Sports Betting

Wake Forest vs. Kentucky

GM of Picks — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 14:18:00 GMT

Kentucky is 4-0 ATS last 4 NCAA Tourney games as a favorite.
They are in that role Saturday vs. Wake Forest. Cheat Sheet
Wake Forest 27% of bets, Kentucky 73% (SportsbookSpy.com)

Weekend Short Blog #1: NBA RoundUp for 3/20

Dan Bebe — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 06:04:00 GMT

Second verse, same as the first; another day, another play that covers for 47 minutes, and loses, somehow, in the final 60 seconds. Just par for the course, these days.

A good buddy of mine reminded me, though, that while it's very easy to get caught up in our bad luck - and believe me, this is about as bad as the luck will get - we are still RIGHT WHERE WE WANTED TO BE at this point in the season when we set our goals a few months back. We've taken a bit of a circuitous route, repeatedly going, roughly, 7-6 every week for the month of January, then dominating February before curling off a bit of a stinker in March so far. But, when all is said and done, we're winning, and if we try to forget how brutal this last week has been and just look at the results as a whole, I think we can all be pretty pleased.

It's that fresh taste of getting shot in the heart the last couple nights that gives us the FEELING that things aren't going well, and short term, let's be honest, they're not. The last week has been riddled with bad beats, injuries, overtime periods that ruin perfectly good bets, and general malaise. But the bad breaks won't last forever - they never do. We're righting the ship, and there is certainly something to the notion that when it takes these kinds of endings just to beat us, we're onto something, and we're going to keep hammering it until the storm stops.

I think I've figured out the PERFECT middle ground on blog writing, by the way, to keep me from losing my precious sanity. On WEEKENDS, each game will be LEANS ONLY, and you guys can feel free to ask about any particular game. I'll respond to questions on weekends specifically, but you'll still see which way I'm leaning on EVERY game on the card. It just won't be in eloquent prose, like usual! I'll try to include the most important angle I'm considering in each game, though obviously there are many others going unlisted. Let's see how this goes.

Sports Wagering

Bulls @ Sixers - This line is OFF. Lean to Philly (yes, even though they took a metaphorical dump on us last night), and lean to Over.

Raptors @ Nets - This line is OFF. Lean to the Nets (Toronto on back-to-back), lean to the Over.

Bobcats @ Heat - Miami by 6 with a total of 182.5. Lean to Charlotte (Miami just can't get over that hump), and lean to the Over.

Warriors @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. Lean to Warriors (GS off huge loss, Grizzlies giving up on season), and lean to the Over.

Hornets @ Jazz - This line is OFF. No lean on the side, slight lean to the Over.

Bucks @ Nuggets - Denver by 9 with a total of 205. Lean to Denver (you guys know my take on this situation, and add 2-OT - yikes!), and lean to the Under.

Celtics @ Mavericks - Dallas by 4 with a total of 202. Lean to the Celtics (because no one expects them to play strong two nights in a row), lean to the Under.

NBA Notes: Cavs back on track (how about Nets?)

Larry Ness — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 21:06:00 GMT

The Cavs entered the All Star break with an NBA-best 43-11 mark. The team's 115-104 win over the Magic (last year's Eastern Conference champs) on Feb 11 gave them 13 straight wins, matching a franchise record (remains an NBA season-high for the 2009-10 season). The Cavs fell three games short of the NBA's longest win streak entering the All-Star break, a record 16 straight which was posted by the 1990-91 Los Angeles Lakers. The Cavs acquired Antwan Jamison from the Wizards right after the break but promptly saw their 13-game winning streak ended by losing at Denver 118-116 in OT.

James finished that game with a triple-double (43-13-15) but despite becoming the first NBA player with at least 43 points, 13 rebounds, 15 assists, two steals and four blocks in the same game, the Cavs couldn't overcome Carmelo (40 points) leading the Nuggets to the OT win. Jamison was ready to play in Cleveland's second game back but shot 0-for-12 from the floor in his first appearance as a Cav, as Cleveland lost 110-93 at Charlotte. Up next was a game in Orlando vs the Magic but despite Jamison getting 19 points and eight boards (9-of-14 FGs) and Shaq scoring 20 points on 9-of-10 shooting, the Cavs were all of a sudden on a three-game losing streak after losing, 101-95.

The Cavs would end their mini-slump with a 10-point win over the Hornets on Feb 23 and then routed the Celtics in Boston 108-88 in their next game. However, Shaq left that game with a sprained right thumb and a few days later had surgery on that injured thumb. He is expected to miss about two months and the team is hopeful he will return for at least part of the playoffs (we'll see?). However, the Cavs have not missed a beat, as since losing those first three games back from the break, the Cavs have won 11 of 12 games through March 18, although they are just 6-5 ATS in that span.

Cleveland's lone loss this current stretch was 92-85 at Milwaukee on March 6 but let me note that the Bucks have gone 12-2 SU (11-2-1 ATS) since Feb 19. Two days after that loss to the Bucks, the Cavs edged the Spurs 97-95 in Cleveland for the team's 50th win of the season. The Cavaliers were the first NBA team to 50 wins in a season for the first time in their history and it shouldn't go without mention that in each of the last two years, the two teams to reach 50 wins first went on to win the title ('08-09 Lakers and '07-08 Celtics).

My February 16 Ness Notes column anticipated a matchup between the Cavs (LeBron) and Lakers (Kobe) in this year's NBA Finals, a year delayed. Little has changed since then, although the Magic may feel as if they will have something to sat about that in the East while the Nuggets and "new-look" Mavs could "upset the apple cart" in the West. I've always believed that point-differential is the best indicator of a team's strength. The Cavs lead the NBA this year at plus-7.2 PPG, with only the Magic (plus-6.9 PPG) and the Lakers (plus-6.0 PPG) joining them as the only teams this season with a scoring margin of at least six per game.

The Cavs led the league in point-differential last year at 8.9 PPG but lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Magic. The Lakers, who owned last year's second-best point-differential at plus-7.7 PPG, went on to best the Magic in the NBA Finals, four games-to one. The team which has owned the year's best point-differential during the regular season has won six of the last 10 NBA titles, including the 2007-08 Celtics who finished with an impressive plus-10.3 point-differential. The NBA's first season came way back in 1946-47 and over its history, has seen just seven teams post point-differentials of better than plus-10.0 PPG.

The best-ever margin of victory for a season is owned by the 1971-72 LA Lakers at 12.3 PPG. That championship team won a league-record 33 consecutive games and its 69-13 record stood as a single-season best until the 1995-96 season. MJ's Bulls went 72-10 that year but fell just short of the Lakers average margin of victory, outscoring opponents by 12.2 PPG! Only one other NBA team has finished a year with a winning margin of above 12.0 PPG and that was the 1970-71 champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. Led by Lew Alcindor (what happened to that guy?) and the Big O, the Bucks finished 66-16 that year, outscoring opponents by an identical margin of 12.2 PPG.

The Bill Russell-led Celtics won 11 titles in 13 years but those legendary teams were able to outscore their opponents by more than nine PPG in only 1961-62 season (9.2)! The famous Wilt Chamberlain-led Philadelphia 76ers team of 1966-67 that went 68-13, outscored opponents by just 9.4 PPG in their championship season. More recently, Kareem and Magic led the Lakers to five titles in a nine-year period beginning in the 1979-80 season but just once, in the 1986-87 season, outscored opponents by as many as nine PPG (9.3)! Bird's Celtics won three titles from 1980-81 to 1985-86, outscoring opponents by more than nine PPG in just the 1985-86 season (9.4).

MJ's Bulls also outscored opponents by more than 10.0 PPG in both the 1991-92 season (10.4) and the 1996-97 season (10.8), both of which years ended in titles. If you have been counting, I've listed six teams with point-differentials of 10.0 or better. All six went on to win NBA championships in those season but there is a team which outscored opponents by better than 10.0 PPG (actually 11.1) and did not win an NBA title in that season. The 1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks were not able to repeat as NBA champions despite going 63-19.

That was the year the Lakers went 69-13 and set the all-record for point-differential (12.3) on their way to the Lakers' first NBA championship in Los Angeles since moving from Minneapolis. The Lakers beat the Bucks four games-to-two in the Western Conference finals, as West and Wilt out-lasted the Bucks of the Big O and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, a player who looked an awful like Lew Alcindor, the man who led the Bucks to the title in the 1970-71 season.

The Cavs own a 5 1/2-game lead over the Magic for the East's No. 1 seed (Cavs have 13 games left and the Magic 12), while the Lakers (14 games left) own a 3 1/2-game lead over the Nuggets (13) and a four-game lead over the Mavs (14) for the No.1 seed in the West. However, at the other end of the 'food chain,' the 7-61 Nets (with 14 games left in their season) need three more wins in order to avoid the title of "Worst NBA of All Time." It's fairly common knowledge that the 1972-73 Philadelphia Sixers finished 9-73 that season and have been the standard bearers of futility for nearly four decades.

The Nets open a four-game homestand on Saturday but get the Raptors and Heat in the first two games, both of whom are fighting for playoff berths (and positioning). Then it's home to the Kings (currently 6-28 on the road) and the Pistons (7-26 on the road). A visit to Chicago is next (Bulls have lost nine in a row from Feb 27-Mar 18) and then back home for three more games. Problem here is that the Spurs and Suns are up first. Some good news comes with New Orleans being the final team of the three-game stretch and by the time the Hornets arrive in New Jersey on April 3, they'll be eliminated from the West's playoff race.

That stretch of seven home contests in eight games (with the lone away game being with slumping Chicago) gives the Nets a realistic chance to get to double digits in wins. If not, the best chances for wins in the team's final six games come April 4 at Washington (12-22 at home) and home to the Bulls on April 9. I've already discussed the Bulls situation and as for the Wizards, their "Big Three" now reside in Cleveland (Jamison), Dallas (Butler) and at home due to a suspension (Arenas). It's hard not to be rooting for the Nets to get those three more wins.

Join me back here early next week with an update on the Big Dance.

Good luck, Larry

Louisville vs. California

GM of Picks — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:49:00 GMT

Louisville is 1-5 ATS last 6 non conference
games. They take on California Friday. Cheat Sheet
Louisville 70% of bets, California 30% (SportsbookSpy.com)

Feeling Kinda Cranky: NBA RoundUp for 3/19

Dan Bebe — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 06:06:00 GMT

Who am I kidding? It's March Madness - NBA is second fiddle until Monday. Depending on viewership, there may be a day or two during March Madness that goes without a blog.

Just be forewarned.

In any case, the whole card is FREE today, so let's see what's up.

Sports Wagering

Pistons @ Pacers - This line is OFF. Things have gone from ugly to uglier for the Pistons, as this team, that for a couple weeks looked like they had some pride, have regressed to mid-season awful form. But I do have some amount of pity for them - Detroit has just been hammered by injuries all season long, and just when you thought they might be able to play out the season with a mostly full roster, at least trying to learn each others' idiosyncrasies and developing some chemistry, Rodney Stuckey passes out on the floor in a very scary, chaotic moment in Cleveland. Since then, the Pistons played well for about 3 games, looked like they might be able to continue to compete, and then watched Tayshaun Prince get snapped in half on his teammates knee. Prince is playing through the pain, but the Pistons have just looked bad in their last couple games. I'll give a little credit - they played the Cavs tough for a while, but the 4th quarter implosion, in my opinion, erased their credibility going forward. Today, they tackle the Pacers, who suddenly look like they care. It took 70 games, and complete and utter worthlessness of every game, so I guess the Pacers play well when there's no pressure? They've only won 2 of their last 7 games SU, but they've covered 6, so they're getting all kinds of value against the spread. Now, this game might be a tad different, since they're playing a pathetic opponent, but I don't think we can overlook the fact that Indy has actually won a few in a row at home, and they seem to know how to score against the Pistons ultra-slow offense. Despite playing to 2 unders, Indiana has won both games and covered both. The obvious concern is the health of Danny Granger, so that gives me pause, but I'm going to go ahead and offer a lean to the Pacers, and a lean to the Under, since Indiana plays a much slower game with Granger hurt.

Thunder @ Raptors - Oklahoma by 1.5 with a total of 209. This will be the second straight road game that the Thunder will be 1.5-point favorites. And, after getting out to a very quick start against the Bobcats, the Thunder folded up shop, and just got hammered from about the 3-minute mark of the 2nd quarter on. It was really unlike what we've seen from the Thunder this season, and I just have to wonder if they're hitting a little bit of a mental wall with the end of the season in sight, and a playoff spot virtually locked up. James Harden is out for a couple weeks and Jeff Green got hurt in the last game, as well, but as long as the Thunder have Kevin Durant, they'll remain more than competitive. I just wonder if the Raptors are starting to turn a corner. They've been a downright terrible ATS wager over the last month, going 1-10-1 since a narrow home win over Washington back on February 20th. That being said, they got a monster home win over a team that had really picked on them this year, courtesy of a buzzer-beating jumper from Chris Bosh (over the Hawks). Is that the wake-up call for Toronto? They still didn't cover in that game against Atlanta, so it's tough to know when they've truly hit that point where they go back to being a decent bet. Also, the Thunder creamed Toronto in Oklahoma a little under 2 weeks ago, when Toronto was without Bosh. Does the Thunder just go right back to beating on them, or can the Raptors play them tough? I think if Toronto was getting a point or two more, I might be more inclined to like them, but as it is, I happen to believe this line is pretty fair. No line value means it's a little tougher to find a place to start. With young teams, though, it's easy for one loss to become two - I lean Toronto. If Toronto is winning this game, they're going to score, so if I lean Raptors, I have to lean Over, but this is a weak, weak series of leans in this one.

