Larry Ness

NBA Notes: Cavs back on track (how about Nets?)

Larry Ness — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 21:06:00 GMT

The Cavs entered the All Star break with an NBA-best 43-11 mark. The team's 115-104 win over the Magic (last year's Eastern Conference champs) on Feb 11 gave them 13 straight wins, matching a franchise record (remains an NBA season-high for the 2009-10 season). The Cavs fell three games short of the NBA's longest win streak entering the All-Star break, a record 16 straight which was posted by the 1990-91 Los Angeles Lakers. The Cavs acquired Antwan Jamison from the Wizards right after the break but promptly saw their 13-game winning streak ended by losing at Denver 118-116 in OT.

James finished that game with a triple-double (43-13-15) but despite becoming the first NBA player with at least 43 points, 13 rebounds, 15 assists, two steals and four blocks in the same game, the Cavs couldn't overcome Carmelo (40 points) leading the Nuggets to the OT win. Jamison was ready to play in Cleveland's second game back but shot 0-for-12 from the floor in his first appearance as a Cav, as Cleveland lost 110-93 at Charlotte. Up next was a game in Orlando vs the Magic but despite Jamison getting 19 points and eight boards (9-of-14 FGs) and Shaq scoring 20 points on 9-of-10 shooting, the Cavs were all of a sudden on a three-game losing streak after losing, 101-95.

The Cavs would end their mini-slump with a 10-point win over the Hornets on Feb 23 and then routed the Celtics in Boston 108-88 in their next game. However, Shaq left that game with a sprained right thumb and a few days later had surgery on that injured thumb. He is expected to miss about two months and the team is hopeful he will return for at least part of the playoffs (we'll see?). However, the Cavs have not missed a beat, as since losing those first three games back from the break, the Cavs have won 11 of 12 games through March 18, although they are just 6-5 ATS in that span.

Cleveland's lone loss this current stretch was 92-85 at Milwaukee on March 6 but let me note that the Bucks have gone 12-2 SU (11-2-1 ATS) since Feb 19. Two days after that loss to the Bucks, the Cavs edged the Spurs 97-95 in Cleveland for the team's 50th win of the season. The Cavaliers were the first NBA team to 50 wins in a season for the first time in their history and it shouldn't go without mention that in each of the last two years, the two teams to reach 50 wins first went on to win the title ('08-09 Lakers and '07-08 Celtics).

My February 16 Ness Notes column anticipated a matchup between the Cavs (LeBron) and Lakers (Kobe) in this year's NBA Finals, a year delayed. Little has changed since then, although the Magic may feel as if they will have something to sat about that in the East while the Nuggets and "new-look" Mavs could "upset the apple cart" in the West. I've always believed that point-differential is the best indicator of a team's strength. The Cavs lead the NBA this year at plus-7.2 PPG, with only the Magic (plus-6.9 PPG) and the Lakers (plus-6.0 PPG) joining them as the only teams this season with a scoring margin of at least six per game.

The Cavs led the league in point-differential last year at 8.9 PPG but lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Magic. The Lakers, who owned last year's second-best point-differential at plus-7.7 PPG, went on to best the Magic in the NBA Finals, four games-to one. The team which has owned the year's best point-differential during the regular season has won six of the last 10 NBA titles, including the 2007-08 Celtics who finished with an impressive plus-10.3 point-differential. The NBA's first season came way back in 1946-47 and over its history, has seen just seven teams post point-differentials of better than plus-10.0 PPG.

The best-ever margin of victory for a season is owned by the 1971-72 LA Lakers at 12.3 PPG. That championship team won a league-record 33 consecutive games and its 69-13 record stood as a single-season best until the 1995-96 season. MJ's Bulls went 72-10 that year but fell just short of the Lakers average margin of victory, outscoring opponents by 12.2 PPG! Only one other NBA team has finished a year with a winning margin of above 12.0 PPG and that was the 1970-71 champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. Led by Lew Alcindor (what happened to that guy?) and the Big O, the Bucks finished 66-16 that year, outscoring opponents by an identical margin of 12.2 PPG.

The Bill Russell-led Celtics won 11 titles in 13 years but those legendary teams were able to outscore their opponents by more than nine PPG in only 1961-62 season (9.2)! The famous Wilt Chamberlain-led Philadelphia 76ers team of 1966-67 that went 68-13, outscored opponents by just 9.4 PPG in their championship season. More recently, Kareem and Magic led the Lakers to five titles in a nine-year period beginning in the 1979-80 season but just once, in the 1986-87 season, outscored opponents by as many as nine PPG (9.3)! Bird's Celtics won three titles from 1980-81 to 1985-86, outscoring opponents by more than nine PPG in just the 1985-86 season (9.4).

MJ's Bulls also outscored opponents by more than 10.0 PPG in both the 1991-92 season (10.4) and the 1996-97 season (10.8), both of which years ended in titles. If you have been counting, I've listed six teams with point-differentials of 10.0 or better. All six went on to win NBA championships in those season but there is a team which outscored opponents by better than 10.0 PPG (actually 11.1) and did not win an NBA title in that season. The 1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks were not able to repeat as NBA champions despite going 63-19.

That was the year the Lakers went 69-13 and set the all-record for point-differential (12.3) on their way to the Lakers' first NBA championship in Los Angeles since moving from Minneapolis. The Lakers beat the Bucks four games-to-two in the Western Conference finals, as West and Wilt out-lasted the Bucks of the Big O and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, a player who looked an awful like Lew Alcindor, the man who led the Bucks to the title in the 1970-71 season.

The Cavs own a 5 1/2-game lead over the Magic for the East's No. 1 seed (Cavs have 13 games left and the Magic 12), while the Lakers (14 games left) own a 3 1/2-game lead over the Nuggets (13) and a four-game lead over the Mavs (14) for the No.1 seed in the West. However, at the other end of the 'food chain,' the 7-61 Nets (with 14 games left in their season) need three more wins in order to avoid the title of "Worst NBA of All Time." It's fairly common knowledge that the 1972-73 Philadelphia Sixers finished 9-73 that season and have been the standard bearers of futility for nearly four decades.

The Nets open a four-game homestand on Saturday but get the Raptors and Heat in the first two games, both of whom are fighting for playoff berths (and positioning). Then it's home to the Kings (currently 6-28 on the road) and the Pistons (7-26 on the road). A visit to Chicago is next (Bulls have lost nine in a row from Feb 27-Mar 18) and then back home for three more games. Problem here is that the Spurs and Suns are up first. Some good news comes with New Orleans being the final team of the three-game stretch and by the time the Hornets arrive in New Jersey on April 3, they'll be eliminated from the West's playoff race.

That stretch of seven home contests in eight games (with the lone away game being with slumping Chicago) gives the Nets a realistic chance to get to double digits in wins. If not, the best chances for wins in the team's final six games come April 4 at Washington (12-22 at home) and home to the Bulls on April 9. I've already discussed the Bulls situation and as for the Wizards, their "Big Three" now reside in Cleveland (Jamison), Dallas (Butler) and at home due to a suspension (Arenas). It's hard not to be rooting for the Nets to get those three more wins.

Join me back here early next week with an update on the Big Dance.

Good luck, Larry

NCAA Tournament by the Numbers

Larry Ness — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:05:00 GMT

The NCAA selection committee announced its 65-team field late Sunday afternoon. The NIT followed (32 teams), then the CBI (in its third season) and CollegeInsider.com Tournament also filled out their brackets with 16 teams apiece. That means 129 of 347 Division I schools will be playing over the next three weeks (37.2 percent). Compare that to the 68 of 120 football schools which competed in last season's 34 bowl games (56.7 percent). Note that 110 schools won 20 or more games (31.7 percent). As usual there was plenty of debate over which schools got left out.

However, unlike in the past couple of years, it was Illinois, Miss St and Va Tech from the so-called "power conferences," not schools from the mid-majors, which were claiming 'foul!' Virginia Tech (23-8) and Mississippi State (23-11) join last year's Florida team (23-10 pre-postseason) as one of those very rare power conference schools to win 23 games and not make the NCAA field. It was a bitter pill for the Hokies to swallow, as Tech became the first team to win 10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and get passed over by the committee (the fact that 9-7 Wake and 7-9 Ga Tech made it, although Va Tech went 2-0 vs those schools this year, didn't help).

It seems like the committee is damned if it does and damned if it doesn't. At-large bids were plentiful from schools outside of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC in 2003 (10) and 2004 (12). Although that number fell to nine in 2005 and eight in 2006 there was not much concern. However, at-large bids outside of the six power conferences fell to just six in both 2007 and 2008, then to just four last year. However, eight at-large bids were extended to non-power conference teams this year. The MWC placed four schools in the NCAA tourney field for the first time ever (three at-large bids for BYU, New Mexico and UNLV), joined by two at-large schools from the A-10 (Richmond and Xavier), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah St (WAC) and UTEP (C-USA). While mid-majors got eight at-large bids, a check of the top-16 seeds (four in each region) reveals that only New Mexico (No. 3 in the East) comes from a non-power conference.

There was no real surprise when it came to the four No. 1 seeds, although West Va seemed to think it was 'robbed.' Kansas was the overall No. 1 seed and with Arizona failing to make the field this year after 25 consecutive appearances, the Jayhawks' 21 straight appearances is now the longest active streak of any school. Kentucky earned its 10th No. 1 seed (Calipari became the first head coach to earn No. 1 seeds with three different schools, U Mass and Memphis being the other two), Duke its 11th (second-most to North Carolina's 13) and Syracuse its second-ever No. 1 seed (last came way back in 1980).

The final AP poll was released on Monday and Kansas (a No. 1 seed for a ninth time), the nation's preseason No. 1, enters the tournament as an unanimous No. 1, getting all 65 first-place votes. As I mentioned last week, being No. 1 in the final AP poll is not a good indicator of ultimate success in the Big Dance. Since Bob Knight’s 1975-76 team, the last to finish a season unbeaten at 32-0, entered that year’s tourney as No. 1 and won the title, just five schools have finished No. 1 in the AP’s final regular poll and gone on to win the title. The list includes UCLA (1995), Duke (1992), North Carolina (1982), Kentucky (1978) and Duke (2001). Doing the math, that’s just five in 33 years or 15.2 percent, not exactly a confidence-builder if you have a 'ticket' on Kansas to win it all.

Kansas and Kentucky each enter the tourney at 32-2 and both have a chance at matching the NCAA single-season record of 38 wins by "winning it all" (takes six games). Memphis went 38-2 in the 2007-08 season to set that record, although the NCAA stripped the Tigers of that record in August of 2009 because Memphis fielded an ineligible player (Derrick Rose). Five previous teams have won 37 games in a single season, starting with Duke in 1986 (37-3), UNLV in 1987 (37-2), Duke in 1999 (37-2), Illinois in 2005 (37-2) and Kansas in 2008 (37-3). Note that only Kansas won a championship in its 37-win season.

Seeding began back in 1979 and over the last 31 tourneys, a No. 1 seed has gone on the win the title 17 times, a No. 2 seed six times and a No. 3 seed four times. Two No. 6 seeds have won it all (Kansas in 1988 and NC State in 1983), Arizona won it as a No. 4 seed in 1997 and in the first year of the 64-team field, Villanova famously beat Georgetown as a No. 8 seed in 1985, the longest shot to capture the NCAA title since the tourney began seeding teams. You'll notice that no No. 5 or No. 7 seeds have ever won. Two No. 5 seeds have lost in the title game (Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002), while the furthest any No. 7 seed has gotten is the Ralph Sampson-led Virginia Cavaliers in 1984 (lost in the national semifinals to 49-47 in OT to Houston).

Those results seem to make all the talk about which were the last teams in and which teams were "unfairly" left out seem moot. Just four No. 8 seeds have ever made it to the Final 4 (UCLA in 1980, Villanova in 1985, North Carolina and Wisconsin, both in 2000). Penn reached the Final 4 in 1979 as a No. 9 seed and two No. 11 seeds have gotten that far. LSU was the first to do it back in 1986 and recently, 'Cinderella' George Mason Mason made a Final 4 appearance in 2006. Villanova is the only one of the schools to win and UCLA in 1980 is the only other to even make the championship game (lost to Louisville).

We now have 25 years of history to look at since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams (65 since 2001). I doubt anyone is unaware that a No. 1 seed has never lost an opening round game, going a perfect 100-0 vs the No. 16 seeds. In fact, just five No. 1 vs No. 16 matchups have been decided by five points or less, the first coming in 1985 (Michigan edged Fairleigh Dickinson 59-55) and the most recent coming in 1996 (Purdue 73-71 over Western Carolina). The most famous near-upset of a No. 1 seed by a 16-seed came when Princeton almost toppled Georgetown in 1989, falling 50-49. Somewhat forgotten is that another No. 1 seed barely escaped the first round that very same year, as Oklahoma edged East Tennessee St 72-71.

No. 2 seeds are 96-4 vs No. 15 seeds in the first round with Richmond upsetting Syracuse 73-69 back in 1991 marking the first occasion and Hampton beating Iowa State 58-57 in 2001 being the most recent occurrence. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are each 32-0 SU these past eight years, with No. 1 teams going 15-16-1 ATS and No. 2 seeds going 13-18-1. However, both top-seeds have been fairly profitable lately, with No. 1 seeds going 8-4 ATS and No. 2 seeds 7-4-1 the last three years (be careful taking those big points).

The TV talking heads love to rave about the 5 vs 12 matchups, as if No. 12 seeds regularly knock off No. 5 seeds. A check of the record book shows that No. 12 seeds are just 32-68 against No. 5 seeds all-time, a winning percentage of only .320. No. 12 seeds are 14-18 SU but 18-14 ATS vs No. 5 seeds the last eight years. In fact, the only lower seed with a winning record against a higher seed is No. 9 over No. 8, which should come as much of a surprise and could hardly be considered much of an upset. No. 9 seeds are 54-46 all-time vs No. 8 seeds, going 15-17 SU and 15-16-1 ATS these last eight years (talk about 'kissing your sister!').

The official NCAA Record Book defines an upset as being a win by a team seeded five or more places lower that the team it defeated. The very first year of the 64-team field (1985) saw 11 "upsets," as did the 2002 and 2006 (George Mason's year) tournaments. However, the "mother-lode" of upsets came in 1986, when LSU made its Final 4 run, as the Tigers pulled off a single-tourney record four upsets, accounting for one-third of the 12 upsets that year. There were only four upsets in last year's tourney but that wasn't the fewest. That came in 2007, when just three upsets occurred. Two No. 11s won in the first round that year (Winthrop over Notre Dame and VCU over Duke) and then No. 7 UNLV beat No. 2 Wisconsin in the second round.

Kentucky is looking for its eighth title and Calipari is looking to join Pitino as the only head coach to lead three different schools to a Final 4. Both Duke and Kansas are looking for their fourth titles, which would either school with the fifth-most championships of all time (UCLA has 11, Kentucky 7 plus Indiana and North Carolina five each). Coach K has made 10 Final 4 appearances (only Wooden with 12 and Smith with 11 own more) and with three titles (same as Bob Knight), only Rupp (four) and Wooden (10) have won more often. Kansas and Bill Self are looking for their second title in three years and a championship would make Self the ninth head coach with two NCAA titles (the most recent addition to that list was Billy Donovan of Florida, who did it in back-to-back seasons in 2006 and '07).

