS) and their 6-3-1 ATS record in their last 10 as tourney dogs offers much promise. Keep an eye on the Tigers in the opening matchup as they are a solid 5-1 ATS vs. a conference opponent off a SU loss this season. TEXAS has advanced to the semis or finals in each of the last 4 years. Before the loss to Baylor last season, it was the Jayhawks who handed them the boot the previous three seasons. With injuries in their starting backcourt, the Longhorns may not get the chance to avenge any of those losses.

THE SLEEPER: Baylor

The Bears caught the conference by surprise when they lost to Missouri in the title game last season. There will be no surprises this year. Baylor has rung the register in 11 of 16 conference tourney games this decade and they were 6-0 ATS this season in games against foes off a double-digit win. The question is: can they be trusted laying points? Not according to the history books as they are 0-3 SU and ATS lifetime in this tourney as a favorite. Play accordingly.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Kansas

The Jayhawks were stunned in the opening round of this tournament last year by Baylor and have been stumbling to the finish line this season. So why all the support, you ask? Simple. Kansas is the only team in the country to rank in the Top 10 in the three key statistical categories, namely: Offensive Field Goal Percentage, Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Rebounding. An angry Jayhawk, fueled with ammo like this, can be lethal. Note: avoid the Jayhawks in the opening round if they face a losing team as they are 1-9 ATS versus sub .500 conference foes under Bill Self.

BIG 10 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

2010-03-09T12:24:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

With five returning starters and conference MVP Evan Turner hitting on cylinders, OHIO STATE appears poised to improve on last year's runner-up finish. Led by a smothering defense that has allowed an average of 60.5 PPG in this tourney over the last five years, the Buckeyes have brought home in the cash in six of their last seven tourney appearances. Thad Matta's bunch also comes armed with the nation's 5th-rated Offensive Field Goal Percentage (49.5). Keep in mind that the No. 1 seed has made it to the finals (3-2 SU and ATS) in five of the last six years. When you talk about defense, usually the conversation starts with MICHIGAN STATE. And Tom Izzo's Spartans haven't disappointed, allowing a meager 59.9 PPG in the 12-year history of this event. The nation's third-rated team on the boards (+9.7 RPG) will once again bring the ‘D' as they look to "rebound" from a 2nd-round KO last year as the top-seed. Don't' forget about their stellar 8-1 ATS mark as dogs of more than 2 points in this tourney (see more below). WISCONSIN will also be looking to make amends for their quick cameo last year but this quirky stat keeps us at bay: the Badgers have been favored in 12 of their last 18 conference tourney games. The six times they were taking points? How about 1-5 ATS? Last year's champ, PURDUE, appeared ready to defend their crown behind five returning starters but the loss of leading scorer Robbie Hummel may be too much to overcome. Until they beat the Buckeyes in last year's title game, the Boilermakers were just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their previous 13 tourney tilts.

THE SLEEPER: Illinois

The Illini bring strong Big 10 tourney history (22-10 SU) and solid current form to the table, thus making them a desirable commodity. One the few teams in college basketball to have performed equally or better in conference competition than outside this season, Illinois was 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in Big 10 games away from Champaign this season.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Michigan State (+) vs Ohio State

Tom Izzo needs no pat on the back when it comes to the postseason, where he is 46-23 SU and 40-28-1 ATS in his career. Inside those numbers, the Izz is 31-11-1 ATS when facing a foe off a SU and ATS win and 7-2 ATS when seeking revenge. The Buckeyes sent him packing from this event last year and beat them in the only regular season meeting this year. Remember this: the Spartans are 20-5 SU and ATS this decade when playing with same-season conference revenge!

