Johnny Detroit

College Football Betting: Biggest Movers This Week

2008-10-09T15:46:00Z

Heads or tails? Half full or half empty? Each and every day there is a line posted the eternal battle between the opening line from the linesmakers and the movement from wiseguy action rages on. Outside of something like the Super Bowl or an occasional Monday Night Game, the movement you see during the week is from professional betting groups. I am sure you always hear the line movement is because the book is trying to balance the public action and make the juice, but how many recreational bettors are betting the Saturday 3:30pm EST college game on Tuesday at 7:42 in enough volume to move the line? I will revisit this thread next week to see how well the linesmakers opener did against the movement from the wiseguys and review any of the middles that were available to regular people like me due to this constant battle:

#109/110: East Carolina opened up as a 4.5 point favorite and is currently sitting at a 6 across the board with 57% of the bets offshore backing the fav.
#117/118: Even though 69% of the action loves Michigan State to give Northwestern their first loss, the $ that matters has bet the Wildcats from a 3 point underdog down to 1.5.
#119/120: Two potent offenses, but the opening total number of 58 is down to 55 as of now at some of the major sharp betting shops.
#121/122: This is an interesting one. 70% of the action is on Army -2.5, but the line is now down to a pick against Eastern Michigan (there goes your books trying to balance the action theory).
#135/136: Close to 90% of the early action liked Central Michigan minus the points, but the line has went from -10 down to -7. Three points.....
#145/146: This one opeend up at -25, but right now USC is favored by 28 over Arizona State.
#151/152: No one believes Notre Dame is for real. This line opened at North Carolina -5, but is now sitting at 7.5-8.
#175/176: Penn State BCS bound? Wisconsin had dreams of the BCS and now can only hope for the Capital One Bowl. This line opened at Penn State -4 and is now sitting at -6.

Looking at the board, who do I think could be the next moved? Personally, Kansas State opened at -3.5 and was bet down to -2.5. Despite getting rolled last week, I can see this line moving back up and closing closer to the original opener. Would love to hear what games you think well end up as the "biggest mover" of the week?

Sports Betting: What are some common square mistakes?

2008-10-08T13:53:00Z

First off, everyone loves to be a square at one time or another. Personally, I have been booted from close to 10 offshore sportsbooks. At BetUS, they deal me different lines and will only allow me to RISK $500.00 per bet. Bodog will also deal me a sharp line and not allow me to bet the line the majority of their audience is allowed to use. My friend over at Bet Jamaica will allow me to play there, but not credit me any bonuses on a deposit. It is nearly impossible for me to get a local to let me play once I bet a total and it moves 3 points by the time the game kicks. Despite all this, I bet a parlay on the lottery a few weeks back. While in Vegas I love "Wheel of Fortune" slot machines and will toss a $20.00 on the "Big Wheel" despite a house edge of 11-24% (11% for the 1-1 and 25% for the logo/40-1 bets). When bored at home I will always toss in some prop bets on Monday Night Football. Honestly, I have even played blackjack using an online casino (junkie alert). There is nothing wrong with having some fun with gambling, but you should learn there is a difference in fun and wrongly thinking you are making a sharp play.

Bad weather means under: This is one of my favorite ones. A guy betting $100.00 on a football game is the only person on the planet who is aware of wind and rain that is going to hit the area around game time. I mean, why would the people making the lines or the sportsbooks adjusting them (lines) based off six figures of action not know this? The thing is, everything from public perception to weather conditions is already factored into any line or total. If a fluke storm suddenly is coming, the total will move based of the new valuations based on the new information. Just a quick FYI, your house is not the only place that has the Weather Channel.

