Johnny Detroit

Can you beat the NBA? Yes and I will tell you how......

Johnny Detroit — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:15:00 GMT

There are various theories when it comes to trying to beat the system and overcome the 4.5% hold that is the mathematical long term profit for the book to keep on every single dollar you wager laying -110 juice.

Some can spend countless hours studying weather, matchups, trends and stats to try and "out" handicap the oddsmakers.

Some will invest money in buying picks from professional sports services and entrust their bankroll in that the paid handicapper will put in the time and effort on their behalf in hopes of turning a profit.

Some will create their own power rating systems and compare their lines versus the actual number at the sportsbook and take advantage in any variance between the two in hopes the number they generated is more accurate to what will happen in the game.

Some will follow public betting trends using the various models around the net (including Sportsbook Spy here at Pregame.com).

Some will comb the forums trying to find the current flavor of the day who is hot or some "system" that is on a hot run.

Even though some will find success with the above methods, the fact is the sportsbooks are still giving out free drinks and the bookie in your neighborhood still drives a nicer car than you. In the end, is the system beatable? I would have to answer yes, but....... The "but" in my opinion is the most important thing in trying to win in sports gambling. This "but" is value and getting the best number possible on the wager you make. No matter how great you are at handicapping or how solid your system is, if you continually lay a bad number, it is nearly impossible to overcome the 1/2 point losses that will slowly build up over the course of the season. For example, let us look at the numbers pulled from almost a complete season of NBA action:

Home team +0.0: 675-668-27
Home team +1.0: 728-613-29
Home team +1/2: 702-642-26

You might ask, what in the hell does that even mean? What does it mean? VALUE. Even though many will debate this, the closing number is the sharpest number. The opening number that is released on a game will get beat up by the public, sharps and opinionated bookmakers before settling at the closing number. What you see above is how "home teams" did against the closing number. Betting for or against the home team is essentially a coin flip and with the -110 factored in will end up making the book money NO MATTER what side you take:

Blanket betting on the home team at $100.00 per game: +$67,500 / -$73,480 = -$5980
Blanket betting against the home team at $100.00 per game: -$74,250 / +$66,800 = = -$7450

The amazing part of the numbers above? The end result of whether you take the home or away team, you will lose around 4.5-5.0% of every dollar wagered. Scary ain't it how accurate the math is on sports for what the book will hold just like every other casino type game? Now for the next part of our experiment, what happens if we "beat" the closing number? For example, say a home favorite ends up -5.0 and you are able to get a -4.0.

Blanket betting the home team if you can get at least one point in your favor: 728-613-29 or at $100.00 per game would net $72,800 in winners and $67,430 in losers for a NET PROFIT of +5370. The real amazing part of beating the closing number is you take away the hold from the house and now have it in your favor. You have 1370 games at $100 each for a total of $137,000 in action. From there you take 4.5% and have $6165, but factoring out the "pushes" the number is just above $6000. Lastly, you need to realize you are getting paid +100 on wins rather than +110, so the end result is by beating the closing number you just entered bizarro world and placed the "edge" in the hands of the player rather than the sportsbook.

Want to take it a step further? In the exact same game, in the event the closing number favors the road team, if you can get the road team one point or better than the closing number you will end up 721-613-36 or +$72,100 and -$67,430 for a net profit of +4670. Mind you, this is at only $100 a game, so you can see how a betting syndicate betting $1000's and beating the books to the closing number can rake in the cash.

Now the real interesting part. Unlike some tout claiming to be on a 50-0 run and hitting 80% lifetime, I just showed you the "math" on how you can actually win in the NBA and what is the end winning percentage? Yep, 54%. A whopping 54%. Using the above system you can hit 54% and make more than you could working any 9-5 if you have the bankroll to bet real money.

Obviously being ahead of every closing number is nearly impossible. Of course you will have games move back and forth and trying to beat the move can get you stuck on a comeback game and when the number closes you might be on the wrong side. I am quite aware the numbers above are in a perfect scenario of timing and being on the right number not only before but after the move. The purpose of all of this is not to have you watching lines 24/7 to try and beat all the closing numbers but paint a picture and understand "value". This value can be found in having multuple outs or passing on a game where you might have missed the "right" number". If a professional betting syndicate puts an order out at +7.0 and the runner can only find a +6.0, they are not firing at the +6.0 just so they can get action in. The bottom line is it boils down to almost everything a casino offers, math. The edge for the house is hidden inside that number and if you can beat that number like a card counter can beat blackjack the house edge is now gone.

Once again, this exercise is about understanding the importance of the best number and not giving you a fool proof system to become a millionaire. As always, best of luck today.

Sports Betting: Can You Win Betting Against the Public?