Big East Tournament Preview

2010-03-09T12:22:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Pittsburgh

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

The Mecca of basketball should once again witness another competitive, exciting Big East tourney. SYRACUSE lost to Louisville in last year's title game and the top-ranked Orange are primed to make another title run. The No. 1 seed in this event has appeared in the championship game in each of the last three years and 12 of the previous 17. Boeheim's boys are always a tough out, posting a solid 11-3 SU and ATS record over their last 14 tourney games. Their 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark away from the Carrier Dome this season along with their 11-1 SU and ATS log vs .700 or greater opposition has us believing they just might squeeze out their first conference crown since the 2005-2006 campaign. VILLANOVA has been bounced from this tourney by a No. 1 seed in each of the previous three years and their mediocre 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS record vs. better than .750 opposition this year doesn't give us much faith they can stop that trend anytime soon. The Wildcats are, however, 19-1 SU and 14-5 ATS vs. 750 or less foes this year and a solid 19-5 SU and 14-10 ATS off a SU win so expect a prolonged stay in the Big Apple. The Mounties of WEST VIRGINIA are flat out dangerous. Along with five returning starters, they arrive with a veteran coach in Bob Huggins who is a no-nonsense 32-10 SU and 24-17-1 ATS in conference tourney affairs, including 5-1-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than a trey. Unfortunately, their 3-7 ATS log vs .800 or greater opposition along with their surprising 1-5 ATS mark with revenge this season will probably have us heading for the hills. PITTSBURGH came alive down the stretch (8-1 last nine games) and they'll be eager to make amends for last year's one-and-done. The defensive-minded Panthers are always worth a look when they show up as dogs (see more below).

THE SLEEPER: Connecticut

Huskies dragged their tails until Jim Calhoun returned to the sidelines in mid February. The bottom line is there is simply too much pedigree to overlook (read: 21-9 SU last Beast East tourney games). Remember, through all their woes this season, UConn was still 4-2-1 ATS as a conference puppy.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Pittsburgh as a dog

We placed the Panthers in this spot, under the same parameters last season, and they delivered the bacon. The fact of the matter is Pitt is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 roles as a Big East tourney dog - with all seven wins straight up. They were also 7-1-1 ATS as a conference dog this season, and yes - all seven wins were straight up! It ain't broke, and we're not about to fix it.

ACC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

2010-03-09T12:19:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:

Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Clemson

THE WAY WE SEE IT:

DUKE will be looking to advance to the title game for the 11th time in 14 years (6-3-1 ATS playing for the cheese) and defend their ACC crown (beat FSU last year). The good news for the Blue Devils, as they added yet another ACC regular-season trophy to their mantelpiece, is that the top seed has appeared in the championship game in 14 of the last 19 years. The bad news is regular season champs have walked away with the title only six times. However, the Blue Devils' 6-0 ATS mark versus opponents off a double-digit win and their 6-2 ATS record versus conference foes off a SU win this season calls for a repeat performance and a probable No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. MARYLAND has been a dominant 8-1 ATS as conference favorites this season and an equally impressive 7-1 ATS as pick or favorites of les than 5 points in this event. While the Terps have bullied sub .690 opposition with a 14-0 SU and 9-1 ATS mark this season, keep in mind that they are just 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS versus .690 or greater foes. VIRGINIA TECH is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this tourney over the last two years but Seth Greenberg's slumping Hokies are just 3-6 ATS as favorites of more than 5 points this season and 1-6 ATS as tourney favorites of more than 2 points. Keep a close eye on which role CLEMSON shows up in. The Tigers have been a solid 9-2 ATS as favorites 8 or more points this season but only 1-6 ATS when they arrive as dogs. Clemmie's one-and-done showing in three of the last four years in this tourney is also cause for concern.

THE SLEEPER: North Carolina

Heels enter this event red-faced and that could spell danger for other teams. For openers, our database informs us that defending national champions in conference tourneys are: 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS against opponents off BB wins, 14-6 SU and ATS versus .633 or greater opposition and 11-3 SU and ATS versus No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds. Whew! We're not anxious to fade numbers like that, not with Roy Williams, who has NEVER been an underdog in a conference tournament game. You know what to do.

KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On North Carolina as a dog

See ‘The Sleeper' writeup above and play accordingly. Remember, not only is UNC down this season but so, too, is the rest of the conference.

Rounding Third and Heading Home...CBB's Last Home Games

2010-03-02T15:56:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

In the blink of an eye the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament will begin its annual pulse-pounding extravaganza. In all likelihood hearts will be broken, a new champion crowned, and memories of upsets and game-winning shots will leave the court in assured dramatic fashion when the 'Big Dance' takes center stage Thursday, March 18th.

Before we take in all the 'Big Dance' has to offer, there remains the final portion of the regular season as teams jockey for position prior to conference seeding tournament action. As you know, the higher the finish in the regular season standings the better the slotting in conference tourney play. And with it comes my favorite time of the regular season, namely Last Home Games.