Bobcats @ Hawks - This line is OFF. Charlotte is fighting through a ton of injuries, but they've been doing a fine job of battling lately, both at home and on the road, only suffering an odd letdown loss in Indiana. This game isn't really a letdown or look-ahead spot for Charlotte, and if indeed they get Gerald Wallace back, I expect them to really give a strong effort. On Atlanta's side, they're coming home off getting beat on a last-second shot in Toronto, and really, they've been scuffling a bit. They got to pick on the Nets again for a win, and technically, they have covered 3 straight, but I'm still just not all that impressed with them. I guess the stats would show otherwise, but it just feels like the Hawks are ripe for a failed cover, and potentially another loss. They are very, very good at home, which certainly makes me think twice, and we've also seen how road teams have been struggling a bit at this point in the season, so I remain hesitant. Also, these teams have played twice this season and the home team has won easily in each of those games. Historically, Charlotte has played the Hawks pretty close in Atlanta, but not in the meeting earlier this year, which occurred in late January, so Charlotte was already playing pretty well. I don't think this game truly warrants a play on the side, I would recommend a PASS on the side. As far as the total is concerned, these teams play two completely different styles, yet they've played to 2 overs despite one team scoring in the 80's in each game. There haven't been many free throws, but the tempo has been closer to what Atlanta wants, so depending on where this line comes out, I'm looking at another Over.

Sixers @ Knicks - Knicks by 3.5 with a total of 208. Well, first note, this line is pretty fair, since New York played in Philadelphia 4 days ago as 2.5-point underdogs, so the 6-point home court swing is in full effect. Since that game, the Knicks got blasted in Boston, and the Sixers finally got a win, at home, over the Nets. So, does that mean the Sixers have turned a corner? I doubt it, but it is certainly worth noting that the Sixers are a much stronger ATS bet on the road than at home (10-23 ATS versus 19-16 ATS) - there's just no comparison. So, certainly, if you're going to take the Sixers, the road would be the venue. On top of that, we have the revenge, since New York just beat Philly in their building. Philly's a bad ATS team, so they're not going to have a strong revenge record, but this game being so close to the other makes me think it will be a bit more pronounced than usual. Plus, does anyone in the League really want to be the team that's consistently worse than New York? Philadelphia has actually lost both home games to the Knicks this year, but beat New York in the Big Apple in the two teams' first meeting. I'm inclined to think it happens again. One added bonus - this will be the Knicks first home game since March 8, so they've been gone for almost 2 weeks. There is definitely going to be some sluggishness for the Knicks, while Philly is rested, and finally a little confident after that win over Jersey. I lean Sixers to get some measure of revenge. On the total, they went over in New York, under twice in Philly, and now the Knicks come home to host - there were just a ton of missed shots in the last game, and I think both teams get out a little bit more. I lean Over.

Cavaliers @ Bulls - This line is OFF. This spread is liable to be gargantuan, especially for a Bulls team playing at home. It sounds like Derrick Rose might want to give it a go in this one, but I just don't know if we can rely on either team to get it done. Allow me to explain. In the last game, the Cavaliers got a win over Indiana that locked up the Central Division, so they're comfortably in the driver's seat when it comes to the Playoffs - what reason do they have to really go all out in this road affair against a Bulls team playing with largely a scrap-heap team of reserves. They're like the Warriors, but they're trying to win with the defense of these career backups and rookies. Okay, so if the Cavs TRY, they should be able to win going away, and who knows, Lebron might very well orchestrate a beating so furious that it makes the city of Chicago quiver just slightly. Lebron might want to show the NBA that they've got to come through Cleveland if they want to stop a freight train, in which case, they should cover. But if the Cavs were out partying a bit late, maybe getting in some altercations with Braylon Edwards, they might be flat here, and those Bulls backups, with proper effort, might keep this thing close. The issue, or I guess one more issue, is that the Bulls are coming home off a 4-game road trip, so they haven't been home in a while, and we all know how dangerous that can be. Unfortunately, when the dust settles, this is another game where I recommend PASS on the side. I kind of like the Over on the total, as I feel like Chicago is going to want to get as many easy buckets as possible against a much better team, and I fail to see how the Cavs are going to be at full focus in a fairly meaningless game.

Celtics @ Rockets - Boston by 1.5 with a total of 203. I am trying to find every possible way to back the Rockets in this game, but I'm not sure I'm fully sold on the situation. Boston has really been turning up the juice, winning 3 straight at home in decisive fashion with a bad road loss to the Cavs mixed in there among the home games. The solid stretch for Boston has really been marked by extremely hot shooting - their defense still isn't where it needs to be to be strong in the playoffs. The shooting has been borderline nutty at times, with Boston putting up 122, 119 and 109 in their last 3 home games. The question is whether they can continue to rain in buckets on the road. The Cavs defense is miles better than that of the Rockets, so Boston should get at least a few open looks, but Houston is a team on a mission right now, making one final push to try to slip into the playoffs. It's going to be hard; damn near impossible, really, since Houston needs Portland or San Antonio to roll over, and Houston can only really do 1 game of damage themselves, as they play the Spurs in early April. So, all they can do now is try to win every game, one day at a time, and maybe hope for a miracle. So far, so good, too. Houston has won 4 straight, including a home win over the Nuggets, and a potential season-ending win over the Grizzlies, who look like a prime fade candidate with their postseason hopes all but eliminated. This is a very, very tough call, considering Boston seems to be on one of their scary hot streaks, and it doesn't seem smart to step in front of that madness. Still, I think Houston lays it all on the line, and it's tough to fade a team giving every ounce of strength they have. I lean Houston on the side. On the total, with the way Boston is scoring, I can't imagine this thing stays under - Houston loves to run, and you know they want to get Boston out of whatever offensive or defensive set they're trying to run. I lean Over.

Warriors @ Spurs - This line is OFF. Stephen Curry's injury is certainly at the forefront of this game, but I can tell you right now it won't matter. The Warriors don't stand a chance in this one. Don't get me wrong, I love Golden State, and the comeback they mounted against the Hornets was a thing of beauty. I'm fully aware they've covered 5 games in a row, too, and I know I've said that a bad team that plays full tilt on every possession is one of the most valuable ATS gold mines on the planet, but there just comes a time where you have to know a team is going to run out of steam. That night is tonight. The Spurs are such a savvy veteran club that they understand what it takes to slow down this Warriors team, and playing on the road has not been a Warriors strength this year. It's not easy to dominate a team like the Spurs have done to Golden State (and the Clippers, for that matter), especially when you are a marquee club like the Spurs, and are constantly laying more points than you should against a lowly team like Golden State. But for whatever reason, the Spurs are 23-2 their last 25 home games against the Warriors, and 16-9 ATS, so they're not just winning, they're winning big, including a 14-point home win earlier this year, just barely clearing the 13-point spread. The Spurs defense has been ramping up lately, as well, and I just don't think a wise, old team like San Antonio gets caught up in the silliness that Golden State manages to spin on a lot of their less motivated opponents. The Spurs are playing to get ready for the playoffs, and it shows - they're coming off an ugly loss in Orlando, but that's just fuel - I lean to the big home favorite (or soon to be big favorite, since there's no line right now). I also lean to the Under, since I see the Spurs being quite effective in dictating the pace.

Jazz @ Suns - This line is OFF. It sounds like Deron Williams and Amare will both likely play, but I suppose oddsmakers could get nailed on this game if one guy makes up his mind late and they've been taking huge action on one side or the other all game. This should be a hugely entertaining showdown in Phoenix, with the Suns coming off scoring 152 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, and the Jazz coming off scoring 122 against those same Wolves on Wednesday! Now that both teams have shared the same appetizer, it's time to go head-to-head for the 3rd time this year. Is this finally the time the Suns break through? Phoenix has outplayed Utah for about 72 minutes of the 96 they've played this season, but it hasn't been nearly enough, as the Suns have collapsed late both times. It's tough to put your trust in a team, like Phoenix, that has shown a tendency to just fall apart against one particular opponent when it matters most. Now, for what it's worth, the las time these teams played the Suns were playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so to see Utah slowly wear them down wasn't all that insane, but this time they don't have an excuse. The Suns have had 2 days to rest up and game-plan, and the Jazz, well, the Jazz are still just a mighty tough opponent. Can't say much else about them - they will play you tough for all 48 minutes, so if you're the Suns, you know you have to pace yourself and make some plays down the stretch. Double revenge hasn't meant a great deal this season, and Phoenix seems to be getting away from playing that little defense that made such a huge difference for them. This is another ultra-tough call, but I happen to think the Suns make a few plays late to finally get over the hump with Utah, so I lean Phoenix. The last meeting went over the total by 11 points, so let's see where this one comes out - I'd love to lean Under, but we need the right line to do so.

Wizards @ Blazers - Portland by 12.5 with a total of 190.5. Well, this one is sheer motivational handicapping. We have the Blazers, winners of 4 straight and 7 of 8 games straight up, going against the Wizards, losers of 9 in a row, and clearly a team that has just about called it a season. But that, unfortunately, is why this spread is so darn high. The Wizards have been losing pretty consistently by 10-15 points, so this spread is right in that window, and that is somewhat disconcerting. I suppose you could call this game something of a semi look-ahead for Portland, with Phoenix coming up on Sunday, but I'm not sure Portland is really doing any of that these days, knowing that every win, even against weak competition, brings them one step closer to the season goal of getting to the playoffs. They also know San Antonio lost in Orlando in their last game, so a win here would bring them a little closer to avoiding the Lakers in the first round, as well. What does Washington have to play for, really? The Rose Garden is extremely hostile, and the Blazers are scoring the ball extremely well right now, cracking 100 points in every game except one since Brandon Roy got truly healthy back on February 23rd. So, they're scoring, they're playing defense, and they're dangerous right now. But can they cover this monstrous spread? Well, I think I need a bigger reason to fade the Blazers if I'm going to take points with a team that has given up; I lean Portland, but just a tiny, tiny bit. On the total, I just don't trust Washington to score. They haven't broken 100 in their last 10 games, so anything in the mid-190's or higher, and I think we have to figure Washington won't do their part - I lean Under.

Bucks @ Kings - Milwaukee by 3 with a total of 197. Oddsmakers are keeping these road lines for the Bucks nice and low, as it seems Milwaukee hasn't quite proven itself when they've had to go far, far from home. The Bucks have really been rolling against teams from the East, but just got schooled by the Clippers in their last game, and I have to wonder if they bounce back, or if they continue to struggle on this road trip. Really, that game in LA was probably the Buck's worst effort since a February 17th home loss to Houston coming out of the All Star Break. It was almost surreal. It was pretty clear going into the game the Clippers were going to give a strong effort, as they had just been embarrassed at home by the Hornets, but to see the Bucks play that poorly was something of a surprise, especially at the defensive end. You can bet Scott Skiles was not a happy camper between games. Now we see how the Bucks respond to a rare loss - do they bounce back and play the Kings ultra tough, or do they suffer another loss before trying to rebound. The Kings actually beat the Bucks in Milwaukee in the only previous meeting, so I don't think Milwaukee will take the Kings lightly, but that was an awfully long time ago. Also, the Kings are coming off a hard-fought game with the Lakers, so there is the possibility for a letdown, considering how much energy it always takes to play a rival. The Bucks are starting to get some credibility, and this line shows that, but their drive to play hard on the West coast is still in question. The Kings are better now than they have been at almost any point in 2010, and while I think the Bucks win, I think the Kings keep it close - this game is a coin flip, but I'd always lean to the dog in a coin-flip spot, since they're most likely to make that final shot to get under the spread. On the total, we know the Bucks want to keep the game at a slower pace, and this 197 is too high, in my opinion - definite lean to the Under.

Wolves @ Lakers - LA by 15.5 with a total of 216. I'm not even going to justify this one with a breakdown. I know guys, this is a cheap maneuver on my part, but 15.5 points? There is no reason to lay 15.5 points unless one team has to play with their bad hand all game. I don't care how bad a team is, or if they've mailed it in - unless the Lakers are in the world's greatest situational spot, or the Wolves are playing, say, their 5th game in 6 nights like the Wizards had to do recently, you just can't lay 15.5. You guys have seen the only time I'm willing to lay a number even close to this high is when a team is headed into altitude, but there is no back-to-back at play here, no altitude, and a Lakers team that has shown zero aptitude for putting teams away. Based on points alone, I lean Wolves. We know the Wolves are going to push the pace, but I guess it's a matter of triangle offense versus triangle offense, and if Minnesota actually brings any kind of heat. Seems like there ought to be some value in the under, but I have no idea if the Lakers are going to be motivated to actually try to slow down the Wolves. No lean on the total.

Orlando at Miami

GM of Picks — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:06:00 GMT

Heat are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games.
They take on the Magic Thursday. Cheat Sheet
Magic 85% of bets, Heat 15% (SportsbookSpy.com)

Big Dance Day One, According to Pomeroy

Dwayne Bryant — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:03:00 GMT

Ken Pomeroy uses his own unique methods and calculations to come up with a prediction for each game. The following are Pomeroy's predictions for today's NCAA Tournament games.

Georgetown 78, Ohio 66

Tennessee 65, San Diego State 64

Villanova 86, Robert Morris 67

St. Mary's 68, Richmond 67

Kentucky 77, East Tennessee State 60

Texas 77, Wake Forest 72

Baylor 83, Sam Houston State 69

Old Dominion 65, Notre Dame 64

Kansas 90, Lehigh 63

Northern Iowa 58, UNLV 57

Kansas State 85, North Texas 65

BYU 78, Florida 71

Butler 65, UTEP 63

Vanderbilt 73, Murray State 70

New Mexico 72, Montana 65

Marquette 72, Washington 71

Happy Birthday, Kyle Korver Kutcher: NBA RoundUp for 3/18

Dan Bebe — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 04:13:00 GMT

I wouldn't believe this note either, if I didn't have every play written down: we are now 4-0 on our last 4 Wednesday Top Plays! Wacky Wednesday has quietly turned into Wonderful Wednesday!