Johnny Detroit — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 16:40:00 GMT

Whether it is in the forums, sportsbooks or at the corner bar you always here the infamous "the public is all over this team, take the opposite!". I have lost count of all the "anti-public" systems that have been claimed to be "bookie killers" and were simple as fading the public. You can actually see the public data here at Pregame using the Sportsbook Spy feature. Here is something that I think might come to a shock to everyone, but the public is not that bad people! Blanket fading what the public likes will do nothing but eventually make you go broke unless you are the one booking the action. Here is why in one simple math equation:

-110=4.5%

There you go. All the systems for the most part go up in flames. You see, the sportsbook hopes to hold 4.5% of every single dollar wagered by their players based of the -110 in vig/juice they charge on losers. Let me paint the picture another way:

Bears -7 (75% public)
Lions +7

Lions lose by 3 and the public loses, but (and a big but) the sportsbook collects at +110 profit while you are only getting +100. By taking the side of the sportsbook you do so giving up the almighty vig that is what in the end allows the book to have an edge over the player. Say the opposite happens and the Bears destroy the Lions. The sportsbook is only paying out at even money while you are paying your loss with an extra 10% tacked on.

Obviously, the above scenario just points to blanket betting, which moves on to the next system that is very popular among the forums the past few years. This system involves seeing the public all over a game but the line staying the same of moving the other way. The automatic assumption is it must be the "wiseguys" on the other side holding that line steady. Okay, first off, NO ONE knows what wiseguy action is officially but the wiseguys themselves. Did the line move because of weather or a possible injury? Are the professionals looking to move the line a certain way and buy it back in bulk, this making the flip side the real play? Is there a tout on a hot run that just released? Also, do not forget, not all professionals are going to agree on the same side or total. Does in some fashion this theory make sense; sure. The main dilemma when using this system is getting the best number. A few years back there were a group of guys posting picks on the forum using this system and KILLING IT. I mean at one point, I think they were up like 70 units. Where are they now? Bueller? Bueller? What I argued with the ringleader back than eventually happened, the true math of if all played out and they ended up being buried. Why? Well here is why:

Bears -7, line goes to -6.0 by Sunday (75% public)
Lions +7, line goes to +6.0 by Sunday

The game ends up with the Bears winning by 7, thus a push for the wiseguys, but a loser for the steam chasers. A few years back I took 3 months of every game with a huge public side and than took the theory of the line movement going the opposite way. I broke it down into two columns, one with the right number and one with the number after the move. At the very end of all the adding and subtracting, the bottom number had the wiseguys + and the steamchasers -. Same games, same bets, but with DIFFERENT NUMBERS. The simple fact someone trying to figure what is sharp but not getting the number they professional played will not work long term. The most important thing in sports betting is getting the best number possible. If a play is a play at +7 and it is now +6, the real professional is going to pass on the game and maybe start planning for a possible middle. Playing bad numbers will do nothing but make you go broke.

I am not saying their are not systems that can use public data as a tool, because personally I use it as part of what I do on a daily basis. But to think a hold % that a sportsbook has with people laying -110 is enough to warrant you "fading" the public is a bad move and eventually will not be profitable.

If there are any good public systems, I would love to hear them and maybe together we can do some back data and try and find that diamond in the rough.

In the meantime, thanks for listening to me ramble and best of luck to everyone today!

-JD

Is Baseball Stars the greatest baseball video game ever?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:54:00 GMT

Modern day video games are very realistic when it comes to stats, names, game play, and graphics. No matter how much of an old school gamer you are, it is very difficult to say that the greatest football game of all time, TECMO BOWL, is as good on paper as the newest Madden. Trust me, I spent a portion of my life in Tony's basement with a group of friends drinking beer and playing tournament after tournament of TECMO. But, even I can't claim as an overall game that TECMO is comparable to Madden. When comparing the actual era, of course TECMO is king, but side by side in 2008, Madden wins in a route.

The other night we were talking about old school sport's game and the topic of baseball games came up. I assumed that Baseball Stars would be crowned the undisputed king of my childhood, but was shocked to find so much dissent in the group. There was the RBI portion who made claim to the MLB and the fact RBI was the first realistic baseball game. Than from the end of the bar, another friend was stunned that we were not including Bases Loaded in the mix as he felt it was the first "great graphics" sports game and was ahead of the curve in terms of visuals. Once the debate became even more heated, Baseball Simulator was even brought up, even though I do not remember even playing it back in the day.

When the dust settled, even though most people stuck to their favorites, the majority ruled that Baseball Stars is the all time disputed baseball game when you base the decision off of the era released. I can recall long hours in my basement with friends playing our league with teams we created and boosting stats with the money made from victories.

In a small Irish Pub in Detroit, a group of people handed the title to Baseball Stars. But, here at Pregame.com, we have a large diverse audience that extends all over this great country of ours. So the question to you my fellow gamers is this:

What is the greatest baseball game of all time based of the era released and why?

