Andre Gomes

NBA Saturday 03-13...NBA, When weird stuff happens!!!

2010-03-13T16:09:00Z

NBA SEASON RECORD:

American MM (+23.64 units)
European MM (+19.66 units)

            European    American
Week 1    -6.28        -8.30
Week 2    -6.82        -7.70
Week 3    -14.61       -16.74
Week 4     1.02         0.60
Week 5     21.15       22.40
Week 6     12.58       13.55
Week 7   -30.25       -32.80
Week 8    -1.88        -2.28
Week 9     19.41       21.30
Week 10    9.47        8.98
Week 11    19.15      20.82
Week 12    10.45      11.48
Week 13    -33.89     -37.30
Week 14    15.48      16.10
Week 15     4.67        5.20
Week 16    4.03        4.40
Week 17    -13.81    -15.15
Week 18    2.22        2.40
Week 19   10.98      12.00
Week 20    0.57       0.70

Yesterday recap:

3 units on Over CLE/PHI 198   LOSS

3 units on DENVER -5   WIN

3 units on BOSTON -9   WIN

3 units on Under CHI/MIA 190.5   LOSS

3 units on Over NJN/OKC 193.5   WIN

Daily Message:

We are coming from a profitable day but once again I feel that we could have a better night. It looks like we are present in every weird game in the NBA…but obviously on the wrong side. Last night, the Cavs and the Sixers combined to score 70 points in the first quarter and then 77 points…in the entire second half! However the weirdest stuff happened in the Bulls/Heat game. By looking to the final score you can say that the Under 190.5 points play was never “in reach” but just look to this:

With 4:43 to go in the final quarter the score was 90-77 for Miami (167 points) - We have a good chance to win the Under or at least it will be tight race for both ways. Then:

4:43   Brad Miller flagrant foul type 1 (Dwyane Wade draws the foul)
4:43   Kirk Hinrich technical foul (1st technical foul)
4:43   Brad Miller technical foul (1st technical foul)
4:43   Kirk Hinrich technical foul (2nd technical foul)

Miami will have 5 free throws in the same ball possession!!! Kirk Hinrich was obviously ejected and in his place:

4:43   Jannero Pargo enters the game for Kirk Hinrich

What happened next? Well…

4:16   Jannero Pargo makes 25-foot three point jumper
3:48   Jannero Pargo makes 25-foot three point jumper
2:14   Jannero Pargo makes two point shot
1:47   Jannero Pargo makes driving layup
1:12   Jannero Pargo makes 17-foot jumper

Jannero Parko who supposedly was done for the game comes in to replace Hinrich and scores 12 points in 4 minutes! LOL

I also want to share one game that happened this season and thank god we didn’t have a play in that game. The game was between the Cavaliers and the Wolves. The lines were Cavs by 13 and 201 points.

With 19 seconds to go the score was 105-95 for the Cavs with the Cavaliers having the ball so the game is over right? (Right now the Wolves would have covered the spread and the Under was a winner play).

Answer: No! The Wolves committed 2 fouls that sent the Cavs to the FT line. After all the Wolves’ players thought that with 19 seconds to go and trailing by 10 in CLEVELAND they still had chances to win the contest…LOL

0:14   Ramon Sessions personal foul (Jamario Moon draws the foul)
0:11   Al Jefferson personal foul (Zydrunas Ilgauskas draws the foul)

Well, Ilgauskas converted both free throws and the score was 107-95 for the Cavaliers with 11 seconds to go. Unfortunately Kevin Love committed a turnover in the inbound play and so the Cavaliers had the ball back. With 9 seconds left, trailing by 12 points and with the Cavaliers having the ball, the game is now over right? Wait….the Wolves are still covering the 13-points spread!!! So what you do?

0:09   Kevin Love personal foul (Jawad Williams draws the foul)
0:09 95-108 Jawad Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
0:09 95-109 Jawad Williams makes free throw 2 of 2

Finally with the Cavaliers winning by 14 points and covering the spread, the game can now come to an end and that was it. If you took the Cavaliers -13 in that game we can consider yourself a lucky guy, in my case it was another case of “NBA, when weird stuff happens”.

Injury report for today:

- Clippers Eric Gordon is still doubtful for tonight;
- Guard Ty Lawson is doubtful for tonight;
- Ronny Turiaf is also doubtful for tonight;

NBA 02/10 Clippers/Warriors Analysis and Play

2010-02-10T20:56:00Z

NBA - 719 LA Clippers @ 720 Golden State Warriors

I believe that we are getting a terrific value with the Clippers tonight as they are just 2 points favorites against the Warriors and basically an outright win should seal the deal for us. My projected line for this contest is the Clippers being favored by 2 full ball possessions so we have the proper edge for a Single Dime Play.

Supposedly this is a “letdown” spot for the Clippers as they will play the second game of a back to back series and last night they had a tough home game against the Jazz. However due to the circumstances of yesterday’s loss in which the Clippers blew an interesting lead in the fourth quarter I don’t think that the Clippers will approach lightly this contest as they have the sense of urgency to win to snap their 3-game losing streak.

