In the past few years baseball has been my weakest sport out of all. In fact, I have had winning seasons in almost every season in pro/college football and basketball over the last three years but was just able to break even in baseball last year. However, I feel that my performance was a major breakthrough because it was the third straight year in baseball that I have shown an improvement in total units at season end. I am also very confident about this season, as I have already started off this baseball season winning eight of eleven selections. This article will discuss most of the things I look at when handicapping the most popular summer sport.
INTIAL SCAN - The first part of my process is to scan the entire baseball card for things that stand out to me, most specifically pitching match-ups. Also, I look for teams to back or fade because of winning/losing streaks, line-up changes, and teams with hot hitting or slumping line-ups. This initial scan will generate a list of about one to four selections around Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, the days which have the first game of each series. This list grows as the series' between teams gets to the third and fourth game, so Wednesday and Sunday's lists usually have most selections after the initial scan. This list is around five to eight plays. However, further research must be done to whittle down the card.
PITCHING MATCH-UPS - The first piece of in-depth research is on the starting pitchers. I look at the current state of each pitcher but don't put a ton of weight into it, as pitchers have various ups and downs throughout the season. However, it is important to notice if a pitcher is struggling against everyone or is in a consistent rhythm. Next, I'll look at the past history of both starters against their opposing line-ups, as well as their performance at that specific ball park. Some pitchers have publicly stated that they love/hate pitching at certain stadiums because of the mound, lay out of the park, etc.
BULLPENS - The bullpen of each team is probably most over-looked aspect of handicapping baseball games. However, the pen can have the biggest effect on the outcome of the game. One of the best examples of this point is a game where the starting pitchers are excellent and have had success against the opposing line-ups. However, both teams have horrible bullpens and good hitting line-ups. This game could have a total in the 10-11 range and still fly over the total, even with the starting pitchers giving up just a few runs combined. In addition, one team could be dominating the entire game, but if their bullpen was overused the night before and lack depth, then they can still lose the game despite having the lead throughout. It's important to stay away from games where the starting pitcher will have to have a dominating performance to overcome a struggling bullpen.
HOME/ROAD PERFORMANCE - Baseball is a fickle sport sometimes and is hard to predict by just looking at numbers and statistics. Some divisional match-ups, for example, always have the home team dominating the series, regardless of the pitching match-up. One of the best examples of this has been the Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox match-up. Each team has dominated the series on their home field over the past few years, regardless of the starting pitching match-ups. These kinds of trends are critical to notice and can produce very consistent profits, while these games can yield very poor results if analyzed incorrectly.
TRENDS - I think that one of the biggest factors in baseball handicapping is looking at short-term trends, specifically series trends. I very rarely like to go against trends that have been consistent throughout an entire series heading into the last game. These tendencies are either teams going for a series sweep, or hitting streaks/slumps. I will also use these short term results to look for situations with excellent value, specifically with underdogs that the betting public is still severely fading.
VARIOUS OTHER FACTORS - Some of the final factors that I look at are things like wind/weather conditions, umpire, and possible line-up changes due to rest/injury. These small pieces of information can have a significant impact on the game. Wind has a huge effect in a ballpark like Wrigley Field, where the wind direction can have the biggest impact on the total runs scored. Umpires can also have a big impact on pitchers performance and the total. Certain umpires have a bigger strike zone than others, which lead to better performances by pitchers
SANITY CHECK - One final check is something that isn't very technical, but I call it the common sense check. It's basically a question where I ask myself, does this play make sense? Sometimes people can get so caught up in numbers and statistical analysis that they fail to take a common sense approach to handicapping. This very general check always me to take a step back and just think about the outcome of the game without numbers and match-ups running through my head.
The previously discussed factors are a bulk of the analysis behind my baseball selections. I have fine-tuned my baseball handicapping over the last few years and have found that my analysis has produced increasingly consistent results. Feel free to use the previously listed examples to aid in your handicapping skills, as we all ultimately have the same goal of beating the books.
I have started the baseball season by hitting better than 70% of my selections, and I have been on a long-term run in the NBA over the last two months. I AM ON A 80+ UNIT STREAK OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS....enough said.
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