Last Home Games often times find teams putting their best foot forward. This happens primarily because teams choose to honor outgoing seniors in their final home game. It is 'their day', a game played in recognition of the sweat and toil laid on the line by seniors on the squad in their four years at the university. These games also carry added significance from other emotional angles as well.

Most teams look to leave a favorable impression in their final home game of the season. Adding fuel to the fire, revenge is a great performance enhancer in Last Home Game scenarios. Playing off a loss (or a string of defeats) tends to bring out the best in these finales. So, too, does playing in the role of an underdog, especially when it involves winning teams.

In fact, a search of my powerful database shows me that, on the blind, double-digit (+10 or more points) underdogs in their final home game of the season are a rather nifty 69-46-3 ATS since 1990.

In addition, home dogs in their Last Home Game who won their previous game straight up as an underdog are just as impressive, going 69-47-5 ATS. And if these teams own a win percentage of .464 or more they are 35-15-2 ATS, including 28-9-1 ATS when seeking revenge. FYI: We could see as many as four of these plays on this weekend's card. They are, Georgia, Maryland, Notre Dame and St. Bonaventure.

That's it for now. I'm heading home and getting ready for the Big Dance, if you know what I mean...

SITTING ON THE BUBBLE...9 Teams To Watch

2010-02-22T22:05:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

Get your dancing shoes out. With just three weeks remaining in the regular season portion of the 2009-10 college basketball campaign talk of the NCAA Tournament becomes more and more a matter of serious discussion.

For teams that are sitting ‘on the bubble' it becomes crunch time and with it the pressure begins to mount. As Elvis said, "it's now or never." And while there are always post-season conference tournaments for most teams to impress the NCAA tournament committee, the truth is most teams' fate are virtually sealed well before these events tip off. Let me explain.

Outside of winning a conference tournament the fact of the matter is unless teams own both a winning overall and winning conference record for the season the chance of being invited to the ‘dance' is slim and remote. Teams who post 20 wins for the season often times find that unless they were a ‘double-winner' the NCAA is likely to kick them to the curb. And for a lot of the right reasons, we might add. They recognize the fact that 20-win teams that ended up the season with a losing record in conference play likely picked up the bulk of the victories against inferior non-conference competition and it just doesn't cut the mustard in the panel's eyes.

With this thought in mind, I present of group of nine teams from lined conferences that all have a shot at 20 wins this season who are all currently .500 or worse in conference play in games through February 21. They are:

ACC - Georgia Tech

Big East: Connecticut, Notre Dame, South Florida

BIG 10 -Minnesota, Northwestern

CUSA: Southern Mississippi

Missouri Valley: Missouri State

SEC - Mississippi

Notice that any of the nine teams outlined above could catch fire and close out the season a double-winner (20 wins and winning conference log). Their performance to date, however, says otherwise. Collectively, this unit has posted a sterling 96-20 SU and 54-30 ATS outside the conference this season. In conference play, though, they are just a combined 55-67 SU and 59-58-5 ATS.

Worse, in conference games as a ‘pick' or favorite these wannabes are just 28-35-2 ATS this season, including 6-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a spread loss of five or more points. Put these same group of guys up against a foe that scored 77 or less points in its last game and they nearly drop off the radar screen, going 2-13-1 ATS this season.

Thus, unless they suddenly change their ways - and I can't recall the last time a leopard changed its spots - its likely this group of nine will perform not-so-great under the pressure of laying points and having to win over the course of the next three weeks. The heat is on. Let's watch and see...

NBA AT THE BREAK... Teams and Trends to Ponder

2010-02-16T22:02:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

Some say the NBA is simply an acronym for Nothing But Aggravation. Others contend it's merely a Nice Bankroll Additive. Whatever your take, there is no better time than the present - with Pro Basketball taking a time out for the All-Star break - to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the playoffs is about to take off.

What we've seen thus far is some teams have excelled against foes that do not own a winning record, such as the Hawks (18-8 ATS) and the Kings (17-9-1 ATS), while others have struggled in games against lousy competition, such as the Mavericks (9-17 ATS), the Nets (8-16-1 ATS) and the Hornets (8-18 ATS).