Regarding a potential physical letdown, only one Clipper’s played logged more than 40 minutes last night (Chris Kaman with 41 minutes) and besides that, the Clippers will play against the Warriors – a non aggressive/soft team in any possible means.

The Warriors had a great chance to snap their huge losing streak against the Mavericks but still once again they failed big in the second half. If we exclude two reserve players that played 6 and 1 minute (Watson and Hunter), Don Nelson used only 6 players in the game and that’s the BIGGEST REASON for such Warriors’ meltdowns late in the game because they are dead tired entering the final quarter! In that game note that the Warriors shot 49.4 % from the field, connected 8 treys, and shot 86.2% from the charity stripe line. They outrebounded the Mavs with an 11-6 edge in offensive boards and they also take care of the ball with 28 Assists and 15 Turnovers for a great team overall performance….still they have lost by 10 points because they just CAN’T DEFEND! They allowed the Mavs to shot 52.1% FG, 12-22 FT, 41 fast break points and allowed the Mavs to go 46 times to the FT line – this kind of lackluster defensive performance will hurt you in every single game!

For tonight Monta Ellis is out and likely C.J. Watson will start in his place. Without Ellis, the Warriors don’t have any offensive weapon that can take control of the game in the final moments. I expect the Clippers to control the boards with Camby and Chris Kaman to have a huge game against the hobbled bodies of Biedrins and Turiaf. Baron Davis missed last night an incredible easy layup late in the game and he will be fired up for tonight against his former team. Take the Clippers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 LA Clippers (-2)

NBA 02/09 Pistons/Bucks Analysis and Play

2010-02-09T18:53:00Z

Detroit
Pace: 91.4 (29th of 30)
Offense: 100.2 (26th of 30)
Defense: 106.0 (20th of 30)

Milwaukee
Pace: 97.1 (9th of 30)
Offense: 101.3 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.2 (8th of 30)

This is a special time in the season where we can find some teams focused in winning to improve their chances for the playoff picture while others teams are just looking ahead to the break and for some couple of days to rest. In my opinion this is the perfect scenario for tonight’s contest between the Bucks and the Pistons.

The Bucks are playing great basketball as of late by winning 7 of their last 10 games and covering the spread in 9 of the last 10 games. I’ve already said several times that center Andrew Bogut is playing great basketball this season and in the last 10 games, Bogut is averaging 18.2 points per game while shooting a whopping mark of 67% from the field! Plus he is grabbing 8.9 rebounds per game and 2.2 blocks per game during this span! The Bucks are caring the ball as well with 21.8 assists per game vs. just 11.6 TO/game L10 and now with Jerry Stackhouse coming off the bench they have one of the most complete and best benches of the league. The mix of these factors makes the Bucks one of the hottest teams in the league in the last couple of weeks.

Meanwhile the Pistons are struggling even with the healthy bodies of Richard Hamilton and Prince. In fact, I think that with these two players on the court, the team chemistry is just terrible and head coach John Kuester simply doesn’t know what to do to find the best rotations. Note that they are paying $10M to Ben Gordon this season and he played less than 20 minutes per game in the Pistons last 5 games. The Pistons are 2-6 L8 games with their 2 wins coming from against the….Nets and still the Nets had legit chances to win those games. In the last game we can see one interesting and intriguing factor. The Pistons as a team shot 52.1% from the field and connected 8-12 behind the arc. However look for the Pistons “big 3” (Stuckey, Hamilton and Prince) field goal numbers:

Rodney Stuckey 4-13
Richard Hamilton 5-14
Tayshaun Prince 2-6

The “Big 3” combined to shot 11-33 from the field – a 33.3% clip while the rest of the crew has shot 27-40 FG – 67.5% from the field! Still, these three players played a total of 103 minutes and that’s a great example of is tough to have the right team chemistry in a team.

For tonight’s contest we can expect a focused Bucks team on the court:

"We're trying to finish before the break on a strong note, and I think we will," coach Scott Skiles said.
"These are two huge games right here. We really have a chance to put ourselves in a position where every game is meaningful for quite a while.

"The guys know that we've got important games coming out of the break, and I think that can benefit us."
Meanwhile the Pistons have tomorrow a “winnable” game at home against the Kings so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is near to be out of reach they will simply give up thinking in tomorrow’s game. Note that the Bucks have the depth on their bench to solidify a blowout line. They have the third best bench in the league with 38.2 points per game and we can count on them to finish the job.

My projected line in this contest is the Bucks receiving a blowout line and anything less than a double digits line for them gives us the proper edge to make a play with the Bucks tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Milwaukee Bucks (-8)

NBA 02/03 Thoughts and Blazers/Jazz Analysis and Play

2010-02-03T10:18:00Z

We are coming from a good night, as we had a 4-0 sweep. I’ve waited more than the usual to release my final update because I was expecting to get some info about Corey Maggette’s injury and without him my projected line for that game (Warriors/Rockets) was -9.5/12 and so, we would have had a play on the Rockets. Unfortunately, the confirmation was known later and it was a pass. Some notes about yesterday:

- Raptors guard Jose Calderon was limping to the locker-room early in the fourth quarter, as he apparently stepped on teammate Jarrett Jack’s foot. His status for tonight is uncertain.