Defense wins championships: ESPN did a great study a while back looking at the "Big Dance". The findings showed that a potent offense and possession was more of a factor than a "solid defense". In football, who cares if you have a great defense if you can't score? Remember Vanderbilt a few years back? Great defense but could not ever score. Give me a potent offense with great ball control over a great defense any day. A solid offense can dominate the time of possession, which is one of the main things people tend to not factor in when handicapping sports. If you look at the NFL last season, the team with the better quarterback tended to have a common correlation with covering the spread. There are numerous obvious reasons why this would be the case, but a good QB has the ability to lead the OFFENSE and control the clock AND put up points. If you take the time to break it down, there are many times the GREAT defensive stats are not due to a GREAT defense but rather that the GREAT offense held the ball most of the game and the defenders were able to spend most of the game on the sideline acting like fools everytime the camera is on them.

Bet on Monday Night Football home underdogs: If you bet on the home underdog last season on MNF you would have won an amazing 33% of your wagers. See, one of the BIGGEST mistakes people make is thinking no one knows something but them. If there is an edge or flaw in the lines, due to the money involved, this will eventually be corrected. From the 1970's to around 2000, following this the dog on Monday was hitting close to 60%. Over the past eight years? A coin flip at best. Actually, over the past few seasons, is actually BELOW 50%. Out of all the edges I have seen over the years, this probably could be the longest one to adjust (probably due to the lack of the internet in mass for people and sites to point out flaws in lines). For example, there were some great 2nd half NBA trends involving the Kings a couple years ago, but about a month and a half in, the lines were adjusted and even the juice was inflated to offset the edge. It seemed every single forum on the planet was talking about it and the books saw a huge influx of 2nd half wagers all of a sudden. They put the clamp down on this right away.

I am sure all of us have been at a bar or with friends when someone starts spouting some gambling theory that you know is 100% nonsense. Would love to hear some of your favorite gambling tall tales.

The Detroit Lions suck worse than you think......

2008-10-07T15:59:00Z

I have been a Detroit Lion's season ticket holder since #20, Barry Sanders, dazzled football fans everywhere with a playoff victory against the Dallas Cowboys. I saw numerous choke jobs (cough cough, playoff game against the Packers with the infamous Favre to Sharpe Hail Mary). Despite all the heartbreak and disappointment, each year I sign the check and set myself up for another year of misery. But, according to almost all of the publications and T.V. experts, the Lions offense would be so exciting this season they could make a push toward a division title. Well, four games into the season, Kitna was benched in the 4th game and the Lions have only been close to winning one game (the Packers). Outside of that they have been beyond horrible. One friend of mine has made a point to try and start the defense and the QB playing each week against the Lions. I personally took a shot on Kyle Orton on Sunday and was able to put up 30+ fantasy points.

If you break down the first four games of the season, you find that the Detroit Lions have allowed teams to break records and have career days. Not bad considering they are only 4 games into the damn season!

Game #1: Matt Ryan became the 1st QB in 8+ years to start his career with a touchdown pass. Turner goes for 220 with two TDs to break the team record for yards (the Falcons as a whole also set a team rushing record at 318) AND set the NFL record for most yards by a runner in their first start for a new team.

Game #2: Aaron Rodgers said "Brett Who?" and tossed for a meager 328 yards (24 of 38) with 3 touchdown passes.

Game #3: Detroit Lions kicked Mike Martz to the curb and ended up coaching the 49ers. So in game #3, Martz humilated his former team 31-13. San Francisco put up more yards in this game than they did in almost any game all of last year. How bad is the Lion's defense? Well, SF quarterback O'Sullivan was sacked 12 times in the first two games but only was taken down ONCE by Detroit.

Game #4: Kyle Orton: Career day against the Lion's defense, 24-34 for 334 yards and 2 TDs (no INTS)

Alas, another season of misery and disappointment. When the season is all said and done, I will (sigh) sign that check yet again on the promose of new management and some stud draft pick. Is there any hope for this franchise or will my children's children be forced to endure the same disappointment I have lived through?

Does football suck this season or is it just me?

2008-10-03T15:25:00Z

First off, I am not referring to the horrible weekend I had with my selections or the fact I am under 50% in college football (still doing well in pro ball though). What I am ranting about is football overall this season for both the NFL and College. As I write this, this season has been going by very quicky in my opinon due to being one of the weakest starts to football in recent memory. Why? Well, let me count the ways:

1) Tom Brady. Say what you want about the Patriots, it was exciting to watch them every week and wonder if this could be the week they lose a game. Well, they did lose a game. You know, they were rolled by Super Bowl contending Miami Dolphins. Lame!