On the flip, a handful of teams have risen to the occasion when squaring off against quality, winning opposition - teams like the Cavaliers (21-4 SU and 16-7-2 ATS), the Hornets 18-9 ATS) and the Thunder (19-9 ATS). The Wizards are biggest money burner in games against winning teams (7-14 ATS), season to date.

Here's a quick look at some of the GOOD, BAD, and UGLY team trends on every team and how they have fared SU (Straight Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) this season in games played through the All-Star break. In addition, I also break down performance records for each team in games versus .500 or less and greater than .500 opponents this campaign. Do your homework now, and enjoy the rest of the season...

ATLANTA

Good: 12-2 ATS vs. .375 or less opp

Bad: 1-4 ATS as dog less than five points

Ugly: 0-3 ATS with no rest vs. division

Vs. .500 or less: 19-7 SU, 18-8 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 15-10 SU, 14-11 ATS

BOSTON

Good: 6-1-1 ATS pick or favorite 4 or less points

Bad: 1-7 ATS favorites 12 or more points

Ugly: 1-11 ATS home off loss

Vs. .500 or less: 23-6 SU, 10-19 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 9-12 SU, 9-11-1 ATS

CHICAGO

Good: 5-0-1 ATS vs. division opp off loss

Bad: 3-9 ATS away off SU and ATS loss

Ugly: 1-5 ATS off SU favorite loss

Vs. .500 or less: 13-12 SU, 10-13-2 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 12-14 SU, 14-12 ATS

CLEVELAND

Good: 8-0 SU and ATS vs. .750 or greater opp

Bad: 1-4 ATS home with no rest

Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS vs. opp with 3+ days rest

Vs. .500 or less: 20-6 SU, 10-16 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 21-4 SU, 16-7-2 ATS

DALLAS

Good: 7-1 ATS away off loss

Bad: 3-16 ATS home vs. non-division opp

Ugly: 0-4 ATS off BB SU and ATS losses

Vs. .500 or less: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 14-12 SU, 12-14 ATS

DENVER

Good: 7-0-1 ATS home vs opp off double-digit win

Bad: 1-6 ATS off SU dog win

Ugly: 0-4 ATS away vs. opp off SU dog win

Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

DETROIT

Good: 4-1-1 ATS vs. .250 or less opp

Bad: 4-14-2 ATS off ATS loss 4 or more points

Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS fav off SU and ATS loss

Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-16-2 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 6-16 SU, 10-11-1 ATS

GOLDEN STATE

Good: 7-1 ATS dog vs. unrested opp

Bad: 2-6 SU and ATS fav less 6 points

Ugly: 1-5 ATS off loss vs. opp of SU dog win

Vs. .500 or less: 10-15, 12-12-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 4-22 SU, 16-10 ATS

HOUSTON

Good: 3-0 ATS vs. opp with 3 more days rest

Bad: 2-9 ATS fav with revenge

Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs. non div opp off SU dog win

Vs. .500 or less: 18-8, 13-13 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 9-16 SU, 11-14 ATS

INDIANA

Good: 5-0 ATS double-digit dog

Bad: 1-5 ATS off loss vs div opp

Ugly: 1-7 ATS dog 3 less points

Vs. .500 or less: 14-16 SU, 13-17 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 4-18 SU, 9-13 ATS

LA CLIPPERS

Good: 5-1-1 ATS fav vs Eastern Conference

Bad: 1-6 ATS dog vs opp off double-digit win

Ugly: 0-7 ATS with rest vs. con opp off BB SU and ATS losses

Vs. .500 or less: 14-15 SU, 13-15-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 7-16 SU, 11-12 ATS

LA LAKERS

Good: 6-1 ATS away vs. opp off double-digit loss

Bad: 2-7-1 ATS fav 5 less points

Ugly: 1-6 ATS av vs opp off BB SU and ATS wins

Vs. .500 or less: 23-3 SU, 14-12 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 18-10 SU, 11-15-2 ATS

MEMPHIS

Good: 12-1 ATS off win vs. opp of loss

Bad: 3-8 ATS away off loss

Ugly: 0-5 ATS off loss vs opp off SU and ATS win

Vs. .500 or less: 12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 14-18 SU, 16-16 ATS