- Even without Jameer Nelson and Mikael Pietrus, the Magic didn’t have any problem to spank the Bucks for an easy win for us. Vince Carter is back?!? He had probably his best game of the season by shooting 7-15 FG, scoring 17 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 7 assists.

- The Cavs showed why they have the best paint defense in the league by shutting down the Grizzlies to just 34 points in the paint. I remember that Memphis is averaging 51.6 points in the paint.

- The Bulls had a tremendous letdown against the Clippers at home, while Chris Kaman showed that without him, his team can’t simply win any ballgame or even compete for it.

- I’ve watched the second half of the Hawks/Thunder game and in my opinion it was one of the best games of the season! Only 17 total turnovers for the whole game and two huge performances from Kevin Durant and Joe Johnson.

- Maggette didn’t play last night against the Rockets. His status for today: “Corey Maggette did not play Tuesday with a hip pointer, but according to the Warriors’ television crew he could have if necessary.”

DAILY ANALYSIS:

@
POR UTA

PORTLAND

Pace: 91.0 (30th of 30)
Offense: 107.6 (5th of 30)
Defense: 104.2 (17th of 30)

UTAH

Pace: 95.7 (15th of 30)
Offense: 106.4 (8th of 30)
Defense: 101.5 (9th of 30)

I’ve decided to release early this play, as with the current line of 198 points, according to my projected line, we have a 5-points edge (my real line is 193 points) and so, we have the proper edge to take the Under regardless any prior line movement. I wouldn’t discard to upgrade this play later into a Double Dime Play if 1) the line movement pushes up the line opening a 2 full ball possessions edge for us or 2) the referee’s crew is a strong “under” crew.

What we have in here is in my opinion an over inflated line due to several reasons: The Trail Blazers are a hot “Over” team as 6 of their last 7 games ending up being “Over”; the Jazz are riding a 6-game winning streak and the public perception is that they are playing a killer offense averaging 109.3 points per game during the streak…but they are playing as well great defense and also the first two games of the series ended with 200 and 201 points and so, the oddmakers were forced to push up the line.

This series has been an extreme slow paced series and only exceptional shooting performances can put the Under in danger. That happened with the Jazz as in the first two meetings they have shot above 60% from the field in each contest and literally spanked the Blazers. Note that in the first game the Blazers had a terrible spot for that game by playing in back to back nights and in the last game the Jazz started 22-2 and they never look back, while the Blazers had to push the pace after such early hole.

In my opinion the Blazers have all the conditions to perform better on the defensive end. First of all, Carlos Boozer is out for tonight and he was a “Blazers killer” in the first 2 games by combining 16-21 from the field, 17 rebounds and 7 assists. Paul Millsap is a good player but he does not have the size and length of Boozer. Also the Blazers have now Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez perfectly accommodated into the rotations and they provide the Blazers some missed size and length on the wings. We all know that the Blazers don’t have the same presence in the paint and they were already lacking some defensive presence on the wings. Nate McMillan was forced some times to bring Miller, Bayless and Blake to the court at the same time and we talking about 3 players with 6’3’’, 6’2’’ and 6’3’’! The Jazz game plan relies heavily into cuts and off screeners from their forwards and facing the Blazers was too easy for them. In the last game against the Bobcats, the Blazers showed some signs of good defense by shutting down a hot team like the Bobcats to just 79 points.

Speaking of the Jazz…they are playing some brilliant defense as of late! It’s easy to praise their offense, but their defense has been the real highlight lately. In their 6-game winning streak for only once they allowed their opponents to reach the century mark in points – 115 points from the Suns, but even in that game, the Suns were held to just 46 points in the second half. Last game against the Mavericks, the Jazz showed their good defense in the final quarter by holding Dallas to just 16 team points.

According to my numbers, I have a line of 192/195 points for this contest and so, we have the proper edge to take the Under in here and I don’t discard the possibility of an upgrade.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 198

NBA 02/01 Bucks/Heat Analysis and Play

2010-02-01T18:41:00Z

Milwaukee
Pace: 95.4 (18th of 30)
Offense: 103.3 (20th of 30)
Defense: 103.6 (12th of 30)

Miami
Pace: 91.5 (28th of 30)
Offense: 106.2 (11th of 30)
Defense: 105.3 (18th of 30)

This is a home-home series as both teams have played against each other last Saturday and so it’s crucial for our analysis to understand what happened in that game and in what this contest will be different.

The Bucks have defeated the Heat 95-84 and at the break they were already leading 56-38 so we can say that they didn’t have any problem to beat Miami. I was expecting such outcome as I had a play with the Bucks and in my write up I said the following: “Even though it was an easy game [against the Pistons], the Heat didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for tonight’s contest.”

