There are various theories when it comes to trying to beat the system and overcome the 4.5% hold that is the mathematical long term profit for the book to keep on every single dollar you wager laying -110 juice.
Some can spend countless hours studying weather, matchups, trends and stats to try and "out" handicap the oddsmakers.
Some will invest money in buying picks from professional sports services and entrust their bankroll in that the paid handicapper will put in the time and effort on their behalf in hopes of turning a profit.
Some will create their own power rating systems and compare their lines versus the actual number at the sportsbook and take advantage in any variance between the two in hopes the number they generated is more accurate to what will happen in the game.
Some will follow public betting trends using the various models around the net (including Sportsbook Spy here at Pregame.com).
Some will comb the forums trying to find the current flavor of the day who is hot or some "system" that is on a hot run.
Even though some will find success with the above methods, the fact is the sportsbooks are still giving out free drinks and the bookie in your neighborhood still drives a nicer car than you. In the end, is the system beatable? I would have to answer yes, but....... The "but" in my opinion is the most important thing in trying to win in sports gambling. This "but" is value and getting the best number possible on the wager you make. No matter how great you are at handicapping or how solid your system is, if you continually lay a bad number, it is nearly impossible to overcome the 1/2 point losses that will slowly build up over the course of the season. For example, let us look at the numbers pulled from almost a complete season of NBA action:
Home team +0.0: 675-668-27
Home team +1.0: 728-613-29
Home team +1/2: 702-642-26
You might ask, what in the hell does that even mean? What does it mean? VALUE. Even though many will debate this, the closing number is the sharpest number. The opening number that is released on a game will get beat up by the public, sharps and opinionated bookmakers before settling at the closing number. What you see above is how "home teams" did against the closing number. Betting for or against the home team is essentially a coin flip and with the -110 factored in will end up making the book money NO MATTER what side you take:
Blanket betting on the home team at $100.00 per game: +$67,500 / -$73,480 = -$5980
Blanket betting against the home team at $100.00 per game: -$74,250 / +$66,800 = = -$7450
The amazing part of the numbers above? The end result of whether you take the home or away team, you will lose around 4.5-5.0% of every dollar wagered. Scary ain't it how accurate the math is on sports for what the book will hold just like every other casino type game? Now for the next part of our experiment, what happens if we "beat" the closing number? For example, say a home favorite ends up -5.0 and you are able to get a -4.0.
Blanket betting the home team if you can get at least one point in your favor: 728-613-29 or at $100.00 per game would net $72,800 in winners and $67,430 in losers for a NET PROFIT of +5370. The real amazing part of beating the closing number is you take away the hold from the house and now have it in your favor. You have 1370 games at $100 each for a total of $137,000 in action. From there you take 4.5% and have $6165, but factoring out the "pushes" the number is just above $6000. Lastly, you need to realize you are getting paid +100 on wins rather than +110, so the end result is by beating the closing number you just entered bizarro world and placed the "edge" in the hands of the player rather than the sportsbook.
Want to take it a step further? In the exact same game, in the event the closing number favors the road team, if you can get the road team one point or better than the closing number you will end up 721-613-36 or +$72,100 and -$67,430 for a net profit of +4670. Mind you, this is at only $100 a game, so you can see how a betting syndicate betting $1000's and beating the books to the closing number can rake in the cash.
Now the real interesting part. Unlike some tout claiming to be on a 50-0 run and hitting 80% lifetime, I just showed you the "math" on how you can actually win in the NBA and what is the end winning percentage? Yep, 54%. A whopping 54%. Using the above system you can hit 54% and make more than you could working any 9-5 if you have the bankroll to bet real money.
Obviously being ahead of every closing number is nearly impossible. Of course you will have games move back and forth and trying to beat the move can get you stuck on a comeback game and when the number closes you might be on the wrong side. I am quite aware the numbers above are in a perfect scenario of timing and being on the right number not only before but after the move. The purpose of all of this is not to have you watching lines 24/7 to try and beat all the closing numbers but paint a picture and understand "value". This value can be found in having multuple outs or passing on a game where you might have missed the "right" number". If a professional betting syndicate puts an order out at +7.0 and the runner can only find a +6.0, they are not firing at the +6.0 just so they can get action in. The bottom line is it boils down to almost everything a casino offers, math. The edge for the house is hidden inside that number and if you can beat that number like a card counter can beat blackjack the house edge is now gone.
Once again, this exercise is about understanding the importance of the best number and not giving you a fool proof system to become a millionaire. As always, best of luck today.