MIAMI

Good: 10-2 ATS vs. less .400 opp

Bad: 1-5 ATS vs. opp off SU dog win

Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS off 3 wins

Vs. .500 or less: 16-10 SU, 14-12 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 10-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS

MILWAUKEE

Good: 7-1 ATS no rest vs unrested opp

Bad: 1-5 ATS off SU dog win vs. opp off win

Ugly: 0-3 ATS off 3-0 SU and ATS

Vs. .500 or less: 19-11 SU, 19-11 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 5-16 SU, 12-9 ATS

MINNESOTA

Good: 9-0 ATS dog less 4 points

Bad: 4-11 ATS off BB losses vs opp off loss

Ugly: 0-5 ATS vs unrested con opp

Vs. .500 or less: 8-20 SU, 15-13 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 5-20 SU, 13-12 ATS

NEW JERSEY

Good: 4-0 ATS double-digit div dog

Bad: 12-27-2 ATS vs. non div opp

Ugly: 0-3 SU and ATS fav

Vs. .500 or less: 4-21 SU, 8-16-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 0-27 SU, 11-15-1 ATS

NEW ORLEANS

Good: 10-2 ATS dog more 7 points

Bad: 2-10 ATS fav off win

Ugly: 0-9 ATS vs. less .300 opp

Vs. .500 or less: 15-11 SU, 8-18 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 13-14 SU, 18-9 ATS

NEW YORK

Good: 8-1 ATS off loss 14 more points

Bad: 1-5 ATS off double-digit win

Ugly: 1-6 ATS away with no rest

Vs. .500 or less: 14-18 SU, 14-17-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 5-14 SU, 9-10 ATS

OKLAHOMA CITY

Good: 14-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss

Bad: 2-6 ATS vs unrested opp

Ugly: 1-6 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opp off BB wins

Vs. .500 or less: 16-7 SU, 13-10 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS

ORLANDO

Good: 8-0 ATS vs. unrested opp off win

Bad: 1-5 ATS vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses

Ugly: 1-7 ATS home off SU and ATS win

Vs. .500 or less: 22-7 SU, 15-12-2 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 14-11 SU, 9-13-3 ATS

PHILADELPHIA

Good: 5-0 ATS dog more 10 points

Bad: 7-18 ATS home

Ugly: 1-8 ATS home dog

Vs. .500 or less: 13-17 SU, 12-18 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 7-15 SU, 11-11 ATS

PHOENIX

Good: 4-0 ATS away vs opp off BB SU and ATS losses

Bad: 2-7 ATS off win 18 more points

Ugly: 0-5-1 ATS with revenge vs. unrested opp

Vs. .500 or less: 17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 14-13 SU, 14-12-1 ATS

PORTLAND

Good: 5-0 ATS no rest vs. opp of loss

Bad: 2-6-1 ATS off SU and ATS loss vs. opp off SU and ATS win

Ugly: 0-4 ATS off win vs. unrested opp

Vs. .500 or less: 18-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 13-15 SU, 15-12-1 ATS

SACRAMENTO

Good: 8-1 double-digit dog

Bad: 3-9 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opp off win

Ugly: 0-5 ATS away vs. opp off SU favorite loss

Vs. .500 or less: 15-12 SU, 17-9-1 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 3-22 SU, 10-14-1 ATS

SAN ANTONIO

Good: 5-1 ATS off double-digit win vs opp off BB wins

Bad: 2-5 ATS dog 2 more points

Ugly: 1-8 ATS off division

Vs. .500 or less: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 10-13 SU, 10-13 ATS

TORONTO

Good: 8-2 ATS vs unrested opp

Bad: 3-9 ATS with no rest

Ugly: 1-7 ATS away off loss vs. non div opp

Vs. .500 or less: 21-10 SU, 17-14 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 8-13 SU, 10-11 ATS

UTAH

Good: 9-0 SU and ATS home vs unrested opp

Bad: 2-5 ATS vs. div opp off loss

Ugly: 0-5 ATS vav more 7 points vs div opp off loss

Vs. .500 or less: 17-7 SU, 14-10 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 15-12 SU, 17-8-2 ATS

WASHINGTON

Good: 4-1 ATS off win less 4 points

Bad: 1-6 ATS vs. .750 greater opp

Ugly: 1-10 ATS fav more 2 points

Vs. .500 or less: 11-18 SU, 11-15-3 ATS

Vs. winning opp: 6-15 SU, 7-14 ATS

END OF THE LINE...A Decade of College Football Streaks

2010-02-10T09:25:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

With the 2009-10 College Football season having drawn to a conclusion, it marks the end of an initial decade of results from the new millennium. With that, I queried our powerful database, looking for teams that have outperformed others in the spread wars. What I found was most interesting.