Ready to middle some basketball?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:19:00 GMT

If you have enough outs (local and offshore) AND can get on the moves before they happen there is a lot of money that can be made. You always hear people talk about middling, but most of the time they really do not know what the hell they are talking about. When it comes right down to it, sports gambling is math. Almost everything has some type of value. There is a reason all books charge the same for buying 1/2 points. Everything has some type of percentage behind it and like the casino when buying insurance in BJ, the books/casino will ALWAYS make you pay more than the real assigned value.

If you can find a solid local who is old school, always keep them as an out. The advantages with them not moving lines is well worth it. Say a game is hit from 7 to 5 and your local still has the 7, you can middle it all day. One thing a lot of middlers do is lean with the move to cover the juice. So you would bet 1000 at +7 and 900 at -5. So if the middle does not hit and assuming the move is sharp, it will help offset some of the juice on the losers. This assumes the move is based off sharp action and there is no exact science behind it, but some people I respect follow this plan.

(the information below is data collected over the years from fellow middles and middlers who shared data on forums in the past)

Need at least a point and half in both college and NBA at -110.

This shows the number and % of time games fall within X # of points with the side/total and the cumulative percentage.

For example in the NBA 3.84% the result was one point off from the spread either way and 9.73% of the time it fell within one or less.

NBA Sides
0 60 2.28% 2.28%
0.5 95 3.61% 5.89%
1 101 3.84% 9.73%
1.5 95 3.61% 13.35%
2 110 4.18% 17.53%
2.5 86 3.27% 20.80%
3 95 3.61% 24.41%
3.5 85 3.23% 27.64%
4 95 3.61% 31.25%

NBA Totals
0 25 0.95% 0.95%
0.5 63 2.40% 3.35%
1 72 2.74% 6.08%
1.5 46 1.75% 7.83%
2 57 2.17% 10.00%
2.5 51 1.94% 11.94%
3 56 2.13% 14.07%
3.5 72 2.74% 16.81%
4 73 2.78% 19.58%

CBB Sides
0 117 2.04% 2.04%
0.5 210 3.67% 5.71%
1 223 3.89% 9.60%
1.5 206 3.60% 13.20%
2 231 4.03% 17.23%
2.5 215 3.75% 20.99%
3 224 3.91% 24.90%
3.5 226 3.95% 28.85%
4 210 3.67% 32.51%

CBB Totals
0 71 1.24% 1.24%
0.5 115 2.01% 3.25%
1 150 2.62% 5.87%
1.5 107 1.87% 7.74%
2 143 2.50% 10.23%
2.5 113 1.97% 12.21%
3 144 2.51% 14.72%
3.5 113 1.97% 16.69%
4 156 2.72% 19.42%

The data shows you will win 51.9% of the time if you get a half point from the pointspread. This equates to 8 cents on the moneyline. Use the 8 cents for a half point to determine the cut off for making money.

If you have a 1.5 point middle then you are gaining a value of 24 cents and it is a +ev play at -110 both sides (20 cent difference). You need a 1.5 point middle at -110 to cross the threshold for a +ev play. There are lines that aren't -110 so I think it is easiers to use the 8 cent moneyline value to determine a +ev play. For example, a 2 point middle at -120 one side and -110 other side has a 30 cent difference, but the value is worth about 32 cents (8 x 4) so this just barely crosses the value for a +ev play.

Remember, this is based off of -110, so you can gamble even more if you have -105 accounts available. I used to have a ton, but -105 shops are not big fans of people beating them by a few points per game.

If you had to ask me the easiest way to get middles if you only want to do it part-part-part time is be on top of key injuries. There is always going to be someone that breaks the news first on a guy like Tony Romo not playing. For example, I had an alert on Romo missing the four weeks and went in to grabs tons of +12 on the flip side. Before hitting submit, I called on my speakphone a friend in Vegas that is part of a middling team that terrorizes the books in town to let him know. The few minutes it took to call him before I hit submit cost me the bet (ugh). So think of the total effort it took to do this:

1) Breaking news on Tony Romo being out (obvious key player)
2) Check the line to see it has not moved and see it sitting at the +12 still
3) Bet AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE on the +12
4) Game is pulled once it becames news across the board
5) Game is now put back up at Dallas -7 (some places at 6.5)
6) Take the Cowboys -6.5

So you now have a HUGE MIDDLE that goes thru 7 and 10. Think of it as a free one team teaser! If you tried to buy that many points, it would cost you between -220 and -240. So think of that in this way, how rich would you be if you were able to bet -240 favorites at -110? Are all middles this extreme or easy, of course not, but this is an actual example that was readily available in the last day or so. Man, I can't wait for basketball season!

