JoePa might not be smiling after this week
AS THE NOOSE
TIGHTENS
November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for
sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, College Football concludes
with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Hoops tip off a new
campaign. It's also a great time for handicappers as value-aplenty
abounds.
Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center
around postseason bowl games during Turkey Month. In particular, we like to zero
in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That's because the deeper
they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten.
As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially
when these perfect teams take to the road.
This is confirmed by the fact
that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the road from
Game Ten or later are 38-56-1 ATS. Put them up against a conference foe and they
dip to 28-42-1 ATS. This week's qualifying team are Alabama and Penn State (note: should they
remain perfect this week, we'll also be monitoring the progress of
Ball State,
Boise State and Utah next
week).
Put them on
a horse whose conference opponent is off a SUATS win and they slip to 8-22-1
ATS. And if they defeated this week's opponent last season they fall off the
horse, going 4-16-1 ATS. Penn State figures to be suffering
from neck burn this weekend. Gentlemen, mount your horses...
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