Dan Bebe

Argh: NBA RoundUp for 3/17

2010-03-17T04:44:00Z

It's a travel day for Danny Boy, so enjoy the blog, and I'll be headed across the country for most of the day!

A recap of yesterday's action saw us collect an easy winner with our Free Play on the Heat-Spurs Under, and a tough, tough loss as the Kings-Lakers ending has left me scratching my head. Why does Ron Artest foul Jason Thompson and keep Tyreke Evans from his triple double? Why doesn't Jason Thompson make a darn free throw? It really seemed like when the Kings got the ball back with 20 seconds left, and the game decided, a cover or a push was a pretty strong probability. Sometimes bad breaks come in bunches, so it's our job to make sure we don't let those cloud our judgment when we're getting set to burst out of this stretch of .500 handicapping.

As I said last night, if our cold streaks are mostly marked by trading off wins and losses, and splitting cards because of a bad break, we are FAR from in a bad spot. Plenty of action left, and the bad breaks can stop at any moment. When that happens, we'll rattle off a beefy run.

Sports Wagering

Nets @ Sixers - This line is OFF. Well, the Nets finally lost an ATS bet last night, and I don't think it should come as a surprise that it came on, yep, the FIRST GAME HOME. Just a very, very tough spot for teams, especially a Nets club that almost doesn't have a home court edge in that barren wasteland they call a home arena. Now, they head back on the road, and this is a spot I would much prefer to look at Jersey. Believe it or not, Jersey is actually an even 17-17 ATS on the road, so oddsmakers are starting to figure out this team's road ability, and get that season ATS mark a little closer to even. I suppose the issue is that Jersey hasn't really done anything on back-to-back games; though, looking closer, they have covered their last 2 and 3 of 4 back-to-backs since mid-February, so at least they're showing signs of playing with some gusto. I know this sounds nuts, but I actually believe the Nets have the motivational edge here. Jersey is still playing to try NOT to be one of the worst teams in history, but the Sixers seem to have completely mailed it in. They've lost 5 straight and 10 of 11 games straight up, and they've covered just 3 of those 11 games, so it isn't much prettier ATS. Interestingly, all 3 games this year between these two teams have been won by Philadelphia, but by 3 or 4 points, and the Nets have covered all 3. Very weird. I think Jersey can actually use some of that triple-revenge here, since the Sixers really aren't that much better than Jersey, and the Sixers remain one of the worst home ATS teams in the NBA at 9-23 ATS. I lean Jersey. On the total, all 3 games have gone under the mark, but Jersey's been playing better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sixers just play an up-and-down streetball style game. I lean Over.

Hawks @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Will the Raptors ever consider waking back up? Do they even know they're slated to actually go to the playoffs? It sure doesn't look like it. This is a nice proving game for them, though, as they get to tackle the Hawks, who should be good and tired heading into Canada. This isn't a good spot for either team, though, with Toronto coming home off a terrible West coast road trip, where they lost all 4 games, and covered just 1 of those 4. I really wish I could find a way to back the Raptors here -- the Hawks have beaten Toronto BADLY twice already this year, so there may be some revenge factor for the Raptors, but even with the Hawks coming in tired and off a win over Jersey, and even with the value the Raptors should have coming off such an awful stretch, I'm just not sure I can ever really confidently back a team off such a long flight home and playing their first game back in over a week. So, again, as sort of a wrapping up thought, as badly as I want to back Toronto, given the Hawks fatigue factor and the double-revenge, and all that, I just think it takes the Raptors ONE MORE GAME to get settled back in - they match up very poorly with the Hawks, so I'd be careful. I guess, gun to my head, I lean Atlanta, but I'd prefer to call this one a near-mandatory pass. On the total, this number is going to come out pretty high, I fear, and with Toronto playing a first game home and the Hawks tired, defense might be at a premium - I lean Over.

Pacers @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 13 with a total of 209. Two of the stranger games from last night, that's for sure, involved these teams. The Cavaliers got a cover in Detroit in a game that was about as close to looking "fixed" as any I've seen all year - and I didn't have a cent on it. I just have no idea how Detroit continues to foul and foul and foul and let the Cavs have scores until they get outscored by that many points just in the final minute. Very weird. In any case, the Cavs got the cover, and now they head back home, the quick trip from Detroit to Cleveland, and get to lay 13 whopping points to the Pacers. Indiana beat Charlotte yesterday, giving some small measure of credibility to their ability to play at home. The Pacers have actually won 3 straight at home, but unfortunately, they've lost 8 straight on the road. With both teams tired, I'm not sure trying to pick which side is going to show up is the best option. We know how tough the Cavs can be, and Lebron has a way of keeping his troops motivated. Still, neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot, which means you have to at least look at the huge road dog, and I suppose I would then give a teeny tiny lean to Indiana.. On the total, though, we might very well get to see some scoring, here. Obviously, the concern is whether the Pacers will make enough buckets to help this total get to 209. They'll push the pace, and the Cavs will score close to 110, but the Pacers just don't shoot well on the road, and the hope is that the Cavs' defense just won't be that strong. These teams haven't cracked 200 points in their previous two games, and something just feels like this one might be a runner. I lean Over.

Thunder @ Bobcats - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 191. This game intrigues me, though I'm not 100% sold on a play just yet. The Bobcats are coming home off a loss in Indiana, and the lack of Gerald Wallace combined with the letdown off the big road win in Orlando seemed to take Charlotte's focus off Indiana and maybe got set on going home a little too early. I mean, Charlotte got badly outplayed by the Pacers: they turned the ball over more often, and even though they shot the ball better than Indy, the Pacers' attacked the glass, and really separated themselves from the Bobcats with a strong 2nd quarter. So, now I can't help but wonder if Charlotte bounces back in this game against one of the League's rising powers, or if they continue to suffer a little skid. Charlotte does seem to have a knack for losing 2 or 3 games in a row in between nice win streaks. Charlotte had won 6 straight going into this loss at Indiana, but before that they had lost 5 of 6. If Gerald Wallace misses this game, I find the Bobcats hard to back, even though they're quite strong at home. The Thunder are just not a team that even a slow-it-down club like Charlotte can really contain, and if the Thunder are at all interested in this game, which they should be since it's the first game of a road trip where this is actually the toughest game, then the Thunder should win by a bucket. I know this game might look a little like a "trap", but I can't help but lean to the surging Thunder. I will admit, I don't have a good read on this total - we know the Bobcats want to slow things to a crawl, especially against a team with so many weapons like the Thunder, but can they control things? I lean slightly to the Under, since I believe the Thunder are comfortable in both slower or quicker games.

Knicks @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 208.5. Well, Boston can't play any better than they did against Detroit two days ago -- the question is, can they play almost as well? Because an equally strong effort from Boston would most certainly mean a cover. A weak effort, and covering double digits seems damn near impossible, especially since the Knicks are actually playing decent ball lately. New York has picked up 2 straight road wins, a crushing blowout of the Dallas Mavericks in one of the weirdest games of the season followed by a solid win in Philadelphia against the struggling Sixers. My concerns with this game are numerous. For instance, if I'm thinking about backing the Celtics, can I really trust Michael Finley to rain in buckets at a near-perfect clip, and can I expect Boston to shoot 62% as a team for the game, even in garbage time? Seems unlikely. But what if I back the Knicks? Boston has won both games this season, but hasn't covered either one -- is this the game where the Knicks realize they just can't get over that Celtic hump, or do the Knicks figure that if they can get THAT close to winning, maybe this is their night. I honestly don't know how the Knicks have stayed so close in both games this year - both have gone WAY over the total, so perhaps the Knicks have had great success at suckering Boston into quicker games, and trading buckets is no way to beat a team by more than 5 or 6 points. Now, we see oddsmakers have adjusted this total by 10 points above the last meeting, and that's worth noting, as well. They're expecting another high-scoring affair, which makes me think the Knicks get up near 100 points - I only hope the Knicks don't look forward to getting home off their road trip. If the Knicks weren't riding a little momentum, I'd be more concerned about the "Last Road Game" theory, but as it is, I think they're having fun, and I think they score some buckets. I lean New York, and I think the total is pretty accurate, but I can't help but think it might have been overadjusted, and I lean Under.

Spurs @ Magic - Orlando by 7.5 with a total of 194.5. This spread is strikingly low, considering the Spurs are playing a back-to-back game. Are the Magic really only 2.5-point favorites to the Spurs on a neutral court? Let's check out some common opponents, if we can find one. Oh goodie, we can: the Clippers. The Magic hosted the Clippers on the first game of LA's road trip East just about a week ago, and were laying 13 points. So, 10 points better on a neutral court. A few days later, the Clippers played a 4th game in 5 nights in San Antonio, while the Spurs were coming home on a back-to-back, and laid 11.5, so they were just about 8 or 8.5 point favorites on a neutral court. How about that - this line is actually pretty fair, or certainly within a point of fair. I guess that's worth noting, because the Magic don't often get a fair line, being one of the true marquee clubs in the NBA right now. Does that mean this is a rare time where maybe we take a look at Orlando? I suppose it's worth considering -- the Spurs are a middle of the road team on back-to-back games, but they've had a huge issue scoring points when tired. Generally, they've been able to stay in games by slowing things down, but the Magic are a stronger, faster team, so if I'm the Spurs, I'm a little scared. They are fortunate to have been able to get out to a big lead over the Heat, and really didn't have to play at full speed in the 4th quarter, though an early-quarter surge by Miami forced the Spurs to leave started in until the 3 or 4 minute mark. I hate to say it, but I like Orlando, and I don't think it's a trap. On the side, I like the Under, since the Spurs are going to try every trick on the planet to keep this thing low-scoring, and while the Magic might get theirs, the Spurs might not.

Grizzlies @ Rockets - This line is OFF. Alright, so, what's going on with the Grizzlies? They got up big on a badly undermanned Chicago team, then let them claw their way back into the game. A truly motivated team doesn't let that happen, though I suppose there is the possibility coach Hollins might have been trying to buy his guys a little more rest than usual last night with this showdown with Houston coming up. Both of these teams want this game BADLY, and when the motivation factor is almost equal, I think the best move is a pass. As far as angles go, Memphis got embarrassed by Houston at home shortly before the All Star Break, and so far this year it just looks like Houston has Memphis's number. I would honestly be very, very careful with this game. The Grizzlies are going to be a bit fatigued, and a rested Rockets team can definitely put up some points. The total is probably going to be a tad inflated with the Rockets coming off a near-250 point total with Denver, and Houston might very well suffer a small letdown off that huge comeback win over the Nuggets, but with all these competing angles, the possibility that the Rockets just own the Grizzlies, both teams needing this win to have any shot at the playoffs (and even that is a stretch), I just don't think this one is worth playing a side. I guess if you got that gun back out and pointed it at me again, I'd lean to the veteran Rockets to execute in a big game. On the total, I have to lean Under without even seeing it, as both teams have been playing some high scoring games, and there's almost no chance we're not getting a few points of value on an Under.

Bulls @ Mavericks - This line is OFF. Chicago is in bad shape these days. They did somehow mount a monster comeback against the Grizzlies last night to get a cover as a huge underdog, and if you thought that line was outrageous, wait until we get a load of this one. Given that the Bulls were getting 11.5 points in Memphis, and now they're playing a back-to-back game against a better team, we might be looking at a 15-point spread. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but this is an awful spot for Chicago, no matter what scrubs are playing. Chicago could be missing 80% of their starting 5 again tonight, with Taj Gibson the lone exception, and Dallas is coming off getting blown out by 34 at home by the Knicks, and haven't played in 4 days. Yikes. Dallas beat Chicago 122-116 on the road 11 days ago, so we know they can handle the Bulls, and the only real concern with Dallas is whether they can actually play some defense at home. The return of Brendan Haywood helps Dallas quite a bit, but at 8-25 ATS at home, the Mavs are never really an "easy" home team to back. But here, with the Bulls going all out in trying to come back against the Grizzlies, and the Mavs in a spot where they want to take out some anger against the next team to come into their building, I have to lean to the chalky Mavs. On the total, I just can't see the Bulls competing on the offensive end if the Mavs play any defense at all, and I lean Under.

Wolves @ Jazz - Utah by 15 with a total of 214. You guys know my feelings on a team coming from a 7pm Pacific time start, and heading into the altitude on the second half of that back-to-back. It's really the combination of factors that leaps above all others. Not only do they get into Utah at 3am and get to a hotel, probably a bit hungry, near 4, but they have to try to sleep in the altitude, and get ready for a game with a strong, tough team not terribly long from that time they get into town. The Jazz crushed the Wizards on Monday, so they're rested, and they're feeling just fine about themselves, knowing that every win gets them closer to home court in the first round of the playoffs, and maybe more if some of the teams ahead of them would lose a couple. I know this is a monster spread, and these are really becoming the norm down the stretch as the weaker teams start to call it a year, but unfortunately, now is just the time of the season where we need to start taking a look at these big favorites. They're covering a good half the time, and if we can find the right situational spot to back a huge favorite, we can get ourselves a blowout win, and in the process, a 5-10 point cover. Interestingly, these two teams have actually played close games this year, and that's the one point of concern here. The Wolves actually beat Utah twice, then forced the Jazz to play to the final possession in losing the 3rd meeting. I just wonder if the Wolves have the drive to try to compete again, when they're going to be tired beyond tired, and also can see the finish line on this complete failure of a 2009-2010 season. I have to lean to the big favorite here, as the only thing keeping us from doing so is that the Wolves seem to play well against the Jazz, but I don't really think that's a trackable trend. On the total, all 3 games have gone over so far this year, and I think finally oddsmakers have adjusted. Minnesota isn't going to score enough to get this one over the total, and I lean Under.

Hornets @ Warriors - Golden State by 3 with a total of 229. There's a little revenge at play here, as the Warriors lost by 4 in New Orleans (but got the cover) just a little over a week ago. Now, the Warriors get to play host to a Hornets team that seems to be just about done with this season. Yes, they beat the Clippers, but there are only about 2 or 3 teams in the NBA playing less inspired basketball than the Hornets, and the Clips just happen to be one of those teams. Here, the Warriors are playing about as hard as anyone in the NBA, but I do have two concerns about this game. First, the line was Warriors getting 6 points in New Orleans, and now they're laying 3? A 9-point swing is pretty hefty, especially since neither team is playing a back to back - is it possible that the return of Monta Ellis is really the only thing shifting this line 3 extra points? The other concern I have is that the Warriors are coming off that game with the Lakers where they went all out and nearly sent that game to overtime. Do they suffer a letdown, these young guys on Golden State, after pouring their hearts into that near-miss against LA? And, does New Orleans get a little confidence off the win over the Clippers, and carry that into Oakland? There are just too many questions to be answered about each team. I actually believe that the line shift between games is too big, and that there might be a point or two of value on the New Orleans side, especially considering they've shot the ball very well in all 3 games against the Warriors this year. It's not a lean, more a trademark tilt to the Hornets, but avoiding the side might be the best move in another weird late-season matchup. These teams scored 266 points in the last meeting, and this total got adjusted by 12 - the over just looks too easy, and the value is definitely with the Under.

Bucks @ Clippers - Milwaukee by 3.5 with a total of 192. This line looks all kinds of crazy to me. The hottest team in the NBA is laying only 3.5 to one of the worst teams in the NBA? This is exactly the kind of game, where, in the middle of the season, this game would be Clippers or nothing, but here near the end of the season, I just don't know if there's that same value in the underdog. Sure, the Clippers are getting almost 2 buckets on their home court, which in January is a nice little chunk, but the dog days are done, and the cream is rising to the top. This is indeed the Clippers second game back off that awful road trip, so they'll play a bit better tonight than they did against the Hornets on Monday, but in terms of situational angles, neither team is really in a particularly good or bad spot. And, as noted before, at this point in the season, I think we need a very strong reason to take the underdog in a game where the motivational edge is so severe for the better team. For instance, last night, the Bobcats were in a letdown spot in Indiana, and the very short line was an indication of that. Here, the Bucks are coming to town off a win (and missed cover) at home against the Pacers 3 days ago. They've had plenty of time to regroup and make their push down the stretch, and while this line is certainly an odd one, I fear we may be overthinking things just a bit by trying to find a way to back the Clippers. I don't trust them, and I think they're done with this season. I lean Bucks. On the total, the Clippers have been playing no defense at all, but the Bucks have been trying to win games with execution - when two styles butt heads like that, I'd prefer to pass on the total.

Jason Maxiell's Mighty Patella: NBA RoundUp for 3/16

2010-03-16T04:08:00Z

Wow, that was ugly!

Sports Wagering

Bobcats @ Pacers - Charlotte by 1 with a total of 197.5. This line is strikingly low, and I'm having all kinds of issues wrapping my head around it. I can only assume the public is going to see the same thing, since the extreme "smallitude" of this line is just smacking us in the face. So, I suppose the question is whether or not the Bobcats are truly 4 points better than the Pacers on a neutral court. I mean, I know Charlotte isn't a spectacular team, and they're likely going to be playing without Gerald Wallace, but it seems like this line is the oddsmaker's way of saying that Charlotte got a big win over Orlando without Wallace, but the "other guys" will suffer a letdown in this one. Interestingly, Indiana has won their last 2 home games, but they've been on the road so much it's tough to remember. But at the same time, from a motivational standpoint, the Bobcats have every reason to play hard in this one, and the Pacers really have none. Charlotte, on top of that, has always been just fine with playing in Indiana, at 8-2 ATS in the team's brief history in this particular venue. So why oh why is this line so low? I'm not going to bite just yet, but I have to say, in terms of games where I'm considering "going square," this is among that list. It's the Charlotte letdown factor against the Pacers home court edge and desire to play spoiler. I guess I lean Charlotte, but mostly because I don't understand this one. This total is not really in Charlotte's comfort zone, and I'm also debating whether this is a hint that Indiana gets this thing moving along. I still think Charlotte can slow things down, and I lean Under.

Spurs @ Heat - This line is OFF. This game doesn't interest me much, if only because we have two teams that are fighting for playoff spots/positioning, and both are playing like it matters. At this point in the season, we really need to continue to rely heavily on handicapping motivation, and both teams are heavily motivated to perform in this one. The Heat have won 6 of 7 games and covered 5 of 6, so they're playing well, including a 13-point win over the Sixers in their most recent game. The Spurs have won 7 of 8 and covered 6 of 7, so these two teams have been almost the same over the past couple weeks. Also, both teams play Orlando next - sort of a weird scheduling anomaly, with the Spurs playing them tomorrow, and the Heat the following day. Is this a look-ahead game? Potentially, but it would be a look-ahead for both teams. I guess maybe a little more for the Heat, since Orlando is a rival, but can you really say one team is in a "lookier" ahead spot when they're about to face the same opponent? No leans on the side in this game, but I do get a sentimental feeling about the Under in this game, since both teams prefer to grind it out - the Spurs play lower scoring games on the road, the Heat have been playing some higher-scoring games against teams with awful defenses.

Cavaliers @ Pistons - Cleveland by 9.5 with a total of 195.5. This one is going to increase by morning, as the public catches wind of Tayshaun Prince's injury and the Piston's AWFUL performance last night in Boston. In fact, while I can't possibly advocate backing the Pistons given the injury situation and the fact that they're 0-5 ATS on back-to-back games since the All Star Break. That being said, this might be an opportunity to set up a middle - Cleveland will probably be a 10.5 or 11 point favorite by morning, or even before I get this blog up (in which case, don't worry about it), but with the public likely backing Cleveland, and the injury move added in there, the Cavs could very well be 12 point favorites before this one tips. That's a very liberal estimate, but it's a possibility, and it's definitely the best way to handle the side in this game. There might be 1 time per season I advocate backing a road team laying nearly double-digits, but this ain't that time. But again, as noted, Detroit is in no place to compete. No leans on the side in this game, too. On the total, can anyone REALLY see Detroit breaking 85 points? If the Cavaliers bring it at even 85-90%, they should win this game 100 to 85. Marginally strong lean to the Under, though this one might drop, too when the injury and overall bad play gets factored into the mix.

Hawks @ Nets - This line is OFF. Joe Johnson is expected to miss this game, and while we might very well see the Injured Star Theory in play, I'm not sure the other guys are going to get up for a game with the Nets. Atlanta has spanked the Nets by a combined 53 points in the two meetings so far this year, and I just can't imagine this is a game they really, truly care about. On top of that, the Hawks just haven't been playing good basketball lately. They covered their last game, beating Detroit by 13 at home, but the Pistons have been notoriously bad on back-to-back spots. Prior to that win, the Hawks had lost 4 straight games ATS, and looked back in two road losses in Miami and New York. On the other side, the Nets have covered 6 straight games! Some of them, just barely, but a cover's a cover. The big concern here is that the Nets have been on the road for 5 games, so this is the first game in "The Dead Zone" (their home arena) since a home loss (but a cover) againt the Magic on the 5th. 11 days away from home can take a toll on a team, even if they're covering. Still, it's pretty obvious the Nets want to win, and getting terrible teams that are giving 100% is a good spot - they don't want to be remembered as one of the worst teams in NBA history, and there are only so many games left to try to squeeze out a few W's. I have just a tiny lean to the Nets, though Atlanta could just as easily win by 25 again. On the total, the Hawks are going to want to get into a scoring match, since the Nets simply can't keep up, and the Nets only real shot to win is to keep Atlanta from getting out and getting those offensive rebounds. I lean Over.

Bulls @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. It looks like Chicago will be without Rose, Deng, Noah and Hinrich in this one, and maybe Brad Miller. That's tough to stomach. The Grizzlies might be without Marc Gasol, but let's stop for a moment and realize how the motivational angles go head to head. The Bulls are basically done; without 80% of their starting 5, they have no shot of making the playoffs. The dilemma in this game is quite clearly whether the Bulls will get enough points in the spread. The Grizzlies might be a tad dejected off that meltdown against the Nuggets, so there's certainly the possibility that one, if not a few of the players will be starting to think their chances of slipping into the Western Conference postseason have just about hit zero. And if even a few guys on the team aren't going full tilt, we're in trouble. Memphis beat Chicago in Chicago as a 5-point underdog about 2 weeks ago, but given the injuries, we're probably looking at a pretty hefty point spread swing in this game. Still, despite the potential for Memphis to have a letdown game off that bad performance against Denver, I think they just want this game more, and I think they'll win it by close to double digits. I lean to the Grizzlies. On the total, Memphis has been playing some high scoring games, but can Chicago's reserves keep up? Let's take a peek at where this total comes out, but if indeed we can get the Over at a relatively reasonable number, I might bite.

