Evan Altemus

HOW TO HANDICAP COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES

2009-12-18T08:15:00Z

HOW TO HANDICAP COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES

Evan Altemus

The average bettor looks at college football bowl games with the thoughts and images carried forward from the regular season. However this approach will not lead to a profitable bowl season most of the time. Just like handicapping other sports, there are keys to analyzing these games than just the records from the regular season and player match-ups, but the average bettor fails to realize this strategy. Let's take a look at what factors have the biggest impact on predicting college bowl games from a point spread perspective.

MOTIVATION - There are widely varying degrees of motivation for these bowl teams. Last year's bowl games are a perfect example of this fact. Missouri collapsed at the end of the 2008 season, despite having BCS bowl and potential national title aspirations. They ended up in the Alamo Bowl in a less than exciting match-up against Northwestern. As a result, the Tigers gave an unmotivated effort against the Wildcats as a double digit favorite and needed overtime to get the win. Another example of how motivation effects bowl games is the Music City Bowl where Vanderbilt faced Boston College as a 5 point underdog. The Commodores were playing in their first bowl game in a very long time, and in their backyard of Nashville, TN. Meanwhile, Boston College had lost the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech and missed out on an opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl. Consequently, Vanderbilt came out with a much more focused and motivated effort, which enabled them to get the outright win as an underdog.

LOCATION - Teams playing a bowl game close to their school have done very well over the years. Last season teams playing close to home went 9-6 against the spread in their bowl games. South Florida, Florida State, Rice, and USC covered rather easily while playing within a short distance to their school. However, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, and California failed to cover the spread despite playing close to home. Overall, the location of the game should be a part of handicapping bowls, but should not be relied upon as the main factor when deciding to make a wager. The location does have some impact but will not make up for a heavy favorite not bringing a strong effort or a better team dominating an opponent that they strongly outmatch.

CONFERENCES - One of the biggest things to consider when analyzing a bowl game is the conference each team is from. Many times one of the top teams from a lesser conference such as Conference USA, WAC, and MAC will face one of the last teams to get into a bowl from conferences like the SEC, Big 12, and PAC 10. In addition these teams from lesser conferences are sometimes favorites as just because of their better record. The public is also hesitant to back these teams with worse records because they have seen their opponents do well all season, not considering that their wins came against lesser quality competition. Some examples of this theory from last bowl season are Kentucky beating East Carolina and Arizona beating a ranked BYU team.

A SIMPLE WAY TO PICK WINNING FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

2009-11-15T16:46:00Z

A SIMPLE WAY TO PICK WINNING FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

Evan Altemus

Bettors are always looking for that sure win system to pick winning selections in football. Usually they'll find something that seems to work for a few games, then after two straight losers they'll jump off of it like a sinking ship. Many systems usually don't work long-term because oddsmakers will make adjustments for things and reduce the edge that sports bettors have. However, here is a theory, not a system that will produce more winners than losers and never go out of style.

Before I continue, the biggest key is to KNOW THE TEAM that you are about to bet on with this theory. By that I mean they should be a team that you generally follow from week to week. When I say follow, I mean you just watch an occasional game, see some highlights and just get a general feel for how their games turn out. You don't even have to analyze box scores in depth or know small details like how their starting right tackle matches up against opposing defensive lines.

Ok, so enough with the meaningless words, what is the theory? It is to know the role that a team is good and bad in. It seems simple but is difficult to follow because it requires the bettor to go against recent results in some cases. A perfect example of this theory is Notre Dame this year. They are a good team to fade as a favorite of almost any size and a good team to back as an underdog. The reason for this is that they play down to their opponent and allow them to hang around in games, even though the Irish arguably have more talent then their underdog opponents. In addition, Notre Dame has had a tendency of playing up to their competition, which has resulted in them getting point spread covers against USC and Pittsburgh. Basically there are teams that are great in roles such as a big underdog but bad in the role of a favorite expected to win.

I also have followed Navy very closely over the last seven years or so. They have been a great point spread team against the toughest teams on their schedule and have letdown performances, especially at home, as a big favorite, especially before big games. The Middies also routinely play games over the total against smaller conferences with pass happy offenses. They have had very high scoring games with teams like North Texas and SMU over the last few years.

The hardest part of this theory to follow it when others wouldn't. Generally speaking you will get good value because the public will looking to go the opposite of the team you are selecting. How many times have we seen teams as a big underdog string together a few good performances, only to fall flat on their face in their first game as a decent size home favorite? The Big 10, ACC, and Big 12 Conferences have seen numerous games have outcomes like that this season. We also see this happening a lot in the NFL. A team like Arizona has done great as an underdog, only to go home and fall flat on their face as a big favorite. Using this theory will help explain results that the betting public has a hard time explaining. Bottom line, betting with the tendencies of a team that you follow relatively closely is a great theory to produce long-term profits.

HOW TO BEAT LATE SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

2009-11-10T01:24:00Z

HOW TO BEAT LATE SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Evan Altemus

Lines are becoming sharper as the college football season progresses, so bettors must adapt and use a few different strategies. The books have fully adjusted from early season lines and have a much more accurate assessment of each team. However, there are some ways that I have beat the books the last few years, and the last few weeks in college football. Let's take a look at how to do it.