2) Dallas Cowboys. Every season you need those elite teams that everyone is gunning to take out. With the Brady injury mentioned above, the team to hold the gauntlet in the NFL was going to be the Romo led Cowboys. DOH! Here comes the mighty Washington Redskins to end that a few weeks into the season. SUPER LAME!

3) USC and Ohio State. People were hyping this game up since last season. Well, the hype ended a few minutes into the game when USC decided to convince the Buckeyes they were playing a Bowl Game against the SEC.

4) Georgia and Florida. Despite the tough SEC schedule, these two teams would end up battling USC or Oklahoma in the BCS Championship and dominate the season. Well, Florida goes down as a huge favorite and the Bulldogs get destroyed at home. YAWN.

5) Clemson. This is their year. Could play in the BCS Title? Well, I think Alabama is still scoring on them.

I could go on and one with disappointments and lackluster hyped up games. We are a few weeks in and there is not anything right now that has my interested peeked. To top that off, Tom Brady was my fantasy quarterback in my first season playing. Am I just being a baby or is this season, outside of Alabama's run, just a huge disappointment?

Is the Big 10 the worst of the worst this season?

2008-10-01T15:46:00Z

First off, I am a Big 10 homer. I will be quick to point out that in Bowl Games (despite being in the SEC's backyard), the Big 10 is a coin flip against the SEC in Bowl Games. If you factor out the "choke of all Bowl Game chokers, Ohio State, the upper Big 10 teams have beaten the SEC) I will be also quick to point out that in the Citrus/Capital One Bowl that matches up the top SEC and Big 10 teams not in a BCS Bowl, the "southern boys" have been the "northern boys" bitch the last 10 or so years. Being even a BIGGER Michigan homer, I always will point out with the win over Florida, Michigan improved to 12-4 against historical members of the SEC and 20-5-1 against current members. At the same time, none of this changes the fact as a conference, the Big 10 this season reminds me of the ACC when Florida State was really the only good team and the rest were a bunch of scrubs. So why is a Big 10 fan blasting his conference in 2008? Well, let us take a look at the top of top:

Penn State: The Big 10 version of the 1990's ACC's Florida State. They destroyed Oregon State and have looked amazing in every game so far. They are my sleeper BCS Champion due to the Big 10 being so weak this year and the fact Penn State when given time to prepare is great in Bowl Games:

(2007 they beat #18 Texas A&M in Texas 24-0)

2006	Outback	Tennessee	W	20-10
2005	Orange	Florida State	W	26-23
2002	Capital One	Auburn	L	9-13
1999	Alamo	Texas A&M	W	24-0
1998	Outback	Kentucky	W	26-14
1997	Citrus	Florida	L	6-21
1996	Fiesta	Texas	W	38-15
1995	Outback	Auburn	W	43-14
1994	Rose	Oregon	W	38-20
1993	Citrus	Tennessee	W	31-13
1992	Blockbuster	Stanford	L	3-24
1991	Fiesta	Tennessee	W	42-17

The best of the rest:

Illinois: Rolled by Penn State and already let Missouri put up 50+ on them.

Ohio State: The only good team they have beat in recent years has been Michigan. The big Ohio State vs USC battle turned into a massacre to the delight of anti-Ohio State fans worldwide.

Michigan State: Even though they did not lose like Ohio State did when playing the Pac 10, they went out West already and were downed by Cal.

Wisconsin: Should have lost to Fresno State and were defeated by a team full of freshman at Michigan.

Minnesota: Nice 12 point win over Montana State.......

Northwestern: We should be serious here. Barely beat Duke, Ohio and Iowa. They could easily be under .500, so try and avoid annointing them as a stud team. All the Wildcats are doing is setting themselves up for playing a powerhouse in a Bowl Game and getting embarrased.