NFL Football Picks: Can the Browns Salvage the Home Underdog on MNF?

Johnny Detroit — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 05:40:00 GMT

There is one constant in sports gambling. That constant is that by the time the masses catch on to something to the point they can beat the bookie, things will change in the opposite direction. In this example, I am referring to the infamous home underdog on Monday Night Football. The season started off with the Denver Broncos DESTROYING the home dog Oakland Raiders 41-14 to continue the trend to once again take money from the public bettors who have fallen under the guise of home dogs on MNF the past few seasons.

If you go back to last year, road favorites won at a 67% clip to continue the downard spiral of the home underdog on Monday Night. This could be the reason at last check close to 66% of the public was fed up with donating money to their bookie and backed the New York Giants in the hopes fading the home dog would cash in for them. So what happens? Yep, you guessed it. The Cleveland Browns getting a full touchdown at home dominate the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants and win 35-14, baffling sports bettors yet again.

Like anything in life, if something seems to good to be true it probably is.

College Football Betting: Biggest Movers This Week

Johnny Detroit — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:46:00 GMT

Heads or tails? Half full or half empty? Each and every day there is a line posted the eternal battle between the opening line from the linesmakers and the movement from wiseguy action rages on. Outside of something like the Super Bowl or an occasional Monday Night Game, the movement you see during the week is from professional betting groups. I am sure you always hear the line movement is because the book is trying to balance the public action and make the juice, but how many recreational bettors are betting the Saturday 3:30pm EST college game on Tuesday at 7:42 in enough volume to move the line? I will revisit this thread next week to see how well the linesmakers opener did against the movement from the wiseguys and review any of the middles that were available to regular people like me due to this constant battle:

#109/110: East Carolina opened up as a 4.5 point favorite and is currently sitting at a 6 across the board with 57% of the bets offshore backing the fav.
#117/118: Even though 69% of the action loves Michigan State to give Northwestern their first loss, the $ that matters has bet the Wildcats from a 3 point underdog down to 1.5.
#119/120: Two potent offenses, but the opening total number of 58 is down to 55 as of now at some of the major sharp betting shops.
#121/122: This is an interesting one. 70% of the action is on Army -2.5, but the line is now down to a pick against Eastern Michigan (there goes your books trying to balance the action theory).
#135/136: Close to 90% of the early action liked Central Michigan minus the points, but the line has went from -10 down to -7. Three points.....
#145/146: This one opeend up at -25, but right now USC is favored by 28 over Arizona State.
#151/152: No one believes Notre Dame is for real. This line opened at North Carolina -5, but is now sitting at 7.5-8.
#175/176: Penn State BCS bound? Wisconsin had dreams of the BCS and now can only hope for the Capital One Bowl. This line opened at Penn State -4 and is now sitting at -6.

Looking at the board, who do I think could be the next moved? Personally, Kansas State opened at -3.5 and was bet down to -2.5. Despite getting rolled last week, I can see this line moving back up and closing closer to the original opener. Would love to hear what games you think well end up as the "biggest mover" of the week?

Sports Betting: What are some common square mistakes?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:53:00 GMT

First off, everyone loves to be a square at one time or another. Personally, I have been booted from close to 10 offshore sportsbooks. At BetUS, they deal me different lines and will only allow me to RISK $500.00 per bet. Bodog will also deal me a sharp line and not allow me to bet the line the majority of their audience is allowed to use. My friend over at Bet Jamaica will allow me to play there, but not credit me any bonuses on a deposit. It is nearly impossible for me to get a local to let me play once I bet a total and it moves 3 points by the time the game kicks. Despite all this, I bet a parlay on the lottery a few weeks back. While in Vegas I love "Wheel of Fortune" slot machines and will toss a $20.00 on the "Big Wheel" despite a house edge of 11-24% (11% for the 1-1 and 25% for the logo/40-1 bets). When bored at home I will always toss in some prop bets on Monday Night Football. Honestly, I have even played blackjack using an online casino (junkie alert). There is nothing wrong with having some fun with gambling, but you should learn there is a difference in fun and wrongly thinking you are making a sharp play.

Bad weather means under: This is one of my favorite ones. A guy betting $100.00 on a football game is the only person on the planet who is aware of wind and rain that is going to hit the area around game time. I mean, why would the people making the lines or the sportsbooks adjusting them (lines) based off six figures of action not know this? The thing is, everything from public perception to weather conditions is already factored into any line or total. If a fluke storm suddenly is coming, the total will move based of the new valuations based on the new information. Just a quick FYI, your house is not the only place that has the Weather Channel.