The letdown happened for the Heat as they ended the game by shooting only 37.2% from the field and 6-22 behind the arc – only 27.3%. Dwayne’s Wade 6-20 (.300) shooting performance was his second worst of the season. To make things even worse, Wade was in foul trouble, picking up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter and going to the bench until returning with 7:22 remaining in the game. Miami has been a terrible team in back to backs as their offense simply disappears. Note that Wade is shooting 43.1% FG in b2b games vs. 46.6% for the season or/and Jermaine O’Neal is shooting 48.0% FG in b2b games vs. 54% for the season.

Bottom line, a relatively poor defensive team of the Bucks was able to hold the Heat to just 84 points and even after the game rookie Brandon Jennings praised the team defensive performance: ``I guess we got the `D-Wade stopper' on the team right now,'' – He was talking about Charlie Bell.

However let’s see if the Bucks will be able to stop the Heat tonight as they have a better spot and usually they are a terrific offensive team coming of a loss. I remember that the Over is 8-1 in the Heat last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dwayne Wade will be fired up tonight and even Michael Beasley might return to the court. The Bucks are a team that can score with some ease as they have a nice bench in Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick or Jerry Stackhouse and if their starters aren’t performing well, Scott Skiles won’t hesitate in sending them to the bench. Bogut is on an offensive roll and the Heat will have some problems to stop him as well.

My projected line for this contest is a range of 192-195 points and in my opinion we have the proper edge to take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 189

NBA 01/30 Heat/Bucks Analysis and Play

2010-01-30T22:23:00Z

Miami
Pace: 93.5 (27th of 30)
Offense: 104.2 (17th of 30)
Defense: 103.1 (13th of 30)

Milwaukee
Pace: 97.6 (6th of 30)
Offense: 101.1 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.1 (8th of 30)

In my opinion, we are getting some value with the Bucks tonight, as according to my numbers, they should be favored by 2 full possessions in here and anything bellow this key number puts the value on the Bucks.

Miami played last night in Detroit against the Pistons and didn’t have any problem to beat a pathetic Pistons team. Even though it was an easy game, the Heat didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for tonight’s contest. The Heat used a fantastic team defense effort last night, but the problem for them will be to duplicate the effort in back to back games, that’s why have failed to cover the spread in the last 4 back to back games and they were far away from being competitive: 78-118 @ San Antonio, 89-118 @ Utah, 80-98 @ Oklahoma City and 65-104 @ Charlotte.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing better as of late than their results might indicate. An ATS record is a good measure for their competitiveness and the Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. In my opinion, there are 3 factors for such improvement lately: 1. the team has found the proper team chemistry after knowing that Michael Redd is out for the season, as Carlos Delfino is now a natural starter. In the last games, they showed a terrific ball movement with 3.57, 1.25, 2.25, 1.67 and 1.89 A/TO ratios. 2. Andrew Bogut is playing unbelievable good basketball lately and he is a force down low for the Bucks. 3. Brandon Jennings is back to life after a huge slump, as he has hit 8-16, 5-16 and 8-18 from the field in the last 3 games.

The Bucks enjoyed 2 days off to rest and to prepare this game and they need badly to win in order to get a better position in the playoff picture and tonight against the Heat, they have a favorable spot that I believe they will take advantage of it. Take the Bucks in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Milwaukee Bucks (-4)

Tennis Play AO Finals - Roger Federer vs Andy Murray

2010-01-30T22:22:00Z

It’s hard to predict who is going to win this match and that’s why I believe the over is the right play in here. These two players have already faced each other 10 times and in most of these matches, they went to the distance, needing a final set to decide the winner of those matches. Even though I actually see this match going to a 5th set, it won’t be necessary for this match to go over the total posted. Four sets with a tie-break will be more than enough for the match to go over the total posted. Something like 6-4 4-6 7-6 6-3 (42 games) is enough for this match to go over and in my opinion, we won’t watch any blowout set in here, as the quality of both players won’t allow that. After last season’s close final between Federer and Nadal, I believe we are heading to another really close Australian Open final and that’s why I’ll be taking the over in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Over 40,5 Games

Tennis Play AO Finals - Serena Williams vs Justine Henin

2010-01-29T18:31:00Z

This is surely the match everybody was expecting to happen when Justine Henin came back to the circuit this season. This was easily the biggest rivalry on WTA over the past decade and it’s not a huge surprise that the first Grand Slam of this decade has in the final these two players. However, Justine Henin isn’t still playing at her best and I don’t believe she will have the weapons to counter Serena Williams, who will show up big time as every time she plays a Grand Slam final.