Wizards @ Nuggets - Denver by 14 with a total of 210. Now that, right there, is a spread! Two touchdowns, the Wizards are giving up in this one, and maybe we can understand why. The Wizards are going from Utah to Denver, so back-to-back games in the altitude, and considering they had 3 games in 3 nights less than a week ago, the Wizards are staring at a 5 games in 6 days situation. Our buddy Jeff pointed out that that absolutely never happens, and the odds of the Wizards actually holding together are so, so slim. I know Denver is headed home to finish a back-to-back and play a 4th in 5 days, as well, but they know how to play in the altitude. I know Denver is playing its first game at home in 9 days, so they might relax a little, but Washington clearly just has nothing left in the tank, and this spread might actually increase. I can't believe I'm saying this, but as many bad angles as the Nuggets are dealing with, nothing is more absurd than the Wizards schedule, and to be doing it on the road with 2 straight days in altitude is just unreal. The schedule-makers deserve to have a meeting with Gilbert Arenas. In any case, I almost don't care who Washington is playing today, I won't back them. I lean Nuggets in a furious blowout. I lean to the Over, as well, since I can easily see Denver playing poor defense on a back-to-back while scoring like crazy themselves.

Wolves @ Suns - This line is OFF. I think this is off because of Kevin Love, but it's pretty weak for oddsmakers to hold back a line on a game that's clearly going to be a double-digit spread. Luckily, Phoenix doesn't seem to be opposed to beating lesser teams by double digits. I guess the question here is whether the Suns show the Wolves enough daylight to let them get some confidence. Defense, believe it or not, is going to be the key to this game. Both teams love to get up and down the court, and the Suns have to make sure they don't just get into a back-and-forth bucket-for-bucket game, since that's really the only prayer the Wolves have. Phoenix can win this game easily and by a large number if they protect the rim and grab defensive rebounds, and that should be a bit easier if Kevin Love is indeed out. The Wolves have lost 15 of 16 games SU, so things are about as ugly as they can be for Minnesota, and lately they haven't been covering either, so they're getting creamed. I can't back a team that has thrown in the towel, and it seems like finding motivation is tough on the road. Obviously, the back door is going to be wide open in another gigantic spread game, but once again I have to lean to the big home favorite, since the Wolves aren't in any spot to truly compete the rest of the year. I lean Suns. On the total, we might be looking at a number up around 215, and if so, I hate to say it, but I got nothin'.

Lakers @ Kings - Lakers by 6.5 with a total of 205.5. This is not going to be an easy game for the Lakers. I suppose the only advantage is that the Lakers only have to travel 80 miles to get from Oracle Arena in Oakland up to Arco in Sacramento. Otherwise, the Lakers could be in a bit of a fatigue spot. They had to play their asses off last night to escape an excitable Warriors team, and now are laying 6.5 points against the Kings? See, this doesn't make a ton of sense to me, since the Lakers were laying 8.5 against Golden State. By that token, the Kings and Warriors are being set at equals on a neutral court, but just a few days ago, the Trailblazers were laying just 1.5 points at Sacramento the day after laying 6 in Golden State! A little quick math there should have set the Warriors at 2.5-point neutral court favorites over the Warriors, and the Lakers should either have been bigger favorites last night in Golden State, which clearly they didn't need to be given the ATS loss, or should be a smaller favorite tonight. Are the Lakers truly 11.5-points better than the Kings on a neutral site? I don't think so, and I don't think they'd be 14.5-point favorites over Sacramento if this game was in LA. The Lakers are 7-9 ATS in back-to-back games, which is exactly the same percentage as their overall ATS mark. However, the problem seems to come on the defensive end, and just like with Golden State, if the Lakers don't defend, they're not going to win "big" on the road. Lean to the Kings, and lean the Over.

Batum Goes Boom! - NBA RoundUp for 3/15

2010-03-15T05:06:00Z

These openings are getting to be a bit long-winded, and until my amount of free time increases by, say 25%, I think it's time to put more of my energy into the game write-ups, and less into recapping records and yesterday's results. Side note: thanks to Goodfella for today's blog title!

So, quickly, we won yesterday with the Blazers, and picked up another Prop Bet winner on Tyreke Evans scoring over 19 points. Strong Sunday, hopefully the start to a much better week than the last one!

We're now 15-7-1 on our last 23 Paid Plays, and 23-13 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break. You guys know the long term record stands at 60% since mid-January (basically, when I shook off the Just-Turned Pro Jitters), so no need to list the exact numbers - they are all available at my Pro Page. Click this paragraph to get there.

Sports Wagering

Knicks @ Sixers - Philadelphia by 3.5 with a total of 210.5. Two teams with nothing to play for going head-to-head; just what we've always wanted, right? Well, there are still some angles at play that we might as well take a peek at, just in case this game turns out to be a value. Off the bat, it's pretty clear that the Sixers have mailed it in for this season. They've lost 8 of 9 games, and 3 straight, and generally they've been getting pummeled, as they're just 3-6 ATS in those 9 contests. Philadelphia got whipped by the Heat in Miami yesterday, though it's tough to call it a back-to-back, just because of the game being played on Sunday afternoon. Philly has been pretty middle-of-the-pack in back-to-back games anyway, and the fact that they're still laying 3.5 here is somewhat of a surprise to me. The Knicks come to town off an insane road blowout of the Dallas Mavericks. That game is tough to explain, though the Knicks certainly have the offensive tempo to put up some numbers. The Sixers aren't playing defense, they're not scoring much, and it looks like they're trying to give the young guys some more run, here. Again, it's tough to really claim that one team is a value in this one, since neither has any reason to give 100%, but I think when you've got two teams that both have nothing going on, it's a wise move to look at either the home team or the team getting points. Unfortunately, those are opposite sides in this game. Philadelphia has been awful at home at just 9-22 ATS, so perhaps that wipes out one angle, and I lean to the Knicks to at least take this sucker down to the wire, possibly win it outright. This total is awfully high, but you know New York wants a game up over 100, so I actually do have a slight lean to the Over.

Pistons @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 196. I would have loved to see Boston win yesterday in Cleveland, since that would have created downright MEGA value on the Pistons side, but even with the loss, I still think fading the Celtics at home is generally a decent bet. Unfortunately, Boston has actually been a more predictable look-ahead team this year than a letdown team. Coming off big games, they've done a decent job of covering spreads, though lately, those "letdown" spots have come on the road. We've talked at great length on the podcasts about that 9.5 number, and how it really entices the public to get on the favorite. It's not 10 points, so you're not laying double digits, and the public falls in love with the idea that surely the favorite can clear 9.5. But it's usually not so simple. The Pistons, despite their 9-10 ATS record in the season's second half, have actually been extremely predictable and successful when rested. Since the All Star Break, the Pistons are 7-3 ATS when on 1 day of rest, or more, and they had a day to gameplan here, and get those jump-shooting legs ready to roll. When on a back-to-back since the Break, the Pistons are an outstanding 0-5 ATS. If that doesn't tell you when to bet the Pistons, I don't know what does. I think this is a nice spot for them, as Detroit got beat by Boston at home earlier this month in a game that, really, Detroit could have won with a stronger second half. I think the Pistons are playing with pride right now, even if they're not winning much, but thanks to their pathetic mark in back-to-back games, they remain undervalued. I lean Detroit, since I think Boston has a mental lapse day, recovering from yesterday's mediocre effort in Cleveland. This total looks awfully high, but both teams have been playing less defensive-minded basketball than at any point in the last few years. I lean Over.

Nuggets @ Rockets - Denver by 3 with a total of 215.5. This side is very, very weird to me. I find it hard to believe the Nuggets are only 6-point neutral court favorites over Houston, but maybe my brain is just farting on this game. The Nuggets were laying 2 in Memphis on a back-to-back, so by that token, the Rockets are being ranked as 1-point better than the Grizzlies. It's almost as though someone got hurt, but I'm not aware of it, so for all the readers, if I missed something, please fill in the blanks. I can already tell that this game is going to be heavily bet on Denver, since it seems awfully easy to expect Denver to cover only 3 points in Houston, no? Something very weird about this game, and I can't quite put my finger on it. Yes, it's Denver's final game of their current 4-game road trip, but they've won 6 games in a row, and even in a game against Memphis that seemed like a trademark sluggish spot, Denver woke up and poured in 40 points in the 4th quarter. Quite frankly, while I feel like there's something going on with this line that I'm not quite processing, I wouldn't step in front of the Nuggets (again) without someone whispering to me that Carmelo Anthony has money on the opponent, or some similarly decisive inside information. I would love to say I lean to the Rockets, but I'm too busy scratching my head to lean in any direction. It's not a particularly good or bad spot for either team, and Denver had clubbed Houston twice already this year without much trouble. Be careful here. This total is the highest for any of the 3 meetings between these teams this year, which makes me think Houston and Denver get into a classic shootout, but with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games, I'm also concerned that it's just an inflated number. NO LEANS on this game.

Wizards @ Jazz - This line is OFF. Presumably because of Utah's injury issues. The Jazz are scuffling a little bit right now, dropping two straight games with the Bucks and the Thunder. Now, they have to head back home for a date with a team that doesn't seem all too interested in playing out the rest of the season. And that's a shame, too, because Utah is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and this would be a wonderful time to fade them if the competition wasn't so pathetic. The Wizards have lost 7 straight games, though I suppose the 2-5 ATS mark in that stretch isn't quite so horrid, still bad, though. Obviously, with Utah losing a couple in a row, the value of a play on Washington isn't quite as high, but I still contend that teams coming off a long stretch of solid play are sort of inclined to lose a few, or at least play less inspired basketball for a couple days before rounding back into shape. And while I want nothing more than to make a play on the Wizards, Washington played 3 games in 3 days, but only got 1 day off before this game in Utah, then another game tomorrow in Denver. This is a damn tiring stretch of basketball for both teams involved, which makes backing either club somewhat difficult. Still, when all is said and done, I have to lean to Washington. Even though they seem to have mailed it in, Utah is in a very difficult spot, and the spread is going to be massive on this one. In terms of the total, with both teams exhausted, I would think defense might be lacking, but at the same time, Washington hasn't cracked 100 points since Feb 26th. I might lean Under, depending on the line.

Hornets @ Clippers - This line is OFF. This line seems to be off because of Eric Gordon's injury, but man, you want to talk about two teams BOTH going down the toilet, this is that game. The Clippers are playing their first game home off a 5-game road trip that saw LA lose all 5 games, go 1-4 ATS, and of the 7 straight games the Clippers have lost, they've been blown out by 10 or more points in 6 of them, and lost the other game by 8. The Hornets lost in Phoenix last night, so they're probably going to be getting points in this game, and they've lost 8 straight games ATS. These are really 2 of the worst teams in the NBA right now, with the Bulls and Wolves also potential candidates for that award, and picking between the two is a struggle, to be sure. The Hornets have actually covered 10 straight games against the Clippers, and 8 of those 10 have gone over the posted total. Two of those 10 straight covers have come this season, but both of those games were in New Orleans. The question here is whether the Clippers can legitimately have a "first-game-home" letdown when they're losing nightly by 15-25 points. It almost seems like things can't get any worse for either of these teams. The Hornets, supposedly, are expecting Chris Paul back, so maybe they'll make one final push to rack up a few wins, and they did actually put forth a marginal effort last night in Phoenix before buckling to a better team, and they're 7-6 ATS on back-to-backs, so getting those 2 extra points might actually help their cause. I lean to the Hornets, who are sure to be a small road dog. I also lean to the Over, since I think the Clippers continue to struggle to defend (they've allowed 100 points in 8 straight), and the Hornets will continue to try to run, but might actually be able to score against a bad Clippers defense.

Lakers @ Warriors - Lakers by 7.5 with a total of 222. This game is 100% reliant on the Lakers actually trying. We know we're going to get a decent effort from the Warriors - those D-Leaguers are laying it on the line EVERY night, as they know one great game this year could potentially get them a contract for next season. Stephen Curry seems to be enjoying himself, and Monta Ellis, if healthy, is one of the tougher covers in the NBA. So, we know the Warriors are going to give a strong effort, especially against a marquee opponent like the Lakers. And are the Lakers really a 10.5 or 11-point neutral court favorite? That's a huge number of points to lay on the road, but again, if the Lakers give 90%, they can cover this number. The sheer size advantage the Lakers have over the Warriors is absurd, since Golden State's starting 5 is predominantly under 6'6", with a few exceptions, of course. But the Warriors have quietly covered 3 in a row and 6 of 8, so they're a good value right now, as one of the few BAD teams in the NBA still playing hard. In fact, aside from the fact that they're so wildly overmatched by the Lakers, the Warriors should be a good bet the rest of the season, as long as the D-Leaguers keep giving 100% - bad teams that are motivated to prove themselves are an amazing bet all year long, but even moreso as we hit the stretch run, and other teams start to mail it in. The Lakers are coming off a win on the road in Phoenix, so the obvious concern is that they're getting things turned around, and that makes me hesitant to back Golden State here. Also, LA beat Golden State 130-97 in Oakland earlier this year. I have a tiny lean to the Warriors because of the value, but we're talking TINY. The total intrigues me, since it seems awfully high. The Lakers haven't played that many high-scoring games lately, and I'm interested in seeing the bet% breakdown on this game, as that will give us a better indicator if this line is inflated or set high because oddsmakers believe the Warriors will crack 100 points. At first glance, I lean Over, but that is subject to change.

Who Shot J.R.? - NBA RoundUp for 3/14

2010-03-14T12:09:00Z

That title came at the request of a buddy, and maybe it's too soon to poke fun at our Big Play that went down in flames, I do like the idea of at least trying to take those 4th quarter meltdowns in stride.

I admit, I was at a very good friend's wedding all day and night yesterday (I was a groomsman, so I had to be down at the hotel early for pictures, drinks, etc.), but reading through the blog comments from yesterday, I didn't need to check the final or box score to know we weren't in good shape.

Again, checking scores, it appears as though the Spurs tore the Clippers a new one yet again, so at least the Free Play came through, we salvaged a 1-1 day, but certainly some losses for those that played the Big One at full value.

Like I said in the blog's last post yesterday, I certainly can't apologize for the Grizzlies falling apart, but I can definitely apologize for thinking they wouldn't -- so, guys, I sucked the big weenie on that one, and it's time to get back to winning. That sounds good - let's do that.

And because it's nearly 4:30 a.m. here on the West coast, I'm going to break down the early games and the later ones that I have STRONG LEANS in before sleep, then complete the others tomorrow, time permitting!!

Sports Wagering

Pacers @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 9.5 with a total of 202.5. We had that odd game about 3 weeks ago where the Bucks went into Indiana as a 2-point road favorite and won by a bucket. That line was one of the true head-scratchers of the last month or so, and I avoided it. Here, we have a line that makes more sense, in my opinion. The Bucks are probably the hottest team in the NBA -- they've won 5 in a row and 11 of 12 straight up, and their last 3 wins were at home over Boston, Cleveland (no Lebron, though), and Utah. Those are three very impressive victories. So, the question here is whether Milwaukee can get the juices flowing for a game with the pathetic Pacers of Indiana. I happen to think they will. The Bucks are rolling, and this is the final game of that 4-game homestand before Milwaukee embarks on a 3-game roadie out West. Indiana, meanwhile, has a banged up Danny Granger that is probable to play, but certainly not 100%, and they're pretty much running out the clock on 2010. They also pushed Milwaukee to the brink in that game mentioned above. I think Scott Skiles makes sure his guys take the Pacers seriously this time, and this one could be a blowout. I lean weakly to the Bucks, and weakly to the Under, as Milwaukee is on a 5-game under run, and they've been imposing a defensive will on games, which might even be more impressive than the wins themselves.

Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. I would love to find a way to back the Celtics in this game. There, I said it. Boston is about as undervalued as they're ever going to be, but the obvious concern is whether or not they're actually good enough to keep a game with a superior team like Cleveland remotely close. Boston had been dinking and doinking along for a bit, losing on the road in Milwaukee, then at home to the Grizzlies before picking up an easy winner over the hapless Pacers in their last game. The biggest issue with the Celtics, though, is not that they can't win games. Boston is still a decent team, but they just don't seem to have the firepower on offense to keep up with superb offensive clubs, or the lateral mobility on defense to stymie the better teams in the NBA, at least not like in years past. Still, with Lebron just working his way back into top form, I happen to think the Cavs are going to be a bit overvalued here, when the line does finally decide to show up. Cleveland is coming off a road win, but failed cover in Philadelphia, and they've actually covered only 1 of their last 4 games, and that was the screwball win over the Spurs. The Cavs beat Boston on the road about 2 and a half weeks ago, so there is a measure of revenge for the Celtics, and I happen to think Boston is the team with more to prove, especially in a big game setting. I think we'll see Boston getting potentially as many as 7-8 points, and that's a ton to cover in an early game. I lean Celtics, and we all know how I feel about Boston in big game situations -- they're going to try to make this game as ugly as possible. I lean Under.

Sixers @ Heat - This line is OFF.

Bobcats @ Magic - This line is OFF.

Jazz @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 204.5. This is the game of the night, from a purely basketball-enjoyment standpoint, and as evidenced by the fact that I'm breaking it down early (not Sunday morning - read the opening few paragraphs if this doesn't make sense), indicates that I do have a lean on it. That lean is to the Thunder. I realize after watching the NBA every day all season long, this lean seems obvious to the loyal blog-folk, but quickly, the reasoning: Oklahoma City is coming off a narrow 2-point win over the Nets, a trademark sign of a look-ahead. The Thunder had blown out the Hornets prior to the game with Jersey (and as has been noted by Denmarkok, the Hornets are actually a very emotional opponent for the Thunder), and so that Nets game was really the sandwich. So far, so good - we leaned Thunder in the game against New Orleans, leaned Nets in the next one, and if the sandwich completes itself with another "bun", we like the Thunder here. Interestingly, Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both questionable, and even more interestingly, the Thunder might be the toughest opponent in the League for the Jazz. Utah has lost to Oklahoma twice already this year, though both of those games were back in 2009. The Thunder are stronger now, and the Jazz are on the last game of a road trip - they're coming off a loss in Milwaukee, which can also stifle momentum. And that is why the lean is as such on the side. The total feels high, since these teams have played fairly slow games both times this year, but perhaps oddsmakers believe one or two quarters end up as shootouts - tough to say, though I still think the importance of this game is going to cause Oklahoma to bring the defense, and keep this Under.

Hornets @ Suns - Phoenix by 8.5 with a total of 211.5. I'll take "Teams That Can't Cover" for $200, please. The Hornets have lost 7 straight, ATS. The Suns have lost 3 in a row. Which team will buckle first? There really isn't any value in this game, and my feelings that the Hornets just have nothing left in the tank are being confirmed. I'm doing this write-up early, because I would recommend staying away from the side in this game. These teams have indeed met 3 times already this year, and Phoenix has taken 2 of those 3, including the most recent meeting, February 1, in New Orleans. So, you could say there's a measure of revenge, but I happen to think this line is pretty accurate. Phoenix might bounce back off the tough loss to the Lakers and blow the Hornets out by 25, or there's about a 50/50 shot Phoenix has a letdown for, say, the first half of this one, the Hornets race out to a lead, and Phoenix has to battle to win by 5 or 6. I just don't like those odds - coin flips are long term losers, and I would recommend a No-Play on the side. On the total, well, the clear problem with liking the over is that the Hornets just haven't been scoring against anyone with a player listed over 6'10" on their team. The Hornets have eclipsed 100 points just 1 time in their last 10 games, and it was against the Warriors. They've scored exactly 100 points a few times in there, but for the most part, the tiring offense of New Orleans is leading to final scores in the mid-90's. That means we'd need 115 from Phoenix to get to the total, and I don't think the Suns are going to care to hang that kind of number. I lean Under.

Wolves @ Kings

Raptors @ Blazers - Portland by 8.5 with a total of 203. This game has one glaring angle that needs to be pursued -- the Raptors complete and utterly absurd inability to function on zero sleep. I mean, there are some bad teams in the NBA, and there are some very old, rickety teams in the NBA, and none of them compares to Toronto's ineptitude in these spots. They are 3-12 ATS in back-to-back games, and Toronto's not that awful overall. They're 29-33 ATS on the season, but a good deal of those recent losses came with Chris Bosh out. Bosh or no Bosh, Toronto loses by an average of almost 12 points when they're playing back-to-back games on the road, and by over 10 in all back-to-back spots. This also happens to be the final game of their current road trip before the long flight back to Canada, where we'll see Toronto take a couple days off before hosting the Hawks. To be perfectly fair, the value isn't great on either side in this game. The line of 8.5 is probably about a half-point of line value for the Raptors, if anything, and it really makes me wonder why we're getting such a fair line. It could have something to do with the focus on College ball right now, but sometimes it's best not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I lean Portland. I know it's a revenge game for Toronto, but let's be honest, how badly do the Raptors really want this game? On the total, I'm inclined to look at the Over, since Toronto's defense on back-to-back games is just abysmal.

Vinny Del Desempleado: NBA RoundUp for 3/13

2010-03-13T06:24:00Z

I'm more than willing to admit when I'm just flat out wrong, and that was the case last night with the Suns. Obviously, the most frustrating part was that my three other strong leans on sides (Heat, Pistons, Nets) all covered, and unfortunately, from among my four strong leans, I picked the one stinker. It happens, and we move on. I only hope the avid blog readers got a winner or two out of checking for "overlap" with my strongest leans, since that would definitely make me feel better about laying a less-than-stellar Top Play on you guys, my loyal readers, and even more loyal bettors.

Enough about yesterday. When you just miss a pick, it's best to move forward, so let's crank out some write-ups on Saturday's card and see if we can't isolate a few winners.

Courtesy of last night's flop, our Paid Play run moves to 14-6-1, still DAMN good, but certainly wanted that 15th winner. We are 21-12 since the All Star Break, so still pretty tough to complain, and 34-23-2 and 46-31-2 over the long(er) term. I'm not happy with last night's loss, since I rarely feel like I just flat-out goofed on a play, but once again, the long term goals are still right there, and if I have 4 strong leans in front of me, and 3 of those 4 are going to cover, I think we're in good shape.