I do believe that Penn State could either beat or play a close game against any team in the country. But, when you factor in the Big 10 overall and put them in a tournament format based off level of skill against a comparable team in another conference, is there a major conference out there right now who could not win this mythical tournament?

So, if I think the Big 10 is the bottom of the barrel, who is the cream of the crop? The fact is, no matter what the Big 12 fans say, they are still sitting at #2 to the mighty SEC. The SEC has won three of the past five National Championships (this does not include Auburn being shafted when 13-0 in 2004). If the BCS is the best of the best, than the SEC winning 7 of their past 9 appearances (outscoring other conferences the past four years in the BCS 161-62) is just the proof in the pudding of SEC dominance.

After the SEC and Big 12, the Pac 10's, ACC's and Big East's all sit in the middle with the Big 10 looking up. Interested in thoughts from all the football experts at the forums.

Where were you on 9-11?

2008-09-11T14:57:00Z

I was still with Ford Motor Company as an investigator. Was working on a case and printing out some documents for a meeting. The printer was in this middle common area where they also had TVs etc. I walk to get my print outs and see all these people watching the TV. At this time people thought it was just a horrible accident (1st plane). People were talking and wondering how someone could have lost control of a plane or what malfunction could have caused that to happen. No one (at this point at least) even thought it was a terrorist who flew the plane into the building.Than the 2nd plane hit and at that moment everyone knew it was no accident. People rushed to go online to see what was going on, but CNN, FOX, DRUDGE were all down due to server overload. I called a friend of mine who worked for the airlines and she said they had military and police in the airport running around and all flights were grounded.

Shortly after the building came down and the feeling inside was surreal. There was the one guy who as the buildining crumbled broke down into tears. People had radios going all over to try and get the latest news updates. Soon after Ford ordered all employees to exit all work buildings and head right home. Streams of cars leaving all the offices, plants and businesses all over. The breaking news broadcasts and rumors on what was going on.

My good friend worked midnights and I knew he was still sleeping. I called him and said what happened and he did not believe me. To say the words, "I think we are at war" was pretty weird to say.

I still remember at night with people waving flags. The local grocery store had trucks all over getting filled with food and supplies to send to NY. In a weird way, a lot of good came out of that day. It seemed everyone across the board at that moment became one country regardless of color of skin, who you voted for or what you did for a living. Sad that it took something that horrific for people to actually give a shit about one another.

What were you doing on 9-11?

Johnny Detroit's BIGGEST Junkie Bet of All Time:

2008-09-10T14:20:00Z

Anyone have the phone number to GA? Seriously. Not sure how much more of a junkie you could get.....But, here we go. I will paste the parley and you can figure it our for yourself:

Wager details for ticket number 22796358-1:

Wager Type:    Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status:    Pending
Risk / To Win Amount:    200.00 / 8,994.34 (USD)    Accepted 9/8/2008 11:53 PM - EST

Item #1
Wager Type:    Money Line
Outcome:    Win
Sport / Period:    Lotto Misc. / Game
Line:
     Mega Millions Jackpot Winner 09/09 9/9/2008 10:30:01 PM - (EST)
+779
Opponent:    No Jackpot Winner Today

Item #2
Wager Type:    Money Line
Outcome:    Pending
Sport / Period:    Lotto Misc. / Game
Line:
     Powerball Jackpot Winner 09/10 9/10/2008 10:30:01 PM - (EST)
+423
Opponent:    No Jackpot Winner Today

Yes. I bet a parlay on the lottery. Random balls tossed in an air machine. I bet a parlay on the little plastic balls. Sick, I know. Well, it was Monday Night Football and the Broncos/Raiders game was about to start and I took the Broncos, Broncos to score 1st, Broncos to win first half, etc. There was no offshore tips, line moves or insider information. My reasoning was the fact that Jamarcus Russell is a bum. A great athlete with the brain of someone who just had a rock fall on their head. Even in college they had a limited playbook for him because he was not able to lead any type of complex offense. Is it possible down the road he turns out to be an okay QB, sure. But, as of Monday he was still an overrated bum in my eyes. So there I am laying in bed after the Broncos victory hoping there was some late night badminton or cricket I could bet on (seriously). After playing around with all the stuff on the board I see the odds on the lottery and say "what the hell?"