EMOTION - People continue to fail to realize that these are 18-22 year old kids playing college football. They are much more prone to emotional roller coasters than the average NFL player. Look to fade teams coming off of big wins. The worse the team is, the more of a letdown they are prone to have. A perfect example of this is Iowa State getting blown out by Texas A&M a week after winning outright at Nebraska.

FEAR - As the season progresses, some of these games have a huge impact on these programs. Anything from getting bowl eligible to a national title are on the line in the next few weeks for some of these teams. Numerous times we have seen title contending teams choke down the stretch and lose games to very weak opponents. Who can forget LSU losing to Arkansas and West Virginia losing to Pittsburgh a few years ago? Some of these teams that aren't used to playing in these pressure packed games may have trouble dealing with the adversity.

FAILURE TO ADJUST - Some teams that have struggled all season can slowly turn things around without the betting public realizing it. An example of this theory is Illinois. They have played much better the last three weeks, resulting in two straight dominant wins as an underdog. Meanwhile, the same can be said for teams that continue to win, yet fail to cover the point spread. Their strong record is appealing to bettors, which means oddsmakers have to keep them as inflated favorites. Examples of this theory are Alabama and Florida. The Crimson Tide are just 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games and were somewhat lucky to cover against LSU. The Gators are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as well.

Overall it is essential to adjust your strategy when handicapping late season college football. The overall situation and true value of each team must be looked at carefully.

COULD COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES BE FIXED

2009-11-04T00:57:00Z

When the average person loses a bet on a game a common response is that the game was fixed. However, the average experienced bettor knows that almost every college and professional game isn't intentionally influenced. The Toledo football point shaving scandal of a few years ago and former NBA referee Tim Donaghy's arrest and conviction of intentionally influencing games for gambling purposes are just two reasons why people wonder if some games are fixed. Even further speculation is fueled with endings like the one in the San Diego/Pittsburgh NFL regular season game last year, where Troy Polamalu's fumble return for a touchdown was falsely overturned. That wrong call led to one of the most infamous endings to a football game, especially from a sports bettor's perspective.

To properly answer my question posed in the title, the answer is no, almost every college football game is not fixed. So what is the point of this article? Several undefeated teams have a lot on the line over these next few weeks, and the conferences that they are in could also benefit greatly from one of their teams going undefeated. Teams like Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State are all ranked high in the BCS, much higher than they are used to being at this point in the season.

Taking that into consideration, it was not surprising to see the horrible officiating in the Indiana/Iowa game on Saturday. The Big 10 officials, both on the field and in the replay booth, made several clear and obvious calls favoring Iowa, even though there was concrete video evidence supporting the call that would favor Indiana. Early in the game, Indiana coach Bill Lynch challenged a ruling on the field that his running back was short on a 3^rd down run. Video replay showed that he had obviously gained the first down, yet the replay official said the spot of the ball was correct. Another questionable call was the helmet to helmet hit called on an Indiana defender as he tackled an Iowa player toward the sidelines. It was obvious that the Indiana defender used his shoulder to make the hit. However, the biggest blown call was when a Hoosier touchdown pass was called incomplete by the replay booth, even though the catch was ruled a touchdown on the field and no video replays showed that the player had dropped the pass. Usually referees are notorious for saying that there was no overwhelming evidence that supported a change to the ruling on the field. However, in that case the replay official supposedly saw some kind of concrete evidence to clearly overturn the call, even though both commentators assumed the call on the field would stand.

A few other games this past Saturday had questionable calls made which favored undefeated teams. Cincinnati was not called for an ineligible receiver downfield on their fake field goal, which resulted in a touchdown pass. It was fairly obvious that several members of the offensive line were well past the line of scrimmage, yet no call was made. In addition, Texas seemed to benefit from some generous calls in their road game against Oklahoma State.

Overall, I do not think that referees are directly told by conference officials to make calls favoring one team, but I think it's understood by them that a conference team getting to a big time BCS bowl and/or staying undefeated could directly or indirectly affect them in some way. One way of influencing referees is if one team is known to be a passing offense, then conference officials could tell the officiating crew to pay particular attention to pass interference penalties in the game. I'm sure the referees understand what a subtle hint like that means. I believe that the officiating crews in a few of this past Saturday's college football games, especially the Indiana/Iowa game, purposefully gave certain teams preferential treatment with their calls.

HUGE COLLEGE FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING KEY

2009-10-28T01:17:00Z

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 MOTIVATIONAL ANGLES

Evan Altemus

One of the most under used keys in college football handicapping is motivational angles. Let down, look ahead, and bounce back games are some of the most profitable situations year after year in college football, yet most people don't look at them, especially with the less popular teams. Mediocre to below average BCS conference teams are very capable of having huge swings in performance. These teams have the talent capable of either winning a game in a blowout or getting blown out themselves against teams with a similar talent level. Here are some of the potential look ahead and letdown spots in this week's college football action.

Iowa State - The Cyclones are coming off of what is arguably their best performance in several years with their road at Nebraska. It's going to be interesting to see if they bring a strong effort this week. They are at least a touchdown underdog at Texas A&M, so that number might be strong enough for them to manage.

TCU - They are coming off of an emotional blowout road win at BYU, and now some people are saying that this team is destined to head to a BCS bowl game. However, the Horned Frogs have been installed as a five touchdown home favorite to UNLV, who is coming off of a good win at New Mexico. However, the Rebels might just be bad enough to get crushed with a half hearted effort by TCU.