Sports Wagering

Magic @ Wizards - Orlando by 11.5 with a total of 195. This is an utterly screwball game, in that the Wizards had a write-in game on Thursday, played last night in Detroit, and now have to come back home to host the hottest team in the NBA, or one of the hottest at least. Three games in 3 nights for the Wizards, and unfortunately, oddsmakers are well aware of it. That's why they're getting 11.5 points here. I hate to do this to you guys, but I'm going to be at my best buddy's wedding, so write-ups today and Sunday are going to be a bit briefer than usual, especially on the games that don't interest me. Washington beat Orlando on February 2, so amazingly, the Magic have something to prove. I'm not laying 11.5 on a road team, no matter how great the situational spot, and I can tell you right out that I have no leans on the side. As far as the total is concerned, I have no idea how the Wizards are going to break 90, but I also have no idea how the Wizards can keep the Magic under 100. I think this total is pretty accurate, but I believe Orlando helps push this total Over by about a bucket. Not worth a play, not by a longshot, but it's a lean, so there it is.

Pistons @ Hawks - Atlanta by 12 with a total of 199. I get the feeling this line is high for a reason. We've talked numerous times about how bad Detroit has been in back-to-back games, especially since the All Star Break, and at 4-13-1 ATS, the Pistons are never a good team to play in fatigue spots. Detroit actually beat Atlanta in their only meeting this season, winning at home as a 6-point dog outright while outrebounding Atlanta 59-33. That is way, way out of character, as the Hawks are an impressive rebounding club, in general, and I don't think that happens again. The Pistons are coming off an easy win over the Wizards at home, so this one is going to take a fair amount of travel, and Detroit's tired jump-shooting legs are a bad bet. And as bad as the Hawks have been playing, this is the type of game where they've done just fine. The Pistons are undermanned and hugely reliant on jumpshots to succeed, and with the Pistons repeated failure to score when tired, they're ripe for the picking. I only wish the Hawks played better defense, since covering 12 points is going to be a task. I happen to think this spread is inflated, but actually accurate given the Pistons propensity for falling apart in the second half of back-to-backs, and I lean Hawks. I also happen to believe Detroit struggles to score, and if the Hawks don't force the tempo too much, this one stays Under.

Nuggets @ Grizzlies - Nuggets by 2.5 with a total of 214. Two teams on back-to-back games, but one team that has been "less bad" than the other. I choose my words carefully, and what I refer to is that the Nuggets are 5-9-2 ATS in back-to-back games, while the Grizzlies are a dead even 8-8 ATS. Advantage Memphis, there. On the side, the Grizzlies and Nuggets are both coming off wins last night, and while the Nuggets covered against the tiring Hornets, the Grizzlies allowed a backdoor cover to the Knicks in a spot where I'm sure Memphis-backers are currently pulling hair out. But Memphis has a chance to make a stink here tonight. The Nuggets are a perfectly terrible 0-7 ATS when they're a small road favorite (less than 3 points), a nice indicator that their "elite" status is garnering them too much credit in games against middling teams who have the talent and motivation to give Denver a tough time. Let's be honest here, this game means way more to the Grizzlies than the Nuggets, and Memphis has quietly rattled off 3 wins in a row, and 5 in 6 games. I happen to think Memphis wins this game; lean to the Grizz. On the total, I believe this is inflated at 214. Denver doesn't score as well on the road as they do at home, and the Grizzlies, while they've been putting up strong offensive numbers this week, they are actually an under team at home - I lean Under.

Clippers @ Spurs - This line is OFF. This is a tough night of travel for Los Angeles. They played last night in Charlotte and barely covered, then had to get from North Carolina down to Texas, and while they do get an hour in time zones, this is a 4th in 5 nights spot for the Clippers. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, the Spurs are coming home to host this one off a win last night in Minnesota, so they have a long night of travel, too, and we all know how bad the Spurs have been when tired. To San Antonio's credit, they're playing much better lately, but that complete inability to score in back-to-back games makes covering the kind of outrageously large spread we're likely to see here very, very tough. The Spurs are just 5-6 ATS in back-to-backs, which doesn't look all that bad, but they're 5-6 SU and 2-9 O/U, and those two stats give me pause. The Clippers are just 7-10-1 in back-to-back games, and 10-8 O/U, so they still stink, and the two points they normally get in the line hasn't really helped, and considering this is that trademark 4th in 5 nights fatigue game, all 4 games on the road, the Clippers look pretty darn bad. This spread is going to be hefty, but the Spurs actually won their last back-to-back game, a 102-92 victory in Memphis, so I'm not completely turned off by them. The Clippers look like they've about given up on this season, and I lean Spurs, despite a spread that's likely to be chalky enough to make you cough powder. On the total, well, I just won't back a Spurs over on a back-to-back -- not sure the under is a great play, but I certainly have to lean that way, to the Under.

Nets @ Rockets - Houston by 10 with a total of 200. This might be the game where the Nets finally fail to cover on the road. The Nets conclude a 5-game road trip here in Houston. They've gone 1-3 so far on the trip straight up, but a perfect 4-0 ATS, covering spreads that have been a bit lower than we might have expected, given the strength of the competition. But this is a different spot tonight. The Nets fought tooth and nail to try to come back and steal one from the Thunder last night, and coming from behind can be extremely exhausting. The Nets are 1-15 SU this year in back-to-backs, no surprise there, but 6-9 ATS, so just a tiny bit worse than their season ATS numbers. They have actually played decent basketball in their last few back-to-back situations, but given that after tonight's game, the Nets have 2 days off before hosting the Hawks, I'm guessing a few of those young guys are going to give effort for 24 minutes, and if the game isn't going their way, it might be time to take a nap for the second half. I don't necessarily like Houston, as they're playing their first home game off a 3-game swing through the Midwest, and Washington. It's not a terribly long road trip, but it might be a little bit of a sluggish spot for Houston, who currently sits one 10-game winning streak out of playoff contention. It's tough to tell if the Rockets are really invested in the stretch run, but as long as they've been collecting some wins, I don't think they're going to give up yet. I know the Nets have looked great lately, but off the tough game last night, I think they suffer a little bit of a snooze game tonight, and I lean Rockets. I also like the Over, since I fail to see how the Nets are going to defend well when tired, and the Rockets know they can win this game if they get out and get easy scores.

Knicks @ Mavericks - Dallas by 11 with a total of 210. Fade the Mavs at home? This one is a little tougher, just given the Knicks' situational spot. New York heads to Dallas off a 7-point loss and successful cover in Memphis last night, and the Knicks, a team predicated on offense, has been predictably terrible in back-to-back games. They are just 2-13 SU and almost as bad ATS at 5-10. They give up almost 110 points to their opponents in back-to-backs, so the Knicks already bad defense gets even worse. Though, that being said, I'm not sure it's so much that the defense gets worse, as the Knicks long rebounds get turned into fast-break buckets a little more often. So, while the Knicks score a point less when they're tired, they give up 5 more per game than when they're rested. I honestly don't much care for either team in this game, since it's important to look for a good situational spot before jumping on a bad team, and here, the Knicks aren't in a good spot at all. While backing the Mavs at home is always a brutal suggestion, I do happen to think this spread is pretty accurate, with the Knicks at risk for getting blown out. I lean Mavs, but doubtful this lean will amount to anything more than just that - a lean. The total of 210 intrigues me, since the Mavs finally played some defense in their last game, a win and failed cover against the Nets. Brendan Haywood was back in the lineup for Dallas, and the defense improved by almost 20 points. It won't be that severe every night, but with Haywood back, I'm back to enjoying Mavs Under bets.

Raptors @ Warriors - Toronto by 1.5 with a total of 227.5. This is a strange line to me. The Raptors would seem to be more than 4.5-points stronger than the Warriors, but they're just clanking game after game on the road, and it may surprise you to know that Toronto has gone just 1-7 SU in their last 8 games, and 1-6-1 ATS. That right there is a slump. They gave the Lakers a run for their money, but came back the next night and got spanked by the Kings. Now, after 2 nights to think about what went wrong, the Raptors are going up against something of a Western Conference mirror of themselves. The Warriors are, certainly, a bit more helter-skelter, and since Toronto has more talent, they don't have to operate at such a nutty pace, but the Warriors are a team that, when rested, really play their asses off on a nightly basis. I don't really like this game for either team though. Toronto is going to want to bounce back off that ugly loss up Interstate 80, and the Warriors might be in a letdown spot off the Thursday night meltdown. For the Warriors, it's all going to be about rebounding - if they can keep the Raptors to just 1 shot per possession, they can win this game, but only time will tell if Golden State can nab a rare win. I can't back the Raptors right now in their current slump, so I do lean to Golden State, but they're in a bad spot, too, so I'd be careful in this one. This total is stratospheric, but sometimes I wonder if oddsmakers set the mark this high to draw money on the under - I could certainly see both teams getting to 115, but I'd rather just avoid this volatile number.

Seasons Ending Early: NBA RoundUp for 3/12

2010-03-12T06:40:00Z

We're officially getting to that time of year where some teams are all set to mail it in, and going through these games, this is probably the greatest number of favorites I've liked in a single day since the first week of the season, and a lot of that is handicapping motivation.

As far as yesterday is concerned, the Warriors cruised for three quarters, then proceeded to get outscored 27-9 in the 4th...and covered?! That was a game I should not have watched, because we won, but winners are supposed to be fun, and there was nothing fun about watching that one. Thank goodness Don Nelson likes to get home and have his cigar and scotch, because the Blazers had the ball with 7 seconds left, up by 5, and the Warriors opted not to foul so Big Don could break out the bathrobe and get sauced.

That Golden State CLINGING winner moves our Paid Play run to 14-5-2, including the running tally of 21-11 since the All Star Break. And, as is our habit, the long term numbers now sit at 34-22-2 and 46-30-2. AND, I have one game I've got my eye on as a potential 2* play! It's not set in stone just yet, but it might very well get the upgrade, so stay tuned.

An absolute ton of basketball today, both in College and Pro, but let's do our part to make the Pro side a bit clearer!

Sports Wagering

Clippers @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. Sorry guys, Clippers have decided it's time to make a run at a top draft pick. They've lost 5 straight games, and all 5 have been miserable losses, dropping the games by 26, 17, 22, 26, and 11. I mean, come on, five straight double-digit losses? That is just sad. Does this team have any pride left at all? Mike Dunleavy is no longer a part of this mess, probably the only good decision the Clippers have made all year, so maybe there's hope for the future, but you can see in the body language that half this team just doesn't want to be playing any more, and the offseason plans are starting to creep up strong. The Bobcats, on the other side, have won 4 straight games, including, in my humble opinion, an impressive follow-up to their emotional victory over the Heat with a 15-point road win over the spiraling Sixers. This is a team on the bubble in the Eastern Conference, and we're at that time of year where the teams with motivation are the teams to back. I realize that lightning can strike, but we do need to start to apply a few new "filters" to our handicapping. Looking at the big road dog is no longer an automatic like it was 2 months ago, and instead, if you have a road team like the Clippers where 50% of the players wish they were with their kids playing video games, I would suggest starting with a look at the motivated home club that knows a "free win" is one of the most important games of the week. Charlotte knows they need to beat teams like the Clippers, and do so soundly, since their game with Orlando on Sunday won't be so easy. I lean to the Bobcats, and I lean to the Under, as I just don't see LA cracking 90 points.

Cavaliers @ Sixers - This line is OFF. Once again, one of the few unlined games that I don't mind, though word on the street is that Lebron is most likely going to give it a go in this one. Problem is, Mo Williams is probable and Antawn Jamison is doubtful, so this Cavs team is in all kinds of injury-plagued disarray. Make no mistake, they are still tough as nails, but these young guys are always going to play WAY better at home than on the road, and you can be damn sure the reason the Cavs are so good on the road is NOT because of guys like Booby Gibson. In any case, this game is extremely tough to handicap without knowing who's going to play. It's also impossible to really get a feel for where this line is going to open. I mean, you want to talk about weird - the Cavs were a 2-point home dog to the Spurs, though that line showed signs of opening with the Cavs as a 5-point home favorite. That is a positively nutty swing just from injury issues. I happen to think that if indeed Lebron returns, he's going to want to make a statement that nothing stops the Manchild. Plus, the Sixers are one of the worst home ATS wagers in the NBA, posting an 8-22 ATS mark in their own building. Cleveland has covered the last 4 games in Philadelphia in a row, and the Sixers have lost 7 of their last 8 games as they get closer and closer to being officially eliminated from postseason contention. This is another spot where you have a strong, marquee team with greater motivation, and with some backups that are looking to make an impact. I lean square to Cleveland. I lean to the Under, too, as the Cavs, without their true scorers, are going to try to out-execute opponents, and Lebron is going to keep the game at a nice pace until late, when he can take over.

Pacers @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 201. Alright, Boston, it's time for a little test. Are you truly as bad as you've looked? After winning 4 games in a row (against Detroit, Charlotte, Philly and Washington), the Celtics have lost back-to-back games to Milwaukee and Memphis, and looked worse with every passing moment in those games. They started strong against the Bucks, and continued to slow through that game, losing late, then came back the next night and stunk it up right from the get-go. So, the question here is, how will the public respond, and what sort of value is available? I believe many folks will have the initial thought that a proud team like the Celts is going to bounce back with a triple-digit winner. I'm not sure it's quite so cut-and-dry. The Pacers are coming off a rare VICTORY (yeah, I know, weird) at home against the Sixers, one of the few teams in the NBA playing worse than Indiana, and quietly the Pacers have rattled off 3 straight covers. They have also had 2 days to rest since that win, Danny Granger is returning from a 1-game suspension, and they've actually played fairly well against Boston this year. The Pacers actually beat Boston in Indiana, and are 2-0 ATS against the Celtics this season, despite really playing a poor game when they last met out East. The Pacers have nothing to play for, but there's an air of enjoyment with this team. I'm not really sure why they're still playing like it matters, but for whatever reason, this Pacers team seems to enjoy basketball, unless they fall way behind. With Granger back, and the match-up problems Indiana seems to pose, I think they keep this thing closer than most. Also, Boston has a date with the Cavaliers on Sunday, on the road, and this game has the makings of a potential look-ahead. I lean Indy. That total of 201 looks pretty reachable, but the Pacers don't run as well on the road as they do at home, and I lean Under.

Bulls @ Heat - This line is OFF. And it's going to stay that way with Derrick Rose now nursing a sprained wrist. He knows, and the Bulls know, that without a serious run, they're cooked, and with Luol Deng and Joakim Noah both hurt as well, this is going to be a very, very tough spot for Chicago. Miami has been playing better basketball of late, as Dwyane Wade can smell the playoffs, and realizes that without a good run down the stretch, the Heat's spot isn't secure. They've won 4 straight home games, though that loss in Charlotte was mixed in there, as well. Now, off an easy win over the Clippers, Miami is set to host the half-speed Bulls in the second game of a 6-game homestand. Miami knows this is a huge opportunity to get 4 or 5 wins at home and really put the pressure on other teams to climb over them to get into the playoffs, so you can bet that a "cake" game like this one isn't going to be overlooked. Unfortunately, courtesy of Chicago getting 100% embarrassed by Orlando, this line is going to open up higher than it would have yesterday (or two days ago), and no one in their right mind is going to want to bet Chicago unless they're getting a ton of points. Obviously, I'd love to find a way to back the Heat, but can Miami put the defensive clamps on an undermanned Bulls club? Miami lost in Chicago, so I suppose revenge might be in the air, but the motivation for playoffs is way bigger than all of that. Teeny, tiny lean to Miami, though this spread is going to be chalky. I like the Under, though - there's no way Miami lets the Chicago scrap-heapers get out and run and have a chance. Slow it down, force the Bulls to try to score in the half-court, and Miami could potentially hold Chicago to 75.

Knicks @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 8 with a total of 210.5. This game is a weird balance of revenge versus motivation. The Grizzlies rolled into New York and stomped the Knicks in a high-scoring affair, 120-109, and that game was just about 2 weeks ago, when Memphis was starting their current torrid road run. The Grizzlies snapped a rather extended home losing skid (8 games, I believe) with a win (and failed cover) against the Nets back on the 8th. Their most recent game was a dominant road performance in Boston, as Memphis clobbered the Celtics by 20, and we were able to cash with that one. Alright, so here's the pickle. New York is in their 2nd game of a 5-game road trip through the South, then back up through the Northeast, but the Knicks haven't looked competent for more than 1-2 games since the very early parts of 2010. They're coming off a 10-point road loss in San Antonio, and there's very little to indicate that they'll keep this game within 10. Memphis has so, so much more to play for right now, and as we talked about at great length on Wednesday, they're a great motivational play. However, New York is on revenge from that home loss, AND Memphis plays host to the Denver Nuggets tomorrow. Will the Grizzlies be able to truly focus on this lower-tier opponent, when they likely believe they can dispatch of the Knicks just like they did in New York, then redouble their efforts tomorrow against a tougher team? I wish I could say I believe they will, but I happen to think the Knicks slip just within this spread and lose by 6-7. I lean New York, but barely! On the total, New York is having all kinds of offensive issues, and 210.5 looks wildly inflated - I lean Under strongly, as this is also an "oddsmaker hint" lean.

Nets @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 11.5 with a total of 195. Still mind-boggling that we're seeing the Thunder laying almost a dozen points; what strides they've taken! I should apologize to our good buddy Denmarkok when I say that while I know the Thunder are rolling, I just feel like this game is sandwiched between two opponents that the Thunder would take much more seriously. Two days ago, Oklahoma played host to their brief lover, the Hornets, a team in a free-fall at the moment, and the Thunder beat them mercilessly. Then, on Sunday, the Thunder host the Utah Jazz, a Northwest Division rival, and a late-season proving ground type game. This game, to me, has all the makings of a 10-point Thunder win. Jersey is just finally starting to play with a little purpose, most likely trying to avoid that dubious single-digit win season that would truly immortalize these players as one of the worst collections of talent and effort, well, ever. Jersey has actually gone 3-9 in their last 12 games, which, amazingly, is far, far better than their season record, percentage-wise, and they're rolling on a 4-game ATS win streak. Only one of those 4 games was "pretty," the 20-point road win over the Knicks, but the value is still there with this team, since the other 3 covers came by a combined 4 points. Yep, 3 winners by 4 points, the ultimate sign that oddsmakers' lines on Nets games are sharp as a tack, and that by playing the value side, you're putting yourself in the driver's seat. I lean Jersey, situationally, and I lean Over, since I think the Thunder go 85% on defense in this one.

Wizards @ Pistons - Detroit by 5 with a total of 191.5. When I see this line, I think of two things. One, this line is telling me that books believe the Pistons and Wizards are equals, and two, oddsmakers think the public is going to give enough love to the Wizards to warrant a line with no clear-at-first-glance line value. Detroit has shown this season that they have what it takes to beat the Wizards, and when they're rested, as we've seen, they can actually compete. Obviously, the Rodney Stuckey situation limits Detroit's ability to get into the paint, and he was really playing well before the passing out incident. Still, the veterans left on this team are playing like they care, and though Utah came into Detroit and beat them by 11, the Jazz are a team on a mission, and I don't think we can really learn much about Detroit's level of commitment from that loss. On the other side, I happen to believe the Wizards are running out of gas. They lost to the Hawks last night by 8, at home, and that makes 5 straight losses, and 1-4 ATS mark in that same stretch. It seems like they muster the strength to really compete once every few games now, the bigger ones, then go at 90% in the others. The offseason is near, and guys like Andray Blatche have more or less locked up a starting spot going forward, so what's left? It's tanking time. The Wizards are just 5-8 ATS in back-to-back games, so they have not been strong when fatigued, though they've only played 1 back-to-back game since the All Star Break, and they covered, barely. I think Detroit's veterans show the young guys how it's done, and I lean Pistons. I've also been surprised at how Detroit's tempo has picked up lately, and that makes this total tough to read - I think we see Detroit try to win against a young team with defense, and I lean just slightly to the Under.

Nuggets @ Hornets - Denver by 4.5 with a total of 210.5. Sorry guys, it's time for the Hornets to pack it in. There are very few teams in a bigger free-fall than the Hornets right now, though certainly an argument could be made for the Clippers here, too. The question is, are we still getting any value by going against New Orleans, or have the books and public caught up with the collapse? The key, as I noted on the podcast, is that this team has realized that their season goal, of getting into the playoffs and competing in the postseason, is dead. The losses are mounting, Chris Paul didn't return to lead the way, and the guys that stepped up for a month have nothing left in the tank. Other teams are gameplanning for the up-tempo style of offense, and the Hornets aren't getting the kinds of easy shots they were when Chris Paul first went down and they decided to alter their style of play. And the worst part is that the defense has been bad, too. I happen to think this line is pretty fair, given how these teams have been handicapped against common opponents, so I don't know that a bettor would be giving up all that much by playing the Nuggets. Denver isn't really in a look-ahead spot, and they're certainly not in a letdown spot, and they've been consistently winning by 8-10 points of late. I suppose the concern is that Kenyon Martin, the player that really makes Denver "nasty", might be the key cog in making sure they stomp on lesser teams on the road late in the season. These teams have played surprisingly close games this year, but I have to believe Chris Paul was a big reason in those. And this is that time of year where making a square play might not actually be so square - I lean Nuggets. On the total, 210.5 seems very, very high, especially with the Hornets slowing offensive rhythm and the Nuggets lower scoring on the road. I lean Under.

Spurs @ Wolves - San Antonio by 5 with a total of 203. If there was a list of five teams that I just haven't had a great read on this season, the Spurs would definitely be among those 5. They were fairly predictable for the first month or two, winning at home and scoring a ton of points, then losing on the road and looking awful, but then the inconsistency set in. There is just no way to know what the heck this Spurs club is going to do from one game to the next. I'll give credit where credit's due, though - they've been playing better over the last two weeks. They've won 5 of 6 games, losing just their match with the Lebron-less Cavs, and to a bunch of backups that played way over their heads. But, to the Spurs credit, they bounced back with a home win over the Knicks. They take on the Wolves tonight and the Clippers tomorrow, so they have a couple winnable games, and two contests they desperately need to help lock up one of the lower Western Conference playoff seeds. I suppose the question isn't truly whether they win, but whether they cover, and when I don't feel that the underdog has a good chance to win the game, I have a tough time backing them. The Wolves look like they've about given up on the season, as well, and I'm not sure they deserve the 6-point swing for home court edge. San Antonio killed the Wolves when they played in Texas, which makes me think the Spurs match up pretty well with Minny, and once again guys, I lean to the square side - the Spurs just need this one more. I think San Antonio comes to play defense here, too; I like the Under.