While the above schools are looking to become part of the NCAA history books, other schools in this year's tourney are just looking for a win (any win). Arkansas-Pine Bluff plays Winthrop in Tuesday's play-in game, participating in the school's first-ever NCAA tournament (Golden Lions opened the season 0-11 but enter their game with Winthrop having won 17 of their last 21). Joining Pine Bluff as an NCAA 'virgin' in 2010 is Wofford of the Southern Conference. The Terriers joined Division I in 1995-96 and their first winning season (16-14) came just last season. However, this year's team takes a 26-8 record and a No. 13-seed into its first-round game with Wisconsin.

Robert Morris is back in the Big Dance for the second straight year representing the Northeast Conference but no NEC school has won anything in the NCAAs other than a play-in game or a game held to determine the last-seeded team in a region. Murray State of the OVC is making its 14th NCAA appearance in its history. At 30-4, the Racers may be the only other school in this year's field other than Kansas and Duke with 30 wins but they are also hoping to break a 20-year NCAA losing streak for the conference. Murray State's upset of North Carolina St (a No. 3 seed) in 1988 was the OVC's last NCAA win and also marks the school's lone win in its 14 appearances.

Illinois owns 38 NCAA wins but has never won a championship, giving the Illini the unwanted title of school with the most wins without a championship. Oklahoma's 35 wins makes the Sooners second on that list but like the Illini, the Sooners failed to make this year's NCAA field. Texas is third on the list with 33 wins but the way the Longhorns have collapsed, they may not add to that record in this year's tourney. Texas opened the 2009-10 season 17-0 and achieved the school's first-ever No. 1 ranking on Jan 11 (two weeks). However, Texas has lost nine of its last 16 games and became the fifth school in NCAA history to hold the No. 1 ranking and then drop out of the poll in the same season (Longhorns fell out on March 1 and never returned).

Boston College owns the most wins (22) without ever reaching a Final 4 but the Eagles are not in this year's field. However, Missouri with 21 wins, is. BYU is making its 25th NCAA appearance and the Cougars own the distinction of most appearances without reaching a Final 4. Missouri is not far behind (23rd appearance) with Xavier (21st appearance) ranking third on the list. Getting back to BYU, the Cougars have not won an NCAA game since 1993, going 0-7 since 1995. The 'madness' begins Tuesday night and as I mentioned at the top, there are three other tourneys to keep us busy the next three weeks, as well.

Good luck, Larry

Selection Sunday: Three days out

Larry Ness — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:50:00 GMT

When the 2010 NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday it will be missing some pretty familiar names. U Conn and North Carolina both played in last year's Final 4 (Tar Heels notched the school's fifth title) but the Huskies bowed out of at-large consideration with an embarrassing 73-51 loss to St John's on Tuesday and the Tar Heels' ACC tournament ended Thursday night with a 62-58 loss to Georgia Tech. Indiana, which like North Carolina owns five national championships, lost to Northwestern 73-58 on Thursday, ending its season at 10-21. Tom Crean has a lot of work left to do, as his first season at Indiana ended with a 6-25 mark. UCLA, the all-time leader with 11 championships, beat Arizona 75-69 on Thursday afternoon ending the Wildcats run of 25 consecutive NCAA appearances (second-longest of all-time to North Carolina's 27 in a row from ) but the 14-17 Bruins will have to win two more games to earn a bid to this year's Big Dance.

I read on ESPN.com the other day that the last time that Arizona, Connecticut, Indiana, North Carolina and UCLA all missed the NCAA tournament in the same season occurred back in 1966, when only 22 schools were in the field. The first four are guaranteed to be left out of this year's Big Dance, while the Bruins can only qualify by winning the the Pac 10 tourney. If UCLA was do that, the Bruins would be 'dancing' with a 16-17 record. However, that's not to say that this year's field will be devoid of big names.

Duke, Kansas and Kentucky are all alive for No. 1 seeds. Those schools have combined for 13 national championships with Kentucky owning seven of them (2nd-most next to UCLA). Duke's been a No. 1 seed 10 times, the second-most of all time (North Carolina leads with 13), and it's chance for a No. 1 seed greatly improved with Syracuse losing its first Big East tourney game to Georgetown on Thursday afternoon. Kansas and Kentucky are near 'locks' to get No. 1 seeds come Sunday, which would give Kentucky its 10th and Kansas its ninth. Kansas will be making its 21st straight NCAA appearance, which is now the longest active streak with Arizona missing out this year.

Staying with Kentucky for a minute, John Calipari could be making some big news with his "first Wildcats team." Calipari owns an impressive postseason record, although he's yet to win an national championship. He's 21-9 (.714) in the NCAA tournament and 15–5 (.750) in the NIT. His teams have made eleven NCAA tournament appearances, including reaching the Sweet Sixteen seven times, the Elite Eight five times, the Final Four two times. He has coached five teams to the NIT, winning the NIT championship at Memphis in 2002.

Calipari is currently one of only four coaches in NCAA Division I history to lead two different schools to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament; North Carolina coach Roy Williams, Kansas coach Bill Self, and Louisville coach Rick Pitino are the others. As mentioned, Kentucky seems almost assured of getting a No. 1 seed this year, which means Calipari will move past Pitino, Self and Williams by leading a third school to a No. 1 seed. Pitino is the only head coach to have taken three different schools to the Final 4 (Providence, Kentucky and Louisville) but Calipari could match his rival this season by guiding the Wildcats to a Final 4 appearance this year at Lucas Stadium come April 3.

There are 347 teams in Division I and with more and more schools proving themselves capable of competing against schools from the "Big Six" conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10. Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC), recent talk has centered on increasing the field to 96 teams. The NCAA tournament expanded from 48 teams to 64 in 1985 and added a play-in game (65 teams) in 2001 when the number of automatic bids was increased from 30 to 31. Is a major expansion on the horizon? NCAA senior vice president Greg Shaheen was quoted earlier this week as saying, "it's pure speculation at this point," regarding that possibility.

The Big Six conferences typically grab the majority of the 34 at-large bids but this year the Pac 10 will be lucky to get even one at-large bid, the SEC figures to get no more than three at-large bids (four at the most) and the Big 10 could be limited to just three at-large bids as well, although four would be more likely. The Mountain West hates to be called a mid-major and this year San Diego St and UNLV could join tourney 'locks' BYU and New Mexico to give the MWC four teams in the Big Dance. The A-10 had hopes of placing five teams in the tourney about a month ago but heading into Friday's games, its looks like just Richmond, Temple and Xavier are getting in.

Prospective bubble teams have "played lucky" so far in the conference tourneys and will continue to "keep their fingers crossed" this weekend. Northern Iowa has won the MVC, Old Dominion the CAA and Butler the Horizon already, keeping those three conference champions from 'stealing' an at-large bid. St Mary's did upset Gonzaga in the WCC (Gaels first WCC tourney title since 1997) but most bracketology experts had the Gaels getting an at-large bid anyway. Therefore, Gonzaga's at-large bid just takes the place of the one slotted for St Mary's (no harm/no foul).

Most feel that UTEP (C-USA) and Utah State (WAC) both deserve at-large bids regardless of their respective conference tourney results, so any number of schools fate may very likely depend on the success of the Miners and Aggies, who both easily advanced with wins on Thursday to their respective conference semifinals. With both Memphis and UAB losing on Thursday, C-USA's only chance for an at-large bid now lies with regular season champ UTEP (15-1), if the Miners fail to win the tourney. The WAC has no viable at-large possibility other than regular season champ Utah State (14-2).

Big 10 co-champions Michigan St, Ohio St and Purdue are clearly NCAA locks, as is Wisconsin. Illinois (18-13), which plays Wisconsin on Friday, Minnesota (19-12) which takes on Purdue and Northwestern (20-12) which faces Michigan St, are all at-large possibilities. Illinois rates a slight edge heading into Friday's play because of its 10-8 league mark, as Minnesota finished 9-9 in the Big 10 and Northwestern with an almost too much to overcome 7-11 conference record. I'll mention again here that the Wildcats are the only school from one of the nation's "Big Six" conferences to have never made an NCAA appearance.

Billy Donovan led a veteran-laden Florida team to back-to-back NCAA titles in 2006 and '07 but his Gators have been regulated to the NIT in each of the last two years. Florida's 78-69 win over Auburn on Thursday sets up what could be called an "NCAA elimination game" on Friday for the Gators (21-11/9-7) with Mississippi St (21-10/9-7). Ole Miss (21-9/9-7) likely needs to beat Tennessee (24-7/11-5) on Friday to have any at-large hopes. The Big East will likely send eight teams to the Big Dance and the Big 12 figures to get seven bids (Missouri's probably in, even after its 75-60 loss to Nebraska).

The ACC is an interesting case, as less than three weeks ago, Duke was the lone school ranked in the AP's top-25 poll (that last occurred back in December of 1977, when it was only a top-20). Maryland wound up tying Duke (both went 13-3) for the ACC's regular season title and has joined the Blue Devils in the top-25 these last two weeks, giving the ACC two ranked teams. However, most experts have the league getting seven bids. That seems way too many, as Georgia Tech finished just 7-9 in the ACC during the regular season plus Wake and Clemson were just awful on Thursday. The Demon Deacons lost 83-62 to last-place Miami-Fl (4-12) and the Tigers were beaten 59-57 by NC State (5-11). Do the Yellow Jackets really get credit for edging pathetic North Carolina, 62-58? We'll see.

Cal won the weakest Pac 10 league in decades with a 13-5 mark and its 90-74 win over Oregon on Thursday ups the Bears record to 22-9 on the season. ASU's at-large chances are gone with Thursday's 70-61 loss to Stanford but Washington (22-9/11-7) beat Oregon State and now plays 14-17 Stanford on Friday for the right to advance to Saturday's title game. I guess the "state of the Pac 10" can best be described by the fact that two 14-17 teams are in the league's conference semifinals. The winner of the Washington/Stanford game will meet the winner of Cal/UCLA.

Cal and Washington were top-15 teams in both preseason polls but the Bears dropped out of the rankings by late-November with Washington falling out in early-January. No Pac 10 team was anywhere to be found in the AP rankings by January 11, marking the first time that had happened since the final AP poll of the 1986-87 season. The last time the Pac 10 placed just one team in the NCAA field was 1978 (when the tourney featured just 32 teams) and since the NCAA field was expanded to 64 teams, no Big Six conference has failed to place at least two schools in every tournament. One would think the committee couldn't possibly not take the Pac 10's regular season champ, regardless of its fate in this week's tourney, but the Pac 10 has very little support this year.

I'll be back on Monday afternoon with my "Tournament by the Numbers" column.

Good luck, Larry

CBB Notes: No. 1 ranking good or bad?

Larry Ness — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:14:00 GMT

North Carolina began last season as the unanimous No. 1 in both preseason polls and the Tar Heels confirmed all the hype with one of the most dominating runs in NCAA tournament history. North Carolina won all six of its tournament games by double figures (average victory margin of 20.2 PPG), including beating Michigan State 89-72 in last year's national championship game at Ford Field in Detroit. However, the Tar Heels were not the nation's top-ranked team heading into the tournament, as North Carolina was ranked No. 2 in the final regular season AP poll, as the Louisville Cardinals claimed the top spot.

I bring this up as Monday's (3/8) latest AP poll saw Kansas move back into the top spot. The Jayhawks were a solid No. 1 in the preseason (55 of 65 first-place votes) and Monday's ranking marks the school's 14th week at No. 1 this season (including the preseason poll). Syracuse was No. 1 last week but it lost at Louisville on Saturday (last game at historic Freedom Hall), falling to No. 3 after just a one week stay at the top. Kentucky is No. 2 after clinching the school's 44th SEC title this past week and also held the top spot for one week (Jan 25th poll).

Texas is the only other school to top the AP rankings this year (Longhorns were ranked No. 1 for two weeks beginning on Jan 11) but Texas has imploded since its 17-0 start, finishing 6-8 over its last 14 games and ending up a distant 6th in the Big 12 (9-7). Kansas, Kentucky , Duke and Villanova have all been ranked in the top-10 each week with just one regular season poll remaining, while Georgetown, Michigan State, Purdue, Tennessee and West Va make a total of nine schools ranked in each one of the AP's top-25 polls this season.

The final regular season AP poll will be taken after all schools have completed their respective conference tourneys and released late next Sunday or early Monday. Does any school really want that final No. 1 ranking prior to the NCAA tournament? History says no way! The only school to win the national championship entering the tournament as the AP's No. 1 team the last 10 years is Duke in 2001. Just three of the other nine No. 1 teams even made it as far as the Final 4. A look at the history book shows that teams entering the NCAA tournament No. 1 have not fared well since the heyday of John Wooden's Bruins.

UCLA won 10 of 12 titles from 1964-75, seven times entering the tournament as the nation's top-ranked team. Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, the last to finish a season unbeaten at 32-0, also entered that year's tourney as No. 1. However, since that season, just five schools have finished No. 1 in the AP's final regular poll and gone on to win the title. Along with Duke in 2001, the list includes UCLA (1995), Duke (1992), North Carolina (1982) and Kentucky (1978). Doing the math, that's just five in 33 years or 15.2 percent, not exactly making this year's AP's final regular season No. 1 an overwhelming favorite to "cut down the nets" at Lucas Oil Stadium come April 5.

While the nation's top-ranked team at the end of the regular season is certainly no "sure thing," it's not as if too many teams have "come out of nowhere to win," either. Just three schools have entered the "Big Dance" unranked since Knight's legendary Hoosiers team of 1976 and gone on to win the national title. North Carolina State (26-10) won it all in 1983, Villanova (25-10) won the title in 1985 and Kansas (27-11) won the national championship in 1988. However, since Manning's 1988 Jayhawks team (a span of 21 years), just three more schools have entered the NCAA tournament ranked higher than 10th yet gone on to win it all.

That list includes Arizona in 1997 (ranked 15th and with a No. 4 seed), Syracuse in 2003 (ranked 13th and with a No. 3 seed) plus Florida in 2006 (ranked 11th and with a No. 3 seed). It should be noted that Arizona Wildcats of 1997 are the only school in tournament history to upset three No. 1 seeds on its way to winning a national championship. Arizona beat Kansas (No. 1 in the Southeast) in the Sweet 16, North Carolina (No. 1 in the East) in the national semifinals and Kentucky (No. 1 in the West) in the championship game.

I'll be back before the weekend with an update on the conference tourneys and then next Monday with my annual "Tournament by the Numbers" column.

Good luck, Larry

Ness Notes: Conference Tourneys (Part 2)

Larry Ness — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 22:16:00 GMT

Seven of 30 conference tourneys got underway Tuesday through Thursday (Atlantic Sun, Big South, Horizon League, MVC, Northeast Conference, OVC, and the Patriot League). The only league champ 'safe' for a tourney bid out of this group regardless of the tourney results is No. 12 Butler (26-4) from the Horizon. The Bulldogs were the lone school to go through its respective conference unbeaten (18-0) and the Bulldogs will take an 18-game winning streak into their game on Saturday (had bye into the semifinals). The Bulldogs also get to host any tourney game they play (13-0 TY and winners of 32 of their last 34 home games).