Iowa / Michigan State - These teams had what was probably the most exciting ending to any game last week. The game was low scoring until the 4^th quarter, when each team starting matching each other score for score. However, Iowa got a touchdown pass as the game expired to get the win. It is very likely that both of these teams will come out flat this week. However, they get to face two of the weaker Big 10 teams in Minnesota and Indiana, so the letdown spot might not matter.

Ohio State / Penn State - These two teams will face each other next week in one of the biggest games in the Big 10 this season. Each team has games against cupcake teams this week though, with Ohio State facing New Mexico State and Penn State facing Northwestern on the road. The Nittany Lions are also coming off of a big road win at Michigan last week, so this week is a tough sandwich spot for them. However, Northwestern is nowhere near the talent and skill level of Penn State, so the letdown spot might not even matter.

A SUDDEN NFL TREND REVERSAL???

2009-10-10T15:32:00Z

One of the best ways to profit from sports betting is to recognize a reversal of a trend before the betting public and sportsbooks recognize it. However, doing that is one of the hardest things to do in handicapping. It is very hard to predict exactly when a team will all of a sudden stop winning or when the oddsmakers will finally catch up to a team's proper value. Nevertheless, I feel that we may start to see a change in one trend this week in the NFL.

The average Joe better has enjoyed great success in the opening month of the NFL, as several big favorites have routinely covered the spread against the worst teams in the NFL. Teams like Kansas City, St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Detroit all are at best 1-3 against the spread this season, despite being big underdogs in almost all of their games. These teams have just been awful on both sides of the ball, which has led to even average teams blowing them out with relative ease and covering point spreads. Oakland and St. Louis are virtually unbackable because of their horrible offense and struggling defense. I just can't trust either offense to put enough points up to cover even the largest of point spreads. However, just how many wins by the public will it take for oddsmakers to adjust enough to the true level of these teams?

In my opinion, sportsbooks are finally to starting to catch up to the betting public's success in betting against the worst team in the NFL. This week Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay are all double digit underdogs, with the Buccaneers and Raiders being over two touchdown dogs! While I still won't back these teams until they show improvement, I feel that they may start to play better and/or cover these inflated point spreads. However, it will be hard to predict which games they will cover. Why is this? Many of their point spread covers will be from scores that cannot be predicated, such as kick returns and turnovers returned for touchdowns. All it takes is a fluke score or two to give a two touchdown underdog a solid chance to cover in the NFL.

Overall I recommend staying away from point spreads involving the worst teams in the NFL, until they have shown some kind of improvement. Right now these teams are bad enough to lose by more than two touchdowns, but it will be hard to tell exactly when these teams, if any, will finally get better this season.

CAL / OREGON FREE SELECTION AND PROFILE

2009-09-25T20:42:00Z

This game has been one of the biggest rivalries in college football over the last few years. As a result, each team brings their best effort into this game and is one thing that must be considered. These emotional rivalry games have a way of leveling the playing field sometimes, even though one team may come into the game with a seemingly significant advantage.

With these types of games, I like to look at the series history because the quality of athletes usually stays the same over the years at schools, unless a significant change is brought on, good or bad, by a new coach. First thing I noticed is that the home team has won outright in five of the last six meetings between these two teams. However, Cal has won four out of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a win at Oregon in 2007. Also, the Ducks haven't had a convincing win over the Bears since 2001, as their 2005 win came in overtime. Another trend I noticed is that this meeting has gone under the total in six of the last eight meetings, including last year's 26-16 win by the Bears.

Next, I looked at the current state of each team heading into this game. California has looked good so far this season, but they really haven't been tested. Last week's win at Minnesota was somewhat of a quality win, but they allowed the Golden Gophers to keep the game tied until the 4^th quarter. The Bears did suffer a bad injury in that game, as their star receiver, Nyan Boateng, will be out for several weeks with a foot injury. He really opened the offense and was a favorite target of Kevin Riley. Meanwhile, Oregon comes in having played much stiffer competition, with a road game at Boise State and home games against Purdue and Utah. However, the Ducks offense looked absolutely anemic against a Boise State defense that didn't look particularly impressive last week at Fresno State. They will also severely miss star running game LeGarrette Blount for the rest of the season. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has not looked either, completing only 45% of his passes with two interceptions. The close home win by Oregon over Purdue is much more telling to me than the loss at Boise State. The Ducks should have dominated the Boilermakers in that game, as they had all of the motivation of rebounding from the Boise State game, as well as playing their first home game of the season. However, Purdue, not a particularly good team, kept the game close down to the wire. That outcome is very telling about Oregon.

Overall I would love to have a reason to take Oregon with the points. However, they have not looked good so far this season, and they have a first year head coach. The Ducks must be able to run the ball in order have success on offense, but California has a very good rush defense, yielding only 62 yards per game on the ground. I expect Oregon's defense to play very motivated as well though, and the injury to Boateng will severely impact the Cal offense. I feel that this total is inflated based on the misconception that both teams have explosive offenses. However, I expect this game to be fiercely contested and lower scoring than people think. My recommendation is to take a two unit play on the under.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 KEYS

2009-09-22T23:58:00Z

Each week the college football schedule looks overwhelming considering the amount of plays available to bet on each week. One of the best ways to breakdown the games are to organize the card into different categories. Home underdogs are usually a good place to start, so let's take a look which teams playing at home are getting points this week.