Jazz @ Bucks - A Pick with a total of 195.5. How about this one? This actually has the makings to be one of the most interesting games on the card. The red hot Jazz and red hot Bucks going head to head to see which is hotter. Of course, it makes for an awful game to bet, but a great game to watch. This is why living rooms should have multiple TV's. Situationally, neither of these teams is in a particularly bad spot, and neither particularly good. The Bucks are coming off a wildly emotional win over the Celtics, so this is a trademark letdown spot for Milwaukee. The Jazz have a Divisional showdown coming with the Thunder in their next game, so this is something of a potential look-ahead, though with the way the Bucks have been playing, you know Utah is going to come out ready. Utah also crushed the Bucks in Salt Lake City back in late January, so I suppose there's a little revenge on the side of the Bucks. But here we go, bouncing back and forth between these two blindingly hot teams, and basically, when this situation presents itself, the best bet on this one is no bet. I happen to think the Jazz are a little too strong for Milwaukee, but the Bucks have impressed me before. I am making this game an official PASS on the side. On the total, we know Utah wants to get into an offensive game, and Milwaukee likely wants to play some strong defense, but I'm just not sure who ends up dictating how this one gets played. I'm inclined to think Utah gets this thing up around 100 apiece, and I lean Over.

Lakers @ Suns - Lakers by 1.5 with a total of 213.5. This is a series dominated by the home team, with the Lakers creaming the Suns twice in LA before the Suns came back with a strong showing in Phoenix. But wait, all of those games occurred in 2009. Could these two teams really be facing off for the first time in 2010? Yep. This is roughly the same spread we saw the last time the Lakers came to Phoenix, so you have to wonder if we'll see the same result. The Lakers are scuffling a bit, and needed a last-second jumper from Kobe just to clear the Raptors at home, and the problem has clearly been at the defensive end. The Lakers have given up at least 96 points in all 4 of these rather ugly games, including over 100 in regulation to the offensively challenged Heat, and 107 to the Raptors, who, for what it's worth, do push the pace a tad. Now, if you thought Toronto wanted to score, how about the Suns. Phoenix knows they're not going to win a battle of the bigs, since Robin Lopez and Channing Frye just simply can't compete with Bynum and Gasol. However, if the Lakers don't start defending, Phoenix is going to get whatever they want. Am I confident enough to say that the Suns win this game outright, and the Lakers lose another on the road? Boy, that is really putting the pressure on Phoenix, but I happen to think they play a solid game. The monster concern is that Phoenix hasn't played in almost a week! Are they rusty or smooth? Very tough game to handicap, though on long rest, the Suns have been pretty good, and 6 days to prepare for the Lakers is a long, long time. Lean to Phoenix, and lean to the Over, courtesy of the Lakers matador defense.

Blazers @ Kings - Portland by 2 with a total of 194. I don't like fading the Blazers on back-to-backs, since those 2 points they get in the line is basically 2 free points. They are a ridiculous 12-3 ATS in back-to-back games this year, far and away their strongest record of any "rest" situation. It's almost like they not only get 2 points in line value, but also double their team-wide focus, wreaking havoc on unsuspecting teams that expect them to come out sluggish. And it hasn't really mattered the situation, either. Coming off an overtime loss in Chicago, they crushed the Wolves; coming off a big home loss to the Thunder right before the All Star Break, they rolled into Phoenix and shot 70% for a half. It's borderline incredible, at times. For Sacramento, they're clearly playing better basketball as Jason Thompson gets healthy, and Carl Landry gets worked into the offense. He is a much, much better fit for this team than Kevin Martin, who didn't seem to be confident in the offense, and ultimately needs to take 15-20 shots a game to feel useful. Now, the Kings can play Donte Greene, Omri Casspi and Cisco Garcia at the 2 and 3 spots, and get nice defense and some offense from all three. Bottom line, Sacramento is building around Tyreke Evans, so to have complementary pieces, and some skilled big men who can do a few different things (Thompson rebounding, Hawes shooting from perimeter and blocking shots, Landry the undersized scorer) is a nice little bonus. Still, Portland is surging from that 4th quarter - they're feeling good, and I think the Blazers get it done on the back-to-back again, and they'll do it with defense, so I like the Under.

Embarrassment in Beantown: NBA RoundUp for 3/11

2010-03-11T07:01:00Z

It's so important to be judicious with the Slumpbuster, but after the way the Heat mistreated us on Tuesday, I felt it was time.

So, I loaded 'er up, busted out the Armor-All, and took the Slumpbuster for a ride...and gents, she (the Memphis Grizzlies) took that slump and smashed it to pieces.

I was out most of the afternoon and evening, so I wasn't able to witness the thrashing the Grizzlies handed to the aging Celtics, but that box score was a shimmering beacon of all that is good on Wacky Wednesday.

The win snaps a 3-game losing streak, as most of you know, and the "W" kicks the Paid Play run to 13-5-1. We're now 20-11-1 on all Premium Plays since the All Star Break, and the long-term records now stand at 33-22-2, and 45-30-2, both settled nicely right on that 60% goal.

But hey, it's late (or early, depending on your time zone), let's take a peek at the short Thursday card!

Sports Wagering

Hawks @ Wizards - This line is OFF. Though, actually, there seems to be something weird going on with the books tonight, as I'm seeing Hawks by 7, with a total of 194 at a few places, and every other book still hasn't released a line on any of the 3 games. I guess I've been out of the loop. In terms of the games occurring tonight, at least at first glance, this is not the game I'm looking at the hardest, but hey, let's see what's going on. The first thing that jumps out at me is not the Hawks 2-game losing streak, though it's safe to say they've regressed a little after a semi-hot run. The most important note in this game is that the Wizards really seem to have run out of gas. They've lost 4 in a row, and 6 of 7, and they haven't cracked the 90-point barrier in any of their last 5 games. Bottom line, you can play the best defense on the planet, but if you're only scoring 85 ppg, you're probably not winning many games. And they're not covering many, either. This team built up some clout with a hot run right after trading away Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, but the young guys can only play over their actual skill level for so long, and the ceiling is starting to cave. The Hawks have indeed smacked the Wizards twice already this year, but the discrepancy in actual ability keeps this game from being anything more than a 3rd meeting between a good team and a bad one. The Hawks are coming off two subpar performances in losses to the Heat and Knicks, but they've had 2 days off, and while they're almost certainly going to be the big public favorite, you couldn't pay me enough to back Washington right now. Small lean to Atlanta. On the total, I'm riding this wave of Washington mediocrity until they prove they can score 90 points. I lean Under.

Bulls @ Magic - This line is OFF. This is another case, actually a bit like the previous game, where one team is just out of steam. In this one, it is, again, the lesser club. The Bulls are likely going to be without the services of both Luol Deng and Joakim Noah yet again, and I just don't trust the other guys to get it done for 48 minutes. The Bulls have lost 5 games in a row, and have failed to cover in all 5. This game marks the start of a 4-game road trip, so the road doesn't get any less bumpy for the undermanned Bulls. Over on the Orlando side, things are pretty rosy -- they've won 6 games in a row and 8 of 9 (straight up), while covering 6 of those 9 games as well. The Magic had no problem following up the Sunday win over the Lakers with a cruising blowout of the lowly Clippers, and after taking yesterday off, they host Chicago on TNT. These teams have split 2 meetings this year, with both taking place in Chicago. The Bulls won the first of those 2 games, but Orlando got its revenge with a 20-point drubbing just before the All Star Break. So, I suppose the issues we have to weigh in this game are as follows: 1) Can the Bulls muster the strength to compete for 48 minutes? Lately, the answer has been a resounding "no," but with the TNT cameras trained on them, perhaps they sustain the effort a little bit longer. Will Orlando take Chicago seriously even though they beat them by 20, and the Bulls are on a rather uninspired losing skid? I think so, as the Magic are surging, and there's no reason to think they let up. And finally, how big will this spread be? I'm thinking this bad boy is going to be up over 8, maybe as high as 10, but likely somewhere in between. I hate to say it, but the Bulls might very well fold up late yet again, and I have to lean to the big square singular team name from Florida. No, not the Heat; the Magic. On the total, the Bulls have been playing zero defense, and getting into failed running matches. I wonder if the big stage wakes them up on the defensive end. I'm inclined to say that they do play a slightly slower game here, and I lean Under.

Blazers @ Warriors - This line is OFF. Again, something weird about all these lines being off, and it's really a darn shame, but so it goes. Word on the street is that Monta Ellis will make his return to the Warriors lineup tonight, and he couldn't have picked a better spot. The Warriors host a team that they've had somewhat surprising success against, at home only, over the past few years. In fact, while the Warriors got their clock cleaned up in Portland, the Warriors beat the Blazers in Oakland once already this year, and are on a 5-game winning streak against Portland in Northern California. The huge, huge point of concern on this one is that the Warriors are coming home off a long road trip. They lost all 5 games of a trip that started in south Florida, and finished up in New Orleans. So, the Warriors are going to be tired. But, this team is a little different in that most of these guys don't actually have lives set up in Oakland, or anywhere in the Bay Area. The biggest problem with teams coming home off a long road trip is that they have to try to figure out how to balance family life and chores and food with basketball, and suddenly their schedules get all discombobulated. With the Warriors, we're looking at about 6-7 D-Leaguers, who have houses in, well, Eastern Butttown, USA, so coming home is really just playing another road game, but with a crowd that cheers for you. So, there may be some letdown, but I don't think quite as severe as with a veteran club. I lean Golden State to overcome that sluggishness. On the total, well, we've had both meetings this year go Under, and it seems like Portland has been able to at least slow the tempo a little. The fact that the teams were averaging under 80 field goal attempts makes me think they're going to really have to shoot the lights out to hit an over, and I lean Under.

Slumpbuster, March 10 Edition: NBA RoundUp for 3/10

2010-03-10T04:44:00Z

REMEMBER: I WILL BE GONE FROM 1pm to midnight EST today, so plan accordingly!

Your pal Dan Bebe is not only writing in the third person, but still stewing a bit about last night's tear-jerker of a loss.

If you're looking for a way to define a bad beat -- and believe me, I'll admit when I'm flat out wrong -- but last night we covered for the first 47:57 of the game, and yet still found a way to lose.

It's just amazing how fast momentum can change, not just in sports, but also in sports wagering. Three days ago we were on top of the world, rolling along with 5 straight wins, and now suddenly we're 3 losses deep, and staring down the barrel of our first 4-game Paid Play losing streak since turning Pro.

I may be baby-faced, but this ticker definitely doesn't need to be broken by another loss like last night's. Let's break some games down, and see if we can't find an easy one to SLUMPBUST!

Sports Wagering

Bobcats @ Sixers - Charlotte by 1 with a total of 189. This game is interesting if only because we have two teams that are both on back-to-back, and both happen to be over .500 ATS when playing without rest. The Sixers are just 4-10 SU, but 8-6 ATS; the Bobcats are 8-8 SU and 11-5 ATS, easily among the best in the NBA. The issue here is that Charlotte played a thoroughly exhausting game last night against the Heat -- don't get me started again there -- and now they have to travel up to Philadelphia and try to get the energy level up on the road. Charlotte understands that every win is crucial right now if they want to get into the playoffs, and one thing you have to give them credit for is a never-die attitude. Miami led last night for 47 minutes, but Charlotte played their asses off on the defensive end, and managed to squeeze past the Heat for a monster win. I know Miami isn't the kind of opponent that teams get up for, but this game has all the trademark signs of a potential letdown. Charlotte played with insane levels of energy last night, and while the Sixers looked awful in a road loss to Indiana, they should have more in the tank tonight. The only issue is that the Sixers stink! They played a solid road game in Toronto, but you simply can't lose to the Pacers (without Granger) and expect anyone to take you seriously. This game has too many competing angles, I believe, as Charlotte's strong back-to-back ATS number is butting heads with the emotional letdown. I think this game means way more to Charlotte, and I lean to them to barely win, but this margin for error is razor thin. On the total, well, it's all about whether the Bobcats can control the tempo. The Sixers have been so bad lately that I have no confidence in their ability to score, and for that reason, I lean to the Under.

Clippers @ Heat - This line is OFF. This is another game where we have to look long and hard at motivation. The Heat are on the bubble in the Eastern Conference, but they're potentially a little down after blowing what would have been a great win in Charlotte last night. The Clippers have been blown out now in 4 consecutive games, and no team appears to have mailed in the 2010 season at this point more than the Clippers. They are, for lack of a real word, unbackable. This is a terrible spot for both teams, and while I'd love to offer one side that's superior to the other, I just can't do it. There's no fight left in the Clippers, but they could be laying a large chunk of points, which is not going to be easy to cover for a team that is going to be positively gassed. Miami is just 5-9 ATS on back-to-back games, so this isn't a strong spot for them, and the Clippers are 7-9 ATS on back-to-backs. Is this really a spot where we want to get behind either club? Based on motivation alone, I would offer a lean to the Heat, since the Clippers defense isn't going to force Miami into another 78-point night, but that awful back-to-back record for Miami is slapping us in the face. On the total, the Heat are going to try to keep this thing as slow as humanly possible, since the fewer possessions the teams play, the better the Heat's chance of winning with their better team defense. At home, I think they can do just that, and I lean Under.

Jazz @ Pistons - Utah by 6.5 with a total of 201. The Utah Jazz are coming off a steamrolling of the Chicago Bulls, just as we predicted yesterday, but failed to play. That lean, though, was just as much about how bad Chicago has been playing as it was about how strong the Jazz have been. In fact, looking at the Bulls, that team has now lost 5 straight, and it's pretty clear they need their health if they're going to win. In any case, we move forward. Utah plays in Detroit tonight, on a back-to-back against the surprisingly competitive Pistons. What we're seeing from Detroit, since the All Star Break, is pretty cut and dry. When they're rested, they're covering machines. When they're tired, they're awful. Since the Break, when the Pistons are playing on 1 or more days of rest, they're 6-2 ATS, losing only to Milwaukee at home, who was on revenge, and to Boston at home, because the Celtics love making fans in Motown cry. When the Pistons are on back-to-back games since the All Star Break, they are 0-4 ATS. So, casual fans look at Detroit, see that they're 6-6 since the Break and figure they're nothing special, when in fact, they just don't have the depth of talent to win when fatigued. Here, Detroit is rested, which means they're, in effect, a decent choice, and if it weren't for Utah's prowess on back-to-backs, this might be a play. Sadly, though, the Jazz are 8-4 ATS on no rest, and a perfect 5-0 when going away-to-away back-to-back games. Yikes. Utah looks like a team possessed, and I happen to think this spread is pretty close to accurate. Without Rodney Stuckey and Ben Wallace, the Pistons just won't have enough, and I actually think Utah covers late, but barely! On the total, Detroit is going to try to keep this thing from getting too quick, and I think it slips just Under the posted mark.

Grizzlies @ Boston - This line is OFF. First off, last I heard, Zach Randolph is probable to go, and who can blame him? The Grizzlies sit just on the outskirts of the Western Conference Playoff chase, and they basically need to win every game from here on out to pass either Portland or San Antonio, since the top six teams in the West are basically set. You really have to feel for the Grizzlies, who, at 2 games over .500 are 3.5 games out of the playoffs. Over in the East, the 8th seed is a .500 team, so while the top teams in both conferences are relatively evenly matched, the middle and bottom teams aren't even close, still. You have to be 9 games over .500 to make the playoffs in the West right now, and there are losing teams in the East that still have better than a puncher's chance. In any case, the Grizzlies head into Boston to battle a Celtics team coming home off a tough loss in Milwaukee last night. A subtle reminder: Boston is just 7-21 ATS at home, and the Grizzlies are a solid 6-1 ATS against the Atlantic division, for whatever reason a collection of teams that Memphis matches up well against. Memphis has been a machine on the road recently, winning and covering 6 straight, and while I don't know for sure if they beat the Celtics outright, they certainly could. Boston, like the Spurs, is bad when tired. They're just 5-7 ATS on back-to-back spots, and 4-8 O/U, a pretty clear indicator that they struggle to score, and try to "defend" by making the game move about as fast as a geriatric with a walker. I just wish we had a line on this one, since the power rankings should have Boston as roughly a 3-point neutral court favorite, but with the back-to-back, the Celtics might be laying only 3-4 points here. Still, I like the Grizzlies to go all out, and if we're truly capping motivation, I lean Memphis. On the total, I think Memphis is actually ready for a slugfest, and this one stays Under.

Nuggets @ Wolves - Denver by 8 with a total of 217. If there's one complaint we can have about the Denver Nuggets this year, it's that they don't seem to play well on the road, except in huge games. They need something to motivate them, is what that tells me, so either they use the home crowd to get themselves fired up, or the impact of the game, but when they have neither, I'm not convinced they can play well enough. Now, we're at that time of year where on any given day, a bad team can completely mail it in, and any good team can decide they need this one, and that's an obvious concern here. The Wolves went on a few stretches during the season where they looked decent, but boy if that team isn't made up of Al Jefferson and a cavalcade of jokers. The outrageous turnover numbers from that last game make this team awfully tough to back, though I'd wager Johnny Flynn doesn't have another 8-turnover game tonight. Interestingly, neither of these teams is in a particularly strong situational spot. The Wolves sure look bad, so there's likely some line value there, and the Nuggets may be in a tiny letdown spot off the big home win over Portland, but they've had 2 days to collect themselves and get set for this 4-game road trip. If I had to take a side, in a spot like this where nothing points to either team all that strongly, I would have to lean to the home dog, but I think this one is only a 51-53% prospect at first glance, and we'd need the public's help pushing this line up over 9 to make it a truly strong value. That total is extremely high, given the Nuggets score 10 fewer points on the road than at home, but the Wolves defense is, well, not really defense. I think this one just slips Under the mark.

Hornets @ Thunder - This line is OFF. Is this line really off because of Russell Westbrook? That seems somewhat cowardly of the books, considering I would think he only moves this line a point, but whatever. This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams this year, and the road team has won each of the previous two games. Back in early January, the Hornets pulled off a solid upset on the road as a 5-point dog, but the difference then was that Chris Paul could lead the way. Can the Hornets beat the Thunder again without him? I doubt it. Oklahoma City beet New Orleans by 4 just a few weeks ago, so some folks might argue the Hornets have revenge, but right now, this team is clearly tiring. They had lost 4 straight before beating Golden State, but again failed to cover, so that's now 5 straight ATS losers for the Hornets. Give them credit - they played very, very well when Paul went down, but all the other guys are starting to run out of gas, and as the losses mount, and the playoffs slip out of sight, Chris Paul continues to fall behind schedule in his rehab, and games just become a little tougher to really fight for. That was the run-on sentence of the blog, to be sure, but the point is there. New Orleans is no longer a good value. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hornets getting 8 points, but I happen to think the Thunder just barely clear that spread. On the total, well, the Thunder's defense has been lax lately, and the Hornets are going to want to push, push, push against a vastly superior opponent. I lean Over.

Nets @ Mavericks - Dallas by 12 with a total of 204. This game is marked by two key points -- Brendan Haywood's health, and the fact that the Mavericks can't seem to cover spreads at home. Dallas is a perfectly miserable 0-6 ATS when favored by a number this high. What that tells us, most likely, is that sharps are probably going to hit this number and knock it down overnight. The Mavs did beat the Nets by 16 on the road earlier this year, but for whatever reason they just don't defend at home. It's almost inexplicable. Even in their last game, a win, and cover, against the Timberwolves on the road, the only reason the Mavs covered was because the Wolves turned the ball over 25 times. Now, with Haywood questionable, we're expecting Dallas to cover 12 points against the Nets? Without getting into a longwinded discussion of value, since you guys know that the Nets are the value play, it's pretty safe to say that you fade the Mavs at home, and you'll be in decent shape more often than not. It's not a random trend that Dallas is 8-23 ATS in their own building, as they really don't play 6 points better at home than on the road. In fact, given that they cover just 25% of the time, roughly, at home, that is close to 6 points of value. Interestingly, based on that number, the Mavs should probably be laying the exact same points at home as on the road, if oddsmakers truly wanted to balance the results. But results be damned, books just need even money, and if that leads to the Mavs tanking, so be it. I lean Nets. I also lean Over, and I'm not taking a Mavs under until Haywood comes back.

Knicks @ Spurs - San Antonio by 8.5 with a total of 207. I would love to fade the Spurs in this one, especially with Tony Parker going down for a long stretch of time, and San Antonio coming off that tough loss in Cleveland to the Lebron-less Cavs, but I just don't know if I can pull the trigger. The Knicks are indeed coming off a win against the Hawks, but they're just not a very good road team, and they're so hit or miss these days that we really need to pick our battles. The Spurs beat the Knicks by 7 in New York earlier this year, but that doesn't tell us much, considering the game was in December. More than anything, I'm just not sure I can trust the Knicks to play all that hard against a team that isn't a true rival, and isn't one of the League's elite; not any more, at least. When it comes right down to it, the value is probably with New York, since they're catching a ton of points, but I strongly believe there are better value on the board than backing a terrible team on the road or an underachieving team laying too many points at home. The Spurs are in a worse situational spot than the Knicks, who might try to start a 5-game roadie with a decent game, so I guess with a gun to my head, I'd advise a small lean to the Knicks. The Knicks don't score as much on the road as they do at home, and the Spurs haven't allowed 100 points in their last 4 games, which is actually a nice defensive stretch for San Antonio - I lean Under.