Northern Iowa of the MVC won the regular season title with a 15-3 mark (25-4 overall) but a late-season loss to pathetic Evansville has Panther fans worried. Northern Iowa can ill-afford a loss Friday afternoon to 14-18 Drake. The Atlantic Sun entered its eight-team tourney (bottom three schools didn't participate) with four schools at 14-6 and defending tourney champ East Tenn St seeded fifth at 13-7. Three of those four 14-6 schools lost, including preseason favorite Lipscomb (No. 1 seed). Jacksonville is the only 14-6 team to survive (won regular season title LY but then lost in the tourney) and will play Mercer while East Tenn St gets 13-19 Kennesaw St, which upset Lipscomb. It's definitely "tourney time."

In the Big South, Winthrop (No. 3 seed) easily took care of Radford (LY's regular and tourney champs) on Thursday to advance to Saturday's title game at this year's regular season champ Coastal Carolina (now 28-5 and seeking the school's third NCAA berth and first since 1993). The Chanticleers (can't make up that nickname) are 16-1 at home this year. The higher seeds all got home games in the NEC quarterfinals (four teams sat out the tourney) and all four advanced despite going 0-3-1 ATS. Play resumes Sunday with No. 1 seed Quinnipiac (22-8) hosting 14-16 LIU and No. 2 seed and defending champ Robert Morris (21-11) hosting 16-4 Mount St Mary's. The winners meet March 10 at the site of the higher seed.

The OVC resumes on Friday as No. 1 seed Murray State (17-1) takes on Eastern Illinois and No. 2 seed Morehead State (15-3) takes on Tenn Tech. Saturday's final figures to match the top-two seeds and would be a rematch (at a neutral site) of the Feb 25 game in which Morehead State beat Murray St 70-65, ending the Racers' 17-game overall winning streak (also Murray State's lone conference loss this season). Morehead St won this tourney last year and while Murray State has 13 all-time NCAA appearances, they last 'danced' in 2006. The Patriot League resumes play on Sunday (semis), after three of the four top seeds advanced this past Wednesday. No. 1 seed Lehigh is the favorite (will host American) but watch out for Holy Cross which upset Bucknell (No. 2 seed), as the 9-21 Crusaders could be wearing this year's 'slipper' in this league (will play at Lafayette, which it beat at Holy Cross 73-46 on Feb 6).

Binghamton had the No. 1 seed in last year's America East tourney and punched its ticket to the Big Dance by beating UMBC in the title game before losing 86-62 in the NCAA's opening round. Head coach Kevin Broadus was placed on paid leave last October after starting PG Tiki Mayben was arrested on drug charges and five teammates were dismissed for unspecified violations. Mark Macon (former Temple star) was named interim coach but the Beracats finished 13-18 (8-8) this year. Earlier this week the school announced it was voluntarily withdrawing from the America East Conference tournament, citing "possible distractions" while the school addresses a review of the troubled program. The No. 8 vs. No. 9 game (scheduled for Thursday) was eliminated from the bracket and the teams finishing lower than Binghamton (No. 5 seed) in the conference standings were all moved up one slot with the tourney now beginning on Saturday.

Nine more conference tourneys get started this weekend (Friday through Sunday). I mentioned the America East tourney in my earlier article this week and here will comment on the other eight, listed in alphabetical order by conference. Weber St won the Big Sky tourney in 2007, making the school's 14th NCAA appearance. The Wildcats won the regular season last year (15-1) but lost on its home court in the tourney to Portland St. Weber State (13-3) is back as the No. 1 seed and will once again host the tourney where the Eagles have won 12 straight since losing their season opener at the Dee Events Center 66-60 to Utah. Portland St, which has won this tourney the last two years, comes in just 12-17 (7-9) and Weber State's biggest threat comes from Northern Colorado in just its third season as a Division I member. The Bears went 5-24 in 2005-06 and 4-24 the following year but this year come in 24-6 and at 12-4 in league play, as the No. 2 seed (top-two seeds get byes into the semifinals).

A number of experts seem to think that Old Dominion (23-8 / 15-3) will get an at-large invite even if the Monarchs don't win the Colonial Athletic Association tourney but I'm not convinced. The top four seeds get byes into the quarterfinals and that doesn't include last year's regular season and tourney champ Virginia Commonwealth (20-8 / 11-7) which this year is seeded just fifth. VCU has won the last three regular season titles with two NCAA appearances in 2007 and 2009 (nine all-time). ODU last 'danced' in 2007 (its 9th NCAA trip) but there is some sentiment for both No. 2 seed Northeastern (19-11 / 14-4) which last danced in 1991 (Jim Calhoun led the Huskies to five NCAA appearances from 1981-1986) and No. 3 William & Mary (20-9 / 12-6) which has never danced (lone postseason appearance was an NIT invite back in 1982-83).

Siena head coach Fran McCaffery leads the Saints into the Metro Athletic Association tourney with a 24-6 overall record and the No. 1 seed with a 17-1 league mark. Siena has won both the MAAC’s regular season and tournament titles the last two years, crushing 4th-seeded Vanderbilt 83-62 in the 2008 NCAA tournament and then last season beating Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime. When McCaffery led the Saints to the 2008 NCAA tourney, he became just the 31st coach to take three different programs to the Big Dance and he is the first to do so with three programs from one-bid leagues (conference's that sent just one team the year his program advanced). Both Siena and No. 2 seed Fairfield (20-9 / 13-5) get byes into the quarterfinals but with Siena's at-large bubble busted, the Saints know they must win to go dancing. The tourney is being held on Siena's home court and with a 35-game home winning streak, it's safe to say the Saints are favored to earn a third straight NCAA trip? If so, will it cost the school its coach, who should certainly be offered a bigger job?

Davidson won last year's regular season title in the Southern Conference but Chattanooga took the tourney title. Davidson has been the "big dog" of this conference lately, earning five of its 10 all-time NCAA trips since 1998 under head coach Bob McKillop (few will forget the school's Elite 8 run in 2008). Chattanooga also owns 10 all-time NCAA trips but this year Davidson went just 16-14 (11-7) and Chattanooga 14-17 (6-12). The real story in the Southern Conference this year has been Wofford. The Terriers joined Division I in 1995-96 but their first winning season came just last year (16-14). With all five starters returning, Wofford got the No. 1 seed with a 15-3 league mark and since December 29 when the Terriers were 7-7 overall, they are 16-1 with their only loss coming 70-68 at Charleston.

The Mid-American Conference tourney starts with on-campus first round games on Sunday (Mar 7). The top-four seeds get byes into the quarterfinals, played March 11-13 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. Ten schools played their last regular season games on Thursday night battling for seeding positions while Kent State visits Akron on Friday (both are 12-3) with the winner getting the top-seed. The MAC hasn't had an at-large bid since 1999, so it will come as no surprise when only the tourney champ goes dancing again in 2010. Keith Dambrot has now led Akron to five straight 20-win seasons and the Zips won the MAC tourney last year, earning the school's second NCCA bid (1st came under Bob Huggins in 1986). Kent State has been the league's best team for a decade, winning 20 or more games for 10 straight seasons (1999-2008) with five NCAA trips. The Flashes went just 19-15 last year but are 22-8 entering Friday's game at Akron.

North Dakota State won both the regular season and tourney titles of the Summitt League last year. It was quite an accomplishment, coming in the school's first full-fledged year of Division I membership. However, last year's team was led by four fifth-year starters and this year's team struggled to an 11-17 overall mark (8-10). Oakland was the league's top team this year (23-8 / 17-1) and will try to earn its second-ever tourney title. The Golden Grizzlies joined Division I in 1999-2000 and the school's only other NCAA bid came back in 2005 when Oakland won the conference tourney after entering with a 9-18 record (took a 12-18 mark into the NCAA tournament). Oral Roberts (19-12 / 13-5) is just the third seed but the Golden Eagles own wins this year over current-No. 8 New Mexico (28-3), Missouri (22-8) and Stanford. Let's also note that Oral Roberts knows how to win this time of year with three straight NCAA tourney appearances from 2006-08.

All 13 teams take part in the Sun Belt Conference tourney which begins with five opening round games on Saturday in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Troy, Middle Tennessee St and North Texas all tied for the best record in conference at 13-5 but after the tie-breaker scenarios were worked out, the Trojans landed the top seed, the Mean Green took the second seed and the Blue Raiders the third. The top three spots in this event receive a bye into the quarterfinals. However, it's fourth-seeded Western Kentucky which is the most decorated team in this event owning seven titles, including the last two (Hilltoppers have made 21 all-time NCAA appearances, including a Final 4 in 1971). The quarterfinals are on Sunday. No. 1 seed Troy won the school's first regular season title since winning the Atlantic Sun regular season crown in 2004 (lone NCAA bid came in 2003). Second-seeded North Texas (21-8) has now posted at least 20 wins in four straight seasons for the first time in school history. Its lone SBC title came in 2007, giving the school its second-ever NCAA (first came in 1988). Third-seed Middle Tennessee St shared the East Division title along with Troy, marking the first time the program has won a share of any league title since 1988-89 (most recent of six NCAA appearances).

The Orleans Arena in Las Vegas will serve as host to the 24th-annual West Coast Conference tourney for the second straight year. Gonzaga won the tourney last year (first time ever at a neutral site) and the Bulldogs won the WCC regular season title for the 10th straight year this season, finishing 12-2 within the league. Saint Mary's finished second with an 11-3 mark (24-5) and both schools get byes into Sunday's semifinals. Portland (20-9 / 10-4) and San Francisco get byes into Saturday's quarterfinals. The opening round is Friday and it should be noted that San Diego (10-20 / 3-11) is the only team aside from Gonzaga to win this event in the last 11 years (won in 2003 and 2008) but the Toreros are hardly a threat this year. Portland made news earlier this year with the school's first national ranking in 50 years and St Mary's would love a third shot at Gonzaga but the Bulldogs are the overwhelming favorites. Gonzaga has won this tourney a record 10 times and the Bulldogs have made 12 straight championship game appearances, winning nine times.

Have a great weekend, Larry.

Ness Notes: Conference Tourneys Begin

Larry Ness — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:52:00 GMT

Rumor has it that Beatles were not too concerned when the 1910 Fruitgum Company released the song "One, Two Three Red Light" in the late 1960s (with good reason). However, as I sat down at my computer Monday night, that song came to mind. I guess because on Saturday both No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Kentucky lost (first time nation's top-two teams had lost on the same day since January of 2006) and then No. 3 Purdue, playing with Robbie Hummel the rest of the season, lost at home to Michigan State on Sunday. Come Monday (nod to Jimmy Buffett) and "one, two, three," Syracuse was the nation's latest No. 1 team.

The 27-2 Orange are having quite a season. They were unranked in the AP's preseason poll (coaches had them No. 25) and become just the sixth school ever to open a year unranked in the AP and rise to No. 1 that same season (Kansas in the 1989-90 season was the last to do it). This marks the first time Boeheim's team has been No. 1 since a six-week stint in the 1989-90 season, the same year that Kansas opened unranked and rose to No. 1. Looking for another coincidence? The only other season in which Boeheim's Syracuse team held the No. 1 ranking was the preseason poll of 1987-88. Which school would win the national championship that year? How about Kansas, coached by Larry Brown and led by Danny Manning. How does Kansas vs Syracuse on the day after Easter at Lucas Oil Stadium sound for "all the marbles?"

Kansas fell to No. 2 (was the preseason No. 1 and has been No. 1 in 13 polls), Kentucky fell to No. 3 (was No. 1 for one week) and Duke is now No. 4. If the tournament field was picked as of March 1, the AP's top-four teams would very likely be the four No. 1 seeds. Texas, the only other school to be ranked No. 1 this year (held the spot for two straight weeks), made some history of it's own on Monday as well. Texas became just the fourth school to fall out of the rankings in the same season in which it had held the No. 1 ranking (I never said is was good history!).

The only conference (31 in all) which doesn't play a postseason tourney is the Ivy League. Cornell won its first outright Ivy League title in 20 years in 2008 going 14-0 and last year became the first Ivy League school other than Penn or Princeton to claim consecutive outright Ivy League titles by going 11-3. This year's team is 11-1 and owns a two-game lead with two games to play this weekend at Brown and Yale (both schools are 11-18 overall, including 5-7 in Ivy play). The Big Red should have little trouble clinching a third straight title and with 25 wins have already set a school single-season record for wins (2007-08 team won 22). Now all Cornell needs is a better performance in the first round of the Big Dance, as the Big Red have lost 73-53 (Stanford) and 78-59 (Missouri) the last two years.

Thirty conferences will hold tourneys over the next two weeks with eight beginning play from Tuesday through Thursday of this week. The Big South, Horizon League and OVC begin Tuesday, the Atlantic Sun and Patriot League on Wednesday with the America East, MVC and Northeast Conference beginning on Thursday. A number of these conference have odd schedules. The Horizon League begins on Tuesday , then resumes March 5 and 6 for its quarter and semifinal games with the championship game being played on March 9 (next Tuesday).

The Big South starts Tuesday and plays every other day with the title game coming on Saturday (3/6). The Patriot League opens on Wednesday, plays its semifinal games on Sunday and waits all the way until March 12 (a week from Friday) to play its championship game. The America East starts Thursday and plays through Sunday but waits until March 13 for its title game. The Northeast Conference also plays this Thursday through Sunday and its championship game is not scheduled until March 10. Regular season champs in the vast majority of these conferences know an at-large bid does not await them and that to 'go dancing,' they must win on the court.

We saw 17 of 24 regular season champs capture their respective conference tourneys (I'm excluding the "Big 6" conferences) last year with just two of the seven losers getting at-large bids (Butler from the Horizon and Xavier from the A-10 were the exceptions). However, those schools have been well-established as "major players" in the 2000s and had strong resumes which few regular season champs from the majority of the other 24 conferences playing these next two weeks won't have. It's win and you're in, lose and you're out for most.

No. 12 Butler (26-4) takes a nation-best 18-game winning streak into the Horizon League tourney, having not lost since Christmas (fell 67-57 at UAB on Dec 22). The Bulldogs were the only school to go through an entire conference season unbeaten (18-0) and are not in any danger of missing this year's tourney regardless of what happens this next week. Head coach Brad Stevens became the 3rd-youngest head coach in NCAA Division I history to lead a team to 30 wins in a season when the Bulldogs went 30-4 in his first year as a head coach (2007-08). When Butler beat Valparaiso last Friday, Stevens broke the record set by Mark Few of Gonzaga in 2002 and tied by Mark Fox of Nevada in 2007 for the most wins in his first three years of coaching (he's 82-14, .854).

While Butler is safely in the Big Dance whether it captures the Horizon League tourney or not, the only other regular season champ of the eight conferences beginning their tourneys Tuesday-Thursday which holds legitimate at-large credentials is Northern Iowa of the MVC (25-4 / 15-3). The Panthers own a very good RPI but 'laid a pretty big egg' by losing at Evansville last week. They should be OK but they did themselves no favors with that loss to the Purple Aces, who entered that game having lost 17 of their previous 18. An early loss in the MVC tourney could be devastating.