South Carolina +3 - The Gamecocks have been playing better, and Ole Miss came into this season rated highly based on last year's results.

Nevada +7.5 - This game is very interesting, as the Wolfpack have really struggled this year and there's not a better way to rebound than to beat a good BCS conference team in a home nationally televised primetime game. However, this team really looked outclassed against Notre Dame and even Colorado State.

Mississippi State +12.5 - Some sharp bettors jumped all over Mississippi State +14 early in the week which drove this line down. If want to bet the Bulldogs against LSU then you should probably wait until kickoff. New head coach Dan Mullen seems to have this team playing much better in previous years, especially on offense.

Wyoming +5 - The Cowboys played Texas very well at home two weeks ago, while UNLV is coming off of a close home win against Hawaii. I'm not sure if I would trust this soft Rebels team to cover a spread of more than a field goal in Laramie, especially in a place that has traditionally been tough for visitors.

Virginia Tech +3 - This spread is a ridiculous over adjustment based on the results of the last few weeks. The Hokies never win pretty, especially not last week over Nebraska. Meanwhile, everyone saw Miami win two nationally televised games against Florida State and Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes are still a young team, and this will be their toughest road test so far this year.

Bowling Green +16.5 - The Falcons are getting a great deal of points here against a tough Boise State team. This is their second straight road game, as they are coming off of a blowout road win at Fresno State. The Broncos will also be without their best running back for this game due to injury. Bowling Green can put points on the board, and MAC teams have traditionally really got up for these home games against better non-conference teams. Remember what happened just a few weeks ago between Colorado and Toledo?

Purdue +7 - Notre Dame is in somewhat of a tough spot here, as they are coming off of two consecutive physically and emotionally draining games against Michigan and Michigan State. However, last week's game could be costly, as they lost their star receiver Michael Floyd for the year with a broken collarbone. In addition, Jimmy Clausen suffered a foot injury, and he was clearly not playing as well in the 2^nd half as a result.

Kentucky +21.5 - This game is an obvious letdown spot for Florida, as they are coming off of last week's emotionally draining win against Tennessee. Urban Meyer is still talking about last week's game in the media this week. This is a great spot to go against Florida, as they are going on the road to supposedly lowly Kentucky while several Gators are dealing with flu symptoms. The Wildcats are also in a great revenge situation here after getting absolutely destroyed by Florida last year.

Another one of the biggest things I look for is big games from the previous week as well as in the next week as potential look ahead spots for some teams. Some games that had a great deal of emotion from last week for one or both teams are:

Georgia Tech/Miami, Louisville/Kentucky, Northern Illinois/Purdue, Tennessee/Florida, Nebraska/Virginia Tech, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USC/Washington, and Texas Tech/Texas.

Also some potential look ahead games for next week are LSU/Georgia, Michigan/Michigan State, Oklahoma/Miami, Washington/Notre Dame, USC/California.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL LOOK AHEAD SPOTS AND LETDOWNS (WEEK 3)

2009-09-16T18:44:00Z

I am not too far removed from the college days, so I know some of the emotions that many of these young athletes are going through. Playing in Division I athletics myself gave me even more insight into the ups and downs that these football players go through. Consequently, I feel that looking for these spots where one team is going to be significantly up or down is critical to having success in handicapping college football. Let's take a look at which games from last week and which games looming could possibly have an effect on this week's games.

September 12^th - USC at Ohio State. There is no doubt that the biggest game of last week was the primetime match-up between the Trojans and the Buckeyes. USC has traditionally been dominant in these early season featured non-conference games, only to struggle in some early season conference games. However, the media has been talking about a possible letdown this week, so the Trojans might actually focus on playing against their old coaches Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt when they face Washington this weekend. Ohio State has dropped another game to a big time program, despite leading late in the 4^th quarter. It will be interesting to see if their players bounce back and hammer a Toledo team that will definitely be up for the Buckeyes.

September 12^th - Notre Dame at Michigan. The young Wolverines got a huge win on Saturday over Notre Dame, so it will be interesting to see if they bring a strong effort this week against Eastern Michigan. The Eagles were horrible against Army and didn't look much better in the 1^st half last week against Northwestern, so Michigan should have no problem handling them if they bring a strong effort. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how Notre Dame rebounds after a demoralizing loss last week at Michigan in a game that they should have won and were leading with just a few minutes left.

September 12^th - Hawaii at Washington State. This game is well off the radar of most college football enthusiasts, but there is an important to take from it. Hawaii is in the middle of a tough road trip, as they are staying on the mainland this week and until after their September 30^th game at Louisiana Tech. Hawaii's coach is not letting their players gamble or take part in the Las Vegas lifestyle this week, as they prepare to face UNLV this weekend. It will be interesting to see if the extended time away from home affects the Warriors.

September 26^th - California at Oregon. This game is one of the most important for each of these teams, so it will be interesting to see how much they get up for their games this week. Oregon's Chip Kelly cannot afford to have his team play poorly again against a team from a supposed weaker conference. This week they have a difficult challenge against last year's BCS Cinderella team, Utah. California also has a tough task of traveling to Minnesota to play an early start (12pm EST) game. The Bears should dominate the Gophers if they bring a good effort to Minnesota's new stadium.