Going into Wednesday, I have the big leg of the parlay won since someone won the Mega Millions. If the Power Ball cashes for some 92 year old guy with no family (isn't that how it always seem to end up?), I cash in one of the biggest parlay wins in my gambling career. Will I be forced to put an asterisk by the win since it was on the lottery? Maybe. But does this get me on the "Junkie Hall of Fame" first ballot when I hang up the gambling career? For sure......

Michigan Football: Johnny Detroit's Take

2008-09-03T14:37:00Z

First off, I sweated my butt off sitting at the "big house" watching the Michigan-Utah game. Despite what anyone tries to say, watching football at Michigan Stadium is ANYTHING but enjoyable. I officially know what cattle must feel like cramped in some truck being shipped off to some meat packaging plant in the hot sun. The spots on the bleachers were established A LONG TIME AGO when people were not so big and fat. Don't get me wrong, seeing college football live is better than any sporting event, but the seating aspect is always a nightmare.

The way I look at Michigan Football is you need to take a few steps back to take a few steps forward. Now, I am going to say something that might offend all the Michigan homers out there, but here goes: You are not an elite football program. There, I said it. Yes, you are probably the most consistently "good program" in the country, but "elite" you are not. Not sure if anyone football team can claim the run Michigan has going to bowl games and having the winning percentage they do over the last 30 years. But, at the same time you can't claim ELITE when you consistently lose 2-4 games every single year and are a coin flip in bowl games (outside of playing the SEC, who Michigan owns). I kept seeing these shirts at the game about "11 National Championships." Sorry Michigan fan, but you have ONE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, the one from 1997. You can't count titles that were won before World War I or if people went to the game in a horse and buggy. That being said, Michigan is one of the most respected and storied programs in college football.

So with all of this off my chest, I could not be happier with Michigan than I am now. In my lifetime, handing the coach's whistle to another Bo disciple has ensured Michigan will lose the standard couple games despite being factored into the National Championship before the season kicks. With the hiring of Rich Rodriguez, Michigan is accepting people do not run up the middle 95% of the time and they know with the talent they can recruit with the right game plan can compete with the elite programs. People are forgetting that Utah is a potential BCS team and Michigan was playing a lot of freshman and walk-ons in skilled positions. After 100 years of the same playbook, even the veterans were playing a new system for the first time. Despite all of this, Michigan had more than one chance to win against a team some people claim could be undefeated by the time they play BYU. So is the glass half empty or half full? I am going with half full. The Wolverines looked better in the second half and will only improve as the season continues. Over the next few years, U o fM will be able to recruit the talent to fit the system they are implementing to take the program to the next level.

Would love to hear feedback from all your college football gurus on where you think Michigan will end up at the end of the season.

College Football Picks: Who do you like in Vols vs. Bruins?

2008-08-29T14:43:00Z

There is no denying that the SEC is the best conference in college football. At the same time, there is no denying those numbers are not AS GREAT when you take away the games played in the friendly confines of southern weather and fans. For example, Tennessee has only lost two season openers in the last 16 years and both of those times were games on the West Coast against Pac 10 schools. To take it even a step further, the mighty Volunteers are 3-9-1 when traveling to the West Coast to play football. Right now the line for this one has Tennessee sitting at a 7-point favorite as they make another West Coast trip and try to keep the SEC flavor alive after the "southern boys" handed out beatdowns on Thursday Night Football.

On and off paper, I do not see how Tennessee does not blow the Bruins out? On paper, UCLA is not returning a ton of starters and also is trying to work in the new QB against an SEC powerhouse. Off paper, a friend close to the UCLA program said their interior line looks bad; REALLY bad. He went as far as saying he does not see how Tennessee does not DESTROY the Bruins this weekend. Obviously, we know how stuff like that (rumors and second hand information) goes, a coin flip at best when it is all said and done.

