Miami
Pace: 93.5 (27th of 30)
Offense: 104.2 (17th of 30)
Defense: 103.1 (13th of 30)
Milwaukee
Pace: 97.6 (6th of 30)
Offense: 101.1 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.1 (8th of 30)
In my opinion, we are getting some value with the Bucks tonight, as
according to my numbers, they should be favored by 2 full possessions
in here and anything bellow this key number puts the value on the Bucks.
Miami played last night in Detroit against the Pistons and didn’t
have any problem to beat a pathetic Pistons team. Even though it was an
easy game, the Heat didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario
Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and
even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for tonight’s contest. The Heat used
a fantastic team defense effort last night, but the problem for them
will be to duplicate the effort in back to back games, that’s why have
failed to cover the spread in the last 4 back to back games and they
were far away from being competitive: 78-118 @ San Antonio, 89-118 @
Utah, 80-98 @ Oklahoma City and 65-104 @ Charlotte.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing better as of late than their
results might indicate. An ATS record is a good measure for their
competitiveness and the Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. In my
opinion, there are 3 factors for such improvement lately: 1. the team
has found the proper team chemistry after knowing that Michael Redd is
out for the season, as Carlos Delfino is now a natural starter. In the
last games, they showed a terrific ball movement with 3.57, 1.25, 2.25,
1.67 and 1.89 A/TO ratios. 2. Andrew Bogut is playing unbelievable good
basketball lately and he is a force down low for the Bucks. 3. Brandon
Jennings is back to life after a huge slump, as he has hit 8-16, 5-16
and 8-18 from the field in the last 3 games.
The Bucks enjoyed 2 days off to rest and to prepare this game and
they need badly to win in order to get a better position in the playoff
picture and tonight against the Heat, they have a favorable spot that I
believe they will take advantage of it. Take the Bucks in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Milwaukee Bucks (-4)