The so-called experts on television proclaimed several times that this NFL season is one of the wackiest ever. They were amazed after each week of the regular season as favorites routinely lost outright. In addition, they were shocked with the turnarounds that Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta had. They also showed amazement with the drop-offs of Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Green Bay. However, one thing that is never spoken is the great deal of parody in the NFL and that any team can win on any given week. Let?s take a deeper look at this concept.
The sports media had several darlings this season. Dallas, New York Jets and Giants, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona, and Tampa Bay were all beat down after a week of being praised by the major networks. In fact, almost all of those losses were out at home when they were favored by a decent margin. There are two important things to be taken from this trend. First, the teams listed above all experienced at least one week where everyone was telling them how good they were. Meanwhile, their opponents had to listen to comments and questions about how good the other team was. Consequently, the underdog came out fired up with a chip on their shoulder and got a dominating outright win. The second point to take away is that odds makers inflate the lines in these games. These teams are bigger favorites than they should be, especially if they weren?t coming off of big wins. We saw this trend once again last week in the 1st round of the NFL playoffs.
Atlanta was a favorite of the media, as they finished the season well, including a road win over Minnesota. They also had a chance to get a 1st round bye, but Carolina kicked a last second field goal to beat New Orleans and win the NFC South. Meanwhile, Arizona had a disastrous end to the season. They lost four out of their last six games, including blowout losses to Philadelphia, Minnesota, and New England. As a result, Atlanta ended up as the favorite, despite being the road team. If these two teams would have played earlier in the season, Arizona would have been at least a three point favorite at home. The Cardinals used the lack of attention and underdog role to get a big home win over their more publicized opponent. Once again, the media was almost baffled as to how Arizona could beat an Atlanta team that looked so good to end the season.
This weekend features four excellent playoff match-ups, as well as some teams that have been getting a great deal of praise this week. Baltimore and Philadelphia had good wins last week and got the most attention from the highlight shows. However, Miami had a great deal of success moving the ball on them in the 2nd half but couldn?t capitalize. Meanwhile, Philadelphia used an interception return for a touchdown, as well as a long touchdown pass to get the bulk of their points. Basically, both the Eagles and Ravens had weaknesses despite their wins last weekend.
As the NFL playoffs progress, always consider which team is getting too much praise from the media, as these teams are usually overvalued and don?t bring the same intensity as their underdog opponents.
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