Raptors @ Kings - Toronto by 1.5 with a total of 212. I'm actually a little surprised the Raptors are favored here, but I suppose with BOTH teams on a back-to-back, we're getting a relatively fair line. Both teams are coming off tough, hard-fought losses last night, with the Kings fighting to get even with the Blazers after trailing all night, only to lose by 7 in the final couple minutes, and Toronto actually leading the Lakers most of the evening, only to have Kobe fire yet another game-winning dagger into their hearts. I think the question for this game has to be, "which of these teams, if any, can deal with last night's heartbreak and bounce back accordingly?" On the one hand, I want to say Sacramento, since their game with Portland was likely one that they didn't think they were going to win, and then getting to play in front of the home crowd. Sacramento is just 1-4-1 ATS in back-to-back games that go from away-to-home, but for whatever reason they've played exceedingly bad teams in those spots, and are actually 3-3 SU. I know, weird...in any case, this is the rare time when Sacramento is going to be an underdog in a home conclusion to a back-to-back, and while sharps are probably going to toy with this line, Sacramento getting points seems like a pretty good deal. Toronto has redefined awful in back-to-back games, going just 3-11 ATS, including their most recent debacle in Houston (a game they lost by 24, though, admittedly, it was without Bosh). But really, this team is just bad when they're tired, and off that loss to the Lakers, they are going to be tuckered out. Lean to Sacramento. Neither of these teams plays all that differently on back-to-backs, since neither really plays defense to begin with, so I'd be hesitant before launching onto the Over, but I think we might see a 115-point first half. I happen to think this total is pretty accurate, but have a "tilt" to the Over.

Coughing It Up: NBA RoundUp for 3/9

2010-03-09T04:52:00Z

I'm already ready to forget about yesterday.

Not because it was such a disaster, though; quite the contrary. I truly feel that the Timberwolves were the right play, and watching every second of that game, I couldn't help but feel like we were one shot away from getting a cover. Unfortunately, every time the Wolves looked like they were about to make a run, Johnny Flynn threw it out of bounds.

The official scorer had the Timberwolves with 25 turnovers, but there was a steal that went down as a missed shot, and for some reason there was an offensive foul that never got tallied into the turnover column. I suppose maybe an earlier turnover was ruled, I don't know, something else, but I had this game with 27 turnovers. Either way, Minnesota did not take care of the ball, and while Dallas really didn't look all that great, the Wolves just kept aiming that six-shooter directly at their own feet and pulling the trigger.

Back-to-back losses obviously does not please me, but unfortunately, it is an inevitability of gaming. I was explaining to a friend that when everything goes "normally" in a game, that's when your strong value play is a winner. When a team commits 25/27 turnovers and has its athletic Center ejected with 3 minutes to go because of a flagrant foul type-2, your play loses. The reason I bring this up is that a LOSS on a GOOD play is ALWAYS going to look awful. Like I said, if the game went like most basketball games, it's a winner. Instead, weird things just kept happening, and it's no coincidence that weird games tend to lead to losers.

All that aside, we're still 12-4-1 over our last 17 Paid Plays, hitting 75% winners if we ignore the push! The long term records still stand at 32-21 (60%) and 44-29 (60%), so no problem there, either. Believe me, just like I imagine you guys sense it, these two losses FEEL like more than two losses, since we had really been winning almost every single night. At the end of the day, though, the two losses are just two losses, and when you put those in with all our other plays, we're still 19-10 since the All Star Break on all plays, and it's SO important to look at how the bankroll is doing not just over the last 2 days, but over the last few months. I know I like what I see, and I hope you guys feel the same way...[this paragraph is once again a link to my Pro Page].

Sports Wagering

Rockets @ Wizards - This line is OFF. This is something of a battle of the mediocre. The Rockets have run out of steam, just unable to compete every night at such a severe height disadvantage on a regular basis. The Wizards young guys seem to be a tad short on energy, as well. After stepping up, big time, right after the Wiz traded away all their moving pieces, Washington has slowed substantially. They haven't cracked the 90-point barrier in 4 straight games, and somehow managed to hold Boston to just 86 points in a cover on Sunday's ESPN afternoon tilt. Washington is in a spot to be even more fatigued than usual, coming off that emotional loss in Boston. Houston, meanwhile, is coming off something of a late meltdown in Detroit, and the Pistons came back to tie it, then win it in overtime. So, is Houston going to be extra focused in this one, coming off the disappointing loss, or is that bad momentum going to carry over? The Rockets are a tough nut to crack these days, as they've alternated ATS wins and losses over their last 7 games, which means they're due for a win. Of course, that pattern means very little other than the fact that Houston doesn't seem to be able to play two decent games in a row. Those ATS wins and losses have also been SU wins and losses, so if we think Houston is going to win, we play them. If not, we don't. I happen to think Houston is in the better situational spot, and I lean to the square side. On the total, I have to look at the Under, as Washington is having all kinds of issues getting points lately.

Clippers @ Magic - This line is OFF. This spread is going to be frighteningly large. The Clippers were 14-point dogs to Utah on back-to-back, and the Magic are better than the Jazz. Of course, no back-to-back here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see almost the exact same spread in this one that we saw in the Clippers' last game. Interesting angles in this contest, I should say. For one, the Magic are playing their first game since the Sunday morning INTENSE game with the Lakers, which had everything from near buzzer-beaters to jawing, hard fouls, etc. It was a playoff game in the regular season, and the Magic have to try to get their juices flowing for a follow-up affair with the capsizing Clippers? I don't know. But really, can anyone make a case for backing the Clippers right now? There's just no chance I play the Magic on letdown, but the Clippers are 1 blowout loss into a 5-game road trip, and have been blown out in 3 straight games, overall. There is no team in the NBA playing worse basketball than the Clipshow right now, so betting on them is damn near impossible. Still, you know damn well they're going to be getting all kinds of line value for that exact reason. I just don't get the feeling this team has any pride, and that's what makes them so tough to get behind. Still, they have my lean. On the total, both teams have been playing to the under: the Magic because they've been defending well, and the Clippers because they can't score. Because I think the Magic take a night off, I lean Over, amazingly.

Sixers @ Pacers - Indiana by 1.5 with a total of 209.5. I don't much care for this one. The Pacers are playing their first game at home off a 4-game road trip, and actually their only game in the span of 6 days. This one has the potential to be a very, very sluggish performance. But I can't quite put my finger on why the Pacers are laying points in this one. I know the Sixers are in a tailspin of their own, but given how awful the Pacers look to the public, it seems like oddsmakers could get away with bringing this thing out at a Pick, or even with the Sixers as a tiny favorite. Shows what I know, I guess. These teams have played twice this season, and the road team has won both games as an underdog, so home court hasn't played much of a role. Philly is coming off grabbing their first win in 6 games, with an impressive road showing in Toronto, and I would argue that was Philadelphia's best game since the All Star Break. Could this be a sign that the Sixers are waking up? I would say I'm far more inclined to take a flier on this one with Philadelphia than expect the Pacers to play like the game means something. Indiana is beyond help, and if they're sluggish at home, Philly is going to out-muscle them. I lean to the Sixers to win this one outright. On the total, we know both of these teams want to run, but this total is pretty high. Still, if Philly is going to win, I can't help but think they're going to do some scoring -I lean Over.

Heat @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 3 with a total of 185. The most important angle in this game is revenge. Make that double-revenge. These two teams are basically equals on the court, but Charlotte has slugged Miami in the mouth twice this season, already. In fact, Miami played its worst game all year here in Charlotte back in January, shooting just 29% from the field in an embarrassing 104-65 loss. There is no way that a proud man like Dwyane Wade doesn't want to come back into Charlotte and show the Bobcats not to mess with his Heat, at least not three times in one season. Both of these teams are starting to warm up a little bit, with Miami winning 3 in a row off a 4-game losing skid, and Charlotte winning 2 straight after dropping 5 of 6. Which team is hotter? Well, that's debatable. The Bobcats got to play a completely wiped out Lakers team that the Heat had worn out with a strong showing the night before, then beat Golden State playing its 4th game in 5 nights. The Heat also beat the Warriors, but when they weren't tired, beat the Lakers when they weren't tired, and then took care of the Hawks, and seem to have sent Atlanta on a short losing skid, as the Hawks dropped another one last night in New York. I would say that the Heat are really something of a skid-starter. Neither team is in a look-ahead, and neither team is in a letdown, so all other angles can be mostly dumped. Based on the fact that I don't think Miami gets embarrassed in Charlotte again, I lean Heat. On the total, there just isn't any value on the Under, even though both of these teams prefer a slow, plodding game. I would avoid this total, since all numbers scream to take the Under, but logic says it's not that easy.

Celtics @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 1 with a total of 188. How about this? Did any of us ever think that the Bucks would be laying points to the Celtics this year? I know I thought Milwaukee was underrated going into the season, but this is a huge surprise, and one that I couldn't be happier about. The Bucks have been the ATS monster of the year, now 40-21 ATS on the season, so really, while we did back the Bucks for 3 or 4 wins in January and February, we could have just bet them blind and cashed big time. Still, it's tough to really know when a team isn't going to relent like Milwaukee has done, and it's truly awesome how well they've played. They've gone 9-0-1 in their last 10 games ATS, and they've won 9 of 10 games straight up, as well. They're coming off a 7-point home win over the Lebron-less Cavs, and I just wonder how long it's going to be before Milwaukee loses all its value. We might be getting close, given that they're a favorite to Boston! The Celtics beat the Bucks by 9 in the teams' only previous meeting this year, failing to cover a home spread of 12.5. Can you even believe that? In December, Boston was 9.5-points Milwaukee's superior, and now we're down to 2. A 7-point swing in the power rankings for these two teams - that is just nuts. Boston is coming off a surprisingly close game with the Wizards on Sunday afternoon, so I just wonder if this is actually something of a slight letdown spot for them. Milwaukee has the revenge, and has the momentum, but we do need to continue to be careful of the Celtics, as they are 22-10 on the road SU, so they're not going to just fold in this one. Still, I lean to the freight train, Milwaukee. This total is pretty darn low, but I actually believe it's close to accurate. It's tough to find an angle, but I would lean Under, since I think both teams are going to be content with a possession-style game.

Jazz @ Bulls - Utah by 3.5 with a total of 207. This is a scary spot for both teams, in my opinion. Chicago has been getting creamed lately, so there's certainly value on their side, but in order for that value to mean anything at all, the team has to be inspired to play basketball and try to win. It just seems like the nagging injuries are mounting for the Bulls, and playing at less than 100% leaves them a buck short just about every night. They've lost 4 in a row, a streak that started with an apathetic effort in Indiana a little over a week ago. They got blasted by the Hawks, Grizzlies and Mavs, and now get to face one of the most intimidating clubs in the NBA, the largely unguardable Utah Jazz. Utah is coming off a beating of the Clippers, and this game kicks off a 4-game road trip, so you have to believe Utah is feeling decent, and probably wants to get the trip started on a strong note. I hate to say it, but I don't really see the motivation in Chicago's eyes lately to play with enough fire to compete. Utah is bigger, stronger, and probably faster, which makes them look like the easy play, and tonight I happen to think that the play that looks too easy is just that: too easy. I don't recommend playing on the Jazz, as there just isn't a great deal of value there, laying points on the road, but right now, Utah is just so much better than Chicago, and Utah is playing for that playoff position, so they want every game, and unless you can find a good reason to back the home dog, I just can't see it. I lean to the SQUARE Jazz on the side. Chicago has allowed over 100 points to their opponents in 7 straight games, which means Utah likely scores 105, but I just don't know if the Bulls can break 100 against Utah's physical defense. I think Chicago tries to get some easy buckets, and I think this total just BARELY slips Over, but not really a good value there either. And as a final note, these teams played in November, and the Jazz beat the hell out of the Bulls, but that was really too long ago to make much of it.

Kings @ Blazers - Portland by 8 with a total of 199. Alright, what do we do with this one? These teams, incredibly, have only met once this year, back in December, and the Blazers beat the Kings by 7 at home to narrowly cover a 6.5-point spread. Now, 3 months later, we have two teams playing pretty solid basketball, and both clubs coming off an ATS loss. These teams have been pretty well-handicapped by the oddsmakers over the last few years, with Sacramento squeezing within the spread about half the time, and Portland beating them senseless the other half. That, unfortunately, makes this one probably one of the worst sides on the board. This spread is certainly coverable by the Blazers, but if the Kings continue to shoot as well as they have been from the field, it's going to be tough to beat them by more than 5 or 6. Portland is certainly a better defensive team than Houston, Dallas or the Thunder (at least lately - normally, OKC is strong on defense), so now we'll see if the Kings can withstand Portland's slow tempo and constant pressure. I don't know if I can stress enough how little I like the side in this game. If I had to make a play, gun to my head situation, I would lean to the Kings to keep sneaking underneath the large spreads they get consistently on the road. On the total, I lean Over, but I happen to think that number is accurate, too. Portland has been clearing 100 regularly on offense, but I believe the tempo is going to force Sacramento just under 100 points, leading to a total very, very close to the posted mark.

Raptors @ Lakers - This line is OFF. Over the last couple weeks, the Lakers have been a downright terrible ATS play. They've gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games, and potentially 1-6-1 depending on what line you got on their recent game with the Magic on Sunday. But among the entire NBA, Toronto is about the only team that's a worse bet. The loss of Chris Bosh set this team back substantially, as they've gone 0-6-1 in their last 7 games ATS, and despite the return of Bosh in the last game, Toronto got their clock cleaned by the Sixers, in Canada no less. So, now we have a Lakers team that actually lost to this Raptors club earlier this year, coming home off an 0-3 road trip, playing their first home game in a week, but going right back out on the road for 3 more, and we have to try to figure out if the Lakers are going to cover what's sure to be a relatively hefty spread. The huge problem with this game is that every yahoo out there is going to bet the Lakers under the assumption that they absolutely have to bounce back, and there's zero chance they go on a 4-game losing streak. Well, that's probably true - I don't think the Lakers lose another, but this spread is going to be inflated because of all those reasons. The public expects Kobe to go for 80 again against the Raptors, and add revenge to that, and suddenly the Lakers are likely going to be laying double digits, even though by looking at recent games with common opponents, we can see the Lakers should be just 8-9 point home favorites in this game. I don't think this game is a standard "first game home" spot, since the Lakers play 3 more road games before their next home affair, but I do think that the letdown from Sunday, combined with the cross-country travel and line inflation creates a marginal value for the slumping Raptors. The question is, can they wake up? I hope so, because I lean Toronto. I think the Raptors force the Lakers into a quicker game than they might like, especially because of that letdown, so I lean Over on the total.

Invoking the Bounceback: NBA RoundUp for 3/8

2010-03-08T06:08:00Z

To use a line coined by the immortal comedy Dumb and Dumber, "You are one pathetic loser!"

But I kid.

Indeed, the 2-Unit play on the Thunder-Kings Under crept up over the mark with 2 minutes to go, and given the relatively quick pace of the game, the Thunder's ridiculous edge on the offensive glass, Sacramento's over-50% shooting from the field, the 4 combined technical fouls and 1 flagrant foul, I'd say we were remarkably close to pulling off a miracle. Sadly, though, it just seemed that play was not meant to be. But, as we do with all the wins, we move on.

Hell, this is no time for pity! We're still 5-1 on our last 6 Paid Plays, 12-3-1 on our last 16 Paid Plays, 19-9-1 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break, 32-20-2 on our last 54 Premium Plays, and 44-28-2 in our last 74 Premium Plays. Every single one of those records is actually over 60%, so while we did drop a bigger play last night, we're still well in the black for 2010, and today I break out the "Bounceback Scepter!"

Sports Wagering

Spurs @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. For once, I'll go ahead and give the books an "okay" on keeping the line off. Is Lebron going to play? That question not only makes this game impossible to set a line for, but also impossible to handicap. Is there anyone else in the NBA that has this kind of impact on everything we're trying to do with a game? It almost doesn't matter who is doing what and which team is in what sort of situational spot, as long as we have no idea what Lebron James is doing. Let's go ahead and handicap this game as if he's playing, since we just don't know how the Cavs can handle themselves without him, and if he takes the night off, so will we (on this game). The Spurs have quietly won 4 games in a row, covering the most recent 3. The Cavs are, well, the Cavs, so with Lebron we know we're going to get a strong effort, but we also know that they're going to be slightly overvalued. If Lebron plays, amazingly, I lean to San Antonio. If he doesn't play, I lean to the Cavs. I know that sounds nuts, but with Lebron out, the line is going to get a monster adjustment, and the non-Lebrons are going to be much stronger on their home court, trying to play pick-me-up for their fallen hero. With Lebron in there, I think the Spurs continue to try to make their trademark late-season push and probably keep this game relatively close. I hope that makes some kind of sense. This is an important game for San Antonio, but I think they lose some of their motivation with Lebron out. The total is impacted quite a bit by his presence, as well. Let's just wait and see, shall we?

Hawks @ Knicks - Atlanta by 6 with a total of 210.5. This is a strange match-up, if mostly because New York has beaten Atlanta twice this year, both times on the road. Atlanta beat New York here at Madison Square Garden in the teams' first meeting, so the home team has yet to win a game. I'll admit, I don't have a strong read on the Hawks. Atlanta won 4 in a row before losing their last game in Miami on Saturday, but they haven't been much for covering spreads. They're just 7-12 ATS in their last 19 games, and laying 6 points on the road seems like a dangerous proposition. These teams haven't met since New Year's Day, so I don't know how helpful it would be to look at the previous meetings for any reason other than the idea that the Hawks are likely going to want to win another one in MSG. The Knicks have been awful lately, winning just 2 of their last 14 games, though to our credit, we picked up a winner on one of those 2 wins. I'm honestly just not sure this is the right spot to back them, again. You guys know how much I would love to tell you to play the home dog getting 6 points, but with Atlanta presumably on some sort of revenge, and the Knicks just playing downright awful basketball, this is a game where I'd avoid the hugely public Hawks, but I'd also avoid the stinktacular Knicks. No lean on the side. The total looks pretty high considering how poorly the Knicks have performed on offense against any team with the energy to defend them, and my bigger concern is that the Hawks score 115. Still, I think Atlanta wins this one with a total just over 200, and hence, I lean to the Under.

Nets @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 9 with a total of 195.5. This line is all kinds of crazy! These teams played just 2 weeks ago, and Jersey was getting 6 points on their home court. So, have the Grizzlies really fallen that far, that the line would only move 3 points between venues? Unfortunately, it seems folks are starting to catch on that Memphis can't win at home, and Jersey is a covering machine on the road. This line is also interesting in that Memphis beat Jersey by 10 on the road in that game. So, instead of moving the line the normal 6 points between home and road venues, it was shifted only 3. I'm having a tough time wrapping my head around this line. It seems like the value that should have been on the Nets just isn't quite there. Believe me, as was the case in the game above, I would love to tell you to bet the farm on the underdog, but under most circumstances, the Nets should be getting double digits here, and I can't, for the life of me, figure out why oddsmakers feel so comfortable bringing this number out at just 9. I have to admit, this game is making me rethink my feelings on traps. If the oddsmaker's goal was to get split action on every game, either they believe the public has caught on to the Nets solid road ATS play, or that the public is fed up with betting Memphis, because there's little doubt in my mind that one week ago they could have brought this line out at 11, and it wouldn't be a problem. I WILL have a lean on the side, but I just don't have one yet. More work to be done here. For the total, Memphis has been playing a slower paced game at home, and I'm not sure if folks have truly caught on, yet. They haven't broken 100 at home since January 27th, and I know Jersey's defense isn't impressive, but Memphis just isn't scoring on their own floor. I lean Under.

Mavericks @ Timberwolves - Dallas by 7 with a total of 207. Seems like these teams are just playing each other every time you turn your head. They played just 5 days ago in Dallas, the game where the Mavericks decided to rest Jason Kidd, and Minnesota ran the ball like crazy in that one. They pushed Dallas to the limit, and lost by just a final margin of 3, 112-109. Thus, this game becomes a very interesting one - most likely the most interesting game on the card. The power rankings have remained unchanged, as the spread in the last meeting was Dallas by 13. The standard 6-point swing takes us to this game's opening number. No foul play, there. Minnesota played incredible basketball in both games at Dallas this year, but actually looked awful in Dallas's lone visit to Minnesota back in November, losing 89-77. Can the Wolves really shoot 53% for the game AGAIN against the Mavs? I know Dallas's post-All Star Break focus on defense has waned markedly over the last 6 games (Dallas has allowed over 100 points in 5 of those 6 games), and I'm just extremely curious to try to pinpoint the game, or opponent, that is going to wake Dallas up once again. They should be mostly healthy, at least from a defensive standpoint. Obviously the Mavs are going to be without the services of Jason Terry, so that hurts them a tad on offense, but they showed no ill effects in scoring 122 in Chicago. Unfortunately, because both teams have been playing to the over almost religiously there really isn't any value left on the over. I do think there remains a little value on Minnesota, since I think this team has the confidence to play with the Mavericks. They beat them once, and I think the Wolves believe they can do it again, especially if Dallas continues to take possessions off on the defensive end. I lean Minnesota, and I lean Under, since I think this line has been overadjusted.

Warriors @ Hornets - New Orleans by 7 with a total of 214.5. Are the Hornets slowing down as Chris Paul nears his return? It sure looks that way. New Orleans has lost 6 of 7 straight up, and 5 of 6 ATS. Interestingly, the fatigue seems to be setting in on the offensive end of the floor, sort of the opposite of what you'd expect. The Hornets have been trying to force the tempo, and get quick, easy shots with Paul gone, and for a while, it worked. They didn't win a ton of games, but they were competitive, consistently. Now, suddenly, the Hornets are still giving up over 100 points on a nightly basis, but can't seem to quite get there, themselves. The Warriors would seem to be the perfect opponent to put some points on the board. Golden State is in the final game of a grueling 5-day road trip, alternating covers and missed covers, based, not surprisingly, on fatigue. So, here we have to try to balance how badly the Warriors want to get home versus how much they'd like to bounce back from that loss in Charlotte. I think there's something to be said for the fact that New Orleans has won both meetings this year, and the Warriors, while shorthanded, might try to take advantage of a clearly struggling Hornets club starting to miss its superstar and maybe nab a win for some confidence. The Hornets have had 2 days to rest up, so I don't think they'll be taken by surprise here, and it makes me a little nervous about backing the Warriors -- still, this line appears somewhat inflated, since the Hornets haven't laid this sort of chalk since Paul went down, and the Warriors have shown some heart on this road trip, even if the results aren't quite there. I lean Golden State, and I lean Over, since the Warriors aren't going to win a defensive game.

Finals Rematch Sunday: NBA RoundUp for 3/7

2010-03-07T05:58:00Z

If I were to write here that I have a personal relationship with Mehmet Okur, would anyone believe me?

Yeah, I didn't think so. Still, we've backed Utah in each of their last 2 games, both ATS wins, and for the first time in over a year, Okur has put up back-to-back 20-point games. Pretty incredible timing, since the Jazz really needed it in Phoenix. They probably would have won last night without Okur's dominance, but hey, we'll take it, since it led to another notch in the "W" column!