There is no better big-match player than Serena Williams in the tennis world nowadays. If there were any doubts about that, facts don’t lie: she is 11-3 on Grand Slam finals, with just two defeats against her sister Venus Williams and one in Wimbledon against Maria Sharapova. Serena may lack motivation to play well in some tournaments and in the early rounds of Grand Slams, but when the big match comes, Serena Williams shows up every single time. And don’t worry because this won’t be an exception, because there is no doubt that Serena will want to beat Henin on this Grand Slam really bad. She is playing very well on this tournament, barring a absolute no-show for a set and a half against Azarenka, but even in that match, Serena showed that she has the heart of a lion by coming back from 4-6 0-4 down, with an unbelievable level of tennis in the rest of the match to beat Azarenka by 4-6 7-6 6-2. She also had another brilliant performance against Na Li in terms of clutch tennis by winning that match in two tie-breaks, even though the Chinese played one of the best matches of her career. Serena is moving well, hitting well the ball from both wings and most important than that, she is serving like no other player has ever served in the history of WTA: serving 39 aces on her last three matches is ridiculous on women’s tennis and it’s even more impressive, as Serena is serving aces in the really important points of her matches. Expect the same to happen in this match, as Serena knows how to bring the best of her when it really matters.

On the other side, Justine Henin has been surely impressive to be on a Grand Slam final on her second tournament after her comeback, but she is not playing as good as Serena is right now. Not at all. You may look at her semi final result and think that she was amazing, but Jie Zheng basically didn’t show up in that match. The truth is that Henin is still struggling a bit, especially on her service games by committing a large number of double faults. Also she has been struggling in maintaining her baseline consistency, especially on her backhand wing and Serena will make sure that she will punish Henin’s flashy backhand. Henin was clearly exposed by the powerful ground strokes of Kleybanova, Wickmayer and Petrova, three players who had Henin on the ropes, but couldn’t capitalize due to their lack of experience, fitness and overall mentality to make the upset. Well, Serena won’t have any problem in putting Henin away if she sees herself on a winning position and that’s what I expect in here. Even though Henin has been playing well, she will simply get outplayed by the amazing level that Serena will bring to the court today, giving the clear upperhand on this match to Serena. The American will also hold serve much easily than the Belgian and I have no doubts that Serena should be a clear favorite on this match, something that she isn’t and so, I’ll be taking her to win this match on a Double Dime Selection.

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime) on Serena Williams ML

NBA 01/28 Raptors/Knicks Analysis and Play

2010-01-28T22:30:00Z

Toronto
Pace: 96.0 (14th of 30)
Offense: 108.2 (4th of 30)
Defense: 109.3 (30th of 30)

NY Knicks
Pace: 97.5 (9th of 30)
Offense: 103.7 (17th of 30)
Defense: 105.7 (19th of 30)

These two teams are coming from high scoring affairs as of late and naturally that the oddmakers were forced to adjust the totals line up from the original stand point. Note that two weeks ago these two teams faced each other and the line was 210/211 points, so we are getting more 7/8 points tonight and I’m taking advantage of it.

The Raptors played last night against the Heat at home and both Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani enjoyed huge offensive games by combining 24-41 from the field, while playing 39 and 37 minutes respectively. The Raptors as a team shot 56.8% from the field, scored 50 points in the paint and 20 fast break points. It was a huge offensive night for them! The problem is that they have to play a back to back tonight and an offensive letdown will certainly happen. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in b2b games because: they can’t be efficient on the offense end while their interior defense and effort is at least “questionable”. For example, note that Andrea Bargnani is shooting only 40.1% from the field in b2b night’s versus 47.5% for the season.

I wouldn’t take the Under involving the Raptors in a b2b spot if it wasn’t against the Knicks because the style of play of the Knicks really doesn’t take advantage from the Raptors biggest weakness: interior defense! The Knicks relies their game in shooting 3pts instead of feeding the low post game. They are coming from a huge blowout win against the Wolves by 27 points in a game, in which they attempted 40 treys! 43% of their shots were behind the arc! After such offensive explosion, I expect the Knicks to keep this style of play and naturally that the Raptors defense will be thankful of that.

Even though this series has been a high scoring series, don’t think that we are dealing with prototypical run and gun games, no way!!! I’ve tracked the first game of this series and it was far from being a fast paced game! Note that the Raptors shot 53.4% from the field, 12-22 3pts, 22-31 FT’s and have committed only 12 turnovers and still…they scored “only” 112 points. If that game was a run and gun game, the Raptors would have scored +125 points!

My projected line in this contest is 213/215 points and we have a play in here due to the false public perception that pushed the line “off the correct number”. Take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 218

Tennis Play AO SF's - Roger Federer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