For all you SEC and Pac 10 gurus, how do you think this game will play out? Will history hold true for the Vols when traveling away from home territory or will the current state of affairs lead to the Bruins getting rolled in front of the West Coast faithful? I guess that is why they call it gambling.....

College Football PIcks: What is your LOCK for Week #1?

2008-08-20T14:14:00Z

The clock is ticking and we are just over a week away from the opening week of college football. I already have that uneasy knot in my stomach of joy knowing that within a couple days I can start making college football picks. Some of the bigger games to watch are:

NC State
South Carolina -12

Oregon State -3
Stanford

Utah
Michigan -4

Syracuse
Northwestern -12

Oklahoma State -6.5
Washington State

Hawaii
Florida -34.5

Illinois
Missouri -9

Michigan State
California -5

Alabama
Clemson -5

Kentucky
Louisville -4

Tennessee -7
UCLA

The one game that makes me nervous is the Michigan-Utah game. Everything I am hearing out of the Michigan camp is pretty positive. Word is many of the young kids are shining and the speed factor is something the Wolverines have not had pushed in practice probably in a long time if EVER. The practices would make even Bo cringe as Coach Rich is running these kids hard. He is not a big believer in running practices without pads. The strength side of the equation is also something people will shocked to see. If you do not know, Michighan brought in a top notch "strength coach" and totally changed up the gym equipment for the first time in over 30 years. Does it matter? Well, considering there are NFL players training with this guy and using the Michigan facility, I would say yes. This line opened at -7 and was bet down by the professional gamblers to 4. Does this mean they like Utah to win? Of course not, it just means they like the 7 points. Now we have a mystery Michigan team with 3 points of value off the opening number. This is a tough one, but as I hear more out of camp it will be easier for me to decide on whether to take the home team or pass all together. Considering you can't get the 7 now, not sure how anyone can take Utah since they missed the chance to play the 7. So the play as of now is Michigan or pass. No matter how much someone likes Utah, you can't win long term playing numbers 3+ points off the opener.

When I look at the rest of the board, my initial thoughts (with no serious handicappoing or offshore tips) lean toward Michigan State, Alabama and Florida. Michigan State because I think they are going to be very much improved and that number on paper makes you want to take the home team laying less than a full TD. I picture a game decided by 3 or 4. On the Alabama side, it is hard to go against any SEC team getting points. Until the other conferences can start beating the SEC, give me the points. Finally, as of now, I like Florida to kill Hawaii. Florida is already trying to play catch-up to Georgia since they are sitting at the #5 spot. Toss in the fact the winner of Ohio State/USC depending on the type of win (close or blowout) is going to get some extra credit, DESTROYING Hawaii might be a must for the Tebow led Florida offense.

Curious on what games the forum has circled for week #1? Who are your "locks" the opening weekend of college football?

Is there anything better than the Olympics?

2008-08-15T15:38:00Z

I was up at 1:30 am EST last night watching women's gymnastics. There I said it. I have watched the Olympics in the past obviously, but there is something about this year that has me watching everything from water polo to fencing. I don't know if it is the hype about China getting more medals, the Phelps chase or the French shit talking. I can honestly say I have enjoyed watching the Olympics more than any other sporting event in 2008. The reason I can say that is because I LOVE football. I LOVE basketball. I LOVE baseball. In regards to the Olympics, I would never in my life watch fencing if it was on TV. I mean, come on now, fencing? Maybe if they used real swords and fought gladiator style, but does it getting any gayer than fencing? But, here I am working in my home office cheering on the USA over the French. Geez.....

