If you haven�t noticed yet, college basketball lines have become very sharp, as oddsmakers have almost a full season of statistics and information to use. This past Saturday there were 50 games that ended within 6 points or less of the given spread on the side. That means these 50 games had point spread outcomes that were decided by just 2 possessions! However, Saturday January 24th had just 38 games that had point spread outcomes decided by 6 points or less. In fact, a closer look at that day shows that the variation or �mistakes� in lines were far greater than this past Saturday, February 28th. From now until the end of March Madness, college basketball games are going to have sides that are very sharp. However, there are a few ways to beat the lines for the rest of the regular season and conference tournament play. Let�s take a deeper look at how to do it.
First, in order to figure out the future, we must take a look at the past. Let�s look at some of the easier point spread covers from this past weekend and see if a trend develops. For the sake of argument, I�ll stick with the major conference games from this past Saturday. In the Big 12, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State had relatively comfortable covers, as the point spreads weren�t really in doubt for most of the game. In the Big East, St. John�s had one of the easiest covers of any major conference team this weekend, with a 21 point win at DePaul. Indiana and Purdue had double digit point spread covers in the Big 10. Alabama, Auburn, and Vanderbilt all had very easy point spread covers in the SEC. The Pac 10�s only team with a comfortable cover was Stanford. In total, there were 9 teams with strong point spread wins this past Saturday.
Seven of the nine above listed teams were small favorites or underdogs. Only Texas A&M and Purdue were large favorites to have comfortable point spread covers. Purdue pulled away from Ohio State in the 2nd half, and the Buckeyes never responded with any type of rally. Texas A&M has a strong home court advantage, and they overwhelmed Iowa State, a team that has given up on the season, in the 2nd half with a huge surge. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, and Stanford were all at home and needing a win. They were also small favorites and facing teams of relatively similar talent level. Essentially the difference in the game was the home court edge and added motivation. However, Indiana, Alabama, and Auburn all had easy point spread covers as underdogs. Indiana has continued to fight throughout the season, and Penn State didn�t bring anywhere near the intensity needed to beat the Hoosiers by double digits. In fact, the Nittany Lions haven�t beaten any kind of quality competition by 14 points or more this season. Mississippi had several players banged up or sick, and Alabama wanted desperately to end their SEC road losing streak. As a result, the Tide got a blowout road win. Meanwhile, Auburn had a tremendous shooting game against Mississippi State, as well as a more balanced attack, which led to the blowout road win. St. John�s was also able to get a blowout win at DePaul, mainly because the Blue Demons have completely given up on the season.
After looking at the above results, there are three key points to take away. First, take a very close look at games with a small point spread to see if one team has some kind of decisive advantage, be it home court, motivation, or just a better overall team. These games usually have a team which can be blown out if they don�t show up or if they face an opponent with a strong motivational advantage. The key in these games is knowing which team will show up with more intensity. Second, look to fade average teams which are large favorites, as long as their opponents have not completely given up on the season. Third, fade teams that have thrown the towel in on their season. DePaul is the perfect example of a team to fade because of a complete lack of motivation.
Overall, knowing which team will play with more motivation is absolutely essential to conference tournament handicapping. Teams on the bubble are going to be facing conference leaders in the next two weeks. However, these bubble teams will desperately need a marquee win in order to make it to the field of 64. They will also be large underdogs against teams that have their tournament bid locked up and are looking ahead to the NCAA tournament.
The oddsmaker�s lines are going to be extremely sharp for the rest of the season. However, there are some profitable situations to take advantage of. Using some of the previously discussed concepts are the some of the ways to find the most value for the remainder of the college basketball season.
Be sure to check out my NCAA tournament selections, as you will be hard pressed to find a better March Madness handicapper. My tournament selections hit over 65% last season, and I am expecting another strong performance this year. I step up in the biggest of games, when it matters most. My March Madness package is already available at the pro cappers section.
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