Not to mention the fact that the last 2 Wednesdays I was flying cross-country, and after Memphis creamed Boston a week ago, we got a strong 2nd half from the Jazz last night to cover against the floundering Minnesota Timberwolves. Good times, indeed!

I'm not going to go into all the records - you guys that read this blog every day know the long term numbers are still hovering right around 60%. Short term, we're 16-9-1 on Paid Plays, and 25-15 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break. I want more.

Sports Wagering

Magic @ Heat - Orlando by 3 with a total of 187. If you want to talk about a game that LOOKS way too easy, this is about as tempting a road favorite as the oddsmakers can throw at the public. Now, remembering for a moment that there really aren't such things as "traps" and that lines that look like a trap are actually grounded in some sort of mathematical illusion, let's make sure we take a microscope to this one. Interestingly, Miami won the first 2 meetings between these Florida rivals this season, one game in both Miami and Orlando. Not surprisingly, the Magic got some revenge in the last meeting, a February 28th home beating of the Heat. So, now it's sort of the Heat who have the revenge angle, and in terms of which team actually needs this game more, that angle is a runaway Heat winner. Another situational angle to consider is that the Magic are on a back-to-back, and they're just 6-8-2 ATS in those spots this year. We have also seen that the Magic seem less inclined to play defense when they're a little tired - they are 10-6 O/U on back-to-backs, but that, I believe, comes into play more when they're going against an opponent that wants to try to run the ball. With the Heat, I think Miami is content playing a slower game, and keeping it a possession by possession slugfest. Okay, so the total might not be the way to go in this one - we know Miami wants it low scoring, and we know Orlando likes to get out and trade buckets when they're tired, figuring they might not win by 15, but they can save energy by only using strength on the offensive end, the easier end of the floor, and because of their talent advantage, trading buckets usually works. I think the most important angle in this game, and if we end up making a play on this game, we'll look at it further, but this line is just all kinds of crazy. And I know what you're thinking - surely the Magic are better than 3 points superior to the Heat tonight - well, not necessarily. Because of the back-to-back, this, in effect, is like saying Orlando is 8 points better than Miami on a neutral court. That's a ton of points to lay against a fellow playoff team. And just take a peek at how the recent games against the Spurs can tell us quite a bit. The Heat-Spurs game tipped with the Heat as 2.5-point favorites, in effect saying that the Spurs are, at most, 1 point better on a neutral court. Then, the next night, San Antonio goes off as a 7-point dog in Orlando, effectively making them 2-point dogs on a neutral size. If the Magic are truly just 3 points better than the Heat, they should be getting 2 points, not giving 3. This is one of the most lopsided lines I can remember based on the perception that the Magic are unstoppable. No way I could bet the Magic in this game - this is a huge game for the Heat, and Orlando likes the spotlight, but the motivational edge is decidedly with Miami. Lean to the Heat, and lean to the Over.

Hornets @ Nuggets - Denver by 13 with a total of 214. If at first you DO succeed, do that crap again. I just made that up based on last night's winner with Utah. The Hornets are playing their little stingers off in Golden State as we speak, and as of midnight here in the Eastern Standard, that game hasn't even hit the 3rd quarter. I'm watching the Tom Izzo NBA League Pass halftime interview for the 3rd time tonight, just waiting to see if the Hornets continue to roll, or if the Warriors start to play a little better. Honestly, though, I don't think it's going to matter. The Denver Nuggets are playing their second game back home after being forced to play on Tuesday in a 4th-in-5 situation, against a Wizards team playing its 5th game in 6 nights. Just a weird scheduling anomaly, and somehow the Nuggets prevailed by 10. You guys know how I feel about these fatigue spots. The Hornets are on their way to winning 2 straight on the West coast, as they're currently up 13 on Golden State after putting the Clippers down a couple nights back. Then, they have to get into Denver at 3am, or later, local time, try to get checked into the hotel, maybe get some food after all the running and scoring that takes place in Oakland, and if they're asleep by 5am, it's probably a moral victory. Hell, even if they're asleep by 4, a full night of rest would mean they wake at noon, and for those of us who have stayed up to 4 or 5am lately, once you're a couple years out of College, waking up at noon just makes you feel like you sucked down 3 Big Macs to start your day. The only other option is getting up at 9 or 10 on 5 hours of sleep, trying to adjust to the altitude during practice and whatever gameplanning you can get done against one of the toughest teams in the NBA, napping, then trying to play full speed for 48 minutes. Just can't be done. Now, that doesn't mean the Nuggets cover (or the Jazz, for that matter, though they have done so quite often), but it certainly means that the Hornets won't be hitting many outside shots, and the Nugs could absolutely thrash the Hornets on the offensive glass if they stay aggressive. Also, the Hornets already don't play much defense, how do we expect them to contain the Nuggets when they're tired? Denver could hang 40 on 'em in the 3rd quarter. I lean Nuggets to cover the chalk and I lean to the Over.

Podcast: NCAA Tournament Handicapping & Free Picks (48-27) -Week of Mar 17th

Marco D'Angelo — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:06:00 GMT

This weeks Sports Betting Preview is up and ready. Gambling Experts Marco D'Angelo,Vegas Runner, and host RJ Bell discuss the following topics direct from Las Vegas:

-- Big Game Preview Old Dominion vs Notre Dame

-- Big Game Preview Murray St vs Vanderbilt

-- Big Game Preview Oakland vs Pitt

-- Big Game Preview Louisville vs California

-- How to Handicap NCAA Tournament Games

-- Bracket Picking Rules to Win Your Office Pool

-- Vegas Runner's Free Pick (17-7-1 last 25 Weeks)

-- Marco D'Angelo's Free Pick (19-10 Last 29 Weeks)

-- RJ Bell's Free Pick (12-10 Last 22 Weeks)

Pregame.com Podcasts are now easy to listen to:

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Argh: NBA RoundUp for 3/17

Dan Bebe — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:44:00 GMT

It's a travel day for Danny Boy, so enjoy the blog, and I'll be headed across the country for most of the day!

A recap of yesterday's action saw us collect an easy winner with our Free Play on the Heat-Spurs Under, and a tough, tough loss as the Kings-Lakers ending has left me scratching my head. Why does Ron Artest foul Jason Thompson and keep Tyreke Evans from his triple double? Why doesn't Jason Thompson make a darn free throw? It really seemed like when the Kings got the ball back with 20 seconds left, and the game decided, a cover or a push was a pretty strong probability. Sometimes bad breaks come in bunches, so it's our job to make sure we don't let those cloud our judgment when we're getting set to burst out of this stretch of .500 handicapping.

As I said last night, if our cold streaks are mostly marked by trading off wins and losses, and splitting cards because of a bad break, we are FAR from in a bad spot. Plenty of action left, and the bad breaks can stop at any moment. When that happens, we'll rattle off a beefy run.

Sports Wagering

Nets @ Sixers - This line is OFF. Well, the Nets finally lost an ATS bet last night, and I don't think it should come as a surprise that it came on, yep, the FIRST GAME HOME. Just a very, very tough spot for teams, especially a Nets club that almost doesn't have a home court edge in that barren wasteland they call a home arena. Now, they head back on the road, and this is a spot I would much prefer to look at Jersey. Believe it or not, Jersey is actually an even 17-17 ATS on the road, so oddsmakers are starting to figure out this team's road ability, and get that season ATS mark a little closer to even. I suppose the issue is that Jersey hasn't really done anything on back-to-back games; though, looking closer, they have covered their last 2 and 3 of 4 back-to-backs since mid-February, so at least they're showing signs of playing with some gusto. I know this sounds nuts, but I actually believe the Nets have the motivational edge here. Jersey is still playing to try NOT to be one of the worst teams in history, but the Sixers seem to have completely mailed it in. They've lost 5 straight and 10 of 11 games straight up, and they've covered just 3 of those 11 games, so it isn't much prettier ATS. Interestingly, all 3 games this year between these two teams have been won by Philadelphia, but by 3 or 4 points, and the Nets have covered all 3. Very weird. I think Jersey can actually use some of that triple-revenge here, since the Sixers really aren't that much better than Jersey, and the Sixers remain one of the worst home ATS teams in the NBA at 9-23 ATS. I lean Jersey. On the total, all 3 games have gone under the mark, but Jersey's been playing better, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sixers just play an up-and-down streetball style game. I lean Over.

Hawks @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Will the Raptors ever consider waking back up? Do they even know they're slated to actually go to the playoffs? It sure doesn't look like it. This is a nice proving game for them, though, as they get to tackle the Hawks, who should be good and tired heading into Canada. This isn't a good spot for either team, though, with Toronto coming home off a terrible West coast road trip, where they lost all 4 games, and covered just 1 of those 4. I really wish I could find a way to back the Raptors here -- the Hawks have beaten Toronto BADLY twice already this year, so there may be some revenge factor for the Raptors, but even with the Hawks coming in tired and off a win over Jersey, and even with the value the Raptors should have coming off such an awful stretch, I'm just not sure I can ever really confidently back a team off such a long flight home and playing their first game back in over a week. So, again, as sort of a wrapping up thought, as badly as I want to back Toronto, given the Hawks fatigue factor and the double-revenge, and all that, I just think it takes the Raptors ONE MORE GAME to get settled back in - they match up very poorly with the Hawks, so I'd be careful. I guess, gun to my head, I lean Atlanta, but I'd prefer to call this one a near-mandatory pass. On the total, this number is going to come out pretty high, I fear, and with Toronto playing a first game home and the Hawks tired, defense might be at a premium - I lean Over.

Pacers @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 13 with a total of 209. Two of the stranger games from last night, that's for sure, involved these teams. The Cavaliers got a cover in Detroit in a game that was about as close to looking "fixed" as any I've seen all year - and I didn't have a cent on it. I just have no idea how Detroit continues to foul and foul and foul and let the Cavs have scores until they get outscored by that many points just in the final minute. Very weird. In any case, the Cavs got the cover, and now they head back home, the quick trip from Detroit to Cleveland, and get to lay 13 whopping points to the Pacers. Indiana beat Charlotte yesterday, giving some small measure of credibility to their ability to play at home. The Pacers have actually won 3 straight at home, but unfortunately, they've lost 8 straight on the road. With both teams tired, I'm not sure trying to pick which side is going to show up is the best option. We know how tough the Cavs can be, and Lebron has a way of keeping his troops motivated. Still, neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot, which means you have to at least look at the huge road dog, and I suppose I would then give a teeny tiny lean to Indiana.. On the total, though, we might very well get to see some scoring, here. Obviously, the concern is whether the Pacers will make enough buckets to help this total get to 209. They'll push the pace, and the Cavs will score close to 110, but the Pacers just don't shoot well on the road, and the hope is that the Cavs' defense just won't be that strong. These teams haven't cracked 200 points in their previous two games, and something just feels like this one might be a runner. I lean Over.

Thunder @ Bobcats - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 191. This game intrigues me, though I'm not 100% sold on a play just yet. The Bobcats are coming home off a loss in Indiana, and the lack of Gerald Wallace combined with the letdown off the big road win in Orlando seemed to take Charlotte's focus off Indiana and maybe got set on going home a little too early. I mean, Charlotte got badly outplayed by the Pacers: they turned the ball over more often, and even though they shot the ball better than Indy, the Pacers' attacked the glass, and really separated themselves from the Bobcats with a strong 2nd quarter. So, now I can't help but wonder if Charlotte bounces back in this game against one of the League's rising powers, or if they continue to suffer a little skid. Charlotte does seem to have a knack for losing 2 or 3 games in a row in between nice win streaks. Charlotte had won 6 straight going into this loss at Indiana, but before that they had lost 5 of 6. If Gerald Wallace misses this game, I find the Bobcats hard to back, even though they're quite strong at home. The Thunder are just not a team that even a slow-it-down club like Charlotte can really contain, and if the Thunder are at all interested in this game, which they should be since it's the first game of a road trip where this is actually the toughest game, then the Thunder should win by a bucket. I know this game might look a little like a "trap", but I can't help but lean to the surging Thunder. I will admit, I don't have a good read on this total - we know the Bobcats want to slow things to a crawl, especially against a team with so many weapons like the Thunder, but can they control things? I lean slightly to the Under, since I believe the Thunder are comfortable in both slower or quicker games.

Knicks @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 208.5. Well, Boston can't play any better than they did against Detroit two days ago -- the question is, can they play almost as well? Because an equally strong effort from Boston would most certainly mean a cover. A weak effort, and covering double digits seems damn near impossible, especially since the Knicks are actually playing decent ball lately. New York has picked up 2 straight road wins, a crushing blowout of the Dallas Mavericks in one of the weirdest games of the season followed by a solid win in Philadelphia against the struggling Sixers. My concerns with this game are numerous. For instance, if I'm thinking about backing the Celtics, can I really trust Michael Finley to rain in buckets at a near-perfect clip, and can I expect Boston to shoot 62% as a team for the game, even in garbage time? Seems unlikely. But what if I back the Knicks? Boston has won both games this season, but hasn't covered either one -- is this the game where the Knicks realize they just can't get over that Celtic hump, or do the Knicks figure that if they can get THAT close to winning, maybe this is their night. I honestly don't know how the Knicks have stayed so close in both games this year - both have gone WAY over the total, so perhaps the Knicks have had great success at suckering Boston into quicker games, and trading buckets is no way to beat a team by more than 5 or 6 points. Now, we see oddsmakers have adjusted this total by 10 points above the last meeting, and that's worth noting, as well. They're expecting another high-scoring affair, which makes me think the Knicks get up near 100 points - I only hope the Knicks don't look forward to getting home off their road trip. If the Knicks weren't riding a little momentum, I'd be more concerned about the "Last Road Game" theory, but as it is, I think they're having fun, and I think they score some buckets. I lean New York, and I think the total is pretty accurate, but I can't help but think it might have been overadjusted, and I lean Under.