Here is a capsule report of how College Football teams have fared ATS (Against The Spread) in their next game in four critical roles. Pay close attention. These teams represent the very best and very worst performers this decade. All results from 1/1/2000 through the end of the 2009 season. Keep this list handy for the start of a new decade next fall, because after all you can never begin to prepare too early...

Teams off a Straight Up Favorite Loss

Rice • 7-1

Arizona • 8-2

Fresno State • 1-13

Indiana • 1-7

Wyoming • 1-7

Teams off a Straight Up Underdog Win

Boise State • 4-0

Middle Tennessee State • 10-1

Oklahoma • 5-1

Southern Cal • 0-6

Florida State • 1-6

Teams off 3 Wins Exact

Purdue • 6-0-1

Texas Tech • 1-7

Washington • 1-7

Central Florida • 1-6

Central Michigan • 1-6

Northwestern • 1-5

Teams off 3 Losses Exact

Texas A&M • 6-0

Kentucky • 5-1

Florida Atlantic • 0-5

Pittsburgh • 0-4

Purdue • 1-5

Louisiana Tech • 1-5-1

HOME AND AWAY DICHOTOMIES...Know Where Your Team Performs Best

2010-02-02T17:52:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

With the 2009-10 College Hoops regular season entering the month before the Big Dance, it's important to get a pulse on how teams are performing both at home and on the road this campaign.

While there is no certainty that teams will continue to either over-or-under achieve in their best or worst roles, there is no sense in hoping teams will change their stripes at this stage of the season.

Let's examine the Top Five best and the very worst results by teams in games played at home and on the road through Monday, January 31of this season. All results are ATS...

COLLEGE BASKETBALL HOME TEAMS

Moneymakers:

1. Kansas State 7-1
2. San Jose State 7-1
3. Villanova 5-1
4. Wichita State 5-1-1
5. Oklahoma State 4-1-1

Moneyburners:

1. Duquesne 0-5
2. Massachusetts 0-5
3. TCU 1-9
4. Penn State 1-7
5. South Alabama 1-7-1

COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROAD TEAMS

Moneymakers:

1. St. Mary's 6-1
2. Maryland 5-1
3. Mississippi 5-1
4. Northern Iowa 5-1-1
5. Syracuse, Villanova 4-1

Moneyburners:

1. Denver 0-8
2. Washington 0-5
3. California 0-4-1
4. Stanford 1-7
5. Ohio State, Western Kentucky 1-6

There you have it. The best and worst performances by teams in a starring role to date this season. While not quite Oscar worthy, it's best to remember that forewarned is forearmed...

FACT OR FICTION...NBA 2nd Half Season Betting Systems

2010-01-26T22:12:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

With the College Bowl games now in the rear view mirror and a new Super Bowl champion about to be crowned, our focus shifts to the NBA where teams are now engaged in the 2nd half the season.

With that, let's check your handicapping prowess as we take a look at a handful of handicapping theories that apply to teams playing from Game 42 out during the regular season in the NBA. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1990, prior to the start of the current 2009-10 season...

1. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE-DIGIT WINS DOMINATE TEAMS OFF BACK-TO-BACK DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES.

Fiction. The fact of the matter is these teams are just 52-59-1 ATS, including 23-32-1 ATS at home.

At home against .367 or greater opponents they dip to 6-14-1 ATS. Worse, at home with a win percentage of less than .677 they are 1-12-1 ATS when facing a .367 or greater foe.

2. FACT OR FICTION: DOUBLE-DIGIT DOGS OFF SU WIN AS A DOUBLE DIGIT-DOG ARE JUST GETTING STARTED.

Fact. That's confirmed by the fact that these teams are 32-18 ATS, including 15-6 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS wins.

Better yet, put these guys up against an opponent off a SU and ATS win of six or more points and they zoom to 10-1 ATS.