Starting Tuesday along with the Horizon League are the Big South and OVC. Radford won both the regular season and conference tourney titles last year but come in as the league's No. 2 seed this season (18-11 / 13-5). Coastal Carolina was the league's best team in the regular season (26-5 / 15-3) and will be gunning for the school's third NCAA bid (1991, 1993). Tenn-Martin won the OVC regular season title last year but the Skyhawks finished 1-17 in league play this year and didn't even qualify the the tourney. Morehead State won this tourney last year.

Murray State led the conference this year (27-4 / 17-1) but may have to get by Morehead State again this week (Eagles handed the Racers their only league loss this year on Feb 25) if it wants to break a three-year NCAA drought. The Racers are no strangers to NCAA play with 13 all-time appearances but none since 2006. However, the school’s lone NCAA win in those 13 appearances came back in 1988 when it beat No. 3-seeded North Carolina St before losing 61-58 to Kansas, which led by Danny Manning, would go on to capture the national title. That’s something to shoot for.

The Atlantic Sun and Patriot League begin on Wednesday. The Atlantic Sun has four schools tied with 14-6 league marks. Preseason favorite Lipscomb is the No. 1 seed (Bisons are looking for the first-ever NCAA trip), Jacksonville (last year's regular season champs and a Final 4 runner-up to UCLA way back in 1970 with Artis Gilmore) is seeded second, Belmont (represented the league in the NCAA field from 2006-08) is the third seed and Campbell gets the fourth seed (Camels 'danced' in 1992). East Tenn St, which won this tourney last year and then gave Pitt a scare in the first round (lost 72-62) finished at 13-7, one game behind the other four schools. Should be fun. American won both the regular season and tourney titles in the Patriot League last year but the Eagles are just 10-19 (7-7) this year. Lehigh won the regular season (19-10 / 10-4) this year and the Mountain Hawks are looking for their fourth NCAA bid (1985, 1988 and 2004).

Joining the MVC in opening play on Thursday are the America East and the Northeast Conference. Binghamton won both the regular season and tourney titles last year but the Bearcats are just 13-18 (8-8) this year. Stony Brook led the way this year (21-8 / 13-3) and the Seawolves are quite a surprise. Steve Pikiell is in his fifth year at the helm of the basketball program, which made the jump from Division III to Division I in 1999. Pikiell guided the Seawolves to their best season in Division I history in 2008-09, going 16-14 overall and 8-8 (tied for fourth-place). Can the Seawolves cap an already record-setting season with an invite to the Big Dance in 2010?

That leaves just the Northeast Conference. Robert Morris won both the regular season and conference tourney titles last year, as the Colonials made their sixth NCAA appearance. Robert Morris went 15-3 in league play this year but that mark was matched by Quinnipiac, which gets the No. 1 seed by virtue of its 87-79 win over Robert Morris in the only meeting between the two schools this year. Quinnipiac is consistently ranked among the best colleges by U.S. News & World Report and the surveys conducted by its Polling Institute are featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and on national network news broadcasts. However, the Bobcats have never gone 'dancing.' Will that change this year?

I'll be back on Friday with more on the conference tourneys.

Good luck, Larry

CBB Notes: Three Sundays out

Larry Ness — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 15:03:00 GMT

The first NCAA tournament was played in 1939 and featured just an eight-team field. Oregon beat Ohio State 46-33 in the title game played in Evanston, Illinois. The Ducks have not only never won a second title but they've also failed to even reach another Final 4. However, that's nothing compared to the drought the host school (Northwestern) for the initial event has suffered. The Wildcats have never made an appearance in the NCAA tournament, giving them the distinction of being the only school from one of the current "Big Six" conferences to be able to make that unwanted claim.

"Selection Sunday" is just around the corner (March 14) and unless the Wildcats somehow win the Big 10 tourney (at Conseco Fieldhouse this year), they'll be NIT bound this postseason (at best). Optimism was running high back in November, as Northwestern had tied the school record for regular season wins (17) last year, including victories at Michigan State (league champ and national runner-up to North Carolina) plus at Purdue (Sweet 16 team which won 27 games). The Wildcats are 11-1 in non-conference play (lost to Butler) but are 7-9 in the Big 10 and 18-10 overall.

Sunday's 70-63 loss at Wisconsin was survivable but Northwestern's 13-point road loss at Iowa on Feb 10 (Hawkeyes are 9-19 overall, 3-12 in the Big 10) and its 81-70 home loss to Penn State on Feb 17 could be 'killers.' Penn St entered that game 0-12 in league play and won at Evanston by 11 points even though its best (only?) player, Talor Battle (19.0-5.6-4.0), made just 2-of-8 FG attempts while scoring only 10 points. Bill Carmody's team will now likely have to set its sights on winning the school's first postseason game since 1983 in the NIT, CBI or College Insider.

Taking a cheap shot at Northwestern is easy, so I'll aim a little higher. Since the beginning (1939), 35 schools have won just one national championship, eight others have been able to win two titles and two schools, Duke (1991, 1992 and 2001) and Kansas (1952, 1988 and 2008), have won three apiece. Just four schools have been able to win more than three. Starting at the top is UCLA with 11 (1964-65, 1967-73, 1975 and 1995), Kentucky with seven (1948-49, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996 and 1998), plus Indiana (1940, 1953, 1976, 1981 and 1987) and North Carolina (1957, 1982, 1993, 2005 and 2009) with five each.

Kentucky (the nation's No. 2 team with a 27-1 record) is the only one of those four schools which will even be in this year's tourney field. North Carolina has gone from winning its fifth national title last season to a 3-10 ACC mark (tied for last a 12-team league) and an overall record of 14-14. Ben Howland's UCLA teams went to three straight Final 4s from 2005-08 and last year won 26 games but the Bruins are just 13-14 overall this year, including 8-7 in the weakest Pac 10 in decades. As for Indiana, Tom Crean went 6-25 in his first season at Bloomington last year and his Hoosiers are 9-18 this season, including 3-12 in Big 10 play.

The most recent AP poll came out last Monday (2/22) and No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Kentucky, No. 5 Duke and No. 8 Villanova stand as the only four schools to have been among the top-10 all season long. Kansas and Kentucky look like 'locks' as No. 1 seeds while both Duke and Villanova are both still 'alive' for a spot on "the top line." Both schools chances were helped by Purdue's recent misfortune. The No. 3 Boilermakers won 59-58 at Minnesota this past Wednesday, giving them 10 straight wins (all in the Big 10) and an overall record of 24-3 (12-3 in the Big 10).

However, the team's most versatile player, Robbie Hummel, injured his knee on a drive to the basket in the first half against the Golden Gophers. The do-it-all 6-8 junior forward will miss the remainder of the season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. Hummel ranks second on the team scoring 15.7 PPG and by pulling down 6.9 RPG. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten and are enjoying their highest national ranking since 1994. Purdue now heads into Sunday's showdown with Michigan State (21-7 / 11-4), one of three huge "showdown games" this weekend, without one of its biggest stars.

The other two games are being played on Saturday. No. 4 Syracuse (26-2/ 13-2) will host No. 8 Villanova (23-4 / 12-3) while No. 10 New Mexico (26-3 / 12-2) visits No. 13 BYU (26-3 / 11-2). While games of this nature are 'old hat' in the Big East, The Lobos/Cougars game is arguably the biggest MWC in-season game ever played. Both schools are 26-3, the best 29-game starts-ever in their respective histories. New Mexico has won 12 straight conference games (matching the MWC record set by Utah in 2004-05) and is just two wins shy of a single-season school record. The Lobos went 28-5 in 1995-96 under head coach Dave Bliss, a name the school would likely want none of us to bring up.

BYU improved to 15-0 at home this season with its 82-68 win over San Diego St on Wednesday and will take a 21-game home winning streak into Saturday's contest. It's being billed as "the biggest regular season showdown in Mountain West history," as a No. 10 vs No. 13 matchup is the biggest-ever (based on rankings) in conference history. Now let's return to the Big East. While Villanova has been ranked in the top-10 all season (opened at No. 5 in the preseason and climbed to as high as No. 2 earlier this season), Syracuse opened unranked in the AP poll (was No. 25 in the coaches' poll).

Syracuse shocked then No. 13 Cal 95-73 in the semifinals of the Coaches vs Cancer Classic at MSG (12/19) and followed the next night by crushing then-No. 6 Carolina, 87-71. The Orange would go from unranked after the season's first regular season poll to No. 10 in the poll of November 23. Jim Boeheim's team has hardly "looked back." Syracuse would climb to No. 2 in the AP poll on Feb 8, the school's highest ranking since it held the No. 1 spot in the polls for six weeks back in the 1989-90 season.

Syracuse's 23-1 start to open the year marks the best in school history and its current 26-2 mark does not include a road loss. The Orange are 8-0 on the Big East road this year (3-0 in neutral site games) and a win at Louisville on March 6 would give the school its first perfect regular season mark in road games in 92 years. However, first things first. Syracuse will host Villanova on Saturday, a school which made the Final 4 last year (first Final 4 since its championship season of 1985) and like Syracuse, opened the 2009-10 season with the best start in school history by going 20-1 through Feb 2. 'Nova's 74-49 win over USF on Wednesday snapped a two-game losing streak (three of five slide as well) and sets ups Saturday's "first-place showdown."

Duke was No. 5 in the latest AP poll this past Monday and incredibly was the only ACC team in the top-25. The last time that had occurred was back in December of 1977 when No. 5 North Carolina was the only ranked ACC team in what was then a top-20. Duke beat Tulsa 70-52 on Thursday night, giving the Blue Devils their 77th straight home win over a non-conference foe, as well as their 41st straight home win over an unranked opponent. Duke's "Big Three," guards Scheyer (18.8-3.4-5.4) and Smith (17.9-2.7-2.9) plus forward Singler (16.9-7.2), could just lead the 24-4 Dookies to another No. 1 seed.

No. 15 Butler will attempt to finish its Horizon League season unbeaten on Friday night at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs are 25-4 (17-0 in Horizon play) and own the nation's longest active winning streak at 17 straight (Murray St had won 17 in a row as well before its 70-65 los at Morehead St on Thursday). Butler's 17-game winning streak is already a school record and a ninth straight win over the Crusaders would give the Bulldogs the Horizon's first unbeaten regular season since Wisconsin-Green Bay went 16-0 back in 1995-96, when it was known as the Mid-Continent Conference.

If Butler were not to win, that would leave just No. 1 Kansas as the nation's lone conference unbeaten. The Jayhawks are currently 13-0 in the Big 12 and have no 'cakewalk' the rest of the way. They visit Stillwater, Ok on Saturday to face the Cowboys who are 14-1 at home this year. Kansas State (23-4 and No. 6 in the AP) follows on March 3 and while Kansas is 31-2 against the Wildcats since the inception of the Big 12, the Jayhawks just barely escaped Manhattan back on January 30 with an 81-79 OT win.

If the Jayhawks can make it past the Cowboys and Wildcats, the Tigers of Missouri await in Columbia, Mo on March 6. Missouri beat Kansas last year 62-60 in Mizzou Arena, where the team had won 32 straight games before it lost 77-74 to Texas A&M on Feb 3. I'll be back next Tuesday with a closer look at the prospective 2010 NCAA-field.

Good luck, Larry

CBB Notes: BracketBuster games and more

Larry Ness — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 22:06:00 GMT

Kansas held its No. 1 ranking this past Monday (Jayhawks were a solid preseason No. 1 and have owned the No. 1 spot in 11 of 14 regular season polls) and that night picked up a hard-earned 59-54 win at College Station over Texas A&M. It was the Aggies' first home loss of the season and moved Kansas to 11-0 in the Big 12. The Jayhawks are looking to nail down a sixth straight Big 12 regular season crown which would match legendary Kansas head coach Phog Allen, who won or shared six consecutive Missouri Valley titles from 1921-27. Kansas is also trying to join its 2001-02 squad as the only teams to finish unbeaten in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks own the longest active home winning streak in college hoops (56 in a row).

Kansas was the only Division I school to finish unbeaten in conference play back in that 2001-02 season and over the past eight seasons just 19 schools have managed that feat. The most schools to stay unbeaten throughout their respective seasons in any one year has been three and Kansas is one of only four schools still unbeaten in conference play heading into this weekend. Joining the Jayhawks are No. 18 Butler (17-0 in the Horizon) and Murray State (16-0 in the OVC). Those schools have both won 16 straight overall games, the longest active winning streak in college hoops. Sam Houston State (11-0 in the Southland) is the fourth remaining conference unbeaten.

The Jayhawks own the longest active home winning streak in college basketball (56 in a row) and will host Colorado (12-13 / 3-8) on Saturday. Sam Houston State will play at Texas-San Antonio (15-9 / 5-6) on Saturday while both Butler and Murray State will put their 16-game winning streaks on the line this weekend but not their unbeaten conference records. That's because both the Bulldogs and Racers will be participating in ESPN's eighth annual BracketBusters extravaganza, a two-day college basketball event.

The BracketBusters concept provides schools outside the "Big Six" leagues an opportunity to play non-conference opponents less than a month before Selection Sunday. Each conference selects its participating teams before the season and the matchups for the event are determined by ESPN in conjunction with the conferences. Ninety-eight schools representing 14 conferences will play a total of 49 games, of which 11 will be televised on the ESPN family of networks. The 22 teams represent 10 conferences, including seven 2009 NCAA Tournament participants (Akron, Butler, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Siena, Utah State and Virginia Commonwealth).

The marquee TV games are Old Dominion (CAA) at Northern Iowa (MVC) on Friday at 7:00 ET plus four games on Saturday. Morgan State of the MEAC will play at Murray State of the OVC at 12 noon ET while Siena (22-5) visits No. 18 Butler at 2:00 ET. Both the Racers and Bulldogs will look to extend their winning streaks to 17 in a row. Akron (MAC) and Virginia Commonwealth (CAA), both NCAA teams last year, play at 4:00 ET and a long day ends at midnight ET when Wichita State (MVC) visits Utah State of the WAC.

ESPN has tried to make these BracketBuster games seem significant but truthfully, they have been more hype than substance. Few if any schools have made any real 'hay' out of a BracketBuster win, although I will acknowledge that a number of schools have cost themselves by losing one of them. I'd argue that a number of schools "had better win" this weekend or their at-large chances are all but over. In comparison, I couldn't make a case for even one school securing an at-large berth with a win. As so often is the case in college basketball, coaches are a bigger story than the actual players or individual schools. Here's a few notes on the top-five TV matchups.