That Paid Play winner has now given us 5 consecutive Paid Play successes, and a freakishly hot 12-2-1 Paid Play streak. I know it's silly for me to say I'm proud of that run, but I am feeling pretty fine, and I'd be lying if I didn't say I go to sleep at night with a warm feeling in my belly. Our longer term records improved to 32-19-2 and 44-27-2. Today, for lack of a better term, I just want to take one sentence to note that I'm playing a rare 2* game today, and I'll make this paragraph a link to my Pro Page for anyone that wants to jump aboard!

Some very interesting games today in the NBA, so without further ado...

Sports Wagering

Sixers @ Raptors - This line is OFF. The Sixers have been absolutely awful lately. They have lost 5 straight games, by 11, 9, 21, 19 and 10, in that order, so really, it hasn't been close. And here, we have them heading into Canada for the trademark Sunday early game against an undermanned Raptors club. Still, despite Toronto's injury concerns, the Sixers are so out to lunch right now that there's no way I can advocate a play on them. They are losing badly, home and road alike, and they are, maybe, the single most underperforming team in the NBA as of this moment. That doesn't mean I like the Raptors. In fact, without Chris Bosh, they're a team lost at sea. Toronto is just 1-4 in their last 5 games, picking up a 6-point win (and failed cover) in their last game, at home, over the Knicks. They're also dealing with some nagging injuries to Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu and Jose Calderon, so times are tough in Toronto, too. This is a battle of the mediocre right now, and I would advise avoiding it. Hell, by the time we get a line on this game, you'll only have an hour or two to decide if it's a good bet, and to me, that's rushing it. You won't have time to get a good feel for bet percentage numbers, line movement, and all the good stuff we interpret between 10am and 2pm Eastern time every day. I recommend a Pass on this game. That's right, it's not a no-lean, it's a Recommended Pass - that's how strongly I feel that this game is a total coin flip. On the total, however, we are going to get some value on the Under. Toronto isn't quite running the way they usually do, probably because they don't have their inside presence to help create space for the outside shooters. The offense stagnates, possessions take more time, and after breaking 100 points basically every night from mid-January until Bosh went down, the Raptors have cracked 100 only once in their last 5 games.

Lakers @ Magic - Orlando by 3 with a total of 195. This is the big one of the day, the ABC Sunday marquee Finals rematch and revenge day for Orlando. This game is going to be a great one to watch, with the Lakers concluding the first half of a split road trip before flying home to host Toronto. I'm disappointed by the Lakers showing in their two games on this trip. We got a betting winner with Miami on Thursday in a game that the Heat clearly wanted more, but to see the Lakers get absolutely worked over by the Bobcats was a bit of a surprise. We noted multiple times how well the Bobcats play against the Lakers, but I can honestly say I was floored that Charlotte ran away with that game. I thought for sure it would come down to the final few minutes. Unfortunately, in terms of value, I would love to find a way to back the Magic on Finals Revenge and on revenge from earlier this year, but given the fact that the Lakers have looked terrible to bettors over the last 4 days, the split on this game is probably going to be significantly closer to 50/50. In fact, this line is probably a better VALUE for the Lakers. The line indicates that these teams would be equals on a neutral court, and considering the Lakers were favored by 6 points when these teams faced in Los Angeles, this development is rather interesting to say the least. You know Kobe isn't going to back down in the big ABC game, and the real point of concern is whether guys like Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol will do their part to make this game a good one. The Lakers have covered just 1 of their last 9 games, so they've been an awful ATS wager, but certainly this game is one where both teams are going to be marquee enough to nullify the "paying a premium" issue of betting on a public darling. The Magic have been a much better bet of late, winning 6 of 7 games SU and covering 5 of their last 7 ATS. So, the question becomes, is the fact that the Lakers are, for potentially the second time all year, a better value, a more important note than the fact that the Magic might very well want this one more? I can't argue with value, so I lean Lakers. On the total, both of these clubs have been trending strong to the Under against the top teams in the NBA, and with the earlier start time and the fact that both clubs should bring a top effort, I like the second half to be very low-scoring, and I lean Under.

Rockets @ Pistons - Houston by 2 with a total of 197.5. No surprise, without Al Jefferson, the Wolves were entirely unable to exploit any kind of advantages over the Rockets. Without Jefferson, the Wolves are just a crummier version of the Rockets, to be frank. Aaron Brooks is a better Johnny Flynn, Kevin Martin is better than Corey Brewer, Battier is better than Ryan Gomes, and so on and so forth, with Luis Scola posting a very strong game last night, as well. However, the Rockets have been downright terrible this year in back-to-back situations, sitting at 8-8 SU, but just 5-11 ATS. The difference is in the defense. Houston scores and allows about 101 ppg. On back-to-back games, the Rockets actually score 103 ppg, but allow 104, so the game turns into a track meet, and if the Rockets can't stop anyone from scoring, how are they going to cover spreads at home, or win on the road when those jumpers stop falling? Believe me, I would love to back the Pistons in this game, but the Rodney Stuckey situation makes me a little bit nervous about what to expect. Stuckey was playing great basketball before he passed out, and while he's supposedly okay, I doubt he plays in this one, and even if he does, he won't be at full strength. Without Stuckey, the Pistons become even more reliant on jumpers, and if Ben Wallace misses more team, the Pistons will be without their rebounder and stopper on the inside. Detroit is also coming off that emotional game with the Cavaliers. Will they suffer a letdown? Will the non-Stuckey players band together to get their fallen comrade a win? There are a ton of questions on Detroit's side, which is a shame because we really had a good read on them before Stuckey fell over. As it stands, I think Detroit plays a decent game, but I'd love them with a healthy Rodney - I lean Pistons. I lean Over on the total if indeed the Rockets can do what they usually do and turn it into a shoot out.

Wizards @ Celtics - Boston by 13 with a total of 193.5. Well this line isn't really worth touching, the side at the very least. As I've said a million times, when I'm presented with a double-digit line, I need some strong angles on one of the two teams to even consider a play. As was the case last night with the Jazz, we had a very strong fatigue angle, but what do we really have in this one? We have Washington's young players clearly tiring after a superb run when the stars were traded away. It happens every year. A team sells off their best player, or two, the youngsters realize they can play ultra hard for 2-3 weeks to secure a job for next year, then for all those days they played their hearts out and had to get IV fluids, there are an equal number of days where those players are going to need to go half-speed to keep from crumping on the court. I don't like Washington, but I don't much care for Boston, either. There is almost no value on Boston's side, as this line is colossal, given neither team is on a back-to-back, and there really aren't any strong angles to consider. Washington is technically on double-revenge in this game, but that doesn't mean anything for all these former backups playing big minutes on the Wizards now. Boston is a total clunker of a home team, ATS, but they've won, and covered 3 games in a row, and I'm not going to advise backing a team with no value, but I'm also not going to advise getting in the way of Boston potentially rattling off a few covers in a row. No leans on the side. Washington has stopped scoring, bottom line. If Boston plays at 90%, they will hold the Wizards under 90 points. I lean Under.

Thunder @ Kings - Oklahoma City by 3.5 with a total of 202.5. Dangerous spot for both teams. The Thunder are either STILL not getting the respect they deserve, or this game is a spot to be awfully careful. I would think the latter might be true. These teams played less than a week ago in Oklahoma, so it's not like we don't have some other data to go on. The Thunder were 10.5-point home favorites to the Kings and won that game by just 6, courtesy of a very impressive game from the Kings. In fact, Sacramento has quietly covered 5 games in a row, starting with a straight up home win over Utah that seemed to renew the team's joy in playing basketball. They followed that up with a home win over the Clippers, and 3 straight covers (going 1-2 SU) in Oklahoma, Houston and Dallas. Now, the Kings return home for this revenge game. I just don't know if Sacramento can possibly play any better than they did in Oklahoma City, and they still lost that game by 6. The Thunder have been an ATS monster all season, though it seems somewhat like they might have actually finally become overvalued, going 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games. I suppose a I'm a little concerned that there's been a 7-point line adjustment between games. Is that extra point a result of the Kings getting better, or revenge being precalculated into the line? Believe it or not, that ONE point of line movement is what is keeping me from making a stronger prediction. The Kings have played the Thunder pretty well this year, if we exclude the meeting way back on October 28, covering both games since, and actually winning the home game in November. I have a very small lean to the Kings to keep their ATS streak rolling along. On the total, I have a nice lean to the Under, as both teams shot over 50% in the last meeting, which sent the total way over, and yet, here we are, less than a week later, with the exact same total as before.

Blazers @ Nuggets - Denver by 6 with a total of 206. The late-night ESPN showdown in the Mile High City, and really should be a great game. The Blazers are playing their best basketball in months, having won (and covered) 5 of their last 6 games, with 4 of those decisive wins coming on the road. It's no coincidence that Portland got good again when Brandon Roy got healthy. I suppose that's the ultimate obvious statement, but it needed to be said. Now, I hear Marcus Camby might be missing a game or two, and Portland does need their one defensive-minded big man to help rebound and help slow down the wild and woolly Nuggets. Surprisingly, these teams haven't met since December, the Christmas Evening game that Portland won, at home, in front of an absolutely NUTS Rose Garden. Denver beat Portland in Oregon at the very start of the season, but it's been so long since these teams have seen one another that things are just bound to be a little different. This line doesn't make a ton of sense to me, though. I'll turn to recent games with a common opponent -- the Blazers were basically listed as 4-points better than the Pacers on a neutral court, and the Nuggest were listed as 8 points better. So, shouldn't Denver be at least a 7-point favorite in this one? Are oddsmakers really saying that the games these teams played with Indiana made Portland 1 point stronger in power rankings? Or, are oddsmakers doing the unthinkable, and actually just setting a perfectly fair line? My guess is the latter, which also means we can work off of situational and match-up angles to find a winner. I love how the Blazers have been playing on the road, but Denver is scary at home. I happen to lean to the square side and I think Denver covers by 1-2 points. This total looks eerily low, considering Denver is 19-13 O/U at home, and the only recent time Denver played a home game that didn't clear 206 was their final game before the All Star Break, and that was a screwy game to say the least. I don't like to be so square, but I lean Over, as I really don't see Portland slowing the tempo all that successfully.

True Value: NBA RoundUp for 3/6

2010-03-06T06:39:00Z

It was a squeeze, but we got another one!

I will admit, I was unable (for better or worse) to watch even one second of our Paid Play last night on the Nets +11, but I was indeed able to check the final score upon arriving home and saw that we got the narrow cover. And while it might look like dumb luck, anyone who read the write-up of last night's game knows perfectly well that based on power rankings the Magic SHOULD have been a 9-point favorite, but thanks to 2 points of line value, we played the Nets. And just like clockwork, the game went exactly as oddsmakers expected, and folks, when the books are giving you hints, it's in your best interest to listen.

That win moves our Paid Play run to an almost unbelievable 11-2-1 on the last 14, and 4-0 the last 4 days! We are 18-8-1 since the All Star Break, and still have sweet longer term runs of 31-19-2 and 43-27-2. The NBA season is putting all kinds of opportunities out there, and we are officially taking advantage of them. Not surprisingly, this paragraph is one giant link to my Pro Page, so those that are not on this freight train can punch their ticket!

Down to business.

Sports Wagering

Warriors @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 10.5 with a total of 204. From a line value standpoint, I'm not sure I'm all that pleased with laying 10.5 points, and you guys know how infrequently I look at the home team in a spot like this, but Golden State is just in an awful spot. They are playing their 4th game of a 5-game road trip, and on top of that, this is also their 4th game in 5 nights. That's tough for an average team, but how about a team with only 8 bodies, and only 1-2 of those 8 with real NBA experience. We saw what happened to the Warriors when they went into Orlando on the back end of a back-to-back after hanging with Miami the previous night. This game has all the makings of the exact same outcome, only the Warriors should be even more tired. Charlotte beat the Warriors on the West coast by outrebounding them by 20, so maybe there's a little revenge here, but the Warriors just seem far too fatigued and undersized to really make a legitimate push at beating the Bobcats. I do have a concern with backing Charlotte, though, and that comes from last night's game. They are on back-to-back, as well, and while they're 10-5 ATS on back-to-back games, they're coming off a 15-point win over the Lakers. If that doesn't ruin whatever value you might have had as a team, I don't know what does. I really want to find a way to fade the pooped out, undersized, undermanned Warriors, but I'm just not sure the situational angles add up -- TINY lean to Charlotte. The total on this game looks pretty low, and I do happen to think the Warriors struggle to score, but how many points can Charlotte put up? Another TINY lean, this time to the Under.

Hawks @ Heat - Miami by 1.5 with a total of 188. I'm not a huge fan of this one, either. Miami looks like they might be turning a corner just a little bit, but I'm rarely a fan of backing a team off a win over the Lakers. Miami and LA went to overtime on Thursday before the Heat prevailed, so again, there is almost no faster way to blow all your value than by beating the Lakers straight up. I know the Hawks are on a back-to-back, coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game with the Warriors, and boasting a fairly even record in these spots (8-7 ATS), but Atlanta has been showing some nice muscle lately, especially in tougher games. This has been an interesting series this season, and tonight will be the 4th and final meeting. The Hawks pummeled the Heat back in November, but Miami has dominated both meetings in 2010, most recently locking down the Hawks on February 10 to the tune of a 92-74 road victory. The revenge angle makes me think that if we're getting any value at all in this game, it's going to be on the side of Atlanta. Can the Heat really play all that well off the huge game on Thursday? The monster overtime win would seem to make Miami a team ripe for a letdown. The Hawks on back-to-back might look like a bad proposition to some, but I happen to think they're the side to look at in this one. The question is really whether Atlanta wasted too much energy scoring 127 points against the Warriors. I'm inclined to believe they've got something left in the tank, and I have a weak lean to the Hawks. The total is tough to call, I believe, as we know Miami prefers a slow, grinder of a game, but if we like the Hawks to win, I think we also have to like the Hawks to score a few points, and lean to the Over.

Nets @ Knicks - New York by 8 with a total of 209.5. Something feels off about this line. Can the Knicks really be regarded in such high esteem to rank them as 8-point favorites to the Nets? I mean, I realize Jersey is as bad as they come, but is New York truly 5 points better on a neutral court? This hasn't really been that lopsided of a series this year. New York won the first 2 meetings before Jersey took the third match, though all 3 of those games happened back in 2009. Something just doesn't add up. The Knicks were just a 4-point favorite the last time they hosted the Nets, and while they've clearly improved since then, New York, I feel, should not be laying 8 points to anything with 5 players and matching jerseys. So, the question is whether this line is high for a reason unbeknownst to us, for now, or just hyper-inflated because the Knicks have the name recognition. The lines these teams got in recent games against the Cavaliers happen to agree with this line of 8 points, but again, that number just looks wildly high -- trust me, I did the Math on that Cleveland stuff. Alright, so is either team in a particularly good or bad spot? Well, the Nets barely covered last night against the Magic, and are coming off games with Cleveland and Orlando in rapid succession, so they might be a little more tired than the Knicks, who lost in Toronto against a lower-impact opponent. Still, New York has to deal with customs to get home, they'll be getting less sleep, and New York is playing their 6th game in 9 days, so they might be a little fatigued. I can't be quite certain, though we should also note that Jersey has covered 6 straight on the road, where all the bonus points they get work wonders when they lose by 5-8 points. I lean Nets. The total is a little confusing, with both teams on back-to-back spots (both teams are bad ATS back-to-back, so that's a wash, but...), Jersey is a huge under team when tired and New York is a mild over team. I happen to think this one features more intensity than people would expect, and I lean Under.

Rockets @ Wolves - Houston by 3.5 with a total of 209.5. Sometimes the mojo is working on a game, and sometimes it just isn't, and I happen to believe this game is a very difficult one to handicap. The Wolves are all over the place, though they are coming off a nice run-n-gun offensive show in Dallas. The one thing that makes a little sense is that Minnesota is extremely streaky. This team very rarely wins a game, then doesn't follow it up with another ATS "W". Same deal with losses. So, I do, to a certain degree, like that Minnesota comes home with a little confidence, feeling a little better about themselves than they did when they got creamed by Oklahoma City and Portland. Unfortunately, Al Jefferson is out for one more game because of suspension. Houston has won both games in this series this year, and without Jefferson, the Wolves lose their huge advantage in the middle. Houston is notoriously undersized, but if the Wolves can't exploit their size edge, and subsequent potential edge on the glass, this is going to be a tall order. I don't trust the Rockets either, though. Houston bounces between wins and losses, almost without any real order. They beat Toronto by 24, then lost to the Kings outright at home. This should be a pretty low-impact road trip through Minnesota, Detroit and Washington, but time will tell if Houston can get their act together. No leans on the sides for me here, but I do like the Over, as I happen to believe Minnesota continues to push the pace, and Houston shouldn't have any problem with that.

Mavericks @ Bulls - Dallas by 1.5 with a total of 200. Dallas has won 10 games in a row. Chicago has looked terrible, losing 3 straight (at Indiana, and hosting the Hawks and Grizzlies). This is one of those spots where perception would seem to indicate that Dallas dominates this game. Unfortunately, I can't really advocate backing either side. The value is most definitely on Chicago's side of the boat, as the public is going to come hot and heavy on the Mavericks, but Dallas is playing their 5th game in 7 nights, so fatigue might be slowly setting in, and they've failed to cover their last 2 contests for obvious reasons. The Mavericks are not playing good defense again. I don't know if it's a lack of focus or fatigue (or both), but the Mavs have allowed opponents to break 100 points in 4 of the last 5 games, and while they've won all 5 of those games, as mentioned, they have not been covering against teams that get a line value edge -- that is, the weak competition. Today, they play a team that's going to get a little more attention than the Kings, if only because Chicago has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but the Bulls are so banged up right now that it's simply tough to know if they can play hard for a full 48 minutes. Chicago looked great against Memphis for 3 quarters, and even though the Grizzlies were playing their 7th game in 10 days, they were the team that came storming back in the 4th when they should have been tired. I have a tiny lean to Chicago on the side, since I think Derrick Rose has a monster game, but my stronger lean is to the Over, since both teams have been struggling on defense over the last week, and I think we can still find a little value in it.

Spurs @ Grizzlies - San Antonio by 1.5 with a total of 199. This game intrigues me, I will admit. Some games I break down and wish they weren't happening, but not this bad boy. We've got the can't-win-at-home Grizzlies against the surging-but-old Spurs in a back-to-back spot. So far, these teams have met twice this season, and the home team has won (and covered) both games. The Grizzlies beat the Spurs by 6 at home in mid-January, and 2 weeks later, the Spurs came right back and stomped Memphis by 7. Memphis has been all kinds of crazy lately, winning and covering their last 6 road games, while simultaneously losing their last 7 straight home games, covering just 1 of those 7. The Spurs, meanwhile, have won 3 in a row for the first time in quite a while, though they covered just 2 of those 3 games. San Antonio is just 4-6 ATS on back-to-backs, so they haven't had many of them this season, and I'm curious to see if those old bones can handle a game against a fiery Grizzlies team that is going to be hungrier than ever to get a win at home. Memphis knows they need EVERY game if they're going to make a push for the playoffs, but I just can't quite decide if I think the pressure of playing at home is mounting with every home loss, or if the desire for a win and the adrenaline boost that accompanies that desire is doubling with every loss. It's a tough call, to be sure. I happen to believe Memphis finally gets a home win tonight, as I really feel like this team has shown a ton of resiliency in a few tough, fatiguing road games, and I think this one means more to the Grizz. I also HAVE to look at the Under, since we know how San Antonio slows things down on back-to-back situations (2-8 O/U), and one of those 8 overs came this most recent Monday, when they were coming off a game at noon the day before...not even a real back-to-back, in my opinion.

Cavaliers @ Bucks - Cleveland by 3.5 with a total of 196. The Bucks are covering machines, but today they get their test. I actually don't think we're getting a great value in this game on Milwaukee, believe it or not. I know the Cavaliers are the big dog, and they're going to garner the public attention, but I believe this line is fairly accurate. Perhaps the Bucks really go to town and play out of their minds in this one, but looking at a common opponent reveals that this line is pretty close to where it should be. Both of these teams hosted the Hornets a little under 2 weeks ago. So, with some leeway for the potential power ranking changes over the last 2 weeks, the Cavs were laying 11.5 points to the Hornets, and the Bucks were laying 6 (though New Orleans was on back-to-back in that one, so for all intents and purposes, the Bucks were laying 4). What this means is that Cleveland was ranked as an 8.5-point favorite over New Orleans on a neutral court, and the Bucks were a 1-point favorite. That translates to the Cavs being 7.5-points better than Milwaukee, and thus, they should be laying 4.5 today. Now, Milwaukee has been getting better and better with every game over the last 2 weeks, so let's say they improved by 1 to 1.5-points. That still means that today's line falls right in that window. I know most people's inclination is going to be to jump on the Bucks because they're the public fade, but I'd be a little less quick on the draw. Milwaukee is indeed on double-revenge, and this is sort of a "proving ground" game for them, and on top of that, the Bucks are a League-best 12-3 ATS on back-to-back games while the Cavs are just 6-9 ATS, and for THOSE reasons, the Bucks are the lean, but NOT because they're a public fade. The Cavs have played to low totals against Divisional opponents, and I'm on board with that trend, since I think it stems from both teams playing hard in those games. Neither of these teams has any strong O/U trends for back-to-back spots, so I lean Under.