2010-01-28T22:24:00Z

This is the only match of the day and I predict that it won’t be a close one at all. Roger Federer has been in a quite tough draw for the last few rounds and he has been successfully overcoming all the obstacles, including Nikolay Davydenko in the quarter finals, a player who had defeated Federer in the last two matches where they had faced each other. It’s a fact that the Russian player choked a lot during the match and actually outplayed Federer for a set and a half, but during that period nobody in the circuit would have handled Davydenko because he was playing at an unbelievable level. We actually need to give credit Federer for the fact he was able to hang in there and then, cause the choke of Davydenko with a consistent good level of tennis. Federer is playing well right now, as it was clearly visible against Hewitt and I expect that to be clearly visible once again today because Tsonga is actually a great matchup for him. People may think that it isn’t due to the fact that the head to head is tied at 1-1, but Federer won the first match between the two by 6-4 6-1 and then was up in the second match by 6-7 6-1 5-1, until he had a huge choke and lost the match by 7-6 in the third set. I say the matchup for Federer is quite easy, because Federer will punish Tsonga’s poor backhand with his crosscourt forehand shots, while he will also explore Tsonga’s average movement and poor hitting on the run with his down the line backhand shots. Federer can also counter punch quite well when it is necessary and so, we will also see Federer taking advantage of the pace created by Tsonga’s powerful forehand shots to hit some amazing winners on the run, including passing shots from both wings, when Tsonga comes to the net. The only way Tsonga could make this match close would be with his serve, however note that the surface isn’t quick enough for that, as it was shown against Djokovic, where Tsonga was broken 6 times and couldn’t win more than 68% of the points played on his first serve, even though Djokovic played a poor match and was clearly struggling with a indisposition. The spread of 6 games may seem a fair one in here, like it was in the game between Murray and Cilic yesterday, however note that the matchup is completely different, as Cilic was actually a tough matchup for Murray, while Tsonga is a quite easy matchup for Federer. The French had never played a 5 sets match before on his career until he had two in a row on his last two matches on this tournament and so, I believe he will also be too tired to make this very tough match for him a close one. I expect Federer to win this match with an advantage of about 8 games and so, I’ll be taking him minus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Roger Federer (-6 Games)

Tennis Play 18-01 Card

2010-01-18T21:34:00Z

Australian Open - Stefan Koubek vs Rajeev Ram

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Stefan Koubek (-4 Games)

Australian Open - Ernests Gulbis vs Juan Monaco

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Ernests Gulbis ML

Australian Open - David Ferrer vs Frederico Gil

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on David Ferrer (-7 Games)

Australian Open - Victor Hanescu vs Juan Ignacio Chela

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Juan Ignacio Chela (+2,5 Games)

Australian Open - Taylor Dent vs Fabio Fognini
Australian Open - Michael Llodra vs Martin Vassallo Arguello

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Taylor Dent ML x Michael Llodra ML

Australian Open - Melanie Oudin vs Alla Kudryatseva

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Melanie Oudin ML

Australian Open - Xavier Malisse vs Nicolas Almagro

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Xavier Malisse ML

Australian Open - Albert Montanes vs Oscar Hernandez

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Albert Montanes (-6 Games)

Australian Open - Potito Starace vs Stephane Robert

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Stephane Robert (+3 Games)

Tennis Plays 15-01 Card

2010-01-15T20:46:00Z

2 Plays for today:

WTA Hobart - Shahar Peer vs Alona Bondarenko

*NOTE: No writeup for this play, back tomorrow*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Shahar Peer (-2 Games) @ -140 on Betus

ATP Auckland - John Isner vs Arnaud Clement

*NOTE: No writeup for this play, back tomorrow*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Arnaud Clement (+2 Games) @ -110 on The Greek

Tennis Plays 14-01 Card

2010-01-14T21:10:00Z

3 Plays for today:

ATP Auckland - John Isner vs Albert Montanes
ATP Sydney - Richard Gasquet vs Julien Benneteau

I can't recall the last time someone actually made it to a semi final of an ATP tournament without facing a single Top 200 player in the previous rounds. But that's exactly what happened with Montanes this week, as he defeated the world numbers 456, 332 and 209 to get into the semi finals. In fact, let's face it: there would be no other way Montanes could actually made it to a semi final of an ATP tournament outside clay without such an easy draw. The Spanish player is a claycourter, with no major weapons to do well on fast surfaces and I expect him to get crushed by the big server and powerful hitter John Isner. The American had a really tough draw, as he faced Garcia-Lopez, Monaco and Robredo to get into this round and with him more than used by now in facing consistent baseliners this week, I expect Isner to comfortably get the win today against the easiest player he will face this week. The American should be able to advance to his fourth career final in here.

Richard Gasquet has been playing very well this week, even though he struggled on returning serve yesterday in the second set against Starace, but I guess that was just because the first set was so easy that Gasquet relaxed too much and almost ended up losing the set. Gasquet is obviously a great hardcourt player and he has been showing that this week with great wins over Feliciano Lopez and Benjamin Becker and I believe he is clearly heading to his best form, something he wasn't able to do last season. He will face a fellow French player, Julien Benneteau, who had a quite easy draw this week. First, he faced an ultra tired Dudi Sela, then the lucky loser Taylor Dent and finally Leonardo Mayer, who is talented but surely not with the level of a player like Gasquet. Gasquet is 11-1 as a favorite (<1.50) on hardcourt against fellow Frenchmen (11 wins in a row) since 2006, while Benneteau is 2-9 on his last 11 matches as an underdog (>2.00) against his fellow countrymates. Gasquet has easily defeated Benneteau in the only time these two have faced each other and I believe that will happen again in today's match.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on John Isner ML x Richard Gasquet ML @ -102 on 5 Dimes