Spurs @ Magic - Orlando by 7.5 with a total of 194.5. This spread is strikingly low, considering the Spurs are playing a back-to-back game. Are the Magic really only 2.5-point favorites to the Spurs on a neutral court? Let's check out some common opponents, if we can find one. Oh goodie, we can: the Clippers. The Magic hosted the Clippers on the first game of LA's road trip East just about a week ago, and were laying 13 points. So, 10 points better on a neutral court. A few days later, the Clippers played a 4th game in 5 nights in San Antonio, while the Spurs were coming home on a back-to-back, and laid 11.5, so they were just about 8 or 8.5 point favorites on a neutral court. How about that - this line is actually pretty fair, or certainly within a point of fair. I guess that's worth noting, because the Magic don't often get a fair line, being one of the true marquee clubs in the NBA right now. Does that mean this is a rare time where maybe we take a look at Orlando? I suppose it's worth considering -- the Spurs are a middle of the road team on back-to-back games, but they've had a huge issue scoring points when tired. Generally, they've been able to stay in games by slowing things down, but the Magic are a stronger, faster team, so if I'm the Spurs, I'm a little scared. They are fortunate to have been able to get out to a big lead over the Heat, and really didn't have to play at full speed in the 4th quarter, though an early-quarter surge by Miami forced the Spurs to leave started in until the 3 or 4 minute mark. I hate to say it, but I like Orlando, and I don't think it's a trap. On the side, I like the Under, since the Spurs are going to try every trick on the planet to keep this thing low-scoring, and while the Magic might get theirs, the Spurs might not.

Grizzlies @ Rockets - This line is OFF. Alright, so, what's going on with the Grizzlies? They got up big on a badly undermanned Chicago team, then let them claw their way back into the game. A truly motivated team doesn't let that happen, though I suppose there is the possibility coach Hollins might have been trying to buy his guys a little more rest than usual last night with this showdown with Houston coming up. Both of these teams want this game BADLY, and when the motivation factor is almost equal, I think the best move is a pass. As far as angles go, Memphis got embarrassed by Houston at home shortly before the All Star Break, and so far this year it just looks like Houston has Memphis's number. I would honestly be very, very careful with this game. The Grizzlies are going to be a bit fatigued, and a rested Rockets team can definitely put up some points. The total is probably going to be a tad inflated with the Rockets coming off a near-250 point total with Denver, and Houston might very well suffer a small letdown off that huge comeback win over the Nuggets, but with all these competing angles, the possibility that the Rockets just own the Grizzlies, both teams needing this win to have any shot at the playoffs (and even that is a stretch), I just don't think this one is worth playing a side. I guess if you got that gun back out and pointed it at me again, I'd lean to the veteran Rockets to execute in a big game. On the total, I have to lean Under without even seeing it, as both teams have been playing some high scoring games, and there's almost no chance we're not getting a few points of value on an Under.

Bulls @ Mavericks - This line is OFF. Chicago is in bad shape these days. They did somehow mount a monster comeback against the Grizzlies last night to get a cover as a huge underdog, and if you thought that line was outrageous, wait until we get a load of this one. Given that the Bulls were getting 11.5 points in Memphis, and now they're playing a back-to-back game against a better team, we might be looking at a 15-point spread. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but this is an awful spot for Chicago, no matter what scrubs are playing. Chicago could be missing 80% of their starting 5 again tonight, with Taj Gibson the lone exception, and Dallas is coming off getting blown out by 34 at home by the Knicks, and haven't played in 4 days. Yikes. Dallas beat Chicago 122-116 on the road 11 days ago, so we know they can handle the Bulls, and the only real concern with Dallas is whether they can actually play some defense at home. The return of Brendan Haywood helps Dallas quite a bit, but at 8-25 ATS at home, the Mavs are never really an "easy" home team to back. But here, with the Bulls going all out in trying to come back against the Grizzlies, and the Mavs in a spot where they want to take out some anger against the next team to come into their building, I have to lean to the chalky Mavs. On the total, I just can't see the Bulls competing on the offensive end if the Mavs play any defense at all, and I lean Under.

Wolves @ Jazz - Utah by 15 with a total of 214. You guys know my feelings on a team coming from a 7pm Pacific time start, and heading into the altitude on the second half of that back-to-back. It's really the combination of factors that leaps above all others. Not only do they get into Utah at 3am and get to a hotel, probably a bit hungry, near 4, but they have to try to sleep in the altitude, and get ready for a game with a strong, tough team not terribly long from that time they get into town. The Jazz crushed the Wizards on Monday, so they're rested, and they're feeling just fine about themselves, knowing that every win gets them closer to home court in the first round of the playoffs, and maybe more if some of the teams ahead of them would lose a couple. I know this is a monster spread, and these are really becoming the norm down the stretch as the weaker teams start to call it a year, but unfortunately, now is just the time of the season where we need to start taking a look at these big favorites. They're covering a good half the time, and if we can find the right situational spot to back a huge favorite, we can get ourselves a blowout win, and in the process, a 5-10 point cover. Interestingly, these two teams have actually played close games this year, and that's the one point of concern here. The Wolves actually beat Utah twice, then forced the Jazz to play to the final possession in losing the 3rd meeting. I just wonder if the Wolves have the drive to try to compete again, when they're going to be tired beyond tired, and also can see the finish line on this complete failure of a 2009-2010 season. I have to lean to the big favorite here, as the only thing keeping us from doing so is that the Wolves seem to play well against the Jazz, but I don't really think that's a trackable trend. On the total, all 3 games have gone over so far this year, and I think finally oddsmakers have adjusted. Minnesota isn't going to score enough to get this one over the total, and I lean Under.

Hornets @ Warriors - Golden State by 3 with a total of 229. There's a little revenge at play here, as the Warriors lost by 4 in New Orleans (but got the cover) just a little over a week ago. Now, the Warriors get to play host to a Hornets team that seems to be just about done with this season. Yes, they beat the Clippers, but there are only about 2 or 3 teams in the NBA playing less inspired basketball than the Hornets, and the Clips just happen to be one of those teams. Here, the Warriors are playing about as hard as anyone in the NBA, but I do have two concerns about this game. First, the line was Warriors getting 6 points in New Orleans, and now they're laying 3? A 9-point swing is pretty hefty, especially since neither team is playing a back to back - is it possible that the return of Monta Ellis is really the only thing shifting this line 3 extra points? The other concern I have is that the Warriors are coming off that game with the Lakers where they went all out and nearly sent that game to overtime. Do they suffer a letdown, these young guys on Golden State, after pouring their hearts into that near-miss against LA? And, does New Orleans get a little confidence off the win over the Clippers, and carry that into Oakland? There are just too many questions to be answered about each team. I actually believe that the line shift between games is too big, and that there might be a point or two of value on the New Orleans side, especially considering they've shot the ball very well in all 3 games against the Warriors this year. It's not a lean, more a trademark tilt to the Hornets, but avoiding the side might be the best move in another weird late-season matchup. These teams scored 266 points in the last meeting, and this total got adjusted by 12 - the over just looks too easy, and the value is definitely with the Under.

Bucks @ Clippers - Milwaukee by 3.5 with a total of 192. This line looks all kinds of crazy to me. The hottest team in the NBA is laying only 3.5 to one of the worst teams in the NBA? This is exactly the kind of game, where, in the middle of the season, this game would be Clippers or nothing, but here near the end of the season, I just don't know if there's that same value in the underdog. Sure, the Clippers are getting almost 2 buckets on their home court, which in January is a nice little chunk, but the dog days are done, and the cream is rising to the top. This is indeed the Clippers second game back off that awful road trip, so they'll play a bit better tonight than they did against the Hornets on Monday, but in terms of situational angles, neither team is really in a particularly good or bad spot. And, as noted before, at this point in the season, I think we need a very strong reason to take the underdog in a game where the motivational edge is so severe for the better team. For instance, last night, the Bobcats were in a letdown spot in Indiana, and the very short line was an indication of that. Here, the Bucks are coming to town off a win (and missed cover) at home against the Pacers 3 days ago. They've had plenty of time to regroup and make their push down the stretch, and while this line is certainly an odd one, I fear we may be overthinking things just a bit by trying to find a way to back the Clippers. I don't trust them, and I think they're done with this season. I lean Bucks. On the total, the Clippers have been playing no defense at all, but the Bucks have been trying to win games with execution - when two styles butt heads like that, I'd prefer to pass on the total.

Amazing March Madness Odds!

RJ_Bell — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:25:00 GMT

Vegas Odds: 2010 NCAA Tournament

Odds to win the title:

Kansas: 23% ($100 wins $340)
Kentucky: 19% ($100 wins $430)
Syracuse: 8% ($100 wins $1,100)
Duke: 7% ($100 wins $1,300)
WVU: 4% ($100 wins $2,600)
Ohio State: 3.5% ($100 wins $2,700)
Georgetown: 3.5% ($100 wins $2,700)
Kansas State: 3% ($100 wins $3,450)
Villanova: 3% ($100 wins $3,450)
Baylor: 2.5% ($100 wins $4.300)

The 10 teams above are the only teams with a better than 50 to 1 chance of winning.

Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse have COMBINED odds of 50%. Would you rather have those three teams or the field?

The bottom 25 teams have COMBINED odds of less than 1% than any one of them will win the title.

58% chance a #1 seed will win the title.

87% chance at least ONE #1 seed will make the Final Four.

33 to 1 longshot that ALL FOUR #1 seeds will make the Final Four.

Surprisingly low 15 to 1 odds against a #16 will beat a #1 (over double the chance of all four #1’s making the Final Four)

Kansas is the only team favored over the other 15 teams to win their region. The other three #1 seeds are underdogs to win the region vs. the other 15 teams in their region.

80% chance that at least one #12 seed will win a game.

60% chance that at least one #14, #15, #16 seed will win a game.

Which odds surprise you the most?

NCAA Tournament by the Numbers

Larry Ness — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:05:00 GMT

The NCAA selection committee announced its 65-team field late Sunday afternoon. The NIT followed (32 teams), then the CBI (in its third season) and CollegeInsider.com Tournament also filled out their brackets with 16 teams apiece. That means 129 of 347 Division I schools will be playing over the next three weeks (37.2 percent). Compare that to the 68 of 120 football schools which competed in last season's 34 bowl games (56.7 percent). Note that 110 schools won 20 or more games (31.7 percent). As usual there was plenty of debate over which schools got left out.

However, unlike in the past couple of years, it was Illinois, Miss St and Va Tech from the so-called "power conferences," not schools from the mid-majors, which were claiming 'foul!' Virginia Tech (23-8) and Mississippi State (23-11) join last year's Florida team (23-10 pre-postseason) as one of those very rare power conference schools to win 23 games and not make the NCAA field. It was a bitter pill for the Hokies to swallow, as Tech became the first team to win 10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference and get passed over by the committee (the fact that 9-7 Wake and 7-9 Ga Tech made it, although Va Tech went 2-0 vs those schools this year, didn't help).

It seems like the committee is damned if it does and damned if it doesn't. At-large bids were plentiful from schools outside of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC in 2003 (10) and 2004 (12). Although that number fell to nine in 2005 and eight in 2006 there was not much concern. However, at-large bids outside of the six power conferences fell to just six in both 2007 and 2008, then to just four last year. However, eight at-large bids were extended to non-power conference teams this year. The MWC placed four schools in the NCAA tourney field for the first time ever (three at-large bids for BYU, New Mexico and UNLV), joined by two at-large schools from the A-10 (Richmond and Xavier), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah St (WAC) and UTEP (C-USA). While mid-majors got eight at-large bids, a check of the top-16 seeds (four in each region) reveals that only New Mexico (No. 3 in the East) comes from a non-power conference.

There was no real surprise when it came to the four No. 1 seeds, although West Va seemed to think it was 'robbed.' Kansas was the overall No. 1 seed and with Arizona failing to make the field this year after 25 consecutive appearances, the Jayhawks' 21 straight appearances is now the longest active streak of any school. Kentucky earned its 10th No. 1 seed (Calipari became the first head coach to earn No. 1 seeds with three different schools, U Mass and Memphis being the other two), Duke its 11th (second-most to North Carolina's 13) and Syracuse its second-ever No. 1 seed (last came way back in 1980).

The final AP poll was released on Monday and Kansas (a No. 1 seed for a ninth time), the nation's preseason No. 1, enters the tournament as an unanimous No. 1, getting all 65 first-place votes. As I mentioned last week, being No. 1 in the final AP poll is not a good indicator of ultimate success in the Big Dance. Since Bob Knight’s 1975-76 team, the last to finish a season unbeaten at 32-0, entered that year’s tourney as No. 1 and won the title, just five schools have finished No. 1 in the AP’s final regular poll and gone on to win the title. The list includes UCLA (1995), Duke (1992), North Carolina (1982), Kentucky (1978) and Duke (2001). Doing the math, that’s just five in 33 years or 15.2 percent, not exactly a confidence-builder if you have a 'ticket' on Kansas to win it all.