Old Dominion at Northern Iowa (Friday at 7:00 ET): The CAA has sent multiple teams to the NCAA tourney before and at 21-7 overall (13-3 in CAA play), the Monarchs are hoping their 61-57 win at Georgetown on December 19 plus a win here in Cedar Rapids over 23-3 Northern Iowa (Panthers are unranked by the AP but are 24th in the coaches' poll) would be enough to get them at-large consideration if they are unable to win the CAA tourney March 5-8 in Richmond. ODU is the only CAA school with any realistic chance at an at-large bid. Northern Iowa went to three straight NCAA tournaments under Greg McDermott from 2004-06 (lost in the first round each time), getting at-large bids in both 2005 and '06. Ben Jacobson took over as head coach when McDermott left after the '06 season and after back-to-back 18-win seasons, led Northern Iowa to the MVC tourney title last year (just second in school history) and the school's fifth NCAA appearance. The Panthers should be an at-large selection even if they don't win the MVC tourney ("Arch Madness" in St Louis from March 4-7) this year but a home loss sure won't help their resume.

Morgan State at Murray State (Saturday at 12 noon ET): Morgan State was rolling along unbeaten in MEAC play until losing 71-68 at South Carolina St on Feb 15. The Bears will take a 20-8 overall mark (11-1 in the MEAC) into Saturday's game at Murray State. The Racers are 25-3 (16-0 in the OVC), one of just four remaining conference unbeatens and along with Butler, own the nation's longest active winning streak at 16 in a row. However, both schools know very well that while this game is for conference pride, neither team is a serious at-large contender. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid last year by beating Norfolk St 83-69 in the MEAC title game. The win also marked the return to the national stage for head coach Todd Bozeman, the center of an NCAA scandal before being fired at California-Berkeley in 1996. He was out of coaching for eight years before resurrecting his career at Morgan State and Bozeman's team is now on the verge of a second straight NCAA appearance. Murray State is no stranger to NCAA appearances, having made 13 in its history but none under current head coach Bill Kennedy. Mick Cronin (now head coach at Cincinnati) took the Racers to the "Big Dance" in 2004 and 2006 but Kennedy's teams have fallen short each of the last three seasons. Kennedy and the Racers are due this year. Kennedy's first collegiate head coaching job came at Centenary and he took over at Southeastern Louisiana hired in 1999. In his sixth and final season at Hammond, La (2005) his team went 24-9, winning both the conference regular season and tournament titles while getting the Lions to the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history, where it lost to Oklahoma State 63-50. That team won a school-record 24 games that year and the program hasn't won more than 17 games in any season since (team is 14-10 this year). Coaches matter in college hoops and with 25 wins already (plus that 16-game winning streak), this could be a special season for Kennedy and the Racers. The school's lone NCAA win in 13 appearances came in 1988 when it beat No. 3-seeded North Carolina St before losing 61-58 to Kansas, which led by Danny Manning, would go on to capture the national title. That's something to shoot for.

Siena at Butler (Saturday at 2:00 ET): What a game this is! Siena's been to two straight NCAA tournaments and won first round games both times. The Saints lost their unbeaten conference season back on Feb 12 when they lost 87-74 at Niagara and will take an overall 22-5 (15-1 in the MAAC) record into Saturday's game with No. 18 Butler. The Bulldogs come in tied with Murray State for the longest active winning streak (16) and as one of four remaining conference unbeatens (17-0 in the Horizon). Butler is 24-4 overall but a money-burning 11-17 ATS. The Bulldogs have made nine NCAA appearances (all but one since 1997), including Sweet 16 'visits' in both 2003 and 2007 under Todd Lickliter (now at Iowa). Lickliter left after the 2007 season and Brad Stevens was given his first-ever coaching job. Look what he's done, already. He became the third-youngest head coach in NCAA Division I history to lead a team to 30 wins in a season in his first season (2007-08) and on Feb 5, 2009, Stevens became the sixth head coach in NCAA history to reach 50 wins in 56 games or less. He's led the Bulldogs to two straight NCAA appearance and enters this game 80-14 (.851) in his two-plus seasons. All that's missing is an NCAA win. Siena's head coach Fran McCaffery's resume is missing very little. He has reenergized Siena's program in his four-plus years at the helm and taken it to new heights. McCaffery's Saints won 20 games in his second season (lost in MAAC championship game) and the last two years have won both the MAAC's regular season and tournament titles. Siena crushed 4th-seeded Vanderbilt 83-62 in the 2008 NCAA tournament and last season beat Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime in one of the tournament's most exciting games. In his fifth year at Loudonville, NY, McCaffery owns a 157-49 (.762) mark heading into Saturday's game. No one is surprised. McCaffery came to Siena from UNC-Greensboro, where he posted a 90-87 record in six seasons, leading the Spartans to their second-ever NCAA bid in 2001. McCaffery was the nation's youngest Division I head coach when he was hired in 1986 at Lehigh (26-years-old). He capped his three-year tenure with the Engineers with a 21-win season and an NCAA berth in 1988, making him (at the time) the youngest head coach to reach the NCAA Tournament. When McCaffery led the Saints to the 2008 NCAA tourney, he became just the 31st coach to take three different programs to the "Big Dance" and he is the first to do so with three programs from one-bid leagues (conference's that sent just one team the year his program advanced). We NEED both of these school's (and coaches) in this year's tourney and a Siena win is a must vs Butler for possible at-large consideration if the Saints fail to win the MAAC tourney (Butler's a 'lock' for an at-large bid but Siena is hardly in a similar position).

Akron at Virginia Commonwealth (Saturday at 4:00 ET): Keith Dambrot has now led Akron to five straight 20-win seasons (Zips are currently 20-7 / 10-3 in the MAC) and last season, the school's second-ever NCAA tournament appearance (first was under Bob Huggins back in 1986). The Zips are well aware that the MAC hasn't received an at-large bid since 1999 and this year will be no different, so a win here matters little when it comes to Akron's at-large chances because the Zips won't get to the NCAA tourney without winning the MAC tourney title (March 11-13 in Cleveland). I've focused on coaches quite a bit in this piece and Dambrot owns quite a story. He replaced Charlie Coles as coach of Central Michigan for the 1991-1992 season. However, he only lasted two seasons, and was fired for making a controversial comment before a game (he used the "N" word). The incident at Central Michigan essentially blackballed Dambrot from college coaching. However, he became the head coach at St. Vincent–St. Mary HS in Akron, Ohio in 1998, where in the last two years of his tenure LeBron James was a member of the team (you may know that name?). Dambrot has made quite 'resurrection.' VCU made NCAA appearances in 2007 (beat Duke) and 2009 (lost 65-64 to UCLA) under Anthony Grant (nine all-time), who has moved on to Alabama. Shaka Smart, who like Grant was an assistant under Billy Donovan at Florida, is the current head coach of the Rams (18-7 / 10-6), who won't be 'dancing' without winning the CAA tourney.

Wichita State at Utah State (Saturday at 12 midnight ET): Wichita State's last NCAA appearance came in 2006 (school's eighth all-time) and the school was thrilled when Gregg Marshall was hired in April of 2007, having previously coached at Winthrop for nine seasons. Marshall led the Eagles to seven NCAA tournament appearances and transformed a previously undistinguished program into a mid-major powerhouse. Marshall became the first coach in the history of the Big South Conference to have his team go undefeated in conference games in 2006-07 (14-0) and that same year also became the first Big South coach to win an NCAA first round tournament game by defeating sixth-seeded Notre Dame 74-64. The Shockers went just 11-20 and 17-17 in Marshall's first two seasons in Wichita but this year's team opened 16-2. However, WSU has won just six of its last 10 and at 22-6 (11-5) is a long shot to receive an at-large bid. A win at Logan, Utah could help but a loss would all but eliminate the Shockers from any serious at-large consideration. The Aggies enter this game at 21-6, including 11-2 in WAC play. They surely aren't counting on an at-large bid but like WSU, know a loss hurts more than a win helps. Stew Morrill took the head coaching job at Utah State prior to the 1998-99 season (came from Colorado St). He went 15-13 that first year but over the last 10 seasons (not counting this year) posted a 252-77 (.766) record. The Aggies have made 10 straight postseason appearances (six NCAA bids) but the school's attention-grabbing 77-68 overtime win against Ohio State in 2001, is its lone NCAA victory under Morrill. However, with Morrill at the helm, the Aggies entered this season as one of only three Division I schools to have won at least 23 games in each of the last ten seasons (Gonzaga and Kansas are the others). He'll make it 11 straight seasons with at least 23 wins before this year is over but another NCAA bid most likely will hinge on the team winning the WAC tourney, being played March 11-13 in Reno, Nevada.

I'll be back early next week with a 'state of the union' on the 2009-10 college basketball season.

Good luck, Larry

NBA mid-season update: Kobe vs LeBron, a year delayed?

Larry Ness — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 22:05:00 GMT

The NBA resumes play on Tuesday after a four-day break for its three-day All Star Extravaganza plus a day of rest (Monday). The weekend was topped by the kind of spectacle that Commissioner David Stern, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and Mavericks owner Mark Cuban had hoped for, a reported crowd of over 108,000 in attendance for Sunday's All Star game at Cowboys Stadium. It easily shattered the previous record for the largest crowd to watch a basketball game of 78,129, set for a college matchup between Kentucky and Michigan State at Detroit's Ford Field on Dec. 13, 2003.

NBA All Star games are usually fun and Sunday's game didn't disappoint, although Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul missed because of injuries. The crowd included the usual celebrities and athletes the NBA All-Star Game always attracts plus members of the U.S. 1992 Olympic "Dream Team" (finalist for induction into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame) were honored on the court during the second quarter. The East won 141-139 with Dwayne Wade (28-6-11) winning MVP honors. Other stars were LeBron (25-5-6) and Chris Bosh (23-10) of the East plus Anthony (27-10) and Nowitzki (22) from the West.

The second half of the season begins with the Cavs owning the NBA's best overall record at 43-11. Cleveland won't play until hosting Denver on Thursday and the Cavs will take a 13-game winning streak into that contest, the longest active winning streak in the league. The 13-game streak matches a franchise-high and represents the longest winning streak in the league this season. The Cavs fell three games short of the NBA's longest win streak entering the All-Star break. The record (16 straight) was set by the 1990-91 Los Angeles Lakers.

Speaking of the Lakers, the defending champs own the West's best record at the break (41-13). Los Angeles ended Utah's nine-game win streak and improved to 3-0 without the injured Kobe Bryant, when it beat the Jazz a week ago Wednesday 96-81 in Salt Lake City. The Lakers host the Warriors on Tuesday night and Kobe is expected to be back in the lineup after missing three straight games since spraining his left ankle against the Denver Nuggets on February 5. Banged-up center Andrew Bynum also returned to practice on Monday and can't be far from returning.

When the 2009 postseason began, a Kobe vs LeBron matchup in The Finals was No. 1 on the NBA's 'wish list' and most viewed it as inevitable. The Cavs dispatched the Pistons and Hawks in eight straight games (7-0-1 ATS), scoring 94.9 PPG while allowing just 78.1, to reach the Eastern Conference finals. Meanwhile, the Lakers took out the Jazz in five games (lost Game 3, 88-86) but then ran into all sorts of trouble vs the Rockets. However, with the series tied 1-1 the Lakers won Game 3 by the score of 108-94, tied at two games all the Lakers won Game 5 by thirty points (118-78) and then won Game 7, 89-70.

Most felt a 'disaster' had been avoided but then the two favorites had trouble winning at home in their respective conference finals. The Cavs lost Game 1 to the Magic in 107-106 (OT) in the East and then needed a 'miracle 3' by LeBron to escape with a 96-95 win in Game 2. Out West, the Lakers struggled to a 105-103 win in Game 1 and then lost Game 2, 106-103. The 'disaster alert' was back. While the Lakers recovered to eliminate the Nuggets in six games, the Cavs were not able to regroup, losing all three games in Orlando and the series in six games. The Lakers would beat the Magic in five games in The Finals.

Are we headed for a Kobe vs LeBron showdown in this year's Finals? One would think so, although that's what we thought last year. In the East, the Cavs should easily clinch the No. 1 seed, as they are seven games up in the loss column over the 36-18 Magic, 33-18 Hawks and 32-18 Celtics. Rumors are running 'wild' that the Cavs are going to get Amare Stoudemire from the Suns and it's hard to argue that wouldn't make Cleveland even better. The Celtics look 'old' these days, coming out of the break 9-13 since winning at Orlando 86-77 on Christmas Day. It should also be noted that Boston is just 1-7 vs the Hawks and Magic this year.

The Hawks own a superb six-man team (Horford, Smith and Williams up front plus Bibby, Crawford and Johnson on the perimeter) but are likely not deep enough of or experienced enough to beat the Cavs, who swept them in four games last year. As for the Magic, the team which eliminated both Boston and Cleveland from the postseason last year, one doesn't get the feeling that Orlando is as good as it was last season. The Cavs signed Shaq in the off-season to help with Howard come playoff time and we won't know that 'answer' until late May or early June but it's hard not to make the Cavs the overwhelming favorite to reach the NBA Finals from the East.

The West's playoff-field will be crowed, as 11 teams own winning records coming out of the break. As of Tuesday morning, the 27-24 Rockets, 28-25 Hornets and the 26-25 Grizzlies would miss the playoffs in the West, while the 26-27 Heat and 25-26 Bulls would be included in the East's postseason 'party.' The Lakers open the second half with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Nuggets for the conference's No. 1 seed and any credible followers of the league surely expect LA to nail down the West's top seed. The West will provide a very interesting 'battle' for playoff seeds but not at the top.

When the "second season" starts, I can't imagine any team in the West beating the Lakers in a seven-game series. The Lakers are two games behind the Cavs for the NBA's best overall record and with Cleveland owning a 2-0 series sweep, the Cavs also own the tie-breaker for home court advantage. LA has its work cut out for itself if it plans on catching the Cavs for the overall No. 1 seed. We didn't get a Kobe/LeBron Finals last year but we will this year. Better late than never plus this year, we get the bonus of Kobe and Shaq each looking for title No. 5.

I'll return Friday with some CBB notes, including a look at some of the weekend's best BracketBuster games, which ESPN is promoting as "98 teams, 49 games and representing 14 conferences." I've got goose bumps already.

Good luck, Larry

CBB Notes: Disappointing and Winless teams

Larry Ness — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 14:56:00 GMT

What's going on here? North Carolina beat Michigan St 89-72 in the national championship game last season for the school's fifth title, finishing with a 34-4 record. U Conn lost to Michigan St 82-73 in the national semifinals to finish the year at 31-5. Oklahoma lost 72-60 in the Elite 8 to North Carolina to end its season at 30-6 while Louisville also lost in the Elite 8, getting beat 64-52 by Michigan St to finish 31-6. Heading into this weekend, none of those 30-win teams from last year is assured of even getting invited to this year's "Big Dance" without guaranteeing themselves an automatic bid by winning their respective conference tourneys.

North Carolina was ranked 6th in the AP's preseason poll (actually received one first-place vote) and 4th in the coaches' poll. U Conn was 12th in the AP, Oklahoma 17th and Louisville 19th. None of the four are currently ranked, with Louisville owning the best record (15-9) and the only winning conference mark (6-5). Considering the Cardinals just lost 74-55 at St John's on Thursday night, a school which had been 2-8 in Big East play prior to the game, it's hard to get too excited about Louisville's postseason chances. U Conn is 14-9 overall (4-6 in the Big East) and Oklahoma 13-10 overall (4-5 in the Big 12).