Clippers @ Jazz - Utah by 13.5 with a total of 206. This is something of a rough spot for the Clippers. They start a violent road trip here in the altitude on the second half of a back-to-back, and from here, they head to Orlando, Miami, Charlotte and San Antonio. The Clippers, really, would be lucky to come out of this road trip with one win, I believe. Still, this is a ton of points. Oddsmakers know the Clippers are going to be in a tough spot, traveling late after getting pummeled by the Thunder last night at home, and the line has been adjusting accordingly. This is also, amazingly, a bit of a revenge game for Utah, as the Clippers knocked them off less than a week ago, 108-104, in a game where the Jazz just didn't show up until late, and couldn't quite pull off the comeback. Unfortunately, Utah isn't going to be terribly excited to face the Clippers again, a team they've seen twice in the last month already, but I do feel like there are some angles here that might work to our advantage. You guys all know that with games of spreads this large, I like to start with the giant dog and try to talk myself out of it, and on this game, I'm having some mild success. The Jazz aren't a good value, let's not kid ourselves, but the Clippers are just awful right now. Since that win over Utah, they've been blown out twice, both times at home, and they're not showing any signs of fighting back. This might be that point in the season where the Clip show starts to mail it in. On the other side, the Jazz are right in the thick of things for home court until the Western Conference Finals, just 2 games back of Dallas for 2nd place, and 1.5-games back of Denver for 3rd. Every win is huge for Utah, since they know how important that 7th game can be, especially against a powerhouse home team like the Nuggets. Also, the 4th seed means you get the Lakers in the 2nd round, and no one wants that. Lean to Utah. The total has been adjusted a bit from the last game, but if indeed the Clippers run into that wall in the 3rd quarter, I believe they'll struggle to break 90 - I lean Under.

Pacers @ Suns - Phoenix by 12.5 with a total of 221. This is another monster spread, and for whatever reason (maybe that pop tart I ate was funky?), I'm liking the huge favorite again. Indiana has been downright awful on their current road trip, losing by 23 to both the Lakers and Blazers, before last night finding the courage to find back against the Nuggets and lose by just 8. Of course, all of that has taken place in just 4 days, which means today, that's right, it's a 4th-in-5 spot for the flailing Pacers. This is also the final game of a road trip for Indiana, generally a spot where teams get their hearts set on home. Tough, tough game if you're a Pacer. It isn't all roses for Phoenix, though, as they're coming off that 4th quarter meltdown against Utah. It wasn't surprising, really, as Phoenix was on a 4th-in-5 situation back on Thursday, and a 7th-in-10, so for them to run out of gas wasn't nuts. Still, getting just one day off to mull over the loss and having to get right back at it, well, we might see some sluggishness. Plus, Phoenix has FIVE days off after this game to get ready for a battle royale with the Lakers. Is it a look-ahead to the Lakers? I doubt it. But it could be a look-ahead to the time off. I still think the Pacers sleepwalk their way through this game, but that line is awfully large. TINY, and I mean tiny lean to the Suns, but there are better values on the board. Phoenix is going to score 110 points, at least. The question in my mind is whether the Pacers can break 100. Honestly, I'm just not sure. There's better value with the Under, so we'll lean that direction.

Chewtoys: NBA RoundUp for 3/5

2010-03-05T07:31:00Z

SWEET BABY RAY!

After all the favorites covered last week on TNT, the underdogs stormed back this week, and we picked up TWO MORE WINNERS in the process!

In the early game, we had our Free Play on the Miami Heat +5.5, and it took overtime to get the job done, but Miami brought all the energy and shot the ball extremely well in a huge, huge win for an Eastern Conference bubble team.

In the late game, we backed the Jazz +2, another monster value play, and after looking confused and lost for 36 minutes, Utah played some defense in the 4th quarter, and outscored Phoenix by 19 points en route to an 8-point outright victory.

As far as records go, things are well beyond our goals right now, and while these numbers won't keep up long term, as long as we're nailing everything in sight, I won't change a thing. The short term runs improve to 10-2-1 on Paid Plays, and 17-8-1 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break. The long term runs improve to 30-19-2 and 42-27-2, both of those now up over 60%, so we are officially making money hand over fist. Yes, hand over fist. And as is my custom, this paragraph is a fat link to my Pro Page, so more folks that read the blog can get involved with my Top Play.

A strange Friday NBA card on tap, let's break this bad boy down!

Sports Wagering

Bucks @ Wizards - Milwaukee by 4.5 with a total of 190.5. This is the second half of a home-and-home between the Bucks and Wizards, which began on Wednesday with Milwaukee taking the home game 100-87 as a 10.5-point favorite. The absolute most interesting factor in this game, in my opinion, is that the line has been adjusted just the standard 6-points for a home court flip. Usually in these home-and-home, the team that lost the first game will receive some sort of revenge compensation in the line. I believe that the mere fact that this game does NOT is a strong indicator of how much respect the Bucks are getting right now. I think it's also worth noting that that game was actually double-revenge for the Bucks. Does that mean this game is still ranked as a single-revenge? I don't think it quite works that way. I happen to believe Washington is going to play a fairly strong game, but they've only covered 1 of their last 4 games, and I'm also a little worried that Washington's young guys are hitting a wall. The Bucks are a great shooting team, and they can also play some defense -- Scott Skiles deserves Coach of the Year, as a side note -- and even though Washington is going to want to prove they're not as bad as Milwaukee made them look on Wednesday, my lean to Washington is still a relatively weak one. It's also worth noting that the Bucks play in Cleveland tomorrow, so there is the potential for a little look-ahead. My lean is to the Wizards, though. The total was adjusted slightly from the last game, and I think this one has a nice chance of going Over, if indeed Washington can increase the tempo a little bit.

Lakers @ Bobcats - Lakers by 3.5 with a total of 190.5. This line is probably going to shift just a bit, courtesy of the Lakers overtime loss to the Heat last night. I was hoping the Lakers would win and fail to cover for this game's sake, but seeing as how the Lakers lost on the early big TNT game, the value of betting LA is going to decrease quite substantially. Think of it this way. This line is probably going to dip to 2.5 or 3 by morning, so the Lakers are going to look like a pretty easy road favorite to bet. The "public fade" would clearly be a play on the Bobcats, but my strong fear is that the Lakers will come up with a gutsy performance at the exact moment when you least suspect it. Still, without letting the gut get too involved in the decision-making, and sticking more with the math and situational angles, this is a great spot for the Bobcats. Charlotte is looking downright horrible right now, coming off blowing a lead at home against the Mavs, and then getting crushed in Boston. Charlotte is just 3-10 ATS in the second half of the season, so suddenly they became overvalued. Still, no bad team is going to get overvalued in a game against the Lakers, so we don't have to worry about that part of the equation. Our more important issues revolve around deciding if the Bobcats will finally wake up for a game, or if they'll continue to sleepwalk after the All Star Break. We all know how good Charlotte has been against the Lakers over the last couple years, going 9-2 ATS since their creation, but I believe this is going to be the lowest spread of any Lakers/Bobcats game in the franchise's short history. That should be an indicator that oddsmakers strongly believe Charlotte brings their A-game. I lean to the Bobcats. I also think that Charlotte keeps this thing low-scoring, trying to get a game decided in the high-80's to low-90's - weak lean to the Under.

Pistons @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 13 with a total of 199. This spread really says that oddsmakers either think the public is going to be on Cleveland at a 90% clip, or that they think Detroit isn't going to have any pride. I happen to think this spread is a slap in the face to Detroit, though I have no idea if anyone on the Pistons watches spreads. There is zero doubt in my mind that this number comes down -- Detroit isn't in any sort of pronounced bad situational spot, and the Cavs aren't in any pronounced good spot. In fact, it seems as though because the Cavs have had great success against Detroit over the last couple years, including a 4-game sweep in the playoffs last year in a wildly lopsided series, this line has become inflated to a ridiculous degree. For what it's worth, the Cavs are indeed playing some strong basketball right now. They've won 5 straight, covering the most recent 4 of those wins. Their last 2 games included a 31-point win over the Knicks and a 19-point road win over the Nets, so they're covering huge spreads. I suppose our goal here is going to be to determine if the line is this high for a reason, or this is just standard Lebron-style inflation. It stands to reason that if we look at games against a common opponent (the Knicks), we might be able to tell better what's going on. The Pistons, on a back-to-back, were 4.5-point dogs to New York, so that has them ranked at roughly New York's equal, maybe a half point better. The Knicks were an 11-point dog in Cleveland, which puts the Cavs as 8-points superior on a neutral court. When, then, is the line in this one set as if the Cavs are a 10-point neutral court favorite over the Pistons? Something's fishy. I happen to lean Pistons to play a hard game, though without Ben Wallace their rebounding suffers badly, and I lean Under, as I think the Cavs might get near 100, but I tend to doubt Detroit will, too.

Knicks @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani are ALL questionable for this one, which makes it damn near impossible for us to handicap. There are simply too many iterations of lineup for Toronto for us to go through all the layers on each possible permutation of a semi-healthy Raptor lineup. So, with all apologies to fans of these teams, this is going to be among my shortest write-ups to date. These teams have played twice, and Toronto has won both games, but if they're not healthy, we might see the Knicks come in and try to steal one in Canada. There you have it; if Toronto is playing ill, I lean Knicks. I like the Over on the total, since it feels like both teams are just going to get out and play an And-1 type of game. Very little defense, guys just firing away.

Celtics @ Sixers - Boston by 6 with a total of 197.5. Obviously, the first thing to do in a game like this one is to try to find a reason to take the home dog. This spread is right in that mid-zone where it's going to take a nice effort by the Celtics to cover the number, and if Philadelphia plays with any sort of pride, they've got a nice shot. Unfortunately, they haven't been playing with any pride. The Sixers have been crushed in their last 4 consecutive games, and the Celtics have picked up back-to-back wins and covers, so it's not the world's best spot to fade Boston. They've been stronger on the road than at home this year, anyway. And, on top of that, Philadelphia has been an awful home team ATS at just 8-20. This will be the 4th and final meeting between these two teams this season, and while Boston killed Philly in the first meeting, the next two occurred close to one another in November and December, and the two teams split those two games, both in Boston. So, Philly does have home revenge here, but I just don't think I can trust them right now. They were saying all the right things heading into their last game against the Hawks, and then got steamrolled. Bottom line, you take the home team in a game like this one if the angles tell you to do so, but there just aren't many that make me think the Sixers are ready to turn the corner. No leans on the side. This total is rather high for a Celtics game, and the only other recent Boston games with a total this high came against Denver, New York and Sacramento, 3 teams that play zero defense. If you think the Sixers can make a few buckets, you have to like the Over.

Warriors @ Hawks - Atlanta by 13 with a total of 215. Another huge spread where you have to ask yourself if either team is in a particularly good (or bad) situational spot. And really, believe it or not, the Hawks are in a better spot than the Warriors. Yes, we know Golden State is sending a team out there of Stephen Curry and 7 D-Leaguers, but I'm talking about angles beyond that. Most interestingly, the Hawks had a HUGE meltdown in Golden State not long ago, losing by 4 a game that they led by almost 20 in the 3rd quarter. I highly doubt Atlanta lets that happen again. The Hawks play tomorrow in Miami, but that's not really a look-ahead spot, and because that game with the Warriors is so fresh, I just don't know how Atlanta doesn't hammer this one home. The Hawks are severely outmuscling teams over the last week or so, winning 5 of their last 6, and losing just that OT game to the Mavs. Atlanta's rebounding has been phenomenal, outrebounding their last two opponents by 24 and 17. You simply cannot beat a big, strong team like the Hawks if you're giving them the kinds of 2nd chance opportunities they've been getting, and the Warriors are going to really struggle to clean the glass. I hate to say it, but I just don't think Golden State has anything in the tank, and I have to lean Atlanta, despite the lack of value. I lean to the Under, as well, once again because of the rebounding and strength of the Hawks - I just don't believe the Warriors can score like they need, or want to.

Magic @ Nets - Orlando by 10.5 with a total of 196.5. The parade of ugly games continues with this one, though I guess just about any game that involves the Nets in any capacity is an ugly one. Lately, New Jersey, at home, is an awful bet. I don't care who tells you otherwise, Jersey has no home court advantage, and they got crushed yet again in their last home game, this time by the heavily favored Cavaliers. Yes, it always looks sweet to get 10 points at home, but please do take the time to look at how the Nets have performed on their own court lately. They have lost and failed to cover their last 5 consecutive home games, all the while doing a great job of covering on the road. And we went into excruciating detail on why the Nets do not deserve the 3 points they get for playing at home. On top of that, Jersey hasn't shot over 40% against the Magic in EITHER of the two previous meetings this year. The Magic can really shut down the Nets, most likely because Dwight Howard virtually neutralizes the one advantage Jersey usually has, with Brook Lopez in the paint. I simply can't advocate backing the Nets, no matter how many points they're getting right now, especially at home, and especially against a Magic team that appears to be pretty locked in, even against weak opponents. HOWEVER, and this is the BIG NOTE - the Magic host the Lakers on Sunday's ABC game, so there is the potential for a bit of a look-ahead here. Is it strong enough of an angle to give us a Jersey play? This one is hovering in the balance, but I suppose I have a WEAK lean to the Nets. If Orlando is indeed looking ahead, I think this one's got a nice shot of going Over, since the defense will suffer first.

Kings @ Mavericks - This line is OFF. I suppose because Jason Kidd was rested in Dallas's last game, oddsmakers are being extra careful here? Not really sure, but I can tell you that by this point in the card, I'm getting a little bugged with these lopsided games. We can expect Dallas to be a double-digit favorite here, but I wonder if the Mavericks are taking their foot off the gas after that outstanding run of games, and covers. In their last game, Dallas slipped back into a bad old habit of trying to outscore their opponent instead of trying to D-up and lock them down. Dallas has beaten Sacramento twice this year, by just 2 points at home back in November, then by 8 on the road in January. The double-revenge angle is viable, though, again, I'm not sure how much a young, bad team like the Kings actually expects to get any revenge. If anything, they're working hard to compete on a nightly basis, and coming off a nice outright win in Houston. Sacramento has quietly covered 4 games in a row, so they're not a terrible bet, and I find it hard to believe Dallas takes this game seriously -- if they can win with 90% effort, that's probably what we'll get. I mean, what incentive do the Mavs have to blow a team out, and can they really blow out the Kings? I don't know. I lean Sacramento to keep staying within the spread, and I think the Kings again force the Mavs into playing a little quicker than they want, and I just don't see how the Kings can win this game unless they push it into a running match. I lean to the Over.

Pacers @ Nuggets - Denver by 10.5 with a total of 218. Indiana has been slaughtered thus far on their current road trip, losing by 23 in LA, and then by 23 again in Portland. Will they lose by 23 for a third consecutive night? I'm inclined to think the Pacers finally put together a half-decent game, but I'm just not sure that still keeps them in single digits. To be perfectly honest, this spread almost feels low, I don't know why. I would love to see Indiana compete, but man if they're not outclassed everywhere you look. The issue here is value, and there just isn't really any on Denver's side. The Nuggets are coming off a blowout win over the Thunder, so covering 10.5 against the hapless Pacers should be easy, right? Well, right now, Indiana could not LOOK any worse, and the Nuggets look pretty darn good, at least just checking the last game. Denver also beat Indiana by 18 on the road back in November. Basically, as much as Denver completely dominates Indiana in every aspect on paper, they still have to play the game, and the Nuggets have a pretty big game with Portland coming up on Sunday night. I'm not saying it's a look-ahead spot, but I just find it hard to believe this is a night Denver really gets amped. They are coming off games with the Lakers, Suns and Thunder, and now suddenly they have to find the strength and adrenaline to battle the Pacers? Based on motivation alone, I would have to give a look to the big road dog. And if you like the Pacers, you likely also think some points are going to be scored - lean Over.

Hornets @ Spurs - San Antonio by 8 with a total of 197. This looks like too many points at first glance. Let's see what second and third glances bring. For the Spurs, this is going to be two consecutive games against the Hornets. It's very interesting for one team to be having a home-and-home, but the other team not. The Hornets played the Grizzlies at home in between their games with the Spurs, and lost on a final 2-minute meltdown and a concurrent Memphis surge. In fact, the Hornets have lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS after a stretch where they covered 6 of 7. Such is the ebb and flow of the NBA power rankings. The Hornets rattled off a number of covers, but the backups are starting to get a little fatigued in Chris Paul's absence, and they're suddenly unable to finish strong. That last game with the Spurs had some weird angles, though, that this one doesn't have. New Orleans was playing its 5th game in 7 nights, was coming off a tough game with the Mavs that ran extremely late on Sunday night, then had to come back and play earlier the next day back at home. The Spurs were on a back-to-back, so still a little tired, but their Sunday game was in the early morning, so they had over 24 hours to recover and travel, putting them decidedly more rested than the Hornets. The Spurs are going to be more rested again in this one, rolling on 3 days of rest, and while they're an old team, they're actually only 1-4 ATS in these spots. I lean Hornets to get a little revenge. This total is pretty spot on, but I think the Hornets get out and run a little more, so I lean Over again.

Thunder @ Clippers - Oklahoma City by 5 with a total of 201. I can tell you right now, I'm desperately hoping for a Clippers miracle. Why? For Saturday. The Clippers head from home into the altitude in Utah, and if they're coming in there off a win, they'll look better and won't get dogged in the line quite as hard. If the Thunder lay waste to the Clippers like everyone else has been doing, well, the value loses a little something. This isn't a particularly good or bad situational spot for either team. The Thunder are coming off getting killed in Denver's altitude, but they'd be rolling otherwise. The Clippers are playing off getting killed by Phoenix at home, but actually beat Utah at home before that game. The Clippers seem to be pretty hit or miss, which makes them not only a tough game to pick for the late-night bailout, but also a tough team to fade, since they might show up and decide it's one of those nights they give a crap. There aren't many motivational angles here, as these teams met twice back in November, and each team won the road game. Plus, the Thunder are a totally different team now, mentally, than they were then, the Clippers are fairly different physically, and it's basically impossible to draw comparisons. No leans on the side, though again, I'll be rooting for a strong, strong game from the Clip show. On the total, this number is 15 points higher than each of the two previous meetings, but again, those were almost 4 months ago. Both teams have been playing some overs lately, so I'm inclined to think this number is inflated. I'd look at the Under.

Vince Carter's Cousin: NBA RoundUp for 3/4

2010-03-04T05:47:00Z

Two years ago I uttered the following phrase:

"It will be a cold day in Hell before I ever give props to Tracy McGrady."

Last night, Hell got a light breeze, as our Paid Play on the Knicks came in strong, thanks in large part to T-Mac's potent offensive numbers against the tired, undermanned Pistons. So, Tracy, nice job.

Also worth noting, I think, is our recent run of success on games involving the Pistons. Maybe living in Ann Arbor is starting to make an impact, because we've placed 4 wagers on games involving Detroit over the last week-plus, and we're a perfect 4-0. Go figure.

We dropped our Free Play on the Dallas-Minnesota Under, as the late scratch of Jason Kidd turned the Mavericks back into pre-All Star Break, hectic, discombobulated Dallas, instead of the new, execute-first Dallas. If I had known Kidd was a potential DNP, that game would have never made the card -- his court savvy has played an enormous role in Dallas's recent surge of confidence and their ability to win in the half-court. Oh well, burned by injury; not much we can do about that.

Overall, we picked up a small profit on the day yet again! The Knicks winner moved our Paid Play run to a borderline ridiculous 9-2-1, and all Premium Plays since the All Star Break sit at 15-8. The longer term records are just as fine as always, at 28-19-2 and 40-27-2 over the last 49 and 69 plays, respectively. And, once again, this paragraph is a mega-link to my Pro Page, so you guys can easily take a break from blogging to grab a Top Play, if you so desire.

Big TNT Thursday tonight, so let's have at it!

Sports Wagering

Grizzlies @ Bulls - This line is OFF. This line is presumably off because of Luol Deng, who is supposedly "probable" for this one. This is going to be an awfully tough spot for the Grizzlies, though Memphis just seems to have all systems chugging along when they're on the road. The Grizz picked up an improbable victory last night in New Orleans despite trailing by 7 points very late. Some hustle, some ball, and a Zach Randolph BANK-three got them back in the game, and Memphis took the lead late on a layup -- way too easy if you're the Hornets. Of course, all that energy expended last night is going to have to get recovered somewhere, and when you're not getting any sleep, it's awfully tough to catch up on Z's. Still, I'm not sure I can advocate going against the Grizzlies JUST based on fatigue, since they've actually won their last 3 back-to-backs to improve to 7-8 ATS in those spots. It's funny, too. Memphis was one of the worst in the League on back-to-back games before this 3-game back-to-back winning streak, going just 1-11 SU and just 4-8 ATS. So, what changed? Well, interestingly, Memphis LOST the first game of all 3 of those back-to-backs, so it was almost like they were annoyed by the failure the previous night. Memphis is suddenly all over the map, winning consistently on the road and tanking at home. These teams haven't played this year, so there isn't any previous meeting to go off, which makes this game all that much more difficult to predict. What we do have is a Bulls team coming off a tired, lackluster, INJURED effort against the Hawks, and the Grizzlies coming off an emotional divisional road win. I can't help but think Memphis might suffer a slight letdown, but can Chicago get the juices flowing and keep one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA off the glass? They certainly couldn't stop the Hawks. I am inclined to think the Bulls are in a nice spot to appear weak and fragile, while the Grizzlies look like they're dominating, but this line is going to do a lot to convince me one way or the other. I lean Bulls without knowing the status of Deng, but if any more bodies are missing for the Bulls, I would just take a pass. On the total, the Bulls have been playing terrible defense, and the lack of rebounding has a fair amount to do with it. The Grizzlies give up a lot of points on back-to-backs, and I can't help but lean a little bit to the Over.

