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Andre Gomes has begun his handicapping activity in Portugal, where others like him in ApostaGanha , called themselves tipsters, the British title used by those who can really pick winners, week by week, month by month and... year by year. While NBA is...

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Andre Gomes' Portland Trail Blazers NBA Preview 2008

by andre gomes on 09/25/2008 11:15 PM

 

 

Portland's off season last season was lived with euphoria: after all, the team had the rookie of year, Brandon Roy, and the number one choice in the draft: Greg Oden. All of a sudden, all that euphoria disappeared when Oden got injured and missed the whole season and very few expected that the team without him would still reach a .500 record, in a conference where the Warriors with a 48-34 record couldn't reach a postseason spot.

The Trail Blazers had one of the best winning streaks last season, with 13 wins in a row in December (12-1 ATS) and they had the right to have their own spotlight. The main reason for that was the duo Nate McMillan and Kevin Pritchard, who built a young team with a lot of character and which promises to be a championship contender in the future. Pritchard took the risk of trading their "best" player Zach Randolph to the Knicks and one year later, we can say this was an excellent choice and probably if the Celtics hadn't won the title, Pritchard would have won the "Manager of the Year" award.

Nate McMillan is one of the most underrated coaches on the league and very few remember he was the coach of Seattle in the 2004-2005 season, where the team finished the season with a 52-30 record and coincidence or not, this was the last season the Sonics had a positive record and reached the playoffs. McMillan went 212-183 in Seattle and maybe if he continued with the Sonics, the team wouldn't have moved to Oklahoma. After leaving the Sonics, McMillan moved to Portland and this will be his 4th season with the team, where the Blazers have been improving season after season with him: 21, 32 and last season 41 wins. It's pretty obvious his work at Portland has been very good and also McMillan was part of the staff of Team USA in the Olympics, which showed a lot of chemistry.

After this presentation, there is just one obstacle, which may prevent this team from improving even more: injuries! If the team doesn't get massacred by injuries, the Trail Blazers will be one of the youngest, most athletic and complete of the whole league and they will certainly fight for a playoff spot. The problem is that Oden has never played a single game on the league, we don't know how the recovery of Brandon Roy has been lately and most recently PF Channing Frye had surgery and he will be out for 8 to 10 weeks.

Before I start analyzing the roster of the Blazers, I have to say again that they have one of the deepest roster in the league. If McMillan pretends to play on a faster pace with a run and gun style in one game and then on the following game, he wants the team to play on a typical half court game, Portland has enough solutions on the roster to do it.

In the point guard position, the starter will be Steve Blake, who was another great deal Pritchard made last season. More than his numbers (8.5 ppg and 5.1 apg), Blake was a leader on the field, helping Roy in controlling the game. He is also an excellent defender and the fact he is a very useful player on the roster will never be in doubt this season. Jerryd Bayless will be Blake's backup and he is a player for the future, as Pritchard sent Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts to Indiana, in order to get him (the Blazers also got Ike Diogu). Bayless showed in college that he is a player with several offensive solutions, as he finished last season with 19.7 ppg and 4apg, while playing for the Arizona Wildcats. His dribbling abilities and quickness will make him a very serious offense threat and he is a good complement for Blake, as Portland has good solutions with these two in the PG position for any type of game.

Brandon Roy will be the SG of the team and naturally the leader of the Blazers. His great performances last season gave him a ticket to the All-Star game, as he finished the season with 19.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg and 5.8 apg, excellent numbers, but which don't show the real importance of Roy on this team. He is an all-around player, who is capable of doing well any task in the field and if he is physically at 100%, then there is no motives why he shouldn't have another great season.

Rudy Fernandez will join the Blazers this season and this is fantastic news for them. Maybe a couple of months ago, very few people in the United States knew that Rudy even existed, but in the Olympics final between Spain and the US, Rudy scored 22 points in 18 minutes and had an amazing dunk on Howard's face. He finished his last season in Spain with 21.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.1 apg and 2.2 steals per game, while winning one national and one international trophy for his team. He was also considered the best player playing in Europe last season.

With Rudy, the team gains another dimension, fortunately for the team, McMillan knows very well the abilities of Rudy, at least he has already said that being on the bench in the Olympics final helped him in evaluating his new player. Rudy abdicated of many millions of euros that he was receiving in Spain, in order to follow his dream of playing on the NBA, even if this means he will be receiving much less in Portland. His versatility and athleticism make him a player who can adapt to any kind of system.