No school has suffered a greater "fall from grace" than last year's defending champs. However, as the team's preseason ranking indicated, no one expected it. Roy Williams left Kansas to return to his alma mater to begin the 2003-04 season. The Tar Heels went 19-11 in his first season at Chapel Hill, losing 78-75 to Texas in the second round of the NCAA tournament. However, Williams would lead the Tar Heels to the school's fourth national title the very next year, beating Illinois 75-70 in the championship game (Illini entered that game 37-1).

North Carolina would finish that season 33-4 and enter the next season without its top-five scorers from the previous year (including May, McCants and Felton). However, led by a freshman named Tyler Hansbrough (18.9-7.8) and a pair of veteran forwards named Terry and Noel (the duo combined to average 27 PPG and 13 RPG), North Carolina would win 23 games before losing in the second round of the Big Dance to George Mason (65-60), which would go on to make its 'Cinderella' run to the Final Four. So the fact that Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington and Green were gone from last year's team, did not seem to be insurmountable.

After all, in 6-8 senior Deon Thompson and 6-10 sophomore Ed Davis, the Tar Heels were set up front. The 6-5 Marcus Ginyard was lost last season to an injury but was able to return this year and was joined in the backcourt by Larry Drew II, who was expected to blossom into a star after playing behind Lawson last year. Then of course, Williams had an excellent freshman class. The 6-10 Henson was penciled in as a starter plus guards McDonald and Strickland, who were both counted on to be "ready for primetime." Williams also recruited David and Travis Wear, 6-10 freshman twins.

So what has happened this year? Well let's allow North Carolina's record to do the 'talking.' When the Tar Heels host North Carolina St on Saturday, they will take a four-game losing streak into the game. North Carolina has lost seven of its last eight, eight of its last 10 and overall stands at just 13-11. It's 2-7 ACC mark leaves the Tar Heels in 11th-place in the ACC, ahead of only North Carolina St (14-1 / 2-8). Saturday's game is not exactly a David Thompson vs Michael Jordan showdown (I know they weren't contemporaries, but you get the point!).

Connecticut, Louisville and Oklahoma join North Carolina as Elite 8 (and 30-win teams) from last year, as this season's biggest disappointments. I should also mention Michigan. John Beilein took over at Ann Arbor for the 2007-08 season and his first team went 10-22. However, the Wolverines would win 21 games last year, before losing in the NCAA's second round to Oklahoma (73-63). Led by the 6-5 Harris and the 6-8 Sims plus three guards who all had promising freshman seasons (Douglass, Lucas-Perry and Novack), Michigan was ranked 15th in both preseason polls. Michigan opened 3-0 but enters the weekend a pathetic 12-12 (5-7 in the Big 10) and going nowhere.

Winless teams:

Earlier in the week I mentioned that there were eight schools still unbeaten in conference play in the 2009-10 season. Heading into the weekend (Friday-Sunday), there are still eight. At the other end of the 'food chain,' seven schools remain winless in conference play, heading into the weekend. I'm including Bryant University, which is one of two winless teams, overall. Bryant is transitioning into Division I status and will become a full-fledged member of the Northeast Conference by the 2012-13 season. Currently, the Bulldogs are 0-25, including an 0-13 mark in conference games.

Joining Bryant without a win yet this year is Alcorn State of the SWAC (lone full-fledged Division I school without a win). The Braves are 0-24 (0-11) heading into their Saturday contest at home with Mississippi Valley St (lost 80-70 at Itta Bena, Ms back on January 16). The other five winless schools in conference play are Dartmouth (0-6 in the Ivy), Fordham (1-10 in the A-10), LSU (0-10 in the SEC), Penn St (0-11 in the Big 10) and Toledo (0-11 in the MAC). Each of the last two seasons we've seen three schools go without a conference win but in the three years prior to that, just Campbell (0-20 in the Atlantic Sun) went winless back in 2004-05 (there were no winless teams in either the 2005-06 or 2006-07 seasons).

Going winless in one of the "Big Six" conferences is almost as rare as going through conference play unbeaten. Kansas (9-0 in the Big 12) is the only one of the eight remaining unbeatens to be from a major conference and as I mentioned earlier in the week, one has to go back to the 2002-03 season when Kentucky went 16-0 in the SEC, to find a school going unscathed in league play in a "big Six" conference. Of the six winless teams the last two seasons, two came from major conferences. Oregon State went 0-18 in the Pac 10 during the 2007-08 season, becoming the first school in league history to do so since that conference expanded to 10 teams back in 1978-79.

However, the Beavers would shock everyone last year as first-year Oregon State coach Craig Robinson took over that 6-25 team and went 13-16 (7-11) during the regular season. His Beavers lost their first game in the Pac 10 tourney but the CBI invited Oregon St to its postseason tourney (it helps to be the president's brother-in-law). The Oregon St players "took it from there," winning three straight home games to earn a spot in the "best two-of-three" championship round. OSU beat UTEP 81-73 in Game 3 of the College Basketball Invitational championship series, clinching the first postseason title in school history. Not a bad turnaround!

The same can't be said this year about last season's lone winless team from a major conference. DePaul went 0-18 in the Big East last year but enters this weekend 8-15 overall, including 1-10 in Big East play. That leads me to the two schools still winless this year from a major conference. What has happened to LSU and Penn State? LSU owned the SEC's best record last season (13-3) and then beat Butler in the NCAA's first round before falling to the eventual champs, North Carolina in the second round. LSU finished last year 27-8 but will enter Saturday's game at Vanderbilt 9-15 overall, including 0-10 in the SEC.

Penn St enters its Saturday home game with Michigan State at 8-15 overall, including 0-11 in the Big 10. How is this possible? Penn State went 10-8 in the Big 10 last year and advanced to the second NIT final in school history by beating Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions then beat Baylor 69-63 in the NIT championship game to win only the second postseason tournament title in school history, giving them a school-record 27 wins (the only other postseason tournament Penn State had won was the Atlantic 10 in 1991). What a difference a year makes.

I'll check back on the conference unbeatens and winless teams late next week but up first will be a mid-season NBA update Monday or Tuesday.

Good luck, Larry

Super Bowl XLIV

Larry Ness — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:05:00 GMT

While a Brett vs Peyton Super Bowl surely had a certain 'sex appeal,' it's hard to argue that a Colts/Saints matchup isn't a fitting conclusion to the 2009 season. The Colts opened 14-0 and the Saints 13-0. Two teams reaching 13-0 marked the latest in a season the NFL has ever had two teams which hadn't lost. Winning is nothing new for the Colts of this decade, while the Saints have reached rarified air. When the Colts won their 12th game this year, it marked an NFL-record seventh straight season of at least 12 wins. When they moved to 14-0, they owned the longest regular season winning streak in NFL history at 23. The Colts would "pack in it" the last two games of 2009, finishing 14-2.

However, the team's 10-year regular season record (2000-09) of 115-45 (.719) gives Indy the most wins of any team in any decade in NFL history (the 49ers of the 90s went 113-47, .706). For all of Indy's success this decade, this marks just their second Super Bowl appearance. The Colts take just a 9-8 postseason record into Sunday's game with the Saints. In comparison, the Patriots have gone 112-48 (.700) this decade and own four Super Bowl appearances (three wins) plus a postseason mark of 14-4. The Colts may try to make a case that they are "the team of the decade" if they win this game but that argument should fall on 'deaf ears.'

The Saints were founded in 1967 as an NFL expansion team and went more than a decade before they managed to finish a season with a .500 record, two decades before having a winning season and over four decades before reaching the Super Bowl (Lions and Browns are now the only teams which have been around since 1970 to have not reached the super Bowl). Jim Mora led the team to four playoff appearances from 1987–1992 (team also had winning records in the non-playoff years) but the Saints lost all four playoff games. Jim Haslett led New Orleans to its first-ever playoff win in 2000, when the Saints defeated the then-defending Super Bowl champion St Lois Rams 31-28.

Sean Peyton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans in 2006, a year after the team's previous season was disrupted by Hurricane Katrina. The Saints' scheduled 2005 home opener against the New York Giants was moved to Giants Stadium and the remainder of their 2005 home games were split between the Alamodome (San Antonio) and LSU's Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Saints would go 3-13 in 2005, giving them a 10-year mark of 63-97 (.394). After a $185 million renovation of the Superdome, the Saints returned for the 2006 season. New Orleans went 10-6 and made it to the NFC championship game where it lost 39-14 to the Chicago Bears. The Saints went 7-9 and 8-8 the next two seasons but this year's 13-3 mark gives them a 38-26 (.594) regular season mark these last four years.

Home teams finished 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the 2009 postseason with the home team being favored in every game except the Green Bay/Arizona contest (favorites went 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS). The favorite had won and covered or the dog had won outright in every game, before the Saints (minus-3 1/2) won but failed to cover against the Vikings. Just three of the games were decided by less than 10 points, while five games were decided by 17 points or more (two by margins of 31 points). Of course the Super Bowl features no home team but favorites have gone 30-12 SU (SB 16 was a 'pick') and 22-18-2 ATS.

Thirty-two of the previous 43 Super Bowls have been decided by seven points or more (74.4 percent), including 21 by 14 points or more (48.8 percent). The Super Bowl tended to be one sided affair for the better part of its first 31 years. However, just two of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by more than 13 points (Ravens 34-7 over the Giants and Bucs 48-21 over the Raiders) with seven being decided by seven points or less. The Patriots have played in four of the last eight Super Bowls, with each game decided by exactly three points.

I've focused on playoff games since 1990 (when the NFL expanded to a 12-team field) all postseason and will do so again here. Home teams won both championship games, the third time in the last four seasons in which home teams have swept the two conference championship games. It marks just the third time both No. 1 seeds have advanced to a Super Bowl since 1990. It hadn’t happened since the 1993 season when the Cowboys beat the Bills 30-13 in Super Bowl XXVIII (both teams were 12-4), with the only other occurrence coming in 1991 when the 14-2 Redskins beat the 13-3 Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI.

While this is only the third time that both No. 1 seeds have made it to the "big game," at least one No. 1 seed has made the Super Bowl in all but three seasons since 1990, including last season when Pittsburgh (No. 2 in the AFC) beat Arizona (No. 4 in the NFC). The other times were in 1992 (No. 2 Dallas beat No. 4 Buffalo) and 1997 (No. 4 Denver beat No. 2 Green Bay). Being a No. 1 seed and playing against a non-No. 1 seed has not been a good omen as of late. The only No. 1 seed to win a Super Bowl this decade has been the 2003 (beat the Panthers 32-29 in SB XXXVIII) with seven of the nine Super Bowl losers this decade being No. 1 seeds, including four in a row before last year.

Of course, with two No. 1 seeds meeting this year, one has to win and one has to lose (no ties, Donovan). Sticking with just Super Bowls since 1990 (19-game sample), the SU winner has also covered the pointspread in 13 of those wins with four ATS losses and two 'pushes' (Super Bowls 31 and 34). Three of the four games in which the Super Bowl winner failed to cover the spread have occurred in just the past six games Super Bowls, including last season when Pittsburgh beat Arizona 27-23 as a seven-point favorite.

Looking back over the last six Super Bowls reveals that the team with the better regular season record has failed to cover the spread even once, with three of those teams losing outright. The last time the team with the better regular season record won the Super Bowl was played following the 2002 season when the 12-4 Bucs crushed the 11-5 Raiders 48-21 as 3 1/2-point underdogs. That spells bad news for the 14-2 Colts (Saints are 13-3) but Colt fans (not necessarily the same as Colt bettors) can take heart in the fact that the favored team (Indy is a 4 1/2-point choice as of Thursday night) has won 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls.

It’s been a high-scoring postseason in 2009 with the first five games going over the total, including the highest scoring game in NFL postseason history (Arizona’s 51-45 OT win over Green Bay in the wildcard round). Those first five games averaged 57.6 points but three consecutive unders followed, with those games averaging 30.3 PPG. However, “Championship Sunday” saw both games over over, as the Colts won 30-17 (closing total was 40) and the Saints won 31-28 in OT (53 1/2). That leaves us with seven overs and three unders so far, as games have averaged an unusually high 48.5 PPG.

While it's been a high scoring postseason, the current over/under of 56 1/2 is the highest Super Bowl total ever posted. Last year's Arizona/Pittsburgh game went over the 46 1/2 (due to a 23-point fourth quarter) but the previous four Super Bowls each stayed under. None of the last five Super Bowls have exceeded 50 points (average score totaling 40.6 PPG) and of the last 19 Super Bowls played since 1990, just five would have gone OVER the current total of 56 ½ with another one landing right on 56 (SB XXXI).

Enjoy the game, Larry.

CBB Notes: First Look at the "Big Dance"

Larry Ness — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 23:08:00 GMT

The Pac 10 was founded as the Athletic Association of Western Universities or AAWU in 1959 and went by the names Big Five, Big Six, and Pacific-8, becoming the Pacific-10 in 1978. Oregon (an original member of the AAWU) won the NCAA's first-ever national championship in 1939 (beat Ohio St) and California won the national championship in 1959. The Pac 8 gave us the UCLA dynasty of the 1960s and 1970s (10 titles from 1964-1975), with the Pac 10 adding titles in 1995 (UCLA's 11th) and Arizona's lone title in 1997. The Wildcats entered the 2009-10 season having made 25 consecutive NCAA appearances, the longest active streak and the second-longest in NCAA history (the Tar Heels made 27 straight appearances from 1975-2001).

However, the latest AP poll (Feb 1) marked the fourth consecutive week in which not a single Pac-10 team was ranked. That hasn't happened even ONCE, since the final poll of 1986-87. Pac 10 teams are an abysmal 1-15 vs top-25 opponents in 2009-10 and the conference faces the very real possibility it won’t receive an at-large bid to the “Big Dance.” The last time the Pac 10 placed just one team in the NCAA field was 1978, when the tourney featured just 32 teams. How the mighty have fallen. UCLA, which reached the Final Four in three straight seasons from 2006 to 08, carries a losing record into its Thursday game with Stanford at 10-11 (5-4 in league play). Arizona is 12-9 overall but 6-3 in the Pac 10, tied for first with Cal (14-7/6-3).

Cal was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll and Washington (14-7/4-5) was ranked 14th but both have long ago "fell from grace." Arizona State is 15-7, the best overall record of any team in the conference, but the Sun Devils are no better than 5-4 in league play, leaving them tied with the Bruins for third (behind 6-3 Cal and Arizona). Is the Pac 10 facing the very real possibility it won’t receive an at-large bid to the “Big Dance.” The last time the Pac 10 placed just one team in the NCAA field was 1978, when the tourney featured just 32 teams. I should also mention here that since the NCAA expanded its tournament field to 64 teams in 1985 (and then 65 in 2001), every BCS football-playing conference has sent at least three teams to the Big Dance.

Will that change in 2010? Will the Pac 10’s woes spell good news for a number of mid-major conferences this season? How about the fact that two of last year's Final Four teams, the champion North Carolina Tar Heels and the U Conn Huskies are both 'bubble' teams if today was "Selection Sunday?" The Huskies sit at 13-9 overall (have lost three straight) and their 3-6 Big East mark leaves them 13th in the 16-team league as of games [played through Feb 1. The Tar Heels are 13-8 overall (next game is Thursday at Va Tech) and incredibly, North Carolina's 2-4 ACC mark leaves them ahead of just Miami-Fl and NC State in the 12-team league through Feb 1.