Kansas and Kentucky each enter the tourney at 32-2 and both have a chance at matching the NCAA single-season record of 38 wins by "winning it all" (takes six games). Memphis went 38-2 in the 2007-08 season to set that record, although the NCAA stripped the Tigers of that record in August of 2009 because Memphis fielded an ineligible player (Derrick Rose). Five previous teams have won 37 games in a single season, starting with Duke in 1986 (37-3), UNLV in 1987 (37-2), Duke in 1999 (37-2), Illinois in 2005 (37-2) and Kansas in 2008 (37-3). Note that only Kansas won a championship in its 37-win season.

Seeding began back in 1979 and over the last 31 tourneys, a No. 1 seed has gone on the win the title 17 times, a No. 2 seed six times and a No. 3 seed four times. Two No. 6 seeds have won it all (Kansas in 1988 and NC State in 1983), Arizona won it as a No. 4 seed in 1997 and in the first year of the 64-team field, Villanova famously beat Georgetown as a No. 8 seed in 1985, the longest shot to capture the NCAA title since the tourney began seeding teams. You'll notice that no No. 5 or No. 7 seeds have ever won. Two No. 5 seeds have lost in the title game (Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002), while the furthest any No. 7 seed has gotten is the Ralph Sampson-led Virginia Cavaliers in 1984 (lost in the national semifinals to 49-47 in OT to Houston).

Those results seem to make all the talk about which were the last teams in and which teams were "unfairly" left out seem moot. Just four No. 8 seeds have ever made it to the Final 4 (UCLA in 1980, Villanova in 1985, North Carolina and Wisconsin, both in 2000). Penn reached the Final 4 in 1979 as a No. 9 seed and two No. 11 seeds have gotten that far. LSU was the first to do it back in 1986 and recently, 'Cinderella' George Mason Mason made a Final 4 appearance in 2006. Villanova is the only one of the schools to win and UCLA in 1980 is the only other to even make the championship game (lost to Louisville).

We now have 25 years of history to look at since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams (65 since 2001). I doubt anyone is unaware that a No. 1 seed has never lost an opening round game, going a perfect 100-0 vs the No. 16 seeds. In fact, just five No. 1 vs No. 16 matchups have been decided by five points or less, the first coming in 1985 (Michigan edged Fairleigh Dickinson 59-55) and the most recent coming in 1996 (Purdue 73-71 over Western Carolina). The most famous near-upset of a No. 1 seed by a 16-seed came when Princeton almost toppled Georgetown in 1989, falling 50-49. Somewhat forgotten is that another No. 1 seed barely escaped the first round that very same year, as Oklahoma edged East Tennessee St 72-71.

No. 2 seeds are 96-4 vs No. 15 seeds in the first round with Richmond upsetting Syracuse 73-69 back in 1991 marking the first occasion and Hampton beating Iowa State 58-57 in 2001 being the most recent occurrence. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are each 32-0 SU these past eight years, with No. 1 teams going 15-16-1 ATS and No. 2 seeds going 13-18-1. However, both top-seeds have been fairly profitable lately, with No. 1 seeds going 8-4 ATS and No. 2 seeds 7-4-1 the last three years (be careful taking those big points).

The TV talking heads love to rave about the 5 vs 12 matchups, as if No. 12 seeds regularly knock off No. 5 seeds. A check of the record book shows that No. 12 seeds are just 32-68 against No. 5 seeds all-time, a winning percentage of only .320. No. 12 seeds are 14-18 SU but 18-14 ATS vs No. 5 seeds the last eight years. In fact, the only lower seed with a winning record against a higher seed is No. 9 over No. 8, which should come as much of a surprise and could hardly be considered much of an upset. No. 9 seeds are 54-46 all-time vs No. 8 seeds, going 15-17 SU and 15-16-1 ATS these last eight years (talk about 'kissing your sister!').

The official NCAA Record Book defines an upset as being a win by a team seeded five or more places lower that the team it defeated. The very first year of the 64-team field (1985) saw 11 "upsets," as did the 2002 and 2006 (George Mason's year) tournaments. However, the "mother-lode" of upsets came in 1986, when LSU made its Final 4 run, as the Tigers pulled off a single-tourney record four upsets, accounting for one-third of the 12 upsets that year. There were only four upsets in last year's tourney but that wasn't the fewest. That came in 2007, when just three upsets occurred. Two No. 11s won in the first round that year (Winthrop over Notre Dame and VCU over Duke) and then No. 7 UNLV beat No. 2 Wisconsin in the second round.

Kentucky is looking for its eighth title and Calipari is looking to join Pitino as the only head coach to lead three different schools to a Final 4. Both Duke and Kansas are looking for their fourth titles, which would either school with the fifth-most championships of all time (UCLA has 11, Kentucky 7 plus Indiana and North Carolina five each). Coach K has made 10 Final 4 appearances (only Wooden with 12 and Smith with 11 own more) and with three titles (same as Bob Knight), only Rupp (four) and Wooden (10) have won more often. Kansas and Bill Self are looking for their second title in three years and a championship would make Self the ninth head coach with two NCAA titles (the most recent addition to that list was Billy Donovan of Florida, who did it in back-to-back seasons in 2006 and '07).

While the above schools are looking to become part of the NCAA history books, other schools in this year's tourney are just looking for a win (any win). Arkansas-Pine Bluff plays Winthrop in Tuesday's play-in game, participating in the school's first-ever NCAA tournament (Golden Lions opened the season 0-11 but enter their game with Winthrop having won 17 of their last 21). Joining Pine Bluff as an NCAA 'virgin' in 2010 is Wofford of the Southern Conference. The Terriers joined Division I in 1995-96 and their first winning season (16-14) came just last season. However, this year's team takes a 26-8 record and a No. 13-seed into its first-round game with Wisconsin.

Robert Morris is back in the Big Dance for the second straight year representing the Northeast Conference but no NEC school has won anything in the NCAAs other than a play-in game or a game held to determine the last-seeded team in a region. Murray State of the OVC is making its 14th NCAA appearance in its history. At 30-4, the Racers may be the only other school in this year's field other than Kansas and Duke with 30 wins but they are also hoping to break a 20-year NCAA losing streak for the conference. Murray State's upset of North Carolina St (a No. 3 seed) in 1988 was the OVC's last NCAA win and also marks the school's lone win in its 14 appearances.

Illinois owns 38 NCAA wins but has never won a championship, giving the Illini the unwanted title of school with the most wins without a championship. Oklahoma's 35 wins makes the Sooners second on that list but like the Illini, the Sooners failed to make this year's NCAA field. Texas is third on the list with 33 wins but the way the Longhorns have collapsed, they may not add to that record in this year's tourney. Texas opened the 2009-10 season 17-0 and achieved the school's first-ever No. 1 ranking on Jan 11 (two weeks). However, Texas has lost nine of its last 16 games and became the fifth school in NCAA history to hold the No. 1 ranking and then drop out of the poll in the same season (Longhorns fell out on March 1 and never returned).

Boston College owns the most wins (22) without ever reaching a Final 4 but the Eagles are not in this year's field. However, Missouri with 21 wins, is. BYU is making its 25th NCAA appearance and the Cougars own the distinction of most appearances without reaching a Final 4. Missouri is not far behind (23rd appearance) with Xavier (21st appearance) ranking third on the list. Getting back to BYU, the Cougars have not won an NCAA game since 1993, going 0-7 since 1995. The 'madness' begins Tuesday night and as I mentioned at the top, there are three other tourneys to keep us busy the next three weeks, as well.

Good luck, Larry

NCAA ROUND UP…Opening Round Games

Marc Lawrence — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:02:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence

The 2010 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS

• #1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds • #2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds • Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY) • Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win • Favs of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS L9Y) • Favs of 20 > pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win • Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years • Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS • Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:

FIRST ROUND NOTES

• #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS • #2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y) • #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y) • #4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (8-2 L4Y) • #9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts • Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)

Conference Tournament Champs in this round

ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.

Best Team SU records in this round

Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.

Worst Team SU records in this round

BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.

Best Team ATS records in this round

Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.

Worst Team ATS records in this round

Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6. If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist. I’ll be back next week with a look at SWEET 16 action. Let the games begin!

Jason Maxiell's Mighty Patella: NBA RoundUp for 3/16

Dan Bebe — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 04:08:00 GMT

Wow, that was ugly!

Sports Wagering

Bobcats @ Pacers - Charlotte by 1 with a total of 197.5. This line is strikingly low, and I'm having all kinds of issues wrapping my head around it. I can only assume the public is going to see the same thing, since the extreme "smallitude" of this line is just smacking us in the face. So, I suppose the question is whether or not the Bobcats are truly 4 points better than the Pacers on a neutral court. I mean, I know Charlotte isn't a spectacular team, and they're likely going to be playing without Gerald Wallace, but it seems like this line is the oddsmaker's way of saying that Charlotte got a big win over Orlando without Wallace, but the "other guys" will suffer a letdown in this one. Interestingly, Indiana has won their last 2 home games, but they've been on the road so much it's tough to remember. But at the same time, from a motivational standpoint, the Bobcats have every reason to play hard in this one, and the Pacers really have none. Charlotte, on top of that, has always been just fine with playing in Indiana, at 8-2 ATS in the team's brief history in this particular venue. So why oh why is this line so low? I'm not going to bite just yet, but I have to say, in terms of games where I'm considering "going square," this is among that list. It's the Charlotte letdown factor against the Pacers home court edge and desire to play spoiler. I guess I lean Charlotte, but mostly because I don't understand this one. This total is not really in Charlotte's comfort zone, and I'm also debating whether this is a hint that Indiana gets this thing moving along. I still think Charlotte can slow things down, and I lean Under.

Spurs @ Heat - This line is OFF. This game doesn't interest me much, if only because we have two teams that are fighting for playoff spots/positioning, and both are playing like it matters. At this point in the season, we really need to continue to rely heavily on handicapping motivation, and both teams are heavily motivated to perform in this one. The Heat have won 6 of 7 games and covered 5 of 6, so they're playing well, including a 13-point win over the Sixers in their most recent game. The Spurs have won 7 of 8 and covered 6 of 7, so these two teams have been almost the same over the past couple weeks. Also, both teams play Orlando next - sort of a weird scheduling anomaly, with the Spurs playing them tomorrow, and the Heat the following day. Is this a look-ahead game? Potentially, but it would be a look-ahead for both teams. I guess maybe a little more for the Heat, since Orlando is a rival, but can you really say one team is in a "lookier" ahead spot when they're about to face the same opponent? No leans on the side in this game, but I do get a sentimental feeling about the Under in this game, since both teams prefer to grind it out - the Spurs play lower scoring games on the road, the Heat have been playing some higher-scoring games against teams with awful defenses.

Cavaliers @ Pistons - Cleveland by 9.5 with a total of 195.5. This one is going to increase by morning, as the public catches wind of Tayshaun Prince's injury and the Piston's AWFUL performance last night in Boston. In fact, while I can't possibly advocate backing the Pistons given the injury situation and the fact that they're 0-5 ATS on back-to-back games since the All Star Break. That being said, this might be an opportunity to set up a middle - Cleveland will probably be a 10.5 or 11 point favorite by morning, or even before I get this blog up (in which case, don't worry about it), but with the public likely backing Cleveland, and the injury move added in there, the Cavs could very well be 12 point favorites before this one tips. That's a very liberal estimate, but it's a possibility, and it's definitely the best way to handle the side in this game. There might be 1 time per season I advocate backing a road team laying nearly double-digits, but this ain't that time. But again, as noted, Detroit is in no place to compete. No leans on the side in this game, too. On the total, can anyone REALLY see Detroit breaking 85 points? If the Cavaliers bring it at even 85-90%, they should win this game 100 to 85. Marginally strong lean to the Under, though this one might drop, too when the injury and overall bad play gets factored into the mix.

Hawks @ Nets - This line is OFF. Joe Johnson is expected to miss this game, and while we might very well see the Injured Star Theory in play, I'm not sure the other guys are going to get up for a game with the Nets. Atlanta has spanked the Nets by a combined 53 points in the two meetings so far this year, and I just can't imagine this is a game they really, truly care about. On top of that, the Hawks just haven't been playing good basketball lately. They covered their last game, beating Detroit by 13 at home, but the Pistons have been notoriously bad on back-to-back spots. Prior to that win, the Hawks had lost 4 straight games ATS, and looked back in two road losses in Miami and New York. On the other side, the Nets have covered 6 straight games! Some of them, just barely, but a cover's a cover. The big concern here is that the Nets have been on the road for 5 games, so this is the first game in "The Dead Zone" (their home arena) since a home loss (but a cover) againt the Magic on the 5th. 11 days away from home can take a toll on a team, even if they're covering. Still, it's pretty obvious the Nets want to win, and getting terrible teams that are giving 100% is a good spot - they don't want to be remembered as one of the worst teams in NBA history, and there are only so many games left to try to squeeze out a few W's. I have just a tiny lean to the Nets, though Atlanta could just as easily win by 25 again. On the total, the Hawks are going to want to get into a scoring match, since the Nets simply can't keep up, and the Nets only real shot to win is to keep Atlanta from getting out and getting those offensive rebounds. I lean Over.

Bulls @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. It looks like Chicago will be without Rose, Deng, Noah and Hinrich in this one, and maybe Brad Miller. That's tough to stomach. The Grizzlies might be without Marc Gasol, but let's stop for a moment and realize how the motivational angles go head to head. The Bulls are basically done; without 80% of their starting 5, they have no shot of making the playoffs. The dilemma in this game is quite clearly whether the Bulls will get enough points in the spread. The Grizzlies might be a tad dejected off that meltdown against the Nuggets, so there's certainly the possibility that one, if not a few of the players will be starting to think their chances of slipping into the Western Conference postseason have just about hit zero. And if even a few guys on the team aren't going full tilt, we're in trouble. Memphis beat Chicago in Chicago as a 5-point underdog about 2 weeks ago, but given the injuries, we're probably looking at a pretty hefty point spread swing in this game. Still, despite the potential for Memphis to have a letdown game off that bad performance against Denver, I think they just want this game more, and I think they'll win it by close to double digits. I lean to the Grizzlies. On the total, Memphis has been playing some high scoring games, but can Chicago's reserves keep up? Let's take a peek at where this total comes out, but if indeed we can get the Over at a relatively reasonable number, I might bite.