Lakers @ Heat - Los Angeles by 4 with a total of 187.5. I actually believe that the fact that the Lakers WEREN'T looking ahead to this game in their Tuesday throttling of the Pacers is a good sign for the Heat. Miami may have been looking ahead, as they barely squeezed past the Warriors on that very same night, and the combination of those two factors makes me think the Heat have been gearing up for this early TNT match with the defending champs. The Heat are just 12-17 ATS at home this year, so that won't inspire your confidence, but they're 17-15 ATS as an underdog, and a solid 21-15 ATS against high-scoring opponents. But really, these ATS trends don't mean much. We can't really interpret how the Heat play against high-scoring foes, if only because they tend to play a slower style of game, and have a knack for keeping games close when they look like they might get socked upside the head. The more important note on this game comes from the land of revenge. As you may recall, the Heat paid a visit to Southern California way back on December 4th, and appeared to have that game won when Kobe pulled a Kobe and banked in a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to spoil Dwyade Wade's day and deal the Heat a loss they never should have had to suffer. I don't know what it is about this matchup, but the Heat play the Lakers TOUGH, as tough as any team in the NBA. They have covered 3 straight, but the real key is that all 3 of those games have been decided by a combined 6 points. Honestly, if Miami makes a few free throws in LA back in December, they win that game going away! I know this line looks extremely low, and the Lakers must appear to be an extremely sexy play, but I would offer a word or two of caution. One of my favorite ways to see how far a line is away from the true power ranking is to look at games against common opponents. Both of these teams played the Dallas Mavericks recently, so let's peer at those games. First, the Heat -- Miami played at Dallas on February 20th WITHOUT Wade, and was getting 10.5 points. We can logically assume that line would have been right around 7.5 if Wade was playing, maybe as low as 7 since there are very few guys that can move the line as much as Wade. Both teams were playing a back-to-back, so we can disregard that factor. Thus, Dallas would be ranked as a 4.5 point favorite on a neutral court. The Lakers played in Dallas 4 days later, themselves on a back-to-back, and were a 2-point underdog. Without the back-to-back, it's safe to assume this game would have been close to a pick. Okay, so the Lakers are 7 points better on a neutral court, which matches up with this TNT game. But WAIT, the Heat covered against the Mavs, and the Lakers didn't, which inherently means those lines were wrong! We can see right there that while it's never perfectly transitive, the Heat should have been less than a 10.5-point underdog, and the Lakers should have been more than 2. We can see right there that this line, Heat getting 4, is value on Miami. I lean to Wade and company. This total is just insanely low, which makes me think we have to at least look at the Under, since books wouldn't put a Lakers line in the 180's unless they absolutely had to. The Lakers have only had one total all season long in the 180's, and it went Under. I think they may be due for a follow-up.

Jazz @ Suns - Phoenix by 1 with a total of 213. This game has the potential to be all kinds of enjoyable. From a betting standpoint, it may somewhat tough, but let's see what we can find. The Jazz are coming off an outright loss to the Clippers in LA in a game where it just didn't look like Utah wanted to be there. I'm not sure if the Jazz are slipping a little, since they've lost back-to-back road games in Sacramento and in SoCal. In fact, they've lost 3 of 5, though the third loss was a home game against the Hawks where Utah was coming off a very, very late game on the West coast and had to fly back into the altitude. The problem certainly hasn't been offense. The Jazz have broken 100 in 4 of those 5 games, but they're not stopping anyone. They have allowed over 100 in 4 of 5 games, as well; that, coming after a stretch where they held 6 straight teams under 100 points, and won 5 of those 6 games straight up. This is only the second meeting this year between these two teams, and Utah won the only meeting, in Utah, 124-115, soaring over the posted total of 221.5. First, that makes this a revenge spot for Phoenix. Second, this total is 8 points lower than that one despite a combined scoring mark of 239 points. I don't think this game is as cut-and-dry as "play the under", since the first meeting was almost 2 months ago, but I do think it says a great deal about the Suns newfound commitment on the defensive end that a Jazz/Suns game would have the lowest posted total since December of 2008. Utah also happens to be on a run of 5 straight Overs, and with every one, the impending run of Unders gets closer and closer. On the Phoenix side, the Suns are coming off beating the living snot out of the Clippers, yet again. When you talk about a team that just OWNS another club, that is the case with Phoenix. The Suns shot over 50% from long range last night, and scored over 30 points in 3 of the 4 quarters. The odds of Phoenix duplicating that sort of performance on a back-to-back is a little on the low side. Phoenix is 6-9 ATS on back-to-back games, and actually 7-8 O/U, so they do have a tendency to slow down and get out of their normal rhythm. I realize the Suns are on revenge, and they're playing inspired ball, but every other angle points to the Jazz to bounce back off that ugly game in LA. I lean Utah. On the total, it's Under or nothing -- there's no value left in the over, not with Phoenix coming off this crazy game with the Clippers, and the Jazz on their run of overs. I'm not saying the Under is the play, but the value on the over is gone. Lean to the Under.

Compton's Finest: NBA RoundUp for 3/3

2010-03-03T07:14:00Z

I can honestly say that last night's easy winner on the Detroit-Boston Over was one of the most gratifying since I turned Pro, and not just because a Tayshaun Prince three pointer sparked a 20-point final minute of action.

Nothing, and I mean nothing feels better than the bounceback winner! We had our ULTRA hot streak snapped with Monday's loser on the Chicago Bulls, but the sweet victory last night got us right back on the winning side of the road, moving our Paid Play run to 8-2-1 the last 11. We are 14-7-1 on all Premium Plays since the All Star Break, and 27-18-2 and 39-26-2 in the longer term. And, once again, this paragraph is a monster link to my Pro Page, so we can all be on these winning plays together.

Big Wednesday card coming up, and today's blog took many hours to put together, so please do take a gander and hit me with some thoughts!

Sports Wagering

Warriors @ Magic - Orlando by 14.5 with a total of 214.5. My heavens, this is a terribly large spread. I can honestly say that I see zero reason to back a team laying almost 15 points. I apologize to those who want to throw their money at the superior club, but the possibilities for a back door are just too numerous. Believe me, I realize that the Warriors are barely fielding a team, but they were able to hang with the Heat, and even outscored Miami 28-24 in the 4th quarter when the weak, tired team with no bench SHOULD have been buckling. The key for Golden State is to make sure that whatever they do, they do NOT allow the opponent to slow the game. As long as both teams are running, and expending energy only on the offensive end, Golden State can usually muster enough to fight through. However, once the Warriors are forced to slow down and grind through screens, box out, rotate on defense, and all those fundamental basketball concepts that Don Nelson has scrapped for his globetrotters, then they're in trouble. Obviously, the Magic are better than the Heat. But the Warriors are actually 9-4 ATS on back-to-backs for the reasons stated above. They manage to get into an ugly game, and make the opponent play down to them, which also means the 2 bonus points on the spread because of the back-to-back are probably more points than the Warriors should actually get. There is line value with Golden State here, and I lean Warriors. I don't much care for the total, but if I had to take a side, I'd have to go Under, since the Magic, being one of the NBA's elite teams, draw public money on the side and the over, and that inherently means we're at least getting some value on the other side. And yes, the Magic beat the Warriors 126-118 in Oakland earlier this year with a posted mark of 222, so oddsmakers think Golden State might struggle to score against this big, strong opponent.

Sixers @ Hawks - Atlanta by 9 with a total of 198. The first thought in any game where a team is getting 9 points is to try to find a way to back that team, but I'm just not sure that any level of convincing can get me to embrace the Sixers. That's not to say I like the Hawks, because I certainly don't, but Philadelphia is not in any kind of "good" situational spot to deserve our money. Philadelphia is coming off a pathetic home effort against the Magic, and they've lost 6 of their last 8 games straight up. They've only covered 1 of the 5 losses, so they're just 3-5 ATS in that stretch, too. They host the Boston Celtics on Friday, so I don't know what level of motivation we're going to get in this one, especially considering these teams haven't faced one another since late November. Yes, Atlanta beat the living piss out of Philadelphia in the City of Brotherly Love back in that game, but can we legitimately claim that the Sixers are upset about it? I doubt it. Philly is playing without Elton Brand, so they're losing a strong interior presence, and the whole Allen Iverson fiasco has to be wearing on a team of mostly younger players. The Hawks are coming off a very strong rebounding effort against the banged-up Bulls, but can they really duplicate that tonight? No leans on the side for me. The total is interesting in that the Sixers can really try to push the pace, and this number, 198, is the exact same as the last time they met, over 3 months ago, which went under. I'm not convinced of either side, but with both teams playing some high scoring games, I actually like the Under, but only just a tad.

Cavaliers @ Nets - Cleveland by 10.5 with a total of 197. I really don't much like this match-up, as I feel like the Nets have zero home court advantage, but the line is just too many points to lay with any road team, ever. I really wish there was some strong angle on either side of this game that would point us towards a team with an edge, but there just isn't. Obviously, the team getting 10.5 points is the place you have to start; that's just common sense. However, a quick look at the Nets recent stretch of games shows that they're 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 5-0-1 or a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games, depending on what line you got. No, this doesn't tell us that the Nets are GOOD on the road! All it tells us is that the 2,500 fans that "pack" the Nets home arena on a nightly basis are not providing a home court advantage, so when the line swings 3 points to a neutral court, and 3 more points to the Nets abode, those are 6 points the Nets desperately need back. If we look at the last 3 home losses, by 10 to the Grizzlies, 9 to the Blazers and 4 to the Wizards, the Nets were underdogs of 6, 8 and 1 in those 3 games. That means they missed the cover by 4, 1 and 3 in those contests, which basically tells us that if the Nets are treated like they're playing at a neutral site, those 3 losses would be 1 win, 1 loss and 1 push - how's that for fun with numbers. And that's how it has to be. We have to assume that, for now, the Nets are 3 points outside the value at home, then compute from there. Against low and mid-tier teams, they're a great home fade, but against a marquee club like Cleveland, 1 to 2 of those 3 points are coming back because of public perception. Thus, I hate the sides in this game and have no lean. As for the total, though, books adjusted hard on the previous meeting, which saw a combined 201 points on a posted total of 189. I happen to believe the books overcompensated. Both teams shot over 50% in that game, and I don't think Jersey can pull that feat off again. I lean Under.

Bobcats @ Celtics - This line is OFF. This series has been absolutely, positively dominated by the Celtics so far this year, and they have beaten the Bobcats so thoroughly that I needed to check Charlotte's dental records to make sure it was actually them. Boston beat them 92-59 in Boston back in the season's first week, and then went into Charlotte in early December and beat 'em 108-90. So, the first point is that Charlotte is going to have some revenge. I know it was a while back, but you can't get trounced that hard by a team and not have some extra energy when you finally get a chance to tackle them again. I also happen to LIKE the fact that this game is being played in Boston, because the Celtics are sure to be a favorite, which means they not only need to win, but they need to win without needing a last second bucket. Boston is just 4-7 ATS on back-to-back situations, so they have not been strong, and a lot of that can be traced back to the fact that they score just 94.8 ppg in these spots, while averaging almost 99 ppg on the season, so those back-to-back, slow, clunkers are dragging that season average down quite a bit. Boston is 6-20 ATS at home, so that's not going to help the situation, and they're just 8-19 ATS against teams with a losing record, which the Bobcats just barely claim at 28-30. I simply have to lean to Charlotte. I also think Boston's methodical, somewhat boring pace in back-to-back games will force this one Under whatever low total we're dealt.

Pistons @ Knicks - New York by 3.5 with a total of 204.5. This game has some interesting angles going on, and MOST of them point to the Knicks, but not necessarily all. The first angle is the obvious one, with the Knicks coming off an hideous performance in Cleveland, getting down by close to 40 points before finally losing that game 124-93. It doesn't get a whole lot uglier than that! You guys know how I feel about teams coming off huge losses, and this game fits that criteria in that it wasn't just a big loss, but it was a loss that a lot of people saw or heard about because it came against Lebron. It's a loss that makes the betting public lose all confidence in a team, and that's the kind I like. Another interesting angle is that the Pistons are on back-to-back yet AGAIN. They are playing just a ton of games these days, playing on the 23rd, 24th, 26th, 27th, 2nd and now the 3rd. That's 6 games in 9 days, basically the most brutal stretch of basketball that any team will play all season. We have seen lately, that the Pistons are not very strong on back-to-back spots, losing all 3 back-to-back games since the All Star Break, and failing to cover all 3. Two of those three have gone under the posted total, too, though Detroit is generally a fairly break even O/U team in back-to-back spots. The final angle favoring New York is that Detroit is coming off a tough game with the Celtics, and teams on back-to-back after playing high emotion games generally suffer a slight letdown. There is one angle favoring Detroit, though, and that's revenge. The Knicks are 2-1 against the Pistons this year, and if Detroit wants to split the season series, they need this road game. Still, I think New York gets it done, as I see the Knicks winning by 5-7. The total on this game is also higher than any previous posted total for these 2 teams this season, and higher than any final total, as well. This looks like another oddsmaker hint, and I lean Over.

Wizards @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 10 with a total of 193.5. I mostly steer clear of these double-digit spreads, as you guys have seen. There are just better values on the board. Still, we can at least take a look at the angles and trends and see if anything stands out as odd. These are two of the hottest teams that most folks didn't capitalize on. The Wizards ran off 6 straight covers, lost 2, but got back on the winning side with a nice road win over the lowly Nets. The Bucks have just been unbelievably good since mid-January, and I know I've used that phrasing quite often, but today I'm going to do the grunt work and find out exactly how amazing Milwaukee has been. Milwaukee is 17-3-1 in their last 21 games! Took me a minute, but I counted them up, and courtesy of that unreal ATS streak, the Bucks are 37-21 ATS on the season. Now, believe it or not, the Bucks are on double-revenge in this game. Washington beat Milwaukee twice back in December, though let's be fair, that was a vastly different Wizards team, so it's tough to call it revenge of any kind. Unfortunately, it's an angle like that one that makes it almost impossible for me to back the road team, here. Milwaukee actually has the motivational edge, but 10 is WAY too many points for the Bucks to be laying. They're playing great basketball, but they're not strong enough to be double-digit'ing teams. No leans on the side. The total intrigues me, as I think the Bucks actually prefer a slower game, if they can get their opponent to play that way. The Wizards are athletic, but they're not scorers, and I could really see this one being decided in the low 90's. I lean Under.

Grizzlies @ Hornets - New Orleans by 2 with a total of 203. Did you ever think we'd see the Hornets as a 2 point home favorite over the Grizzlies this year with Chris Paul on the shelf? I know I didn't, but here we are. The Hornets are playing better basketball than Memphis, dictating the tempo in almost every game they play, and clearly have more confidence than a Grizzlies team that is really struggling trying to make that leap into playoff contention. Interestingly, though, Memphis has been pretty tough on the road lately, while laying egg after egg at home. It's inexplicable, really, unless we argue that the Grizzlies get a little performance anxiety at home, lumping too much pressure on themselves to succeed and instead playing tight and confused. Then, they go on the road, play loose, and get the win. This is going to be a test, though, as the Grizzlies last 3 road wins have come against Jersey, Washington and New York, the true dregs of the NBA. On the other side, the Hornets have failed to cover 2 straight for the first time since February 3rd and 5th, and I wonder if they're tiring just a bit. Darren Collison is playing HUGE minutes these days, and they've done a great job of keeping their collective head above water with Paul out. It's really a wonder that New Orleans is 31-30; very impressive. In terms of meetings this year, the Hornets beat Memphis twice in the span of 10 days in late January. So, New Orleans has some ownage on Memphis, and I just wonder if the double-revenge is more important than the relative hotness of both teams. I think this is going to be a close game, which makes me hesitant to take a side, but I have to like Hornets to get another win over the Grizz. Also, believe it or not, I like the Under, since I think the Hornets might have tapped out on that "hey, we're a fast break team now" value on overs.

Wolves @ Mavericks - Dallas by 13.5 with a total of 201.5. This isn't a particularly good or bad spot for either team, which means what class? That's right - start with the huge dog, and see if there are any good reasons to switch over to the fave. Well, Minnesota is coming off getting clobbered in Oklahoma City, then getting clobbered again at home by the Blazers. So, I'm hesitant to back Minnesota, since they happen to be a pretty streaky team, usually winning and losing in bunches. After an ATS win, the Wolves are 17-14 ATS, and after a loss they are 13-16 ATS, indications that the Wolves' value tends to fluctuate in small waves depending on how hot they are. And right now, unfortunately, they're in a funk. The strong defense from both the Thunder and Blazers have worn down the Wolves, and with Minnesota in a 4 in 5 nights spot, they never got the car started. Now, they got 3 days of rest to catch up on some sleep, but that hasn't really changed much for the Wolves this year. They're just 2-3 ATS on 3+ nights of rest, and again I turn to the note that they play in waves, and when they're down, you're playing with fire trying to predict when they get it turned around. Final note here is that Minnesota actually beat Dallas outright here in Dallas back on February 5th atoning for a home loss to the Mavs way back in November. Let's be frank, 13.5 points is too many to lay, so we're not playing the Mavs, but with the Wolves in a deep slump, I'm not sure we can back Minnesota either, especially with Al Jefferson suspended for a DUI. Once again guys, no real lean on the side. The total of just 201 is intriguing, as Dallas has been playing much better defense, the Wolves are struggling to score, and despite the last meeting hitting 225 on a posted mark of 205, this total came out lower. I lean Under.

Kings @ Rockets - This line is OFF. I honestly can't believe oddsmakers are unwilling to put a line out on a game because of Trevor Ariza, but whatever. Houston is coming off killing the Bosh-less, and hapless, Toronto Raptors, and after this game with the Kings, they go out for 3 road games. Houston is in a decent spot, in that they're relatively well-rested, but at the same time, they're just not that good of a team. They got smaller, believe it or not, in that trade for Kevin Martin, and while wins over San Antonio and Toronto might look somewhat impressive, I am far from convinced that the Rockets should be taken seriously. In addition, the Kings have been rock solid ATS against Houston, going 8-1 ATS over the last 3 years against the Rockets. Maybe it's the Rick Adelman factor, and the guys in Sacramento know what to expect, but Sacramento just gears up to play Houston tough, and to me, they're a very tough trigger to pull. Sacramento, on the other hand, actually looks like a decent ATS play right now. They played like complete and utter manure for about 2 solid months, but I strongly believe dumping Kevin Martin on their opponent in this one was the best move they could have possibly made. Picking up Carl Landry was nice, as well, as his odd-size skills make him a very tough guard. He should probably be a 6th man, but Sactown takes what Sactown can get. Unfortunately, the Kings are a miserable 4-9 ATS on back-to-backs, so this is definitely a fatigue spot, especially coming off a hard-fought 6-point loss (and cover) in Oklahoma. I think Sacramento will be getting a nice chunk of points, so I do lean in their direction, but there's almost no chance I back a team running at less than 33% covers on back-to-backs. This one has the chance to be pretty high-scoring, as Houston will always try to run, and I think the exes on both sides are going to try to get theirs - I lean slightly to the Over.

Thunder @ Nuggets - Denver by 6 with a total of 207. This line doesn't make a ton of sense to me. The Thunder are on a back-to-back and traveling into altitude (albeit, not from the West Coast, so they might actually get a half-decent night of rest), yet the Nuggets are just 6 point favorites. Very rarely do we see a situation where the marquee team appears to be the value, and if this was a road game, I'd be extra suspicious, but I wonder if the Thunder have truly "arrived." Could it be that the Nuggets are only 1 point better than the Thunder on a neutral court? Something feels odd about this one. These teams have played twice this season, with both home teams taking care of business. That being said, the Nuggets played two ugly, ugly games, and still managed to come away with a home win somehow. Both teams get to the foul line and make their free throws, so no huge advantage there, though the Nuggets might get to the line just a little more often. I suppose this line is a little more attractive than usual because Denver is coming off losses to both the Lakers and Suns, but they are a completely different team at home than on the road, and while the Thunder are rolling along to the tune of 3 straight wins (2 blowouts in there), I wonder if oddsmakers are underestimating how tough this spot is going to be for the Thunder. I hate to say it, but I lean to the Nuggets at home. More than the Nuggets, though, I like the Over. The Nuggets are coming off a 35-point under in Phoenix, so the public is going to be disenchanted with the Over, at least a little more than usual. The real reason this total looks so interesting, though, is that the posted mark of 207 is actually 12 and 22 points higher than the two previous actual totals in this series. What's the line doing so high? That's right, the oddsmaker hint returns.

Pacers @ Blazers - Portland by 9 with a total of 201.5. This is a bad spot for Indiana, and potentially a worse spot for Portland. We may be looking at a lesser of two evils situation. The Pacers are playing a back-to-back, and are 8-8 ATS in such spots, but at 26-32 are still one of the weakest ATS plays in the East. They are coming off getting blown out by the Lakers, falling behind by as many as 30 before losing by the eventual margin of 23 points. There's something to be said for Indiana getting crushed on the first half of this back-to-back, though. It creates some positive line value, as this will likely shift to Portland by 9.5 before we really get an idea of which side people are betting just based on Indiana's performance in LA last night. Also, the Pacers are 4-1 ATS when the back-to-backs are both on the road, kind of a weird stat and not one I can truly explain with such a small sample size. Portland beat Indiana by 11 back in December in the Midwest, so I'm not sure it's a revenge spot, truly, but certainly this isn't a team the Blazers are going to take all that seriously, especially in this trademark "first game home" spot. The Blazers are coming home off a wildly successful 4-1 road trip (SU and ATS), but those 5 road games came in the span of 7 days. That seems like it should have drained the life out of Portland, but it didn't, somehow. Unfortunately for Portland, it always catches up eventually, and when a team gets home off a long road trip and settles back into family life, that's when a little nap can quickly turn into a 2-day mental lapse. This is a bad spot for Portland, who plays Denver in their next game, and I lean Pacers. This total might look pretty high, but the Blazers broke 100 in all 5 road games, and I see no reason why they won't do it again against the Pacers pathetic defense. I suppose my concern is that Portland tries to slow things down at home -- they are very much an "under" team at home, and an "over" team on the road, so I wouldn't go nuts with this total. I happen to think it's pretty accurate, especially if the Pacers lay down offensively. No lean on the total.

Suns @ Clippers - Phoenix by 3.5 with a total of 211. Phoenix has really been one of those teams that the Clippers just can't solve. I know, laugh it up, but it's true. The Clippers have intermittent success against most of the NBA, stealing a win here and there, and while they have found ways to barely cover a few times against Phoenix, the Suns 10-1 straight up run against the Clips is pretty close to total domination. But what about ATS? Well, this year, the teams have met 3 times and the Suns have won all 3 straight up, covering the 2 home games, but missing the cover on the road by a single point. The interesting part about the 3 previous meetings, though, is that there was NO defense, at all. The first game was a Phoenix 109-107 road win on October 28, long before anyone had developed any real offensive rhythm or continuity. Hell Phoenix took just 80 shots in that game, but both teams shot over 50%. The next meeting took place on Christmas, and the Suns took that one 124-93, shooting 54% from the field. The third meeting was last week, and the Clippers came to Phoenix and lost 125-112, with the Suns shooting 57% and the Clippers right around 48%. I find it extremely interesting that that game cleared the posted total of 209 by 18 points and books only adjusted by 2. Something tells me this posted total is pretty accurate, and I actually lean to the Under. On the side, it's a tough one. Phoenix is certainly the "easy" play, but they're coming off a huge home win over the Nuggets and host Utah tomorrow. This is the classic sandwich game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Phoenix won by 2 or 3 and failed to cover. I lean Clip show.