If that's not bad enough news for these two basketball powers, U Conn plays five of its last nine games on the road and North Carolina is away from home in six of its final 10 games. Louisville, also a Final Four team last year, had lost four of its previous five before beating slumping U Conn 82-69 on Monday. The win moved the Cardinals to just 14-8 overall (5-4 in the Big East). Let me add another Elite 8 school from last year, 30-win Oklahoma. The Sooners are just 12-9 (3-4 in the Big 12) with two games left with Texas (No. 9), a home game with current No. 10 Kansas St and a trip to Lawrence to play Kansas (back at No. 1) among their final nine regular season games. Could half of last year's Elite 8 not even get invited to the 'dance' in 2010? That's seems drastic but I'd like to bet that at least two of those schools don't make it.

However, the trouble is, at-large bids for mid-major schools have decreased steadily since the middle of the decade and last year only four non-Big Six schools received at-large bids. Looking ahead is always a difficult task this early, as upsets in conference tourneys can quickly change the 'landscape.' Last year, surprise winners in the Atlantic 10 (Temple), Horizon League (Cleveland State), Pac-10 (Southern Cal) and SEC (Mississippi State) effectively ended the tourney hopes of four other bubble teams. I've noted the troubles of the Pac 10 and while Kentucky has quickly jelled under Calipari, the SEC still appears to be a more than a few notches beneath where it was a few years ago. The SEC may not receive any more than the three bids it got last year and along with the Pac 10, should open up a few extra at-large bids. Will those "extra spots" be filled by mid-major schools or just open up additional bids for deeper leagues like the Big East and Big 12?

The Ivy League is the lone conference without a season-ending tourney (regular season champ gets the automatic bid) and followers were making a case for both Cornell and Harvard getting in. However, the Big Red's 86-50 win over Harvard this past Saturday, pretty much ended that talk. Here's a look at a few other conferences, in alphabetical order.

The Atlantic 10 is arguably the nation's best non-BCS conference this season. Temple and Xavier are 'locks' and I'll argue that as of today, two (maybe three?) of the following four schools will go (Charlotte, Dayton, Rhode Island or Richmond). The CAA has had multiple bids before and could get more than one again in 2010. George Mason (10-1) leads the league with a 10-1 mark through Feb 1 but the Patriots aren't the league's best team. Northeastern, Old Dominion, Va Commonwealth plus William and Mary all own long-shot at-large chances.

Conference USA has been dominated by Memphis the last four years, as Calipari’s Tigers were a collective 137-14 (.907) over the last four seasons, the most wins in any four-year stretch in college basketball history. However, Memphis' only way into the NCAA tournament this year is by winning C-USA's postseason tourney. The bad news for Memphis fans is that for the first time since C-USA reorganized in 2005, the league tourney will not be held in Memphis but rather the brand-new BOK Center in downtown Tulsa. UAB (18-3/6-1), Tulsa (17-4/6-1) and UTEP (15-5/6-1) are in a three-way tie for first as of Feb 1. Expect two bids for C-USA this year.

The Horizon League will only get two bids if Butler fails to win the season-ending tourney. The MAC has not sent more than one school to the NCAA tournament since 1999 and don't expect the conference to end its drought this year. The MVC has slipped the last couple of years but it's "bounce-back time" in 2010 with Northern Iowa (24th in Monday's AP poll) and Wichita State (19-4/8-3) leading the 'charge' (Northern Iowa is 19-2/10-1). The MWC hates being called a "mid-major" and has regularly sent multiple schools to the NCAA tourney. This year will be no different with BYU (12th in the AP) and New Mexico (20-3/6-2) both already having won 20 games (BYU is 20-2/6-1). San Diego St (15-6/4-3) got robbed last year but the Aztecs or Rebels (17-4/5-2) should give the league three teams this season.

Wrapping things up, the WAC figures to be a one-bid league in 2010 but the WCC should place both Gonzaga (would be the school's 13th straight bid) and St Mary's in the field. The Gaels, like the Aztecs, were unfairly left out of last year's tourney but that doesn't figure to be the case this time around.

Join me Friday for some Super Bowl notes.

Good luck, Larry

Championship Sunday recap:

Larry Ness — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 22:19:00 GMT

The NFL hadn't seen both of its No. 1 seeds make it to "Championship Sunday" since 2004 and with wins by both the Colts and Saints, it marks just the third time both No. 1 seeds have advanced to a Super Bowl since the league expanded its playoff field to 12 teams twenty years ago (1990). It hadn't happened since the 1993 season when the Cowboys beat the Bills 30-13 in Super Bowl XXVIII (both teams were 12-4), with the only other occurrence coming in 1991 when the 14-2 Redskins beat the 13-3 Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI.

The Colts went 14-2 and the Saints 13-3 in 2009, matching the records of the Redskins and Bills in Super Bowl XXVI, as well as the Patriots (14-2) and the Eagles (13-3) in Super Bowl XXXIX for the second-fewest combined losses of Super Bowl opponents since 1990. Super Bowl XXXIII featured the 14-2 Broncos and the 14-2 Falcons for the fewest losses since 1990, a game in which the Broncos won 34-19. The 15-1 49ers beat the 14-2 Dolphins 38-16 in Super Bowl XIX and the three combined losses of those two teams ranks as the fewest of any Super Bowl opponents since the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games back in 1978.

It's been a high-scoring postseason in 2009 with the first five games going over the total, including the highest scoring game in NFL postseason history (Arizona's 51-45 OT win over Green Bay in the wildcard round). Those first five games averaged 57.6 points but three consecutive unders followed, with those games averaging 30.3 PPG. However, "Championship Sunday" saw both games over over, as the Colts won 30-17 (closing total was 40) and the Saints won 31-28 in OT (53 1/2). That leaves us with seven overs and three unders so far, as games have averaged an unusually high 48.5 PPG.

Home teams won both games on Sunday, the third time in the last four seasons in which home teams have swept the two conference championship games. It's the 16th time in which both home teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl since the 1970 merger, compared to both visiting teams winning and advancing just twice (there have 22 instances in which one home team and one road team won). Home teams finished 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the 2009 postseason with the home team being favored in every game except the Green Bay/Arizona contest (favorites went 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS). The favorite had won and covered or the dog had won outright in every game, before the Saints (minus-3 1/2) won but failed to cover against the Vikings. Just three of the games were decided by less than 10 points, while five games were decided by 17 points or more (two by margins of 31 points).

The Colts head to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in their history (each time the game has been played in Miami) and the second time in four seasons. Amazingly, the Colts have won both AFC title games played in Indy by coming back from double-digit deficits. The Colts trailed the Pats by 18 points back in the 2006 AFC championship games (21-3) but came back to win 38-34. Sunday, they overcame a 17-6 deficit to win 30-17. Jim Caldwell becomes only the fifth rookie coach to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco’s George Seifert (1989) and Don McCafferty of the Baltimore Colts (1970) are the only ones to win.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be making their first-ever Super Bowl appearance in their 42nd year. That leaves just four franchises which have not appeared in a Super Bowl the Jaguars (1995) and Texans (2002), who both haven't been around very long, as well as the long-suffering Lions (1934) and Browns (1950). The early line on Super Bowl XLIV is the Colts minus-5 with a total of 56. Note that since 1990 (12-team playoff field), favorites are 14-5 SU but just 8-9-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The average margin of victory has been 12.3 PPG with the average game score being 49.7 PPG (10 overs and nine unders).

Jets at Colts:

The Colts were the heavy favorites but the Jets were expected to be able to run the football and their defense was the league's best, so it was not unreasonable to believe their were a 'live' underdog. Conventional wisdom said if the Jets fell behind and had to rely on Sanchez they were 'dead,' but when the Jets led 17-6 with just over two minutes to go before the half, they were "looking good." So much for that! The Colts took over at their own 20 and after an incompletion, Manning hit rookie Austin Collie three consecutive times, the last one for a TD. The Colts were back within 17-13 at the half and it was "all Indy" the rest of the way.

The Jets D ranked No. 1 in PPG (14.8) and YPG (252.3) but allowed 30 points and 461 yards. The Jets ranked No. 1 in passing yards allowed (154), No. 1 in opponents completions (51.7), No. 1 in opponents QB rating (58.8) plus had allowed just eight TD passes with 17 INTs (all regular season numbers). All Peyton did was go 26-of-39 (66.7 percent) for 377 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, posting a QB rating of 123.6. Wayne and Clark had each caught 100 passes this season but both were pretty much contained. So instead, Manning went to Garcon, a second-year WR from Mount Union and BYU rookie Austin Collie.

Garcon, who had four catches as a rookie and 47 this year, set career highs with 11 catches and 151 yards. Collie, who had 60 catches and seven TDs this season, caught a career high seven balls and topped 100 yards for the first time with 123. Each player had a TD catch. The Colts running game, which ranked last in the league during the regular season (80.9 YPG / 3.5 YPG) and was limited to 42 yards on 25 carries (1.7 YPC) vs the Ravens last weekend, ran for 101 yards on 24 attempts (4.2 YPC) vs the Jets, led by Joseph Addai (16 carries for 80 yards).

The Jets led the NFL with 172.3 YPG (4.5 YPC) on the ground during the regular season and in two postseason wins in 2009, had run for 170.0 YPG (4.3 YPC). However, the Jets were held to just 86 yards rushing on 29 carries (3.0 YPC), as Shonn Greene, the rookie who had run for 135 and 128 yards the last two weekends, was held to 41 on 10 carries and left the game early in the third QB. Thomas Jones, who toped 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season in 2009 with a career high 1,402 yards (as well as a career high 14 rushing TDs), was a non-factor all postseason, rushing for just 117 on 45 carries (2.6 YPC), including 42 yards an 16 carries vs the Colts.

Rookie QB Mark Sanchez became the fourth rookie QB to lead his team to the conference title game and lose but surely has nothing to be ashamed of, completing 17-of-30 passes for 257 yards, his third-best total of the season (18 games). He threw two TDs and his only INT of the entire postseason (68 attempts) came late, after the game had been decided. His QB rating of 93.3 for the game, dwarfs the 60.3 rating he posted during the regular season. Going 2-1 in the playoffs in his rookie season (all games came on the road), is quite an achievement. Remember, Manning is just 9-8 all-time in the postseason, including 2-5 on the road.

Vikings at Saints:

The Vikings outgained the Saints 475 yard to 257 and had 31 FDs compared to 15 for the Saints. However, while the Saints made just one miscue (Reggie Bush's fumbled punt in the late second quarter), the Vikings fumbled six times (losing three) with Brett Favre throwing two INTs. That's FIVE turnovers for Minnesota and just one for New Orleans. Three of Minnesota's turnovers were "game-changers," the first being the botched hand-off between Favre and Peterson inside the Saints' five-yard line right after Bush's fumbled punt (game was tied 14-all). The second came with the scored tied at 21-all and set up the Saints with a first down at the Minnesota seven-yard line (Saints would go up 28-21) and the last of course, was Favre's final interception (more on that later).

For the Vikings it was a game of "missed opportunities," while the Saints maximized their chances. Brees averaged 292.5 YPG through the air during the regular season but threw for just 197 yards against the Vikings. After running for 171 yards (on 34 carries / 5.0 YPC) against the Cardinals, the Saints ran for just 68 yards against the Vikings on 23 carries (3.0 YPC). Yet, the Saints would score 31 points. Brees threw for three TDs without an INT (106.5 QB rating) and while Bush, who had posted 217 all-purpose yards vs the Cardinals did very little with 41 all-purpose yards, Pierre Thomas picked up the slack with 139 all-purpose yards.

Favre took a terrible beating and one must admire this 40-year-old and what he's accomplished this year but AGAIN, he threw a "very stupid" interception at a critical time. This has plagued Favre his entire career. Favre's career seemed about over when the Packers went 4-12 in 2005 with Brett throwing just 20 TDs and a league-high 29 INTs. Green Bay went 8-8 in 2006, with Brett matching a career-low with 18 TDs (had 18 INTs), while completing a career-low 56.0 percent. However, he rebounded to lead the Packers to a 13-3 record in 2007, completing 66.5 percent of his passes for over 4,000 yards with 28 TDs and 15 INTs.

The Packers hosted the Giants in the NFC championship game that year but Favre famously threw an "awful" interception on the first possession of OT, setting up the Giants game-winning FG. He led the Jets to an 8-3 start last year but the team lost four its final five games with Favre throwing just two TDs and nine INTs down the stretch. His 2009 season with Minnesota was one of his best (at 40 years old!) but it was "déjà vu all over again" on Sunday. The Vikings had a chance to run the clock down for a final play that could have been a 51-yard FG attempt, facing a third-and-10 from the New Orleans 33-yard line. Instead, they called a timeout with the intent of running another play to get slightly closer.

The Vikings screwed that up by getting called for 12 men on the field, moving them back five more yards. That forced Favre to throw for more significant yardage and on the team's fateful last play, he passed up a chance at running for five or more yards, and instead threw a late and ill-advised pass toward Sidney Rice which was intercepted by Tracy Porter. It was an all-too-familiar ending. It was Favre’s second INT of the game and the sixth time in his last seven playoff losses that he had thrown at least two interceptions. Overall, Favre has 19 interceptions in those seven losses.

I knew I could count on Chris Berman and Tom Jackson of ESPN to "bail out" Favre. Jackson was at his best saying, "He's not afraid to throw a pick. That's the thing I admire most about him." How about that for logic? Can you imagine what they'd be saying about that pass if it had been thrown by someone like Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman or Joey Harrington (remember him?)? Why not say this, Tom? "I really like Adrian Peterson because he's not afraid to fumble!"

Good luck, Larry

NFL's Final Four:

Larry Ness — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 22:08:00 GMT

The NFL conducted a season-long celebration of the 50th anniversary of the AFL during the 2009 season, as most know. Using simple math, one didn't have to attend Ohio University to realize that since the AFL began in 1960 and the first year of the merger was the 1970 season, that this weekend's AFC and NFC championship games are celebrating their 40th anniversary. Both home teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl 15 times, there have 22 years in which one visiting and one home team won and advanced and just two times, both visiting teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Those two instances occurred in 1992 (Buffalo won 29-10 at Miami while Dallas won 30-20 at San Francisco) and in 1997 (Denver won 24-21 at Pittsburgh while Green Bay won 23-10 at San Francisco). From 1981 through 1984, home teams were dominant on championship weekend, winning all eight games. However, from 1998 through 2005 (an eight-year span), one home team and won visiting team each season. Both home teams won in 2006 (the Colts 38-34 over the Pats plus the bears 39-14 over the Saints), it was a split in 2007 (Pats won at home over the Chargers with the Giants winning at the Packers) and then last year both home teams won again (Steelers over the Ravens and the Cardinals over the Eagles).