Wizards @ Nuggets - Denver by 14 with a total of 210. Now that, right there, is a spread! Two touchdowns, the Wizards are giving up in this one, and maybe we can understand why. The Wizards are going from Utah to Denver, so back-to-back games in the altitude, and considering they had 3 games in 3 nights less than a week ago, the Wizards are staring at a 5 games in 6 days situation. Our buddy Jeff pointed out that that absolutely never happens, and the odds of the Wizards actually holding together are so, so slim. I know Denver is headed home to finish a back-to-back and play a 4th in 5 days, as well, but they know how to play in the altitude. I know Denver is playing its first game at home in 9 days, so they might relax a little, but Washington clearly just has nothing left in the tank, and this spread might actually increase. I can't believe I'm saying this, but as many bad angles as the Nuggets are dealing with, nothing is more absurd than the Wizards schedule, and to be doing it on the road with 2 straight days in altitude is just unreal. The schedule-makers deserve to have a meeting with Gilbert Arenas. In any case, I almost don't care who Washington is playing today, I won't back them. I lean Nuggets in a furious blowout. I lean to the Over, as well, since I can easily see Denver playing poor defense on a back-to-back while scoring like crazy themselves.

Wolves @ Suns - This line is OFF. I think this is off because of Kevin Love, but it's pretty weak for oddsmakers to hold back a line on a game that's clearly going to be a double-digit spread. Luckily, Phoenix doesn't seem to be opposed to beating lesser teams by double digits. I guess the question here is whether the Suns show the Wolves enough daylight to let them get some confidence. Defense, believe it or not, is going to be the key to this game. Both teams love to get up and down the court, and the Suns have to make sure they don't just get into a back-and-forth bucket-for-bucket game, since that's really the only prayer the Wolves have. Phoenix can win this game easily and by a large number if they protect the rim and grab defensive rebounds, and that should be a bit easier if Kevin Love is indeed out. The Wolves have lost 15 of 16 games SU, so things are about as ugly as they can be for Minnesota, and lately they haven't been covering either, so they're getting creamed. I can't back a team that has thrown in the towel, and it seems like finding motivation is tough on the road. Obviously, the back door is going to be wide open in another gigantic spread game, but once again I have to lean to the big home favorite, since the Wolves aren't in any spot to truly compete the rest of the year. I lean Suns. On the total, we might be looking at a number up around 215, and if so, I hate to say it, but I got nothin'.

Lakers @ Kings - Lakers by 6.5 with a total of 205.5. This is not going to be an easy game for the Lakers. I suppose the only advantage is that the Lakers only have to travel 80 miles to get from Oracle Arena in Oakland up to Arco in Sacramento. Otherwise, the Lakers could be in a bit of a fatigue spot. They had to play their asses off last night to escape an excitable Warriors team, and now are laying 6.5 points against the Kings? See, this doesn't make a ton of sense to me, since the Lakers were laying 8.5 against Golden State. By that token, the Kings and Warriors are being set at equals on a neutral court, but just a few days ago, the Trailblazers were laying just 1.5 points at Sacramento the day after laying 6 in Golden State! A little quick math there should have set the Warriors at 2.5-point neutral court favorites over the Warriors, and the Lakers should either have been bigger favorites last night in Golden State, which clearly they didn't need to be given the ATS loss, or should be a smaller favorite tonight. Are the Lakers truly 11.5-points better than the Kings on a neutral site? I don't think so, and I don't think they'd be 14.5-point favorites over Sacramento if this game was in LA. The Lakers are 7-9 ATS in back-to-back games, which is exactly the same percentage as their overall ATS mark. However, the problem seems to come on the defensive end, and just like with Golden State, if the Lakers don't defend, they're not going to win "big" on the road. Lean to the Kings, and lean the Over.

Vegas Says Virginia Tech Should Have Made Tournament

RJ_Bell — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 03:29:00 GMT

March 16, 2010 (Las Vegas, Nevada):

Virginia Tech has been vocal in their disappointment in not making the NCAA tournament - and Las Vegas agrees. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, Virginia Tech would be favored against many at-large teams, the five most impressive being:

#7 Richmond
#7 Oklahoma State
#8 UNLV
#9 Wake Forest
#10 Florida

Not only does Las Vegas consider Virgina Tech to be better than a surprising number of at-large teams, Vegas considers them to be clearly better than at least three teams seeded in the top half of the whole tournament!

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. For follow-up questions, or media appearances - email: rjbell@pregame.com

RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, New York Times, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregme.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.

TWITTER: Follow all of RJ Bell's news making releases at www.Twitter.com/RJinVegas

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Vegas Better Predictor than Bracket Seeds!

RJ_Bell — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 23:20:00 GMT

March 15, 2010 (Las Vegas, Nevada):

RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: “Historically, Las Vegas point spreads are better predictors of 1st round tournament success than committee seeding.” Last year, Las Vegas predicted 27 of 32 first round winners – once again better than the seeding committee.

In 2010, two lower seeds are favored over higher seeds:

#9 Florida State over #8 Gonzaga
#11 Minnesota over #6 Xavier

Two #13 seeds have surprisingly close odds against their #4 seeded opponents:

#13 Murray State only 3-point underdogs vs. #4 Vanderbilt
#13 Siena only 4-point underdogs vs. #4 Purdue

Vegas says these four teams should be given prime consideration when determining your bracket “upsets”.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. For follow-up questions, or media appearances - email: rjbell@pregame.com

RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, New York Times, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregme.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.

TWITTER: Follow all of RJ Bell's news making releases at www.Twitter.com/RJinVegas

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THE FOUR M'S OF MARCH MADNESS

Greg Shaker — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:55:00 GMT

Ok, since the name of this piece is “The Four M’s” lets go ahead and get what those are out there so you won’t be skipping past all of the important stuff to see what they are. They are Momemtum, Motivation, Money, and Mo D. Now I know that Mo is not really a word and for that matter neither is D. But I was looking for a Cool Title so just humor me on this so that I can have 4 M’s. These M’s can and will give you a quick jumpstart on who is going to fair well over the next few weeks.

Momentum
This first one is kind of tricky because momentum does not necesarily mean a team that is coming into the Tourney winning a bunch of games, is going to be a good play. The fact is, often it can mean getting a better number because of this and betting against those teams because they are too overvalued. Oddsmakers are not stupid people, although we would like to think so, and as a handicapper I often do call them that. That is just simply a “Wanting to be cool Thing” going on with me so you have to overlook it. There are, however, some squads that do have a lot of momemtum coming in, and one’s that are peaking in their capabilities, but are not getting enough respect for that because their overall record for the year is not all that spiffy. These are the one’s you will want to find, and these are the one’s that you might will want to bet, if the number is a good one. The phrase “Under the Radar” comes to mind here.

Motivation
Some College Basketball Teams just want to win more than others. Finding those teams can be very good for your bankroll, but who are they? Why are they more motivated? While it is not a written rule, generally we have to have two things in place to have a motivated squad. We almost always have to have a group of Kids on the court that have been here before. It’s the Ole, been there, done that thing. But more importantly, it is teams that have a junior and senior laden roster. These guys are getting what might be their last chance to be the team cutting down the nets. In some cases, they have no real chance of doing that, but that does not mean that they will not give it the Ole College Try. These squads do not have to be the Big Boys of this Tournament, they can be the Winthrop’s, the Northern Iowa’s, the Cornell’s. These Guys are not going to go out without a fight, and in some cases they will be getting an inordinate amount of points from those Stupid Oddsmakers. Whoops, I said it again.

Money
Ok, here is another tricky one. While many might not agree with this statement I will throw it out there anyway. The NCAA Selection Committee wants to put the best teams on the court, but they also want the Tourney’s to make money. Including too many Big 10, Big East, and Big 12 squads in the group of 64 means that there will be high TV Revenue, high attendence, and more money. Oddsmakers know this too because these are not stupid people. (See Above) They know that we bettors as a whole, are going to bet these High Profile Teams and so they set lines that are maybe just a bit out of whack. That gives us some real bargains to work with, perhaps with those squads that are more motivated to win. You know, the junior and senior laden teams and the one’s that do what is written about below.

Mo D
No, this is not the name of a Famous Rapper. Well let me correct that. This might be the name of a Famous Rapper because I am not really up on the current one’s past MC Hammer. This Stands for More Defense. While overused a bit, it is a fair statement to make that Defense wins games. This is true in almost any sport but maybe more true in this tournament. Teams that allow less than 40% shooting are already well on their way to being competitive, especially in the Big Games, and let’s face it, all of these games are Big. You would be hardpressed to find any NCAA Champion that did not play Mo D than the rest of their opponents in these games. Mo D creates turnovers. Mo D creates fewer better quality shots by opponents. Mo D creates more fast break opportunities. The Simple fact is, Mo D allows for Mo O which gives teams Mo Memtum and therefore Mo Tivation late in games.

Mo Thoughts
The Tip of the Iceburg has been covered here but it is important to note that level of competition is also important. Not only who teams beat, but how often they played quality teams throughout the year and how they faired against them. Oddsmakers would like for you to believe that the Missouri Valley, CAA and other smaller groups of teams don’t play a good level of competition. They want you to buy into the fact that if they say Wisconsin is 10 points better than Wofford, then they are. These Oddsmaker Guys are not stupid. Have I said that yet?

March Madness Betting

RJ_Bell — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 07:14:00 GMT

BRACKET RULES | Perfect Odds? | Vegas Wins | Amazing Odds!

St. John's/Memphis Cheat Sheet
86% betting St. John's (SportsbookSpy.com)

NCAA Basketball Bracket Picking Rules You Should Never Break!

RJ_Bell — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 07:10:00 GMT

Sports betting authority RJ Bell of Pregame.com provides simple rules to improve anyone's bracket results.

Las Vegas, Nevada (March 15, 2010) - "Over 12 BILLION dollars is expected to be wagered on the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament - which is more than was bet on the Super Bowl," said RJ Bell of Pregame.com. "And over 40 million Americans are expected to take part in bracket-style office pools." No sporting event generates more action. Here are proven rules you should never break when picking your bracket.

1st round rules:
Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12.
#16 seeds are 0 for 100 in the modern era (since 1985).
#15 seeds are 4 for 100.
#13 and #14 seeds combined win only 18% of first round games.

Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: they have won 16 of 36 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last nine years. At least one #12 has won 19 of 21 years. 3 of 4 won last year.

#9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.

2nd round rules:
Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round. #1 seeds win their first two games 88% of the time.

Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. These teams win about half the time in Round Two. A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 23 of 25 years. Only once in 25 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen.

Seeds worse than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round. Only 6 of 400 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12.

Sweet 16 round rules:
Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. There's no reason to buck the math: 73% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 (23 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced).

Elite Eight round rules:
Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, the Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 20 of the last 25 years.

Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 100 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8.

Final Four round rules:
Advance NO team worse than a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 24 years.

Championship game rules:
Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all. For 21 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com. For follow-up questions, or media appearances - email: rjbell@pregame.com

RJ Bell of Pregame.com is the only sports bettor on Forbes' recent list of Gambling Gurus and has been called "a true insider" by ESPN, "incredibly astute" by AOL and a "point-spread maven" by USA Today. Mr. Bell has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), Mike & Mike, Colin Cowherd, Jim Rome, Dan Patrick, ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, Yahoo, CNN.com and in the Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, New York Times, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Bloomberg, Maxim, and Sports Illustrated. Pregme.com is the largest sports betting news website compliant with US Law.

TWITTER: Follow all of RJ Bell's news making releases at www.Twitter.com/RJinVegas

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Batum Goes Boom! - NBA RoundUp for 3/15

Dan Bebe — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 05:06:00 GMT

These openings are getting to be a bit long-winded, and until my amount of free time increases by, say 25%, I think it's time to put more of my energy into the game write-ups, and less into recapping records and yesterday's results. Side note: thanks to Goodfella for today's blog title!

So, quickly, we won yesterday with the Blazers, and picked up another Prop Bet winner on Tyreke Evans scoring over 19 points. Strong Sunday, hopefully the start to a much better week than the last one!

We're now 15-7-1 on our last 23 Paid Plays, and 23-13 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break. You guys know the long term record stands at 60% since mid-January (basically, when I shook off the Just-Turned Pro Jitters), so no need to list the exact numbers - they are all available at my Pro Page. Click this paragraph to get there.

Sports Wagering

Knicks @ Sixers - Philadelphia by 3.5 with a total of 210.5. Two teams with nothing to play for going head-to-head; just what we've always wanted, right? Well, there are still some angles at play that we might as well take a peek at, just in case this game turns out to be a value. Off the bat, it's pretty clear that the Sixers have mailed it in for this season. They've lost 8 of 9 games, and 3 straight, and generally they've been getting pummeled, as they're just 3-6 ATS in those 9 contests. Philadelphia got whipped by the Heat in Miami yesterday, though it's tough to call it a back-to-back, just because of the game being played on Sunday afternoon. Philly has been pretty middle-of-the-pack in back-to-back games anyway, and the fact that they're still laying 3.5 here is somewhat of a surprise to me. The Knicks come to town off an insane road blowout of the Dallas Mavericks. That game is tough to explain, though the Knicks certainly have the offensive tempo to put up some numbers. The Sixers aren't playing defense, they're not scoring much, and it looks like they're trying to give the young guys some more run, here. Again, it's tough to really claim that one team is a value in this one, since neither has any reason to give 100%, but I think when you've got two teams that both have nothing going on, it's a wise move to look at either the home team or the team getting points. Unfortunately, those are opposite sides in this game. Philadelphia has been awful at home at just 9-22 ATS, so perhaps that wipes out one angle, and I lean to the Knicks to at least take this sucker down to the wire, possibly win it outright. This total is awfully high, but you know New York wants a game up over 100, so I actually do have a slight lean to the Over.