Travis Outlaw will be the team's 6th player and last season he was the responsible for many miraculous recoveries of the Blazers and a decisive player in the 4th quarter. He had 13.3 ppg and 4.6 rpg last season and his role promises to be once again a contender for the Sixth Man of the Year. The starter at SF will be Martell Webster, who comes from a career year last season, with 10.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg and 1.2 apg - all of them career highs. Webster is an hard-working player and he will be very useful to the team, being a good complement to Outlaw, making this team very interesting at the SF position.

The frontcourt of the team will depend a lot from the impact Oden can have, but don't think the team's frontcourt is weak without Oden, as that's not true at all! LaMarcus Aldridge was an huge surprise last season, while being one of the players who most improved since his rookie season. Aldridge went from 9.0 ppg to 17.8 ppg, almost the double! Besides that, he had 7.6 rpg (5.0 rpg as a rookie) and he is a player with a good mid range shot, capable of creating problems to any defense. As Fyre will be out at the beginning of the season, it will be Ike Diogu who will have the role of being Aldridge's backup in the team. I think Diogu is the kind of player who was misused in the teams where he played and who has potential to be useful in every team.

When we talk about Portland was capable of doing last season, nobody refers the center Joel Przybilla, who is extremely unfair to him, as Przybilla was the team's best defender, finishing the season with 4.8 ppg and 8.4 rpg. He finished the season in 4th in the whole league in terms of rebounds per 48 minutes with 12.0, which shows how dominant he can be in the paint. Hardly we can find another player who averaged 8.4 rpg with just 23.6 minutes per game!

This team has everything to be a contender for a playoff place and just the injuries look to be an obstacle for them this season. However, the team will need to enter in great style on the season, as they will play 10 of their first 15 games on the road, with 12 of those games being against other teams of the Western conference.

 

Get Andre Gomes' 1st Half NBA Season Package at Pregame Pros!

 

 

24 Comments:

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/03/2008 10:43 AM

I really cant argue with any of that Andre, good stuff man! However, B-Roy runs the point quite a bit & usually exclusively in the 4ht Quarter. Webster has his WORK CUT OUT for himself if wants to be anything more than a 10th man on this SICKLY DEEP team, who's CEILING is HIGHER THAN ANY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE!!!! BLAZERMANIA IS BACK!!!!!

Believe It!!!!!!!  :)

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/03/2008 1:03 PM

1 more thing Andre, Zach Randolph was NEVER their best player, he was their BIGGEST problem....ZERO team play & ZERO concept of how to "really play the game"...gettin him for a can of "spam" woulda been fine with me. He is BY FAR the BIGGEST BLACK HOLE when he gets the ball I have EVER SEEN!!! Total piece of sh*t and easily one of the most OVERRATED Blazers all time by just looking at his numbers......Cheers to Pritchard, Nate & Paull Allen. We are back!!!

 

posted by Jeff Bonds on 10/04/2008 8:30 AM

Could be the most exciting team to watch this year - Definitely going to Blazers/Lakers this year

 

posted by andre gomes on 10/04/2008 11:09 AM

I know GoodFella, that's why the word best in best player was between comas :)

The turnaround of the Blazers was his departure from the team. In his last season with the Blazers, Randolph missed 13 games later on the season and coincidently or not, the team went 8-5 ATS on that span.

Also note that with Steve Blake's injury, Sergio Rodriguez will be the team's starter at the PG position.

 

posted by RJ_Bell on 10/04/2008 11:22 AM

Love the conversation!

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/04/2008 12:39 PM

The turnaround of the team was spearheaded by Kevin Pritchard period!!! End of story on that Andre. And Sergio Rodriguez WILL NOT be the starting PG oon opening night. That flat out aint happening.

 

posted by andre gomes on 10/04/2008 1:35 PM

I'm talking about preseason games ;)

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/04/2008 1:44 PM

White Chocoalte will be LUCKY to make the 12 man ACTIVE roster Andre.......you fail to realize just HOW MUCH point guard Brandon Roy plays 4 the Blazers........Dont mean to disrespect you here Andre, but I KNOW THIS TEAM better than anyone here at pregame with the exception of SteveBeav. Oh ya 1 more thing....there is NO CHANCE that Greg Oden plays more than 35 games this year, ABSOLUTELY NONE..................wink....wink..........:)