Both No. 1 seeds (Colts and Saints) have advanced to the NFL's version of its Final Four for the first time since 2004, the Vikings are the NFC's No. 2 seed and the 9-7 Jets are the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Jets are also just the fifth 9-7 team to advance to a conference championship game since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule back in 1978. The first team to do it was the the 1979 Rams, who beat the 10-6 Bucs in Tampa, 9-0. The 1984 Steelers went 9-7 and lost 45-28 in Miami to the the 14-2 Dolphins, the 1996 Jaguars were 9-7 and lost in New England to the 11-5 Patriots 20-6 and just last year, the 9-7 Cardinals beat the 9-6-1 Eagles 30-24 at home in a game which featured the worst combined records (18-15-1, .578) of any two championship game opponents.

I've been focusing on the point spread records since 1990 in each of my previews, as this is when the NFL went to its 12-team playoff field. This marks the 20th playoff season since that time and home teams are 23-15 SU (.605) over the 19 postseasons in the conference championship games, failing to win reach 50 percent ATS at 18-19-1 (48.6 percent). That's significantly lower than in the wildcard round, where home teams went 51-25 SU (.671) and 40-33-3 ATS or in the divisional round, where home teams have gone 56-20 SU (.737) and 39-35-3 ATS. Home teams have gone 2-2 SU and ATS in the wildcard round and 3-1 SU and ATS in the divisional round.

One could argue it makes sense that road teams in conference championship games would do well, as by this time, teams have played at least one and sometimes two games. Playing away from home generally affects good teams less than weak ones. However, that would not explain why home teams went 18-6 SU (.750) and 17-7 ATS (70.8 percent) in conference championship games from 1978 through 1989 (the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games beginning in 1978). Both home teams have won their conference championship games six times, on two occasions both visiting teams have won and in the other 11 seasons, one home and one road team has won.

Home teams are 5-3 SU and ATS through eight postseason games this year with favorites going 4-4 ATS (Arizona was a home dog vs Green Bay). The pointspread has not come into play in a single game, as every favorite to win SU has covered, or the game’s underdog has won outright (Jets in both of their wins, along with the Ravens against the Pats and the Cards over the Packers). The average margin of victory after those eight games is a healthy 17.2 PPG. In comparison there had been a total of 209 playoff games (including Super Bowls) since 1990 heading into this postseason. The average margin of victory in those games was just under two TDs, at 13.1 PPG.

This has become a recurring theme and history shows that the pointspread comes into play least often in the conference championship round since 1990. The SU winner in the 38 conference championship games since 1990 has also covered the spread in 32 of those wins with one push and just five ATS losses. Doing the math, the SU winner has covered the spread in 86.5 percent of the conference championship games. Twenty-six of the 38 games (68.4 percent) have been decided by more than seven points and 14 of the 38 (36.8 percent) have been decided by more than 14 points. However, while from 2002 through 2005 both conference championship games were decided by double digits, five of the last six (including both in the past two seasons) have been decided by single digits.

There here have been five overs and three unders this postseason with the average score being 32.3 PPG for the winning team and 15.1 PPG for the losing team. The history of this round since 1990 shows that the overs have been more prevalent, cashing 23 times with 14 unders and one push (62.1 percent). However, the average games score of 43.4 PPG is no higher than the wildcard average of 43.0 or the divisional round average of 43.2. Margin of victory has also been amazingly similar with wildcard games being decided by 12.4 PPG, divisional round games by 14.0 PPG and conference championship games by 13.4 PPG.

NY Jets at Ind Colts (Colts minus-7 1/2 and the total is 39):

These teams met in Week 16 but little can be drawn from that meeting as the Colts famously (infamously?) removed their starters in the third quarter with a 15-10 lead, making it easier for the Jets to score the game's final 19 points in a 29-15 victory. This marks the first conference championship game to feature two rookie head coaches (Rex Ryan and Jin Caldwell) and it also matches two teams which couldn't be less alike. The Jets were the NFL's No. 1 rushing team during the regular season (172.3 YPG / 4.5 YPC) while the Colts were the worst (80.9 YPG / 3.5 YPC).

The Jets will go with rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who completed only 53.8 percent of his passes in 2009, averaging 162.9 YPG with 12 TDs and 20 INTs (63.9 QB rating). Meanwhile, the Colts have some guy named Peyton Manning, who will likely finish his career as the the NFL's all-time leader is almost every significant category. He topped 4,000 yards passing (his 4,500 yards were 57 yards of a single-season high) for the 10th time in his last 11 years, completed 68.8 percent of his passes with 33 TDs and 16 INTs (99.9 QB rating).

Sanchez became just the fourth rookie QB to win his playoff debut when the Jets won at Cincinnati on January 9 and last Sunday in San Diego, joined Joe Flacco as the only QBs to earn two wins in their rookie seasons (Flacco did it last year with the Ravens). Sanchez was efficient in the win over the Bengals, going 12-of-15 for 182 yards with one TD pass and zero INTs (139.4 rating). However, he completed just 12-of-23 passes for 100 yards with one TD and one INT vs the Chargers (60.1 rating), registering the fewest passing yards by a Jets QB in a playoff win (minimum 20 attempts).

Manning was solid vs the Ravens, completing 30-of-44 passes for 246 yards with two TDs and one INT. However, the Colts ran for just 42 yards on 25 attempts (1.7 YPC). Can they win (or cover?) doing that again? For all his accomplishments, Manning is just 8-8 in the playoffs (includes a 4-0 mark when the team won the Super Bowl in 2006). The Colts have won seven division titles this decade and their 128 wins are not only more than any team this decade, it's the most wins of any team in any decade in NFL history. However, the Colts own just one Super Bowl appearance in that span, beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

The Jets beat the Colts in Super Bowl III, arguably the most important football game in NFL history. In their win last Sunday over the 13-3 Chargers, the Jets became just the second 9-7 team since 1997 to beat a team in a divisional playoff game that was 12-4 or better. Here, they meet the 14-2 Colts and the five-game difference between two teams meeting in a conference championship game matches the largest margin since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule (in 1978). It's happened just two times before, both in the 1984 season. The 14-2 Dolphins beat the 9-7 Steelers 45-28 in the AFC championship game that season, while the 15-1 49ers beat the 10-6 Bears 23-0 in the NFC title game.

Min Vikings at the NO Saints (Saints minus-3 1/2 and the total is 53):

The Saints (31.9 PPG) and the Vikings (29.4 PPG) were the two highest scoring teams in the NFL during the regular season and New Orleans scored 45 points in beating the Cardinals last weekend (Brees completed 71.9 percent of his passes with three TDs, no INTs and a QB rating of 125.4) while the Vikings scored 34 points in beating the Cowboys (Favre threw four TD passes for the first time in 23 career playoff games, posting a 134.4 rating). Head coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans for the 2006 season and have led a major turnaround. Favre famously came out of retirement again to play in 2009 and is one win away from leading the Vikings to their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1976 season and his first trip back since the 1997 season.

The Saints were 63-97 (.394) in the 10 years prior to the arrival of Brees and Payton but are 38-26 (.594) these last four years, while averaging 27.6 PPG (third-best in the NFL in that span). Brees has topped 4,000 yards in passing all four seasons (threw for 5,069 in 2008) with 122 TDs and 57 INTs. His QB rating of 109.6 in 2009 represents a career-best. Favre threw 33 TDs (9th time in 19 seasons) and just seven INTs (fewest in a season by far, as his lowest had been 13) in 2009, posting career bests in completion percentage (68.4) and QB rating (107.2).

While the QB matchup takes center stage in this game, which team runs the ball better may be the deciding factor. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson but the Saints averaged more YPG on the ground during the regular season than the Vikings (131.6-to-119.9) plus averaged more yards per carry (4.5-to-4.1). Note that while the Saints ran for 171 yards vs the Cards last week (Bush had 217 all-purpose yards), the Vikings had just 92 yards rushing vs the Cowboys (3.7 YPC), as AP was held to 63 yards on 26 carries (2.4 YPC).

It can't go unmentioned that AP has failed to gain 100 yards now in EIGHT consecutive games, averaging 66.1 YPG during that span and 3.3 YPC. However, the Saints allowed 122.2 YPG on the ground this year (4.5 YPC), while the Vikings ranked second in the NFL in rushing D, allowing 87.1 YPG (3.9 YPC). I should point out though, that after Hightower ran 70 yards on Arizona's first play from scrimmage last weekend, the Saints held the Cards to just 31 yards rushing on 14 attempts the rest of the way. Neither pass D has posted good numbers but while the Vikings allowed 26 TDs and intercepted just 11 passes, the Saints allowed a modest 15 TD passes and came away with 26 INTs.

Enjoy the games and I'll be back Monday with a recap.

Good luck, Larry

CBB Notes: And then there was one

Larry Ness — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 22:23:00 GMT

The Texas Longhorns rose to No. 1 back on January 11. Kansas was the nation's preseason No. 1 and stayed atop the rankings until losing 76-68 at Tennessee on January 10, which gave Texas its opportunity to claim the AP's top spot for the first time in school history. The Longhorns would garner 56 of the AP's 65 first-place votes with Kentucky (the only other unbeaten team) getting the other nine. Kansas would fall to No. 3 back on January 11, ending a nine-week run at No. 1. That gave Kansas 51 weeks all-time as the nation's No. 1 team, the fifth most of any school.

Texas won 90-83 at Iowa State on January 13, winning its first-ever game as the nation's No. 1 team. The Longhorns then edged Texas A&M back in Austin last Saturday (Jan 16), 72-67 in overtime. As the saying goes, "uneasy is the head that wears the crown." Texas' (17-0) two close wins allowed them to remain the AP's No. 1 team again as the new week opened on Monday (Jan 18), as the Longhorns actually gained one first-place vote (received 57 of 65). Kentucky (18-0), still the nation's only other unbeaten team, was a solid No. 2 getting the other eight first-place votes.

However, the Longhorns' 17-game winning streak ended Monday night, as the Wildcats beat them 71-62. Kansas State moved up to No. 9 in the latest AP poll earlier in the day (KSU's first top-10 ranking since the Wildcats finished the 1972-73 season ranked 9th by the AP) and celebrated Monday night by knocking off the nation's No. 1 team. Neither team shot well but KSU held Texas (averaging just over 89 PPG) to a season-low 62 points. Despite KSU's two high-scoring guards Pullen and Clemente shooting a combined 4-of-24 from the floor, KSU improved to 16-2 on the season, including 11-0 (6-0 ATS) in Manhattan.

So look who is poised to claim the nation's No. 1 ranking come next Monday? John Calipari and his undefeated Kentucky Wildcats have just one game on this week's schedule and that's a Saturday home game vs the 8-9 Arkansas Razorbacks (Arkansas will host Florida on Thursday night, before visiting Lexington). Calipari's success is unquestioned at the college level (we'll not dwell on his stint as the Nets' head coach). He took over U Mass at the beginning of the 1988-89 season and stayed eight years. The Minutemen would go the the NCAA tourney in each of his last five seasons, including reaching the Final 4 in his final season of 1995-96.

U Mass was 142-25 (.850) In Calipari's last five years in Boston with his Final 4 team going 31-1. He then left for the NBA but returned to the college ranks at Memphis to begin the 2000-01 season. The Tigers would win 253 games in his nine seasons while posting nine consecutive 20-win seasons, including an NCAA record four consecutive 30-win seasons from 2005-06 through 2008-09. His teams earned nine consecutive postseason bids, including six NCAA appearances. In his three trips to the NIT, Calipari's teams made it to Madison Square Garden each time, winning the title in 2002.

Calipari's Memphis team was a collective 137-14 (.907) over the last four seasons, the most wins in any four-year stretch in college basketball history. The 2007-08 team went 38-2, setting an NCAA record for wins in a single season but lost in the national championship game to Kansas when the Jayhawks rallied from nine points down with 2:12 left in regulation to send the game into OT where Kansas would prevail 75-68. However, as everyone is aware, both of Calipari's Final 4 teams, the 1995-96 Minutemen and the 2007-08 Tigers, have had their Final 4 appearances vacated by the NCAA for rules violations.

Calipari inherited a Kentucky which had won 18 games two years ago (lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney) and 22 games last year (lost in the NIT quarterfinals). The 6-4 Jodie Meeks (23.7 PPG), who broke Dan Issel's 39-year-old record of 53 points in one game last season when he had 54 in a 90-72 win over Tennessee on January 13, declared for the NBA draft and was taken in the second round by the Milwaukee Bucks, the 41st player chosen. Through January 19, Meeks is averaging only 13.5 MPG and averaging a modest 4.8 PPG. He would have been an outstanding perimeter scorer for the Wildcats this year and one wonders just how good the 2009-10 Wildcats would have been if Meeks had stayed?

Clearly, the 2009-10 edition of the Wildcats is pretty darned good even without Meeks. The 6-9 Patrick Patterson returned for his junior season and has averaged 16.3 PPG and 7.9 RPG plus sophomore guard Darius Miller has chipped in 7.3 PPG. However, it's "the new guys" (a Calipari staple), who have been the difference-makers for the Wildcats. No one has made a bigger impression than 6-4 freshman guard John Wall, who leads the team in scoring (17.1) and assists (6.9), while adding 3.7 RPG. Two more freshman, the 6-11 Cousins (15.3-9.3) and 6-1 guard Bledsoe (11.4-2.8-3.0) have also made major contributions.

The 6-7 Darnell Dodson (7.1) is a "Calipari special." Dodson was signed by Pitt in 2007 but didn't make it through the NCAA Clearinghouse and enrolled at Miami-Dade CC. He was not allowed to return to the Big East, so he signed with Memphis and played a second season with Miami-Dade (a school which featured six other Div I signees last season). He was set to join Memphis this year but when Calipari left for Kentucky and brought assistant Orlando Antigua with him (Antigua is a former Pitt assistant who originally recruited Dodson for the Panthers), Dodson was allowed to follow the two coaches to Lexington.

Kentucky is averaging 82.2 PPG while shooting 50.0 percent as a team. The Wildcats are holding opponents to 65.3 PPG on 38.4 percent from the floor, an average margin of victory of 16.9 points. However, despite its 18-0 mark, Kentucky is a modest 8-8 ATS. While it's unlikely the Wildcats will go through the season unbeaten, it's highly likely they'll move to 19-0 this coming Saturday by beating the mediocre Razorbacks. A win will guarantee that the Wildcats will be the nation's new No. 1 team come Monday.

If so, it will mark the 89th time the Wildcats will have been voted the AP's No. 1 team, the fourth-most of any school. UCLA has spent 134 weeks as the AP's No. 1 team, the most of any school. Duke has been ranked No. 1 the second-most of any school, spending 111 weeks at No. 1 with North Carolina claiming the top spot 105 times.

Closing thought: Where is the Pac 10? Not a single Pac 10 team was listed among the AP's top-25 poll released back on January 11. Again this week when the the latest poll was released on January 18, no Pac 10 team made the list. Looking among the category of "others to have received votes," one will find Arizona State (14-5) ranked 43rd, behind noted basketball powerhouses like Cornell, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech and Old Dominion. Cal (11-6) and Washington (12-5) were both among the preseason top-25 teams with Cal ranked 13th and Washington 14th but neither school received a single vote in the latest poll. John Wooden is not pleased.

Good luck, Larry