Defense wins championships: ESPN did a great study a while back looking at the "Big Dance". The findings showed that a potent offense and possession was more of a factor than a "solid defense". In football, who cares if you have a great defense if you can't score? Remember Vanderbilt a few years back? Great defense but could not ever score. Give me a potent offense with great ball control over a great defense any day. A solid offense can dominate the time of possession, which is one of the main things people tend to not factor in when handicapping sports. If you look at the NFL last season, the team with the better quarterback tended to have a common correlation with covering the spread. There are numerous obvious reasons why this would be the case, but a good QB has the ability to lead the OFFENSE and control the clock AND put up points. If you take the time to break it down, there are many times the GREAT defensive stats are not due to a GREAT defense but rather that the GREAT offense held the ball most of the game and the defenders were able to spend most of the game on the sideline acting like fools everytime the camera is on them.

Bet on Monday Night Football home underdogs: If you bet on the home underdog last season on MNF you would have won an amazing 33% of your wagers. See, one of the BIGGEST mistakes people make is thinking no one knows something but them. If there is an edge or flaw in the lines, due to the money involved, this will eventually be corrected. From the 1970's to around 2000, following this the dog on Monday was hitting close to 60%. Over the past eight years? A coin flip at best. Actually, over the past few seasons, is actually BELOW 50%. Out of all the edges I have seen over the years, this probably could be the longest one to adjust (probably due to the lack of the internet in mass for people and sites to point out flaws in lines). For example, there were some great 2nd half NBA trends involving the Kings a couple years ago, but about a month and a half in, the lines were adjusted and even the juice was inflated to offset the edge. It seemed every single forum on the planet was talking about it and the books saw a huge influx of 2nd half wagers all of a sudden. They put the clamp down on this right away.

I am sure all of us have been at a bar or with friends when someone starts spouting some gambling theory that you know is 100% nonsense. Would love to hear some of your favorite gambling tall tales.

The Detroit Lions suck worse than you think......

Johnny Detroit — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:59:00 GMT

I have been a Detroit Lion's season ticket holder since #20, Barry Sanders, dazzled football fans everywhere with a playoff victory against the Dallas Cowboys. I saw numerous choke jobs (cough cough, playoff game against the Packers with the infamous Favre to Sharpe Hail Mary). Despite all the heartbreak and disappointment, each year I sign the check and set myself up for another year of misery. But, according to almost all of the publications and T.V. experts, the Lions offense would be so exciting this season they could make a push toward a division title. Well, four games into the season, Kitna was benched in the 4th game and the Lions have only been close to winning one game (the Packers). Outside of that they have been beyond horrible. One friend of mine has made a point to try and start the defense and the QB playing each week against the Lions. I personally took a shot on Kyle Orton on Sunday and was able to put up 30+ fantasy points.

If you break down the first four games of the season, you find that the Detroit Lions have allowed teams to break records and have career days. Not bad considering they are only 4 games into the damn season!

Game #1: Matt Ryan became the 1st QB in 8+ years to start his career with a touchdown pass. Turner goes for 220 with two TDs to break the team record for yards (the Falcons as a whole also set a team rushing record at 318) AND set the NFL record for most yards by a runner in their first start for a new team.

Game #2: Aaron Rodgers said "Brett Who?" and tossed for a meager 328 yards (24 of 38) with 3 touchdown passes.

Game #3: Detroit Lions kicked Mike Martz to the curb and ended up coaching the 49ers. So in game #3, Martz humilated his former team 31-13. San Francisco put up more yards in this game than they did in almost any game all of last year. How bad is the Lion's defense? Well, SF quarterback O'Sullivan was sacked 12 times in the first two games but only was taken down ONCE by Detroit.

Game #4: Kyle Orton: Career day against the Lion's defense, 24-34 for 334 yards and 2 TDs (no INTS)

Alas, another season of misery and disappointment. When the season is all said and done, I will (sigh) sign that check yet again on the promose of new management and some stud draft pick. Is there any hope for this franchise or will my children's children be forced to endure the same disappointment I have lived through?

Does football suck this season or is it just me?

Johnny Detroit — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 15:25:00 GMT

First off, I am not referring to the horrible weekend I had with my selections or the fact I am under 50% in college football (still doing well in pro ball though). What I am ranting about is football overall this season for both the NFL and College. As I write this, this season has been going by very quicky in my opinon due to being one of the weakest starts to football in recent memory. Why? Well, let me count the ways:

1) Tom Brady. Say what you want about the Patriots, it was exciting to watch them every week and wonder if this could be the week they lose a game. Well, they did lose a game. You know, they were rolled by Super Bowl contending Miami Dolphins. Lame!

2) Dallas Cowboys. Every season you need those elite teams that everyone is gunning to take out. With the Brady injury mentioned above, the team to hold the gauntlet in the NFL was going to be the Romo led Cowboys. DOH! Here comes the mighty Washington Redskins to end that a few weeks into the season. SUPER LAME!