So last night while me and the old lady are cheering on the USA in the women's gymnastics I started thinking why am I so into the Olympics this time around? One of the reasons mentioned above? The fact the Tigers suck? My mind was racing with scenarios. The only thing I could think of is the fact we finally have a good rival. Since the Soviet Union became Russia, international competition has been pretty lame. Who do you root against? Canada? I mean come on, nothing against my northern brothers, but they sent like 300+ people to the Olympics and I think have ZERO medals? The French? Way too easy. The Frenchies have not been important to anyone since Hitler sneezed and they surrendered in WW2. Cubans? Hard to hate people that make good cigars and drive cars from Happy Days. So, I guess thank god for the Chinese. All the talk about them taking over everything and the USA being on the way to being the runner up when it comes to a world power, I guess brought out the patriotism in me.

Is there more to it than what I rambled about above? Maybe. If so, I would love to hear on why you are glued to your seat watching sports you would NEVER watch if they were on on the Olympics. You know who you are!

Fantasy Football Experts: Johnny Detroit needs your help!

2008-08-13T15:45:00Z

I must admit, despite being around football and gambling since running parlay cards during Junior High, I have never played fantasy football. Watching people in these nerdy little leagues and acting like it was "cool" always annoyed me. Personally, I felt the fantasy football people were people who did not have the balls to focus the energy on handicapping and gamble like a grown up. Alas, over the past couple years I have watched friends check the "in game" stats for the leagues and talk about the trades and how much they win if X happens. My disdain for fantasy football slowly turned into interest and this year I am finally going to play and see what all the excitement is about.

The problem on my end is I have no clue at all on what to do. Is there magazines I should read? A way to rank the players? Systems or philosophy from the fantasy football experts on the forums? This Sunday I am hosting the Fantasy Nerd Herd Party at my house. I guess we will be going over what type of league we want to do and than draft the players. I think there will be 12 of us and the buy in is going to be either $250 or $500 depending what people agree on.

I am a step lower than a novice and looking for help so I do not end up dead last and have to be the "donkey" of the league. So in advance, thanks for letting me in your "Fantasy Football Nerd Club" and giving me the information needed to be the star of the draft this Sunday!

My PGA Championship Debacle (plus, a $25 Pregame Pros Coupon inside!)

2008-08-07T14:13:00Z

A few months back a contact of mine at ESPN said he would get me tickets to the PGA Championship for the whole weekend. Well, a few months go by and he does not mention it so I do not want to bust his balls sounding like a freeloader and finally concede and commit to my wife on going up north with her family. As my luck sometimes plays out, yesterday my friend calls and tells me how his friend from the Golf Channel is going to leave my tickets at "will call" for me and they are for the entire event. DOH.......

So obviously I am now locked into campfires and hearing the same childhood stories for the 10th time with the infamous "remember when" for the weekend rather than golf and endless cold beer. I love my wife, don't get me wrong, but it made me think how many other men out there have missed something like this due to a family commitment that you know the "old lady" would banish you to "blue balls" for a month if you did not attend.

The point of all this is to help Johnny Detroit feel better about missing the PGA Championship over the weekend. What major game or sporting event did you miss due to your wife giving you the hand on the hip and titled head look and saying "you better go to my sister's house damn it and not sit home to watch Florida vs. Florida State" without actually saying the words verbally. The forum poster that makes me chuckle the most and go "man, he had it worse than me" will get a $25 Pregame Pros coupon to use. Please note, I am leaving either late tonight or early in the morning and can't take care of you until Monday.

So, who is going to start it off?

College Football Picks: Go against team in 2008?

2008-07-30T17:49:00Z

Last season they went 12-1.
Won the Orange Bowl 24-21 as 3.5 point dogs over Virginia Tech.
Went 11-1 against the spread, cashing 92% of their games for bettors who made college football picks.
+21 on turnovers
Return 6 starters on offense and 9 on defense in 2008

AND, they have a head coach that can "out-eat" any other coach in college football.