Pistons @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 196. I would have loved to see Boston win yesterday in Cleveland, since that would have created downright MEGA value on the Pistons side, but even with the loss, I still think fading the Celtics at home is generally a decent bet. Unfortunately, Boston has actually been a more predictable look-ahead team this year than a letdown team. Coming off big games, they've done a decent job of covering spreads, though lately, those "letdown" spots have come on the road. We've talked at great length on the podcasts about that 9.5 number, and how it really entices the public to get on the favorite. It's not 10 points, so you're not laying double digits, and the public falls in love with the idea that surely the favorite can clear 9.5. But it's usually not so simple. The Pistons, despite their 9-10 ATS record in the season's second half, have actually been extremely predictable and successful when rested. Since the All Star Break, the Pistons are 7-3 ATS when on 1 day of rest, or more, and they had a day to gameplan here, and get those jump-shooting legs ready to roll. When on a back-to-back since the Break, the Pistons are an outstanding 0-5 ATS. If that doesn't tell you when to bet the Pistons, I don't know what does. I think this is a nice spot for them, as Detroit got beat by Boston at home earlier this month in a game that, really, Detroit could have won with a stronger second half. I think the Pistons are playing with pride right now, even if they're not winning much, but thanks to their pathetic mark in back-to-back games, they remain undervalued. I lean Detroit, since I think Boston has a mental lapse day, recovering from yesterday's mediocre effort in Cleveland. This total looks awfully high, but both teams have been playing less defensive-minded basketball than at any point in the last few years. I lean Over.

Nuggets @ Rockets - Denver by 3 with a total of 215.5. This side is very, very weird to me. I find it hard to believe the Nuggets are only 6-point neutral court favorites over Houston, but maybe my brain is just farting on this game. The Nuggets were laying 2 in Memphis on a back-to-back, so by that token, the Rockets are being ranked as 1-point better than the Grizzlies. It's almost as though someone got hurt, but I'm not aware of it, so for all the readers, if I missed something, please fill in the blanks. I can already tell that this game is going to be heavily bet on Denver, since it seems awfully easy to expect Denver to cover only 3 points in Houston, no? Something very weird about this game, and I can't quite put my finger on it. Yes, it's Denver's final game of their current 4-game road trip, but they've won 6 games in a row, and even in a game against Memphis that seemed like a trademark sluggish spot, Denver woke up and poured in 40 points in the 4th quarter. Quite frankly, while I feel like there's something going on with this line that I'm not quite processing, I wouldn't step in front of the Nuggets (again) without someone whispering to me that Carmelo Anthony has money on the opponent, or some similarly decisive inside information. I would love to say I lean to the Rockets, but I'm too busy scratching my head to lean in any direction. It's not a particularly good or bad spot for either team, and Denver had clubbed Houston twice already this year without much trouble. Be careful here. This total is the highest for any of the 3 meetings between these teams this year, which makes me think Houston and Denver get into a classic shootout, but with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games, I'm also concerned that it's just an inflated number. NO LEANS on this game.

Wizards @ Jazz - This line is OFF. Presumably because of Utah's injury issues. The Jazz are scuffling a little bit right now, dropping two straight games with the Bucks and the Thunder. Now, they have to head back home for a date with a team that doesn't seem all too interested in playing out the rest of the season. And that's a shame, too, because Utah is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and this would be a wonderful time to fade them if the competition wasn't so pathetic. The Wizards have lost 7 straight games, though I suppose the 2-5 ATS mark in that stretch isn't quite so horrid, still bad, though. Obviously, with Utah losing a couple in a row, the value of a play on Washington isn't quite as high, but I still contend that teams coming off a long stretch of solid play are sort of inclined to lose a few, or at least play less inspired basketball for a couple days before rounding back into shape. And while I want nothing more than to make a play on the Wizards, Washington played 3 games in 3 days, but only got 1 day off before this game in Utah, then another game tomorrow in Denver. This is a damn tiring stretch of basketball for both teams involved, which makes backing either club somewhat difficult. Still, when all is said and done, I have to lean to Washington. Even though they seem to have mailed it in, Utah is in a very difficult spot, and the spread is going to be massive on this one. In terms of the total, with both teams exhausted, I would think defense might be lacking, but at the same time, Washington hasn't cracked 100 points since Feb 26th. I might lean Under, depending on the line.

Hornets @ Clippers - This line is OFF. This line seems to be off because of Eric Gordon's injury, but man, you want to talk about two teams BOTH going down the toilet, this is that game. The Clippers are playing their first game home off a 5-game road trip that saw LA lose all 5 games, go 1-4 ATS, and of the 7 straight games the Clippers have lost, they've been blown out by 10 or more points in 6 of them, and lost the other game by 8. The Hornets lost in Phoenix last night, so they're probably going to be getting points in this game, and they've lost 8 straight games ATS. These are really 2 of the worst teams in the NBA right now, with the Bulls and Wolves also potential candidates for that award, and picking between the two is a struggle, to be sure. The Hornets have actually covered 10 straight games against the Clippers, and 8 of those 10 have gone over the posted total. Two of those 10 straight covers have come this season, but both of those games were in New Orleans. The question here is whether the Clippers can legitimately have a "first-game-home" letdown when they're losing nightly by 15-25 points. It almost seems like things can't get any worse for either of these teams. The Hornets, supposedly, are expecting Chris Paul back, so maybe they'll make one final push to rack up a few wins, and they did actually put forth a marginal effort last night in Phoenix before buckling to a better team, and they're 7-6 ATS on back-to-backs, so getting those 2 extra points might actually help their cause. I lean to the Hornets, who are sure to be a small road dog. I also lean to the Over, since I think the Clippers continue to struggle to defend (they've allowed 100 points in 8 straight), and the Hornets will continue to try to run, but might actually be able to score against a bad Clippers defense.

Lakers @ Warriors - Lakers by 7.5 with a total of 222. This game is 100% reliant on the Lakers actually trying. We know we're going to get a decent effort from the Warriors - those D-Leaguers are laying it on the line EVERY night, as they know one great game this year could potentially get them a contract for next season. Stephen Curry seems to be enjoying himself, and Monta Ellis, if healthy, is one of the tougher covers in the NBA. So, we know the Warriors are going to give a strong effort, especially against a marquee opponent like the Lakers. And are the Lakers really a 10.5 or 11-point neutral court favorite? That's a huge number of points to lay on the road, but again, if the Lakers give 90%, they can cover this number. The sheer size advantage the Lakers have over the Warriors is absurd, since Golden State's starting 5 is predominantly under 6'6", with a few exceptions, of course. But the Warriors have quietly covered 3 in a row and 6 of 8, so they're a good value right now, as one of the few BAD teams in the NBA still playing hard. In fact, aside from the fact that they're so wildly overmatched by the Lakers, the Warriors should be a good bet the rest of the season, as long as the D-Leaguers keep giving 100% - bad teams that are motivated to prove themselves are an amazing bet all year long, but even moreso as we hit the stretch run, and other teams start to mail it in. The Lakers are coming off a win on the road in Phoenix, so the obvious concern is that they're getting things turned around, and that makes me hesitant to back Golden State here. Also, LA beat Golden State 130-97 in Oakland earlier this year. I have a tiny lean to the Warriors because of the value, but we're talking TINY. The total intrigues me, since it seems awfully high. The Lakers haven't played that many high-scoring games lately, and I'm interested in seeing the bet% breakdown on this game, as that will give us a better indicator if this line is inflated or set high because oddsmakers believe the Warriors will crack 100 points. At first glance, I lean Over, but that is subject to change.

NCAA / NIT Tourney Primer

Tony George — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:07:00 GMT

By Tony George

THE SUPER BOWL OF BETTING IS HERE. Bear in mind with March Madness already showing that underdogs rule this time of year and nothing comes easy, it is good food for thought in the NIT and NCAA Tourneys.

MANAGE YOUR EXPECTATIONS. I went 63% overall in the Big Dance last year. I hit a big play for 3 units in the second round. I consider that a HUGE success. Anyone who exceeds 65% in the post season in the NCAA should be dipped in gold, and I mean some talented cappers, or the average Joe will struggle to reach that mark of excellence.

While 18 years of experience counts, I have learned through failures and losses that left me in a stupor and scratching my head, that again, NOTHING comes easy in the post season tourneys in the NCAA. There will be thrillers, last second miracles, big seeds will fall early, the usual drama that affects bankrolls quickly and often. Proceed with caution and some expert advise and lots of homework to narrow down your choices and FLAT BET your plays.

Everyone gets very excited with brackets and their bets, but do not lose site of the fact that the wagering in this tourney has to be approached with low volume and surgical strikes, which means finding ways and angles to emphasize underdogs at every turn. Defense is KEY in the post season and good guard play always is a huge advatage as well as free throw percentage.

If you bet more than 4 plays a day, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. It is just too risky to lay more than 6 out there right now in any game, and after the top 10-12 teams, it will be a crapshoot because there is going to be more parity in this tourney that I have seen in quite some time. There are not a lot of GREAT teams out there this year, and lots of average teams. Many non brand name cappers will be selling the moon and hyping it up (ones not on this site) to capture the publics attention because this is the biggest betting deal around, the grand daddy of them all, more so than the Super Bowl, so again, use your head.

There is no clear cut favorite to win it all, and I am talking straight up. Kansas will struggle to win it all, as they faced no frontcourt all season in the Big 12 that challenged them. That will not be the case in this Tourney, especially against teams from the Big East and Kentucky as an example from the SEC.

The NIT tourney is all about Home Teams in the opening 2 rounds. Look at home records of teams, the road records of their opponets, and do some math on the numbers. It will serve you well. There will be a TON of equally matched teams in this tourney and the homecourt may be the advantage at days end.

Just some random thoughts from an 18 veteran capper who has seen his fair share of March Madness games over the span of time. I tell it like it is. There IS opportunity to win some good money in the post season, but using your head and staying level with your bets, and managing those expectations will mazimize profits and minimize losses.

March Madness package on Sale Monday for $109 from Tony George. Found at www.pregamepros.com

Hornets at Suns

GM of Picks — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 14:39:00 GMT

Suns 9-1 ATS last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
They are in that role Sunday vs. the Hornets. Cheat Sheet
Hornets 65% of bets, Suns 35% (SportsbookSpy.com)

Who Shot J.R.? - NBA RoundUp for 3/14

Dan Bebe — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 12:09:00 GMT

That title came at the request of a buddy, and maybe it's too soon to poke fun at our Big Play that went down in flames, I do like the idea of at least trying to take those 4th quarter meltdowns in stride.

I admit, I was at a very good friend's wedding all day and night yesterday (I was a groomsman, so I had to be down at the hotel early for pictures, drinks, etc.), but reading through the blog comments from yesterday, I didn't need to check the final or box score to know we weren't in good shape.

Again, checking scores, it appears as though the Spurs tore the Clippers a new one yet again, so at least the Free Play came through, we salvaged a 1-1 day, but certainly some losses for those that played the Big One at full value.

Like I said in the blog's last post yesterday, I certainly can't apologize for the Grizzlies falling apart, but I can definitely apologize for thinking they wouldn't -- so, guys, I sucked the big weenie on that one, and it's time to get back to winning. That sounds good - let's do that.

And because it's nearly 4:30 a.m. here on the West coast, I'm going to break down the early games and the later ones that I have STRONG LEANS in before sleep, then complete the others tomorrow, time permitting!!

Sports Wagering

Pacers @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 9.5 with a total of 202.5. We had that odd game about 3 weeks ago where the Bucks went into Indiana as a 2-point road favorite and won by a bucket. That line was one of the true head-scratchers of the last month or so, and I avoided it. Here, we have a line that makes more sense, in my opinion. The Bucks are probably the hottest team in the NBA -- they've won 5 in a row and 11 of 12 straight up, and their last 3 wins were at home over Boston, Cleveland (no Lebron, though), and Utah. Those are three very impressive victories. So, the question here is whether Milwaukee can get the juices flowing for a game with the pathetic Pacers of Indiana. I happen to think they will. The Bucks are rolling, and this is the final game of that 4-game homestand before Milwaukee embarks on a 3-game roadie out West. Indiana, meanwhile, has a banged up Danny Granger that is probable to play, but certainly not 100%, and they're pretty much running out the clock on 2010. They also pushed Milwaukee to the brink in that game mentioned above. I think Scott Skiles makes sure his guys take the Pacers seriously this time, and this one could be a blowout. I lean weakly to the Bucks, and weakly to the Under, as Milwaukee is on a 5-game under run, and they've been imposing a defensive will on games, which might even be more impressive than the wins themselves.

Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. I would love to find a way to back the Celtics in this game. There, I said it. Boston is about as undervalued as they're ever going to be, but the obvious concern is whether or not they're actually good enough to keep a game with a superior team like Cleveland remotely close. Boston had been dinking and doinking along for a bit, losing on the road in Milwaukee, then at home to the Grizzlies before picking up an easy winner over the hapless Pacers in their last game. The biggest issue with the Celtics, though, is not that they can't win games. Boston is still a decent team, but they just don't seem to have the firepower on offense to keep up with superb offensive clubs, or the lateral mobility on defense to stymie the better teams in the NBA, at least not like in years past. Still, with Lebron just working his way back into top form, I happen to think the Cavs are going to be a bit overvalued here, when the line does finally decide to show up. Cleveland is coming off a road win, but failed cover in Philadelphia, and they've actually covered only 1 of their last 4 games, and that was the screwball win over the Spurs. The Cavs beat Boston on the road about 2 and a half weeks ago, so there is a measure of revenge for the Celtics, and I happen to think Boston is the team with more to prove, especially in a big game setting. I think we'll see Boston getting potentially as many as 7-8 points, and that's a ton to cover in an early game. I lean Celtics, and we all know how I feel about Boston in big game situations -- they're going to try to make this game as ugly as possible. I lean Under.

Sixers @ Heat - This line is OFF.

Bobcats @ Magic - This line is OFF.

Jazz @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 204.5. This is the game of the night, from a purely basketball-enjoyment standpoint, and as evidenced by the fact that I'm breaking it down early (not Sunday morning - read the opening few paragraphs if this doesn't make sense), indicates that I do have a lean on it. That lean is to the Thunder. I realize after watching the NBA every day all season long, this lean seems obvious to the loyal blog-folk, but quickly, the reasoning: Oklahoma City is coming off a narrow 2-point win over the Nets, a trademark sign of a look-ahead. The Thunder had blown out the Hornets prior to the game with Jersey (and as has been noted by Denmarkok, the Hornets are actually a very emotional opponent for the Thunder), and so that Nets game was really the sandwich. So far, so good - we leaned Thunder in the game against New Orleans, leaned Nets in the next one, and if the sandwich completes itself with another "bun", we like the Thunder here. Interestingly, Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both questionable, and even more interestingly, the Thunder might be the toughest opponent in the League for the Jazz. Utah has lost to Oklahoma twice already this year, though both of those games were back in 2009. The Thunder are stronger now, and the Jazz are on the last game of a road trip - they're coming off a loss in Milwaukee, which can also stifle momentum. And that is why the lean is as such on the side. The total feels high, since these teams have played fairly slow games both times this year, but perhaps oddsmakers believe one or two quarters end up as shootouts - tough to say, though I still think the importance of this game is going to cause Oklahoma to bring the defense, and keep this Under.

Hornets @ Suns - Phoenix by 8.5 with a total of 211.5. I'll take "Teams That Can't Cover" for $200, please. The Hornets have lost 7 straight, ATS. The Suns have lost 3 in a row. Which team will buckle first? There really isn't any value in this game, and my feelings that the Hornets just have nothing left in the tank are being confirmed. I'm doing this write-up early, because I would recommend staying away from the side in this game. These teams have indeed met 3 times already this year, and Phoenix has taken 2 of those 3, including the most recent meeting, February 1, in New Orleans. So, you could say there's a measure of revenge, but I happen to think this line is pretty accurate. Phoenix might bounce back off the tough loss to the Lakers and blow the Hornets out by 25, or there's about a 50/50 shot Phoenix has a letdown for, say, the first half of this one, the Hornets race out to a lead, and Phoenix has to battle to win by 5 or 6. I just don't like those odds - coin flips are long term losers, and I would recommend a No-Play on the side. On the total, well, the clear problem with liking the over is that the Hornets just haven't been scoring against anyone with a player listed over 6'10" on their team. The Hornets have eclipsed 100 points just 1 time in their last 10 games, and it was against the Warriors. They've scored exactly 100 points a few times in there, but for the most part, the tiring offense of New Orleans is leading to final scores in the mid-90's. That means we'd need 115 from Phoenix to get to the total, and I don't think the Suns are going to care to hang that kind of number. I lean Under.

Wolves @ Kings

Raptors @ Blazers - Portland by 8.5 with a total of 203. This game has one glaring angle that needs to be pursued -- the Raptors complete and utterly absurd inability to function on zero sleep. I mean, there are some bad teams in the NBA, and there are some very old, rickety teams in the NBA, and none of them compares to Toronto's ineptitude in these spots. They are 3-12 ATS in back-to-back games, and Toronto's not that awful overall. They're 29-33 ATS on the season, but a good deal of those recent losses came with Chris Bosh out. Bosh or no Bosh, Toronto loses by an average of almost 12 points when they're playing back-to-back games on the road, and by over 10 in all back-to-back spots. This also happens to be the final game of their current road trip before the long flight back to Canada, where we'll see Toronto take a couple days off before hosting the Hawks. To be perfectly fair, the value isn't great on either side in this game. The line of 8.5 is probably about a half-point of line value for the Raptors, if anything, and it really makes me wonder why we're getting such a fair line. It could have something to do with the focus on College ball right now, but sometimes it's best not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I lean Portland. I know it's a revenge game for Toronto, but let's be honest, how badly do the Raptors really want this game? On the total, I'm inclined to look at the Over, since Toronto's defense on back-to-back games is just abysmal.

COLLEGE TOURNAMENT HANDICAPPING

Rob Crowne — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 20:00:00 GMT

Successfully handicapping the NCAA Conference Playoffs and the NCAA Tournament requires an awareness of the special factors the game location presents. The supposedly neutral sites are not necessarily neutral.

To analyze any advantage that may lie in the location of the game, you must fully understand the factors that create a home court advantage. What is generally referred to as the home court edge is actually comprised of two equal parts - the advantage to the home team of being home, and the disadvantage to the road team of playing on the road. Some of the home team edge may come from the physical court itself. In basketball, the dimensions of the arena, acoustics, sight lines, bounce in the floorboards, tightness of the baskets, and proximity of the crowd to the players, and amenities in the locker room can all play a part in providing an edge to the home team. The factors don't end with the physical court, however. Here are the home edge factors and road disadvantage factors that may come from the geographical location of the game, and will exist independent of the court on which the game is played.

HOME ADVANTAGE:

1 The crowd.

The effect of the crowd cannot be underestimated. The closer a game is to the campus of a team, the larger the fan base can be expected to be for that team. Teams playing a short drive from their campus will have a much larger contingent of fans than a team that traveled across the country for a game. It is a demonstrable fact that tournament teams playing in their home state have a higher tournament win-rate than teams from other states.

State lines, however, are not always a good indicator. In some cases, a game may be played sufficiently close to one team's campus to create a natural fan base even though the game is being played in a different state. For example, in the Atlantic 10 Conference, the 2009 Season Tournament is being played in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Even though Atlantic City is in a different State, Philadelphia, PA is so close that a large percentage of the hotel and casino workers in Atlantic City commute from residences in Philadelphia. Temple, located in Philadelphia, is likely to have a larger attendance of fans than a team that is playing in its home state, but on a court that is 400 miles from the campus.

2. Friends and Family

Having personal friends and family at the game can provide a great deal of incentive. The advantage of friends in the crowd is a function of the distance of the court from the campus, not the physical court itself.

3. Travel Time

Anybody who has ever taken a long trip by bus knows how uncomfortable and exhausting it is. After sitting in a bus or an airplane for hours your legs get cramped. When you arrive your legs feel wobbly. You are not ready to walk let alone play basketball. This problem is compounded by the fact that buses and planes are not designed for very tall people with very long legs. Basketball players spend hours with their legs in tight, uncomfortable quarters. When they stand, they cannot stand up straight without hitting their heads. A trip that is difficult and uncomfortable for an average size person, is four times worse for a basketball player.

On Saturday, March 13, 2010, Tennessee is playing in its home state. Nevertheless, it is a solid 3+ hour bus ride to Nashville, where the game is being played. Tennessee will either need to travel 3-4 hours on the day of the game, or stay in a hotel with all the disadvantages of any road team. Thus, the only advantage that the location will give to Tennessee over their semi-final opponent, Kentucky is that the crowd is more likely to root for a Tennessee team. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, will have every home advantage available at the Sommet Center. If Vanderbilt and Tennessee should happen to meet in the Championship Game, Vanderbilt should be considered the home team, and Tennessee should be considered the visitor. .

ROAD DISADVANTAGE:

Physical Effects of Travel

If you have ever experienced irregular bowel movements, excess fatigue, or insomnia during the first few days of a vacation trip, you understand the effect that sleeping I a different place, eating different food, and in some cases being in a different time zone can have on your body. Not sleeping in your bed, not eating your usual food, not eating on your normal schedule, and not sleeping and waking on your normal schedule all have negative effects on a road team.

2. Practice Schedules

The road team must share the available court time, locker space and meeting space with all the other road teams in the tournament. Scheduled practices may be inconvenient, or too short, and lockers may be crowded and uncomfortable. A player who wants extra practice time at the free throw line, may not be able to get it. Compare that to the situation for a team with a campus only a half hour away from the tournament site. They can practice in their usual campus gym at their usual times and for as long as they desire.

3. Distractions

Being away from home can create a number of distractions. In some locations, such as Las Vegas, Hawaii, or Miami, just walking to dinner can present distractions. Some teams lack the discipline to perform well in locations in which they would rather be taking spring break.

Of course, all the advantages of the home fans and short travel time enjoyed by the local team are equal and opposite disadvantages for teams that are attending from distant campuses.

Often the lines are set based on the public perception that the game is being played on a neutral court. Mapping distances between the campuses and the tournament arena, and adding or subtracting points for local advantages and disadvantages can provide a winning edge over the line in many games.

I discussed handicapping for a neutral court in a blog article last year entitled, "March Madness Statistical Handicapping."

NBA Saturday 03-13...NBA, When weird stuff happens!!!

andre gomes — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 16:09:00 GMT

NBA SEASON RECORD:

American MM (+23.64 units)
European MM (+19.66 units)

            European    American
Week 1    -6.28        -8.30
Week 2    -6.82        -7.70
Week 3    -14.61       -16.74
Week 4     1.02         0.60
Week 5     21.15       22.40
Week 6     12.58       13.55
Week 7   -30.25       -32.80
Week 8    -1.88        -2.28
Week 9     19.41       21.30
Week 10    9.47        8.98
Week 11    19.15      20.82
Week 12    10.45      11.48
Week 13    -33.89     -37.30
Week 14    15.48      16.10
Week 15     4.67        5.20
Week 16    4.03        4.40
Week 17    -13.81    -15.15
Week 18    2.22        2.40
Week 19   10.98      12.00
Week 20    0.57       0.70

Yesterday recap:

3 units on Over CLE/PHI 198   LOSS

3 units on DENVER -5   WIN

3 units on BOSTON -9   WIN

3 units on Under CHI/MIA 190.5   LOSS

3 units on Over NJN/OKC 193.5   WIN

Daily Message:

We are coming from a profitable day but once again I feel that we could have a better night. It looks like we are present in every weird game in the NBA…but obviously on the wrong side. Last night, the Cavs and the Sixers combined to score 70 points in the first quarter and then 77 points…in the entire second half! However the weirdest stuff happened in the Bulls/Heat game. By looking to the final score you can say that the Under 190.5 points play was never “in reach” but just look to this:

With 4:43 to go in the final quarter the score was 90-77 for Miami (167 points) - We have a good chance to win the Under or at least it will be tight race for both ways. Then:

4:43   Brad Miller flagrant foul type 1 (Dwyane Wade draws the foul)
4:43   Kirk Hinrich technical foul (1st technical foul)
4:43   Brad Miller technical foul (1st technical foul)
4:43   Kirk Hinrich technical foul (2nd technical foul)

Miami will have 5 free throws in the same ball possession!!! Kirk Hinrich was obviously ejected and in his place:

4:43   Jannero Pargo enters the game for Kirk Hinrich

What happened next? Well…

4:16   Jannero Pargo makes 25-foot three point jumper
3:48   Jannero Pargo makes 25-foot three point jumper
2:14   Jannero Pargo makes two point shot
1:47   Jannero Pargo makes driving layup
1:12   Jannero Pargo makes 17-foot jumper

Jannero Parko who supposedly was done for the game comes in to replace Hinrich and scores 12 points in 4 minutes! LOL

I also want to share one game that happened this season and thank god we didn’t have a play in that game. The game was between the Cavaliers and the Wolves. The lines were Cavs by 13 and 201 points.

With 19 seconds to go the score was 105-95 for the Cavs with the Cavaliers having the ball so the game is over right? (Right now the Wolves would have covered the spread and the Under was a winner play).

Answer: No! The Wolves committed 2 fouls that sent the Cavs to the FT line. After all the Wolves’ players thought that with 19 seconds to go and trailing by 10 in CLEVELAND they still had chances to win the contest…LOL

0:14   Ramon Sessions personal foul (Jamario Moon draws the foul)
0:11   Al Jefferson personal foul (Zydrunas Ilgauskas draws the foul)

Well, Ilgauskas converted both free throws and the score was 107-95 for the Cavaliers with 11 seconds to go. Unfortunately Kevin Love committed a turnover in the inbound play and so the Cavaliers had the ball back. With 9 seconds left, trailing by 12 points and with the Cavaliers having the ball, the game is now over right? Wait….the Wolves are still covering the 13-points spread!!! So what you do?

0:09   Kevin Love personal foul (Jawad Williams draws the foul)
0:09 95-108 Jawad Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
0:09 95-109 Jawad Williams makes free throw 2 of 2

Finally with the Cavaliers winning by 14 points and covering the spread, the game can now come to an end and that was it. If you took the Cavaliers -13 in that game we can consider yourself a lucky guy, in my case it was another case of “NBA, when weird stuff happens”.

Injury report for today:

- Clippers Eric Gordon is still doubtful for tonight;
- Guard Ty Lawson is doubtful for tonight;
- Ronny Turiaf is also doubtful for tonight;