3. FACT OR FICTION: DOGS OFF A SU LOSS AS DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES BOUNCE BACK BIG THE NEXT GAME VERSUS AN OPPONENT OFF A SU AND ATS LOSS.

Fiction. Quite the opposite, considering the fact that they are 9-17 ATS, including 6-15 ATS away.

Home or away, they are virtual no-shows if the opponent lost Su as a favorite in its last game, going 1-11 ATS.

4. FACT OR FICTION: ROAD WHO ARE 0-3 SU AND ATS THEIR LAST 3 GAMES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHEN FACING AN OPPONENT THAT IS 3-0 SU AND ATS IN ITS LAST THREE GAMES.

Fiction. The truth of the matter is while struggling these teams bring ‘value' to the contest as they are 64-51-3 ATS, including 20-10-1 ATS when taking more than 10 points.

Better yet, when taking more than 10 points in same conference games they are an eye-opening 12-1-1 ATS.

5. FACT OR FICTION: TEAMS OFF THREE STRAIGHT-UP WINS IN A ROW AS AN UNDERDOG CONTINUE THEIR WINNING WAYS.

Fact. Momentum goes a long way in the NBA. Teams off three consecutive upset wins in a row are 38-28-1 ATS.

Put them up against division foes and they really turn things up, going 17-5 ATS, including 15-2 ATS versus sub .550 opposition.

There you have it. Five Super Systems to follow the 2^nd half of this season. Happy hunting.

WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS

2010-01-19T22:12:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

It's Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Miami for Super Bowl XLIV. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on who those two teams will be. Our database does, too.

There are generally two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week's card. You can look at them statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

If we were interviewing handicappers we would have varying opinions on why any of the four teams will and advance. Ranging from players to fundamentals to situations, the answers would be all over the board.

But since our database has a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers. Here are some of a half-dozen questions we posed to the database and the answers we found surround NFL Championship games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise...

Q - How have home teams fared in this game?
A - NFC hosts are 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS, while AFC home teams are 18-11 SU and 15-14 ATS.

Q -Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?
A - Favorites have owned the edge, going 38-19 SU and 32-25 ATS, including 29-17 SU and ATS when laying less than 10 points.

Q - How do teams that own the better record perform?
A - As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 37-16 SU and 31-22 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of les than 10 points these better record teams are 28-14 ATS.

Q - How do road teams playing off a road game fare?
A - Not all that well, as you might imagine. These guys are just 9-20 SU and 12-17 ATS and 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back road games.

Q - How have teams that lost their final game of the regular season done in title games if they were playing with a week of rest after the loss?
A - Teams that were defeated in the their regular season finale are just 13-13 SU and 10-16 ATS in these games if they had a week off to prepare for their Division playoff game.

Q -How has the Over/Under fared in these games?
A - Surprisingly, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder have gone ‘Over' in title games since 1990. Games with a total of more than 46 points have gone ‘Over' the number in 14 of 18 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 20-8-2 to the ‘Over' as well.

There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week's card. Enjoy the games...

NFL PLAYOFF REST - OR RUST?

2010-01-11T22:12:00Z

By Marc Lawrence

It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle. But such is not the case today. As Bob Dylan so sagely put it, "The times are a-changin'."

Don't know if you've noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead. Perhaps it's been an over-adjustment by the linesmaker. Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in season finales. Whatever the case, to ask them to ‘turn on the switch' two weeks later simply isn't working.

Let's examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a ten to a twelve-team playoff format. Here are the results. (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners and dated listed are by ‘season'):

1990-2008

56-20 SU and 39-35-2 ATS

Overall an unspectacular 53% winning effort against the number. However, let's break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1990-1999

33-7 SU and 24-15-1 ATS

2000-2008

23-13 SU and 15-20-1 ATS

Uh, oh. Do you see what I see? Like the Exxon Valdez, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking oil at an alarming rate. In fact, over the last four years these teams appear to have blown a gasket, going just 7-9 SU and 4-12 ATS.

Now, what is your take on coaches resting starters in Week Sixteen of the season? So much for letting air out of the ‘momentum balloon'.

My suggestion this week would be to take the time and carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition as they enter their opening round games. It could be time well spent...