3) USC and Ohio State. People were hyping this game up since last season. Well, the hype ended a few minutes into the game when USC decided to convince the Buckeyes they were playing a Bowl Game against the SEC.

4) Georgia and Florida. Despite the tough SEC schedule, these two teams would end up battling USC or Oklahoma in the BCS Championship and dominate the season. Well, Florida goes down as a huge favorite and the Bulldogs get destroyed at home. YAWN.

5) Clemson. This is their year. Could play in the BCS Title? Well, I think Alabama is still scoring on them.

I could go on and one with disappointments and lackluster hyped up games. We are a few weeks in and there is not anything right now that has my interested peeked. To top that off, Tom Brady was my fantasy quarterback in my first season playing. Am I just being a baby or is this season, outside of Alabama's run, just a huge disappointment?

Is the Big 10 the worst of the worst this season?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:46:00 GMT

First off, I am a Big 10 homer. I will be quick to point out that in Bowl Games (despite being in the SEC's backyard), the Big 10 is a coin flip against the SEC in Bowl Games. If you factor out the "choke of all Bowl Game chokers, Ohio State, the upper Big 10 teams have beaten the SEC) I will be also quick to point out that in the Citrus/Capital One Bowl that matches up the top SEC and Big 10 teams not in a BCS Bowl, the "southern boys" have been the "northern boys" bitch the last 10 or so years. Being even a BIGGER Michigan homer, I always will point out with the win over Florida, Michigan improved to 12-4 against historical members of the SEC and 20-5-1 against current members. At the same time, none of this changes the fact as a conference, the Big 10 this season reminds me of the ACC when Florida State was really the only good team and the rest were a bunch of scrubs. So why is a Big 10 fan blasting his conference in 2008? Well, let us take a look at the top of top:

Penn State: The Big 10 version of the 1990's ACC's Florida State. They destroyed Oregon State and have looked amazing in every game so far. They are my sleeper BCS Champion due to the Big 10 being so weak this year and the fact Penn State when given time to prepare is great in Bowl Games:

(2007 they beat #18 Texas A&M in Texas 24-0)

2006	Outback	Tennessee	W	20-10
2005	Orange	Florida State	W	26-23
2002	Capital One	Auburn	L	9-13
1999	Alamo	Texas A&M	W	24-0
1998	Outback	Kentucky	W	26-14
1997	Citrus	Florida	L	6-21
1996	Fiesta	Texas	W	38-15
1995	Outback	Auburn	W	43-14
1994	Rose	Oregon	W	38-20
1993	Citrus	Tennessee	W	31-13
1992	Blockbuster	Stanford	L	3-24
1991	Fiesta	Tennessee	W	42-17

The best of the rest:

Illinois: Rolled by Penn State and already let Missouri put up 50+ on them.

Ohio State: The only good team they have beat in recent years has been Michigan. The big Ohio State vs USC battle turned into a massacre to the delight of anti-Ohio State fans worldwide.

Michigan State: Even though they did not lose like Ohio State did when playing the Pac 10, they went out West already and were downed by Cal.

Wisconsin: Should have lost to Fresno State and were defeated by a team full of freshman at Michigan.

Minnesota: Nice 12 point win over Montana State.......

Northwestern: We should be serious here. Barely beat Duke, Ohio and Iowa. They could easily be under .500, so try and avoid annointing them as a stud team. All the Wildcats are doing is setting themselves up for playing a powerhouse in a Bowl Game and getting embarrased.

I do believe that Penn State could either beat or play a close game against any team in the country. But, when you factor in the Big 10 overall and put them in a tournament format based off level of skill against a comparable team in another conference, is there a major conference out there right now who could not win this mythical tournament?

So, if I think the Big 10 is the bottom of the barrel, who is the cream of the crop? The fact is, no matter what the Big 12 fans say, they are still sitting at #2 to the mighty SEC. The SEC has won three of the past five National Championships (this does not include Auburn being shafted when 13-0 in 2004). If the BCS is the best of the best, than the SEC winning 7 of their past 9 appearances (outscoring other conferences the past four years in the BCS 161-62) is just the proof in the pudding of SEC dominance.

After the SEC and Big 12, the Pac 10's, ACC's and Big East's all sit in the middle with the Big 10 looking up. Interested in thoughts from all the football experts at the forums.

Where were you on 9-11?

Johnny Detroit — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:57:00 GMT

I was still with Ford Motor Company as an investigator. Was working on a case and printing out some documents for a meeting. The printer was in this middle common area where they also had TVs etc. I walk to get my print outs and see all these people watching the TV. At this time people thought it was just a horrible accident (1st plane). People were talking and wondering how someone could have lost control of a plane or what malfunction could have caused that to happen. No one (at this point at least) even thought it was a terrorist who flew the plane into the building.Than the 2nd plane hit and at that moment everyone knew it was no accident. People rushed to go online to see what was going on, but CNN, FOX, DRUDGE were all down due to server overload. I called a friend of mine who worked for the airlines and she said they had military and police in the airport running around and all flights were grounded.