ATP Auckland - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Arnaud Clement

I don't believe this match will be close, as very few matches are close when Kohlschreiber is on-fire like he is this week. The German player has defeated all his three opponents by a huge margin (6-2 6-3; 6-4 6-1; 6-3 6-1) and honestly I rate his second round and quarter final opponents (Thomaz Bellucci and Marc Gicquel) above Arnaud Clement on hardcourt and so, I don't expect Clement to have any chance to handle Kohlschreiber, who is one of the most amazing baseliners when he is on, as he can hit winners from every spot in the court, due to his very powerful forehand and amazing backhand. Kohlschreiber has an edge in every single aspect of this matchup (serve, baseline rallies, confidence) and even though Clement is coming from two great wins over David Ferrer and Jurgen Melzer, these two players lack the power to overpower Clement, unlike Kohlschreiber, whose huge ground strokes will put Clement on the running the whole day. The French player may have a great defensive game, but so does Bjorn Phau, Andreas Seppi, Tommy Robredo, Novak Djokovic and Juan Carlos Ferrero for example and still Kohlschreiber defeated them over the past twelve months. I expect Kohlschreiber to be all over Clement's serve in today's match and win both sets by at least a break of difference, covering the spread in that way. Take Kohlschreiber minus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Philipp Kohlschreiber (-3,5 Games) @ -110 on The Greek

WTA Sydney - Serena Williams vs Elena Dementieva

This is the final most people were expecting and it's hard to forget how these two dominated the Australian part of the season in 2009. Now both players are back to the spotlight on this tournament and I expect this match to be a really close one. Serena Williams is obviously a better player than Elena Dementieva, however motivation counts a lot on these matches and besides that, Dementieva is becoming a really tough matchup for Serena, as it was seen most recently on Wimbledon and Toronto last season. Serena lacks the motivation and the intensiveness to play at her really best outside the later stages of Grand Slams and that was clearly visible when she almost lost to Aravane Rezai in the semi finals. Serena was down 3-6 3-5 and if it wasn't for a choke by Rezai, Serena would be out of this tournament by now. On the other side, Dementieva has been playing very well this week and she really has no problems in finding the right motivation to play at her best on these lower tier tournaments. She has the game to trouble Serena and with the American playing at about 50% of her intensiveness, I believe Dementieva has a great shot of retaining the title that she won last season. The Russian destroyed Serena in the semi finals of this tournament last season by 6-3 6-1 and even though that result won't surely be repeated, I rate this match as a clear 50/50 match and so, I'll gladly get this bonus of 2 games for Dementieva. Take the Russian plus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Elena Dementieva (+2 Games) @ +100 The Greek

Tennis Plays 13-01 Card

2010-01-13T21:06:00Z

2 Plays for today:

ATP Sydney - Richard Gasquet vs Potito Starace

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Richard Gasquet (-4,5 Games) @ -130 on The Greek

ATP Sydney - Mardy Fish vs Peter Luczak

*No writeup for this play*

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Mardy Fish (-2,5 Games) @ -130 on The Greek

Tennis Plays 12-01 Night Card

2010-01-12T21:07:00Z

ATP Auckland - Tommy Robredo vs Simon Greul

This is the first Double Dime of the 2010 season and I really hope we are as successful on these plays, as we are being on the regular ones until now. Simon Greul is the kind of opponent Tommy Robredo eats for breakfast. The German player has some talent and firepower, but he is just way too inconsistent to stay competitive against a player like Robredo, who always return every shot with a lot of depth, especially from his forehand wing. Robredo has already reached the final of this tournament and he looked clearly in-form during the Hopman Cup, where he won all his four matches, including wins over Andy Murray and Lleyton Hewitt. The Spanish player never has a problem with lowly opponents on hardcourt and in fact, he is 25-0 SU since 2004 on this surface in matches where he is priced at 1.25 or lower. But not only he wins these matches, he destroys his opponents, as he is 15-0 ATS and 13-2 Under on his last 15 matches on this spot. I really never had a doubt to make a selection on this match a Double Dime one, I just had doubts in choosing the spread or the under. I took the under, as a 6-4 6-4 win may happen and Robredo would fail to cover the spread, but still the match would easily go under. I expect some kind of a 6-4 6-2 type of result in here and so, I'm taking the under in a Double Dime Selection.