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/04/2008 1:45 PM

I meant "Spanish Chocolate" (((Sergio))).....me bad......lol

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/04/2008 3:11 PM

I know Spanish is "getting his chance" from Nate to START the pre-season.....however, he IS NOT even one of the top 3 PG's on this team.......B.Roy is the teams BEST Point Guard, but it takes a toll on him handling the rock so much and takin the hits he talks by crossing fools over, cuz he's such a mismatch 4 about 90% of the league........Nate knows you gotta ride him, but be smart bout it too...........cant fukin wait for the NBA!!!!   :)

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/04/2008 3:15 PM

I hate this NO EDIT sh*t in the blogs....I'm a TYPO waitin' to happen........anyway, it should say: "crosing fools over handling the rock so much, he takes a beating by the bigs gettin' to the stripe as much as he does.....he is as RELENTLESS as D. Wade & MJ gettin' to the paint & stripe.......

 

posted by Stevebeav on 10/05/2008 1:54 AM

Hey, tried to get in on this earlier - kept having log-in issues...

Goodfella is definitely right about Prichard - it's getting to the point where opposing GM's simply will not return his calls during and up to Draft Day.

As GF indicated - I too cannot argue too much with most of this breakdown:  HOWEVER - I would add a few observations in reference to a few statements made here:

"...there is just one obstacle, which may prevent this team from improving even more: injuries!"

I WOULD ADDRESS PORTLAND'S AREAS OF WEAKNESS A BIT DIFFERENTLY,

1.  3-POINT SHOOTING:  Rudy Fernandez seen by many in these part as the key Savior in this Dept., but one must keep in mind his adjustment to the much deeper line is not going to be easy - and from look of things in first scrimmage, it may be longer adjustment period than hoped for...

2.  YOUTH:  As you mentioned - Portland is youngest team in NBA - more than injuries this is a precursor to below .500 in close games (> 4 pts).  

BOTH of these factors will put Portland's enviable versatility to the test.

ABOVE ALL ELSE - the recent RULES CHANGES, SUBTLE YET SIGNIFICANT changes in Zoning Schemes and the new allowance of the other-wise disguised schemes that Pop, Karl, and The Zen and especially SLOAN in Utah is the No. 1 Challenge for Coach Mac - especially with departure of Defense/Rebounding guru Tim Gurgerich from Coaching Staff...far more than the scope of any injury possibilities which always occur.

These rules changes will put even more of a premium on perimeter shooting as counter to sagging zones - this is good news and bad news for Portland...

Good News is LaMarcus Aldridge remarkable and rapid improvement in his 17-21 foot elbow curl shot - once thought to be a detriment, now a reliable asset -  scouts, reports and every account imaginable honestly raves about the ever improving Aldridge - who has improved even more from yr 2 to 3 (this is still listed as his yr '3').  This will be an essential piece of the 'Big Line-up'  I truly think the Natl guys have not been able to keep up with Portland's amazing learning curve - even ESPN's NBA 'Insiders' lists Aldridge as one of Portland's "Softies"....just not the case anymore:  6'11", 247....soft?  

Notwithstanding the 3-balls and youth, Portland's Strength's are as numerous as they are startling:

1.  YOUTH!:  'Problem'  being young - maybe, but the injury possibilities are somewhat different with these young guys - all the injuries the 'Franchise' B Roy suffered through - and PLAYED thru las year may have sidelined a 30+ players more than half a season.

2.  VERSATILITY:  Portland and Nate McMillan will clearly be able to take game to opponent this year, clear reversal from McMillan's time with Portland thus far.  

McMillan has hinted for years his desire to force opponents line-ups to fit his OWN plan of attack - very similar to how Dantoni ran with Marion and/or Bell vs big teams to force them to go small, ect.    

3 major line-up shifts with many interchangeable parts, make Portland's options truly limitless.

FAST / RUN-GUN:  Bayless/Blake/Roy/Rodriguez (1/2), Fernandez/Outlaw/Webster (3), Aldridge/Frye (4), Oden/Pryzbilla (5).  Mac indicated vs Big lumbering half Court oriented teams - even BIG west Teams Portland could get run-outs, and force the hands) of Rockets, Spurs, even Celts and Philly when they play them.