FREE USC/OHIO STATE ANALYSIS AND PREMIUM SELECTION

2009-09-12T14:00:00Z

Everyone loves to make a big wager in the biggest game on a Saturday of college football, even though there is much better value with lesser publicized games. However, sometimes these featured primetime games do have a selection worthy of making a big wager on. Tonight's USC/Ohio State game isn't one of them in my opinion. I will give my analysis on tonight's game, and then give a free premium selection on what I feel is the best play.

The first thing that has to be considered is the dominance that Pete Carroll's teams have had in these early season non-conference games, as well as bowl games against other non-conference teams. His teams have shown the ability to fly across the country and blowout several teams, most recently Virginia, Nebraska, and Arkansas. In fact over the last five seasons, USC's against the spread record is 17-5 in games against non-conference opponents, including several road blowouts. That mark is even more staggering considering that two of those ATS losses came in a home blowout of Idaho and a close win over Fresno State in a game that they didn't take seriously.

The second thing to consider is the line movement and value. USC was initially put out as a 3 point favorite. However, they had a huge blowout win over San Jose State last week, while Ohio State got a close win over Navy that was nationally televised. Those games don't tell the complete story though. San Jose State's coach Dick Tomey didn't put much emphasis in the game in the 2^nd half, as he kept sending back-ups in to get playing time against the Trojans. Meanwhile, Ohio State was ready to get a three touchdown lead on Navy before they couldn't convert a 4^th down deep in Navy territory. In addition, I'm pretty sure that Jim Tressel and his coaching staff spent the entire off-season game planning for USC, not Navy. Navy's offense is very tough to play against if the proper preparation isn't put in, as Ohio State doesn't have experience against teams with an option offense. If you are a value bettor, then you would have already jumped all over Ohio State at 7.5 points because of the significant line movement based on last week's results.

These two teams played last year with USC getting a 35-3 blowout win at home, and they even put the game on cruise control in the 2^nd half. They could have scored more than 35 points if they wanted to. The only main difference between that offense and this one is freshman quarterback Matt Barkley. Mark Sanchez was definitely a better overall quarterback last year than Barkley is right now. In addition, he has to travel across the country and play his first road game in one of the most hostile environments in college football. However, I am pretty certain that Pete Carroll will put him in situations that will ease him into the game and allow him to build confidence. Barkley also has the luxury of playing behind the best offensive line in college football, while also having the best running back group in the nation as well. Ohio State's defensive line struggled in the trenches last week against Navy, and preparation or not, that's a big concern here because they should have dominated last week because of the massive size and strength advantage.

The biggest x-factor for Ohio State is Terrelle Pryor. He is a winner and a difference maker. Ohio State's offense was much difference last year against USC once Pryor entered the game. He also showed his ability to make things happen in his comeback against Texas last season. Pryor drastically improves everyone around him because of his play making abilities. USC's defense is very inexperienced after losing several of the best players in college football on that side of the ball. I expect this game to be very back and forth, so Ohio State will be looking to make big plays throughout.

Ok, now time for my selection in this game. I will not bet against USC and Pete Carroll in any non-conference game, especially given how Ohio State has performed against other top caliber BCS teams over the last few years. LSU, Ohio State, Florida, and Texas all showed that they just have superior athletes and speed to the Buckeyes. However, the line movement here is too much, especially for a freshman quarterback playing his first road game and a defense that lost several key starters from a season ago. Since I think that this game could go back and forth or be a USC blowout, my selection is OVER 45.5 POINTS for a 2 UNIT SELECTION. I probably would have released this play for sale as a premium selection if the total was 44 points or less. However, I recommend buying a � point to get the total at 45 because that number is key for totals. The game can end 24-21 for example and you would get a push instead of a loss. Hope this analysis helps everyone and enjoy the game tonight; it should be a good one.

THE BIGGEST BETTORS ARE ON THESE COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES

2009-09-03T16:35:00Z

This article is going to be a quick summary of what some very big bettors are on this weekend in college football. Some of the line value may be gone, as these guys that I'm talking about got down on some of these games a few months ago when lines were released. I won't talk about games that I have selections on, so take it for what you will. But I will state which games that I made personal wagers on, even though they are not premium selections that I am releasing. I wager a considerable amount on games, but these guys are in another planet. So their opinions are worth considering. I will also discuss games in which there was strong disagreement between the group.

Baylor at Wake Forest - A few of the sharpest guys liked Wake Forest as a favorite of less than 3 points, including myself. I was going to release it as a premium selection, but then decided against it because the Demon Deacons lost a lot of talent on defense, as well as their under-rated kicker Sam Swank. Other people thought that Baylor is going to be an over-rated public team this season based on quarterback Robert Griffin. I somewhat agree. The value is on Wake Forest here no doubt. I took Wake Forest as a small personal wager at -2.

New Mexico at Texas A&M - A couple of bettors absolutely loved Texas A&M in this game. They see coach Mike Sherman wanting to hammer a New Mexico team that almost beat them last year. They also want to fade New Mexico this season because of the coaching change and a lack of offensive production returning. I have no personal wager on the game.

San Diego State at UCLA - Several bettors loved UCLA in this game. One suggestion was made that Brady Hoke wanted to cash in on his Ball State team last year and land a job that he could retire from. I think it's an interesting perspective and wonder if he will bring a maximum effort in this job. Both starting cornerbacks were kicked off the team as well. Now this meeting took place well before the news of the wildfires. The fires and a question of the Bruins offense covering a large number against anyone kept me away from releasing it as a premium selection. San Diego State is seemingly poised to have a horrible year, but they do return 14 players. The Bruins offensive line is just in too much flux for me to tell other people to take them as a double digit favorite. I want to see how the inexperience offense performs. I took the Bruins as a small personal selection.