Shortly after the building came down and the feeling inside was surreal. There was the one guy who as the buildining crumbled broke down into tears. People had radios going all over to try and get the latest news updates. Soon after Ford ordered all employees to exit all work buildings and head right home. Streams of cars leaving all the offices, plants and businesses all over. The breaking news broadcasts and rumors on what was going on.

My good friend worked midnights and I knew he was still sleeping. I called him and said what happened and he did not believe me. To say the words, "I think we are at war" was pretty weird to say.

I still remember at night with people waving flags. The local grocery store had trucks all over getting filled with food and supplies to send to NY. In a weird way, a lot of good came out of that day. It seemed everyone across the board at that moment became one country regardless of color of skin, who you voted for or what you did for a living. Sad that it took something that horrific for people to actually give a shit about one another.

What were you doing on 9-11?

Johnny Detroit's BIGGEST Junkie Bet of All Time:

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:20:00 GMT

Anyone have the phone number to GA? Seriously. Not sure how much more of a junkie you could get.....But, here we go. I will paste the parley and you can figure it our for yourself:

Wager details for ticket number 22796358-1:

Wager Type:    Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status:    Pending
Risk / To Win Amount:    200.00 / 8,994.34 (USD)    Accepted 9/8/2008 11:53 PM - EST

Item #1
Wager Type:    Money Line
Outcome:    Win
Sport / Period:    Lotto Misc. / Game
Line:
     Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 09/09 9/9/2008 10:30:01 PM - (EST)
+779
Opponent:    No Jackpot Winner Today

Item #2
Wager Type:    Money Line
Outcome:    Pending
Sport / Period:    Lotto Misc. / Game
Line:
     Powerball Jackpot Winner 09/10 9/10/2008 10:30:01 PM - (EST)
+423
Opponent:    No Jackpot Winner Today

Yes. I bet a parlay on the lottery. Random balls tossed in an air machine. I bet a parlay on the little plastic balls. Sick, I know. Well, it was Monday Night Football and the Broncos/Raiders game was about to start and I took the Broncos, Broncos to score 1st, Broncos to win first half, etc. There was no offshore tips, line moves or insider information. My reasoning was the fact that Jamarcus Russell is a bum. A great athlete with the brain of someone who just had a rock fall on their head. Even in college they had a limited playbook for him because he was not able to lead any type of complex offense. Is it possible down the road he turns out to be an okay QB, sure. But, as of Monday he was still an overrated bum in my eyes. So there I am laying in bed after the Broncos victory hoping there was some late night badminton or cricket I could bet on (seriously). After playing around with all the stuff on the board I see the odds on the lottery and say "what the hell?"

Going into Wednesday, I have the big leg of the parlay won since someone won the Mega Millions. If the Power Ball cashes for some 92 year old guy with no family (isn't that how it always seem to end up?), I cash in one of the biggest parlay wins in my gambling career. Will I be forced to put an asterisk by the win since it was on the lottery? Maybe. But does this get me on the "Junkie Hall of Fame" first ballot when I hang up the gambling career? For sure......

Michigan Football: Johnny Detroit's Take

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:37:00 GMT

First off, I sweated my butt off sitting at the "big house" watching the Michigan-Utah game. Despite what anyone tries to say, watching football at Michigan Stadium is ANYTHING but enjoyable. I officially know what cattle must feel like cramped in some truck being shipped off to some meat packaging plant in the hot sun. The spots on the bleachers were established A LONG TIME AGO when people were not so big and fat. Don't get me wrong, seeing college football live is better than any sporting event, but the seating aspect is always a nightmare.

The way I look at Michigan Football is you need to take a few steps back to take a few steps forward. Now, I am going to say something that might offend all the Michigan homers out there, but here goes: You are not an elite football program. There, I said it. Yes, you are probably the most consistently "good program" in the country, but "elite" you are not. Not sure if anyone football team can claim the run Michigan has going to bowl games and having the winning percentage they do over the last 30 years. But, at the same time you can't claim ELITE when you consistently lose 2-4 games every single year and are a coin flip in bowl games (outside of playing the SEC, who Michigan owns). I kept seeing these shirts at the game about "11 National Championships." Sorry Michigan fan, but you have ONE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, the one from 1997. You can't count titles that were won before World War I or if people went to the game in a horse and buggy. That being said, Michigan is one of the most respected and storied programs in college football.