MID TEMPO, FINESSE, 1/2 TEMPO: Ideal Lineups with Roy, Webster, Outlaw, Aldridge Pyzybilla - same unit that out-ran Lakers in late season Portland win - a line-up alteration that Blazers all-but stumbled upon with laboring B Roy - proved to be too much for Gasol and Radmanivic, and Odom to continue to fly out to perimeter to defend long corner  and side mid-range shots from unreachable deep pockets zone scheme of Lakers - even 3 'FOURS" on court is nearly impossible for any team to match up without abandoning one's own standard rotation.

HALF-COURT, BIG LINE-UP:  Most obvious, with Glass Cleaner, G.O.' s presence in middle - goes with out saying that a lineup with Oden, Pryzbilla, Aldridge Roy and Blake may not score in bunches - but will clean glass all night - and get to the line and fair share of 2nd/3rd shots.  

Last Advantage Portland has in SPADES -

Defense.

The Blazers were by no means a poor defensive team last season. They were eighth in field-goal percentage defense and eighth in points allowed. McMillan figures all the defensive numbers will improve because of Oden, the 7-foot rookie center whose forte is defense.

The following Blazers are rated by Hollinger, and NBA 'In' "above average defenders":

Przybilla, Aldridge, Roy, Blake, Bayless.  

Frye, injured for next 8 weeks, has been in NBA Top 10 in Blocked Shots and Off reb per min every year (3) in League, also.  

Lastly - for what it's worth - as my fellow Blazer aficionado, Goodfella aptly stated, Blazermainia is back with a passion.

As GF and I know from seeing these guys all the time - day and night in this Blazer-Crazed region - this is not your Father's 'Jail Blazers' squad....hard to put this into context - but WE FREAKING LOVE our BLAZERS up here!  I really have been all over the place - lived in South Texas - around Cowboy Fan), born and lived in N Va (Skins fans), lived in N Wisc, (Pack Country), and This Team is OUR ONLY Game In Town - The Portland Trailblazers may truly have one of the most loyal fervent fan base - as much as a City can have FOR AN NBA Team (with some perspective, of course),

BUT - I really can't remember such an era of expectation like this year and this team!  This place is just buzzing about this group - ESP. HOW THEY SEEM to BE AS HUMAN BEINGS...and of course, that bar was set pretty low in the 'Trader Bob' Whitsit, Sheed / Bonzi / DLDS (Dirty little Dope Smoker) Damon S / Easy Rider, ect days....

I know I FOR ONE don't hold that nearly as important as a lot of these folks - a guys' free to do what he wants with his life - but that Era INTENSELY bothered Blazermainiacs - even more so on the Heels of the 89 - 93 2nd great era of Drexler, Buck, and Terry Porter, ect., even the short-lived 77 Championship Era is vividly and repeatedly referenced here...

From Report in Oregonian about 'FAN FEST', Blazers First Scrimmage Open to the Public:

".....Before we get to the Fan Fest details - like Greg Oden being rather nondescript, Rudy being quite memorable, Brandon being Brandon and LaMarcus showing why everyone's talking so highly about him - I have to say something about the environment at the Rose Garden.

To me, Friday's free scrimmage at the Rose Garden was the latest, and most telling, indication of how popular this team has become in this community. This was the 11th time this thing has been put on, and never can I remember more than 5,000 attending.  At any rate, the place was electric.

This team can be anything it wants to be."

I'll leave it at that for now....

 

posted by Stevebeav on 10/05/2008 2:14 AM

Only team that may come close to matching Portland's size and strength of BIG line-up, is in East:  

Philly (Igudalla, Brand, et al)

Almost forgot to mention, Oden has been forced to 'take it easy' - very much the couped up kid in a candy store - first 2 workouts came to a stop twice due to Oden's dominance

players / coaches / EVERYONE......litterally stopped moving and play was stopped due to .....

laughter....

Heard many eyewitness accounts that G.O. 'Moved several players' to obtain the ball - wheeled, and nearly tore off the rim with repeated 'Chin-Up' dunks - so dominant that play was stopped by dominance-induced, "that-did-not-really-happen, that-man-just-cannot-be-that-strong" laughter....

I truthfully heard this from THREE eye witness accounts.

The man is Brasky himself.  

OH - and the Scrimmage was officially estimated to have an attendance of 12k plus - but as 'Baldy' reported, the Blazers 'low-balled the estimate', and the entire lower bowl was jammed - and several thou in the 300 level upper bowl - at least 14-15k

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/05/2008 1:51 PM

Just OUTSTANDING stuff & indepth look into OUR Blazers Steve!!! GREAT STUFF!! Oden is SO HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE......just cant get hurt again......Enjoyed the read Steve. talk at you soon!!