Connecticut at Ohio - Opinions were all over the place in this game. Everyone had their own view on this game. Some people were high on Ohio, but then others thought that the Bobcats were a below average team in the MAC that would get destroyed by out of conference teams. One person had a very strong play on the under, and I think that is the best way to go in this game. Connecticut lost so many players to the NFL Draft last year, and they don't have much depth to replace that talent. They will be affected by it no doubt. I haven't but will make a small personal wager on the under in this game.

Central Michigan at Arizona - This game is very intriguing to me. There were a few very strong opinions on the under in this game, as well as Arizona in the 2^nd half because of the heat and travel effects on the Chippewas. I think that Arizona is going to be a great point spread team this season because of being under the radar. Last year they were a glamour team because of a supposedly potent offense. However, they return 13 starters from last year, including three offensive linemen and five out of seven starters on the defensive front seven. This team had a very good defense last year, and they should be even better this season. I am also obviously high on Central Michigan because they have starting quarterback Dan LeFevour back, as well as 15 other starters. This game is a complete pass for me, as I don't see any strong edges to take advantage of.

LSU at Washington - A few people liked Washington in this spot. I agree that the Huskies will be a very good point spread team this season because of the new coaching regime, good value, and most importantly they have their star quarterback, Jake Locker, back from injury. It was discussed that many people forget that the Huskies were poised to possibly beat BYU in the second game last season before the penalty and missed extra point. Locker missed almost the entire season, and the team didn't have any offensive production after his injury. New coaches Sarkisian and Holt should bring an immediate impact. Other reasons for backing the Huskies here is that LSU has to travel across the country and play at 10:30pm EST. In addition, they will have a mostly inexperienced quarterback starting. I actually have a small personal wager on LSU because I don't think the late start will affect the Tigers. I'm not far removed from the college days, and I can tell you most of these kids don't start to get ready to party at night until well after 10:30pm EST. It shouldn't matter, and I think the talent difference is just so great between these teams, although the number is very high.

North Texas at Ball State - A few people were very high on North Texas in this game, as they feel that this will be the game that bettors look back on and kick themselves for not taking the Mean Green to win outright. There is no way that I can back Ball State in this spot after losing so much talent, as well as getting a new head coach. Brady Hoke knew that it was now or never to cash in on a winning team last year, as this year's team isn't expected to be very good. North Texas' head coach Todd Dodge is under tremendous pressure to win this year as well. However, I could see Ball State blowing them out by just handing the ball off and using a good running game to win in a rout. I drank the kool-aid though and made a small personal wager on North Texas with the points. However, I couldn't release them as a premium selection because I don't fully trust North Texas' defense to show up and finally stop someone. In addition, the Mean Green will be breaking in new freshman quarterback, and the coach's son, Riley Dodge.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL QUICK HITTERS - SEPT 2ND

2009-09-02T19:40:00Z

Knowing several of the small stories is critical to having success in the first week of college football. Also, these keys may prevent potential pitfalls that a bettor otherwise may not know about. Let's take a look at some of the recent news stories that may have an impact on a team you are looking to back/fade in the next few weeks.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS - The Blue Devils have had to deal with a strain of the H1N1 flu virus during their training camp. At least half of their players were impacted by it and treated during camp. It has affected some of what second year coach David Cutcliffe has wanted to do, but it shouldn't have a significant impact on their season. Luckily they have a weak opening schedule to start the season.

IOWA HAWKEYES - Iowa's starting running back Jewel Hampton is expected to miss the entire season after suffering a knee injury. Hampton's injury is significant, as he was expected to be a good replacement for All-American running back Shonn Greene. The Hawkeyes have a good offensive line, but they lack depth at the running back position. Their offense is predicated on running the ball, so this injury is a significant problem.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - Alabama has two major issues that they have had to deal with. First, the statuses of star wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Mark Ingram are still unknown for the start of the season, as they face a possible four game suspension for a trip in the off-season. Those two players are very important to the Tide offense. In addition, several players have dealt with a strain of the swine flu, although it's not expected to have a significant impact for their first game of the season against Virginia Tech. They have been trying to quarantine affected players as much as possible.

USC TROJANS - Freshman Matt Barkley has been named the starter after having a good camp, as well as the injury to Aaron Corp. Barkley hasn't played like a freshman in camp so far, as he has impressed coaches/teammates with his football intelligence. He will be aided by having one of the best offensive linemen/running backs in the country around him. Look for head coach Pete Carroll to put him in situations that will enable him to succeed. However, USC has been dealing with several injuries in camp, including to starting wide receiver Ronald Johnson, who broke his collarbone. Carroll was very upset about the injury, much more so than normal.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES - Much has been made about the violation allegations regarding practice time with Michigan's football team. It will be interesting to see if this issue brings the team together or causes them to be distracted. Sharp bettors seem to think it will bring them together because the line on Michigan creeped up slightly for their opener against Western Michigan after the incident was reported.

BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES - The Eagles have a huge problem at the quarterback position this season after returning starter Dominique Davis decided to transfer after being suspended for academic reasons. They will have to rely on a quarterback who has no previous snaps with their offense heading into this year. Luckily they have two easy games to start the season until their ACC opener with Clemson on September 19^th. However, their offense really struggled last year, so it's going to be interesting to see where the points are going to come from this season.

N.C. STATE WOLFPACK - N.C. State seems like they are going to have a good season, as they return several starters on both sides of the ball. However, they will be without their best defensive player, line backer Nate Irving, after his car accident this summer. He was an important part of their defense last season and will be missed this year. Starting quarterback Russell Wilson must stay healthy and be effective in order for this team to make it back to a bowl game.

THE SQUARE SHARP THEORY

2009-08-27T20:16:00Z

A few weeks ago I had a chance to sit in on a meeting of some of the sharpest sports bettors/handicappers in the world. I'm not afraid to admit when someone is a better bettor than me, so I'll admit that these guys knew more than I did when it comes to actually betting on sports. However, there is a difference between betting and handicapping, and I felt like I wasn't too far behind these guys when it comes to handicapping skill. Anyway, one of the things that was discussed and brought up several times was the idea of the square sharp. I'm going to discuss this theory and maybe it might help some people to improve their handicapping by making an accurate self-assessment of their capping ability.

In order to not plagiarize, I will give my definition of what a square and sharp bettor is. In my opinion, a square bettor is the average guy who puts down $20 on five team teasers that consist mainly of large favorites. He also mainly bets favorites either with the spread or moneyline, while also only betting totals to go over. A sharp bettor meanwhile will research their selections immensely and have concrete reasons for their plays. Some of them make only a few bets, while others might make close to a hundred bets or more per week. These guys only bet parlays when the side and total are related in a game, and they only do teasers when the lines are the most accurate and are getting the best value for their teaser, such as with NFL sides. However, with explosion of the internet and sports information sites, the average bettor is becoming "sharper". This trend has led to a huge group of what why I think are square sharps.

First of all I think at least 90% of the so-called pro handicappers are what I call square sharps. I might have just made some more enemies with that statement, but it's the truth and they know it. I feel that I am a full fledged square sharp when it comes to baseball handicapping, maybe even worse. I am still somewhat of a square sharp when it comes to basketball but am getting better. However, I feel that I am an actual sharp when it comes to pro and college football betting/handicapping. My results in various sports from last season seem to prove my thinking as well.

So what exactly is a square sharp? The average "wise guy" or supposedly "sharp handicapper" will always look to back home underdogs, teams with revenge angles, and letdown situations. These guys are also the pro handicappers who claim they have a 25-4 ATS play, or a play backed by an 80% long-term winning rate, etc. However, the lines are set to beat the wise guys and sharp bettors now, instead of the average $20, 5 team parlay bettor. The sportsbooks know that the average bettor will find a way to lose the money in their accounts, so they don't even bother with them. Oddsmakers already account for all of the old trends that supposedly sharp handicappers think about; therefore the value is diminished using them. There are three differences between a square sharp and an actual sharp handicapper. The first difference is the overall understanding of how much each factor/player truly affects the point spread and totals. The second difference is the amount of work put into researching games, and the third difference is the depth of knowledge of each team. I'll briefly discuss what I mean by all three of the above theories.

First let's take the Washington Redskins as an example. The truly sharp bettor knows that a horrible injury for that team would be to lose their starting left tackle Chris Samuels. He is an absolute key to that team, and it showed with the Redskins last year what happens to a team when their offensive line gets banged up and doesn't have depth. Second, the true sharp handicapper will not only look at box scores, stats, and scores from previous games. They will look at drive charts, watch replays of games in-depth, sacks, turnovers, injuries, quotes/injuries from practices, etc. Essentially they are trying to figure out what the true "power rating" of each team and compare it to the oddsmakers power rating, or what people refer to as a spread. Finally, all of the extra studying and researching allows truly sharp bettors to have a better overall understanding of each team. One example of this idea would be Georgia Tech from last year. Sharp handicappers know that the key to stopping their option offense is a quick and athletic defensive line, which is what North Carolina had last year. Consequently, they were able to shut down the Yellow Jackets. Essentially truly sharp handicappers conduct more research; know what to look for, and have a much more accurate assessment of each team and how certain variables will affect them.

Making an honest self-assessment of where you are as a handicapper will help you to develop and improve over time. It is not bad to be a square sharp handicapper because it means you are close to becoming a true sharp. However, there must be an understanding of what areas you are weak in and what is causing your losses. Very few people can claim that they are actual sharp handicappers, so the process to get there is long but is worth it in the end. My best recommendation is to keep track of your results using a spreadsheet and really look at your selections to see where you were right and wrong in your thinking, win or lose. However, let me just say that there is a difference between handicapping and betting. This idea will be looked at in an article to be released at a later date.

NFL QUICK HITTERS - AUGUST 23RD

2009-08-23T03:56:00Z

NFL PRESEASON QUICK HITTERS - AUGUST 23^RD

Evan Altemus

The average football fan and bettor doesn't pay attention to the preseason, as they feel that these so-called meaningless games have no bearing on the outcome of regular season games. However, they are dead wrong, as there are things to be taken from most preseason games. Here are some quick pieces of information that I have noticed up through Saturday August 22^nd.