So with all of this off my chest, I could not be happier with Michigan than I am now. In my lifetime, handing the coach's whistle to another Bo disciple has ensured Michigan will lose the standard couple games despite being factored into the National Championship before the season kicks. With the hiring of Rich Rodriguez, Michigan is accepting people do not run up the middle 95% of the time and they know with the talent they can recruit with the right game plan can compete with the elite programs. People are forgetting that Utah is a potential BCS team and Michigan was playing a lot of freshman and walk-ons in skilled positions. After 100 years of the same playbook, even the veterans were playing a new system for the first time. Despite all of this, Michigan had more than one chance to win against a team some people claim could be undefeated by the time they play BYU. So is the glass half empty or half full? I am going with half full. The Wolverines looked better in the second half and will only improve as the season continues. Over the next few years, U o fM will be able to recruit the talent to fit the system they are implementing to take the program to the next level.

Would love to hear feedback from all your college football gurus on where you think Michigan will end up at the end of the season.

College Football Picks: Who do you like in Vols vs. Bruins?

Johnny Detroit — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 14:43:00 GMT

There is no denying that the SEC is the best conference in college football. At the same time, there is no denying those numbers are not AS GREAT when you take away the games played in the friendly confines of southern weather and fans. For example, Tennessee has only lost two season openers in the last 16 years and both of those times were games on the West Coast against Pac 10 schools. To take it even a step further, the mighty Volunteers are 3-9-1 when traveling to the West Coast to play football. Right now the line for this one has Tennessee sitting at a 7-point favorite as they make another West Coast trip and try to keep the SEC flavor alive after the "southern boys" handed out beatdowns on Thursday Night Football.

On and off paper, I do not see how Tennessee does not blow the Bruins out? On paper, UCLA is not returning a ton of starters and also is trying to work in the new QB against an SEC powerhouse. Off paper, a friend close to the UCLA program said their interior line looks bad; REALLY bad. He went as far as saying he does not see how Tennessee does not DESTROY the Bruins this weekend. Obviously, we know how stuff like that (rumors and second hand information) goes, a coin flip at best when it is all said and done.

For all you SEC and Pac 10 gurus, how do you think this game will play out? Will history hold true for the Vols when traveling away from home territory or will the current state of affairs lead to the Bruins getting rolled in front of the West Coast faithful? I guess that is why they call it gambling.....

College Football PIcks: What is your LOCK for Week #1?

Johnny Detroit — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:14:00 GMT

The clock is ticking and we are just over a week away from the opening week of college football. I already have that uneasy knot in my stomach of joy knowing that within a couple days I can start making college football picks. Some of the bigger games to watch are:

NC State
South Carolina -12

Oregon State -3
Stanford

Utah
Michigan -4

Syracuse
Northwestern -12

Oklahoma State -6.5
Washington State

Hawaii
Florida -34.5

Illinois
Missouri -9

Michigan State
California -5

Alabama
Clemson -5

Kentucky
Louisville -4

Tennessee -7
UCLA

The one game that makes me nervous is the Michigan-Utah game. Everything I am hearing out of the Michigan camp is pretty positive. Word is many of the young kids are shining and the speed factor is something the Wolverines have not had pushed in practice probably in a long time if EVER. The practices would make even Bo cringe as Coach Rich is running these kids hard. He is not a big believer in running practices without pads. The strength side of the equation is also something people will shocked to see. If you do not know, Michighan brought in a top notch "strength coach" and totally changed up the gym equipment for the first time in over 30 years. Does it matter? Well, considering there are NFL players training with this guy and using the Michigan facility, I would say yes. This line opened at -7 and was bet down by the professional gamblers to 4. Does this mean they like Utah to win? Of course not, it just means they like the 7 points. Now we have a mystery Michigan team with 3 points of value off the opening number. This is a tough one, but as I hear more out of camp it will be easier for me to decide on whether to take the home team or pass all together. Considering you can't get the 7 now, not sure how anyone can take Utah since they missed the chance to play the 7. So the play as of now is Michigan or pass. No matter how much someone likes Utah, you can't win long term playing numbers 3+ points off the opener.

When I look at the rest of the board, my initial thoughts (with no serious handicappoing or offshore tips) lean toward Michigan State, Alabama and Florida. Michigan State because I think they are going to be very much improved and that number on paper makes you want to take the home team laying less than a full TD. I picture a game decided by 3 or 4. On the Alabama side, it is hard to go against any SEC team getting points. Until the other conferences can start beating the SEC, give me the points. Finally, as of now, I like Florida to kill Hawaii. Florida is already trying to play catch-up to Georgia since they are sitting at the #5 spot. Toss in the fact the winner of Ohio State/USC depending on the type of win (close or blowout) is going to get some extra credit, DESTROYING Hawaii might be a must for the Tebow led Florida offense.

Curious on what games the forum has circled for week #1? Who are your "locks" the opening weekend of college football?