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/26/2008 10:20 PM

Andre- How many games do you think Portland will win this year & do you think they will get a top 6 seed??

 

posted by andre gomes on 10/27/2008 10:07 AM

GoodFella, we all know the Blazers are a team with huge potential and sooner or later that will be reflected on the court. However, they are still a young team and having to manage the 82 games of the season and being consistent at the same time isn't easy.

Looking to the Western conference and what happened last season, I would say just Denver and Golden State will do much worse than last season. The other 7 teams which will fight for the Playoffs are all teams with a lot of experience. I think their line of 44,5 wins is acceptable. Their schedule in early season is brutal and a bad start on such a young team may be hard to be handled.

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/27/2008 10:13 AM

Agree with all of that, but..........I want to know before the season starts.....IF Oden does play say, 70+ games, do you think Portland will make the playoffs??

 

posted by Stevebeav on 10/27/2008 10:29 AM

PORTLAND STARTED 5-12 LAST YEAR....

AND EARLY SEASON SCHEDULE IS THE SIMPLY THE MOST RIDICULOUS I HAVE EVER SEEN...

15 OF FIRST 22 ON ROAD - WITH WELL OVER HALF OF THOSE VS PLAYOFF TEAMS FROM LAST YEAR.

LAST YEARS' EXPERIENCE WEATHERING STORM WILL PROBABLY HELP, IN MY OPINION - COULD HAVE EASILY CASHED IN SEASON, AND PLAYED FOR LOTTERY POSITIONING, GAVE YOUNG PROJECT SIGNIFICANT MINUTES, ECT.

PRETTY RESILIENT GROUP, IMO.

 

posted by Matty O'Shea on 10/27/2008 10:35 AM

I was at the South Point sportsbook here in Vegas on Sunday, and they had the Blazers at 8/1 to win the championship.  That shows you how much respect they are getting already...

 

posted by Stevebeav on 10/27/2008 10:45 AM

SAN ANTONIO WIN TTL, GOING DOWN NOW:  56, 58, 63, 59, 57 GAMES WON IN LAST 5 YEARS....YR OLDER AND AS INDICATED BEFORE, I'D CALL EM' "PAINFULLY PREDICTABLE".  

DALLAS WITH UNPREDICTABLE JOSH HOWARD AND ERIC DAMPIER, WITH MUCH OLDER BACK-COURT - INCLUDING KIDD WHOM LOGGED THE MOST MIN OF ALL OLYMPIC USA PLAYERS, ARE PROBABLY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THEIR SLIP/SLIDE, TOO....

PHOENIX REALLY ACCELERATED THEIR TIME MACHINE - FORGETTING THAT SHAQ IS 36, STEVE NASH IS 34!  AND YES, DENVER REALLY WILL MISS CANBY'S DD BOARDS IMMENSELY,

I TRULY THINK PORTLAND OPPORTUNITY TO LEAP-FROG AT LEAST ONE (OR MORE) TEAMS IN THE DAL / S ANT / DEN / PHX CLUSTER IS VERY GOOD....

CALL ME BIASED - JUST THE WAY I SEE IT

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/27/2008 11:04 AM

Without question, these 5 teams will go backwards from last year IMO......Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Nuggets & Warriors. Spurs are the Spurs still & should win 50-53 games again. But I dont see them hitting over 55 wins this season.

 

posted by andre gomes on 10/27/2008 3:32 PM

If Oden plays more than 70 games, than the Blazers have all the conditions to be in the Playoffs.

I agree with Steve when he says last season's experience was important and it will benefit them.

However, last season they were big dogs and they had no expectations. This season everybody is expecting them to reach the Playoffs.

Last season they were the underdog in 50 of their 82 games! That's 60%! That won't happen this season for sure and that will be the main challenge of the team this season.

 

posted by GoodFella on 10/27/2008 3:39 PM

NOBODY better than Nate to MAKE SURE that happens. And with the kind of FLAT OUT LEADER that B-Roy and Oden are, that is SO HUGE for ANY TEAM, young or old.....Like I've said before many times, Portland has THE BEST COACH and THE BEST Front Office in the NBA, with 2 of the leagues TOP 5 YOUNG STUDS on the same team with mindsets like old-school katz that came before them.....just SO RARE nowadays......

 

posted by GoodFella on 04/14/2009 12:39 PM

GREAT PRE-season discussion about my Trail Blazers in here!!

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