The Kansas Jayhawks shocked the college football world by going undefeated before losing 28-36 against MIssouri to end the regular season. Lindy's has them in their top 15 and finishing at 9-3. The Sporting News has the Jayhawks sitting at #12 to start the season. College Football News has Kansas coming in as the #13 team in the nation. So what does all this mean to the sports bettor? Well, in my opinion, fade and fade away. Historically, teams that sneek up on the public AND the oddsmakers tend to come back to reality in terms of the pointspread the following season. Am I saying Kansas is going to lose all their games? Of course not. But in our world, overall record has no meaning in comparision to how a team does against the pointspread. If you took all the teams from the 2006 season who hit 75% or higher against the number, in 2007 the group average was just above 50%. There are always exceptions to the rule, but with the magazines and T.V. shows calling Kansas a Top 15 school and strong contender in the Big 12, do not expect the same line value as you were able to get last season.

Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but one game I look at is the September 12th game at South Florida. If Kansas can win there first two games in impressive fashion, it is more than likley that this will be their first loss. People will be calling Kansas a BCS contender despite the fact South Florida is going to very tough this year. Honestly, there even could be value in their opener as 38 point favorite against Florida International. Last season the Jayhawks were favored by 33.5 and won 55-3. Why is there value in a team getting 38 who was blasted by 52 the season before? Well, besides the fact Kansas is now getting the exposure from the powers that be and the line will relfect that, the Golden Panthers return 18 starters in 2008. So 18 starters are returning and Kansas is expected to be "not as good" this season but the line is 5 points higher? Sure, Kansas can blast them again, but (at least for me), value is more important than almost anything. I will toss out any handicapping, trends or expert opinion if there is value. To be successful in gambling, there is nothing more important than an edge that possibly has a positive expectation long term.

Could Kansas repeat and have a "sick" year against the number? Of course they could. That is why they call it gambling. This is why football is the "king of kings" when it comes to gambling. No other sport can you look at a full season schedule and pick out games to handicap in advance. This is the most exciting time of the year as you get ready for those opening season games.

God bless football.

Would you sell your soul for winning football picks?

2008-07-24T06:36:00Z

It is close to that time of the year when the "King of Kings" when it comes to gambling returns: Football. Basketball, baseball, hockey, etc all pale in comparision to betting on football. There is nothing like seeing the lines and spending more time coming up with picks than you probably spend with family and friends on the weekend. Some people call it a day and use a professional sports service. Other people spend hours combing all the forums on the net trying to find the latest hot handicapper. There is that group that reads about some can't lose system or trend and blind bet the card using the latest "can't lose system". Power ratings, line moves, anti-public, the list of angles people try to use are endless.

How much time do you spend trying to come up with winning NFL Football Picks? Personally, I spend little time coming up with the picks. I get stuff from private and offshore sources, so my time is spent on trying to filter everything down. Under the Inside Steam/Vegas Steam brand, using picks from offshore or private guys and putting a personal filter on the plays has done quite well:

2007 77-59 56.62%
2006 76-57 57.14%
2005 58-51 53.21%
2004 72-35 67.27%

But with anything else in life, it is what have you done for me lately. Whether it is clients or my own bank account. Nothing against the stat nerds, but the whole "bankroll" thing is overrated. I have not had to work in a long time. Unlike many of the so-called experts on some of the technical sites that probably barely grind out enough to pay rent, a big win to me means big fun. My wife puts up with ALOT of shit with what I do. So if I hit a major score, you think I am factoring in %'s and doing money management? Shit, I am buying her the latest COACH purse and spending enough at the Strip Club to pay day care for some stripper's kid! The last four years in football mean ZERO to my life and famliy right now. If I shit the bed this season, I can't pay my car payment by bragging I hit 67% in 2004. You think Dr. Bob's clients give a shit how good he was in the past after he buried them this season? How did their money management work out? Not saying you should not be responsible and not bet the rent money, but what is the purpose of having a monster week and not being to enjoy it a little?

So, I guess what I am asking is this:

Despite all the talk and claims about money management and bankrolls, how many people really follow that rule from week #1 to the Super Bowl? Do you really keep a "gambling kitty" on the side and never occasionally splurge with the win? For those who ever have hit a big score, would love to hear some of the stories on what you did with the money?

Regardless how you handle the money end of it, we should all be excited......Football is almost here fellas!