DALLAS COWBOYS - Their first team offense really looked good against Tennessee and should be ready to come out firing at the start of the regular season. They are very talented and deep at the running back position. Remember, they didn't have the services of potential star running back Felix Jones for a good portion of last season. The question is will this team stay motivated and focused throughout the season.

DENVER BRONCOS - Everyone saw or heard about how bad Kyle Orton looked in week one of the preseason, but he looked vastly better in week two. Remember he wasn't all that bad for Chicago last year, and Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind. Everyone seems to want to fade them this year, but they might be better than most people think. They have a very talented offensive line, which should make things easier for Orton and the running game.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS - I've been unlucky enough to watch both of Washington's preseason games. Needless to say their 1^st string offense has been horrible. Granted they played against Baltimore and Pittsburgh's tough defenses, but still. Their defense looks very strong again this year, and Brian Orakpo is going to be a force this season. Look to take the Redskins under the total as much as possible early this season.

OAKLAND RAIDERS / TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Don't be fooled by these team's offensive performances in the preseason. They have good depth at quarterback, which has allowed for them to put up points against 2^nd and 3^rd string defenses. However, both teams have issues at the starting quarterback position. I expect Jeff Garcia to see some action as the starting quarterback at some point in the regular season.

ATLANTA FALCONS / GREEN BAY PACKERS - Both of these team's starting offenses have been excellent in the preseason. I look for big seasons from Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. These teams are going to be great point spread selections until the betting marketplace fully catches up to their true rating, as they are being under-rated in the NFC.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - Everyone is picking Philadelphia as their "dark horse" team this season. However, they were in the NFC Championship game last year, so it's ridiculous to label them as a dark horse. The Eagles did add some great players to their offense, such as Jason Peters, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin, but they are dealing with several injuries, including four out of five starting offensive linemen banged up. I could see the Eagles not meeting expectations this year if their offensive line doesn't get enough reps together. Philadelphia has been dealing with injuries for the last few seasons, and it seems like they might have the same problem this year. Look for them to struggle if they can't keep their key players healthy.

A UNIQUE AND WINNING APPROACH TO THE NFL PRESEASON

2009-08-10T17:01:00Z

The internet is flooded with articles about why you should bet on the NFL preseason and how to do it successfully. Most of them state the same generic stuff like look at the quarterback rotations of each team, bet on first year head coaches, and take the under in the first week of the preseason. However, blindly following all of those ideas last year would have left you with a winning percentage below 50% and a lower bankroll. Were last year's results just an anomaly? If the listed strategies truly do not work, then how do you make a profit in the preseason? Let's answer these two questions and talk about some other NFL preseason ideas and strategies.

Last preseason teams with legitimate quarterback competitions were around 50% against the spread. This trend goes against what the average handicapper will tell you should happen, as usually active competitions lead to more aggressive play calling and more motivated quarterbacks. Meanwhile, first year coaches last year also went about 50% against the spread, defying what the experts would expect. Furthermore, the under went 7-9 against the spread in week 1 of the preseason, including the Hall of Fame Game. In my opinion, there is one main reason for these rare outcomes. With the increase in sports wagering and the love of the betting public in wagering on football, oddsmakers have been increasingly forced to put out sharper lines in these NFL exhibition games. As a result, they accounted for these factors much more so than in previous years and over adjusted the lines as a result. So if the oddsmakers are setting sharper lines by accounting for previous trends, then how is it possible to make a profit in the preseason?

First and foremost, the most important thing I am going to use in my handicapping are quotes from the head coach. These quotes in interviews and press conferences are so critical to making any kind of selection in the preseason. However, there is so much more to using these quotes than just deciding if the team is going to play hard or not. For example, if a coach says that he wants to work on the passing game, even though his quarterback rotation is horrible, they will probably not have success. Also, if a coach says he wants to focus on running the ball or defensive packages, then the under would be worth a look. Each preseason game requires a very unique approach from any other game in any other sport. It is absolutely essential to try and figure out what each head coach's goals are heading into the game. If you are able to figure out what these factors are with confidence, then decide if they are strong enough to make a selection. For example, one coach might state publicly that he wants his team to play well, but if that team is around a six or seven point favorite, then the play is probably not worth taking. However, that team might be worth a look if they are a small favorite or an underdog.

Coaches comments are the majority of what I base my selections on the NFL preseason, but there are a few other factors that are worth taking a look at. These factors include scheduling situations, motivational factors, injuries, quarterback rotations, value, as well as anything else that might come along. An example of a scheduling situation was last year when Dallas when straight to Denver, staying on the road, instead of going back home after their preseason week one game at San Diego. Consequently, the Cowboys lost against the spread and straight up at Denver in week two. Numerous injuries can also be a key to use. A coach will be reluctant to play his better players as long if he's already dealing with injuries. Selections on large underdogs, as well as the over on a small total and the under on a large total are worth taking a look at.

No matter how well you think you have a preseason game nailed down, these exhibition games always have more unpredictability to them than the average regular season game. I will never recommend someone making a large selection on a preseason game, and I think the best strategy is to make a select number of small to average size plays in these exhibition games.

Overall, the NFL preseason can be profitable if handicapped correctly. However, using the typically strategies that the average professional handicapper will talk about isn't going to allow for a very profitable preseason, as the lines makers fully incorporate them into making the lines. The bottom line is to figure out what the coaches want to do, then decide if a selection is worth taking after accounting for some of the other factors listed above.