Pick: 2 units (Double Dime) on Under 21,5 Games (US Books are yet to open the total lines for this contest)

ATP Auckland - Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Michael Lammer

The difference between these two players is huge and the odds aren't reflecting that. Juan Carlos Ferrero showed last season that he is still a very good hardcourt player and even though, he will be making his season debut today, I don't think he will have a single problem in taking out a journeyman currently placed 209 in the rankings. Michael Lammer had a dream draw in the qualifying and managed to make it to the main draw, but let's face it: he has no business on this level and he won't have any kind of solution to handle the game variety of Ferrero in here. The Spanish player may even have a slow start, but then he will roll over the Swiss player, whose poor serve is easily be exposed by Ferrero. A spread of just 4,5 games doesn't reflect the difference between these two players and so, I'll be taking Ferrero minus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Juan Carlos Ferrero (-4,5 Games) @ -145 on 5 Dimes

ATP Auckland - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Thomaz Bellucci

I believe everything has a limit. Even though Kohlschreiber was terrible in the Hopman Cup and Bellucci has begun the 2010 season in good form, there is no way the German player should be the underdog in here for the simple reason he is clearly the better player of the two. Kohlschreiber is a former winner of this tournament and looking at his good win yesterday, I believe he is headed to another big run on this tournament. He is a very complete player and with his great ground strokes from both wings, I believe he will be able to get the upper hand over Bellucci, who has already played a lot this season and who may be headed to a physical letdown mainly because of that. I trust Kohlschreiber to make this match highly competitive and then, I expect him to use his experienced to get the win at the end. The value of this match is clearly on the side of Kohlschreiber and so, I'll be taking him in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Philipp Kohlschreiber ML @ -102 on 5 Dimes

ATP Sydney - Richard Gasquet vs Benjamin Becker
ATP Sydney - Lleyton Hewitt vs Andreas Seppi

Richard Gasquet easily defeated Feliciano Lopez in the first round, showing that he is really in great form and fired up to play tennis after his suspension. He will now face Benjamin Becker, a great matchup for Gasquet, who can handle the firepower of his opponents quite well, especially when they miss one shot on every two hit like Becker usually does. The German player was able to beat a disappointing Chela, but Gasquet is from another championship and I expect the French player to easily win this match.

Lleyton Hewitt wasn't exactly great on the Hopman Cup, but he still won two matches and just lost a match against Robredo when Australia was already eliminated. I know Seppi is tradicionally a tough matchup for Hewitt, however the Italian player isn't in great form right now, just like he was when he defeated Hewitt those two times (in Sydney 2006, he made it to the semi finals from the qualifying and in Rotterdam 2008, he defeated Rafael Nadal). With the help of the crowd, I expect Hewitt to outplay Seppi from the baseline, while exposing Seppi's average at best serve. Hewitt has never lost on his first match in Sydney in eight participations and I don't expect that to happen today. The Australian should get a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Richard Gasquet ML x Lleyton Hewitt ML @ -115 on 5 Dimes

WTA Hobart - Carla Suarez Navarro vs Alicia Molik

I took Sania Mirza to beat Alicia Molik in the first round, but the Indian player was horrible the whole match and still she almost won the match! That's how poor Molik is currently playing, as even though she can beat Top 200 players, she really can't be competitive against a really decent player like Suarez Navarro. The Spanish player is a great baseliner, being able to hit very well from both wings and I expect her to use her good defensive game and counter punching to outplay a slow and backhand-less Molik. The Australian has just her serve and forehand to help her in today's match and even though that was enough against a terrible Mirza, that just isn't enough against a complete player like Suarez Navarro. Take the Spanish player to win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Carla Suarez Navarro ML @ -150 on The Greek

ATP Sydney - Marcos Baghdatis vs Viktor Troicki

I guess the oddmakers haven't still forgotten about Baghdatis' loss by 0-6 1-6 against Berdych last week because he should really be a much clear favorite in here. The Cypriot, barring that no show, is playing well and he showed that in the first round by easily taking out the in-form Nick Lindahl by 6-2 7-5. Baghdatis is serving well and hitting his ground strokes with conviction, something he lacked last season. He will now face Viktor Troicki, who would be a respectable opponent for Baghdatis in here if it wasn't for his terrible spot. He played semi finals in Doha last week and after such a big effort, he played a long match yesterday against Serra, where Troicki really struggled, even though the score doesn't show that. Troicki will be playing a back to back match today, while Baghdatis had one day to rest and with the help of the crowd, I expect the more talented Baghdatis to comfortably get the win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Marcos Baghdatis ML @ -125 on 5 Dimes

ATP Sydney - Mardy Fish vs Evgeny Korolev

Yesterday I took Mardy Fish to beat Carsten Ball, because the odds were ridiculous for the much more talented Fish. Today, I am basically doing the same thing. Mardy Fish is back and he is already playing like a Top 30 player once again. He is serving extremely well, his backhand is sharp as always and his net game continues to give him the ability to shorten the points when it is necessary. He is confident and happy for playing after a long injury lay-off and I expect him to comfortably defeat the inconsistent Korolev in here. The Russian (now bought by Kazakhstan) defeated Querrey yesterday, but that was such a terrible played match by both players that it's hard to call it a good win. Korolev is much more inconsistent than Fish, especially on serve and while Fish will be serving aces the whole match, Korolev will most likely serve more double faults than aces, like it is usual for him. Mardy Fish has won the only match between the two in the past and I expect him to do the exact same thing today. Take Fish to win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Mardy Fish ML @ -126 on 5 Dimes