Sports Betting

The Pregame.com Show becoming a reality for football picks season!

Matty O'Shea — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:23:00 GMT

I am very excited to announce that the Pregame Content team will be launching a new podcast in late August to discuss both NFL picks and college football picks before each week's games kick off. The addition of Tommy Rider to our staff gives us another great personality to showcase here at Pregame for your benefit, enabling you the opportunity to use his insider NFL knowledge to your advantage.

Here is the current lineup of roundtable contributors who have committed to the show...

Vegas-Runner has become a Vegas folklore phenomenon. You would hear stories of people who would move large sums of money in Vegas for people back East know as syndicates and Vegas-Runner is living proof to the urban legend. Vegas-Runner offers his "Inside the Steam" knowledge on the major games of the Weekend.

Marco D'Angelo will provide his handicapping insights into the world of football handicapping. Bringing 28 years experience to the table, Marco will offer his expert line-reading analysis to the show and break down what Vegas is trying to accomplish with the number they have set on the game.

Tommy Rider is Pregame's newest member who brings with him true NFL Insider information as Tommy worked for the New England Patriots before joining Pregame. Tommy's previous job has opened doors to inside NFL information not available to the general public. Tommy's NFL connections will let him reach out for key information that only other NFL insiders have access to.

Matty O'Shea is the numbers guru. As the GM of Content and chief contributor to the Pregame Cheat Sheet, Matty knows his numbers. Anyone can break down stats, but knowing which stats are pertinent and which ones are fluff separates the squares from the insiders.

We will also have other special guests contribute throughout the year remotely, including other Pregame Pros who are not with us here in person to help us produce the show. Keep in mind we are doing this for YOU to offer yet another means to get to know us and learn more about sports betting directly from the gambling capital of the world in Las Vegas. Please let us know what topics you would like us to discuss, and we will do our best to accommodate your needs and give you the best football picks show anywhere!

FREE Premium MLB Pick from Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson! 5* GAME OF THE MONTH ALERT!

Rocky Atkinson — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:24:00 GMT

Texas @ Chicago White Sox 2:05 PM EST
Play On: 3* Chicago White Sox -110 (Millwood/Richard) Listed

Clayton Richard was 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 38 innings pitched in 6 games at AAA Charlotte. He had 29 strikeouts compared to only 4 walks. Texas is scoring only 4.4 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 3.20 ERA overall this year and a 3.48 ERA at home this year. Millwood is 2-5 with a 5.18 ERA on the road this year and 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA his last 3 starts. Millwood is 1-4 overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997. We'll play the Chicago White Sox for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has his TOP RATED 5* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH, TOP 4* MLB play and two 3* MLB plays on Wednesday! Rocky has hit 63% the past 15 days with all premium picks! Big money today! Get on board by 1 pm est!

What is the best live concert you have ever seen?

Matty O'Shea — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:45:00 GMT

I have apparently taken a lot of heat for seeing Coldplay last weekend, and combined with JD's blog regarding what you're listening to on you iPod it got me thinking, what is the best concert you have ever seen live?

I've seen The Killers a few times, and they definitely put on a great show. But the most memorable shows for me have to be Billy Idol a couple years ago at The Joint in the Hard Rock Casino here in Las Vegas, Pearl Jam at Soldier Field back in 1995 and the Summer Sanitarium Tour with Metallica, Kid Rock, Korn, Powerman 5000 and System of a Down in 2000. The Pearl Jam show was significant because that was the year they boycotted using Ticketmaster, and it was one of the few live shows they did all summer (plus they were in their prime and still rocked back then). The Summer Sanitarium also has to rank as the best collection of groups I have ever seen.

I'm still waiting for my all-time favorite band Led Zeppelin to come back but realize that may never happen despite numerous rumors. Seeing them at this point could also be as disappointing as a Madonna sex tape now, so maybe it's for the best that they stay retired for good.

Anyway, what is the best live concert you have ever seen?

2008 ACC Preview

Lenny Del Genio — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:55:00 GMT

To understand where the ACC is right now on the college football landscape, you must first understand where this league was supposed to be. When league officials raided the Big East several years ago, taking Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College, the ACC was supposed to become the nations next superpower conference, right along the same lines of the SEC and Big 12.

Quite simply, that hasnt happened. Miami has been a total bust as they have yet to even reach the ACC Title Game. Virginia Tech and BC have both been considerably better, even meeting in last years Championship, but consider that this is a league that placed no team in the Top 10 in 2006 and then had VT at #9 as its highest finisher last year. Compounding the problem is that former league kingpin, Florida State, seems to be stuck in neutral having not won more than eight games in any year since the conference went to two divisions. The Seminoles are just 19-13 in ACC since expansion after capturing 12 of the leagues previous 16 titles.

Therefore, the ACC enters 2008 without a true national title contender, the only league amongst BCS conferences that can make such a claim. Those who follow the ACC closely will point to Clemson as the odds-on-favorite and a potential Top 5 team, but keep in mind that Tommy Bowden still runs this program. Last year, the Tigers were probably the best team in the conference and had the Atlantic Division Crown in its sights before dropping a home game to BC, 20-17, as eight-point favorites.
Clemson does return 16 starters this year, including QB Cullen Harper and RBs CJ Spiller and James Davis. They have not won an ACC Title since 1990 and to do so this year, they must survive road trips to fellow Atlantic contenders Wake Forest and Florida State. We will learn a lot about the Tigers in the opening week of the season when they meet Alabama in a neutral site affair (Atlanta). A win there and a 5-0 start is almost assured.

Florida State has its most returning starters (15) since the 1999 National Title team and essentially plays eight home games this season (7 true + vs. Colorado in Jacksonville), so Bobby Bowden will battle with his son all year long for the right to go to the ACC Title Game.
Wake Forest is another wildcard as the Deacons return 14 starters for what might be Jim Grobes best team yet. Keep in mind that Wake has never posted three consecutive winning seasons since joining the conference in 1953.

Over in the Coastal Division, the race is wide open. Virginia Tech is the incumbent, but the Hokies return just 10 starters from last years conference championship team. Anyone who watched last years Orange Bowl cant be a fan of QB Sean Glennon. Frank Beamer must replace his starting RB, top 4 WRs and top 4 tacklers from a year ago.

Therefore, with so many question marks at the top, the point of this preview will be to identify the one sleeper team to keep an eye on. That team, for us, will be Butch Davis North Carolina Tar Heels. Davis was a pretty sub-par NFL coach in Cleveland, but he has been very successful at this level. This team was a lot better than last years 4-8 record might indicate as six of those losses were by a touchdown or less. They draw Virginia Tech at home this year and last year actually outgained the Hokies 306-241 in a 17-10 setback. Eighteen returning starters is also a cause for rejoice.

The rest of the Coastal Division is loaded with question marks. Miami returns only 11 starters, but that might be a good thing. However, the Hurricanes top 3 QBs on the depth chart have never thrown a pass at this level. Georgia Tech has even less returning starters (9) and must play both Florida State and Clemson, unlike other division foes. Virginia was basically the anti-UNC last year, winning an NCAA record five games by two points or less. In other words, the Cavs werent nearly as good as their 6-2 conference record might indicate. Duke is 0-24 in conference play since the ACC was realigned.
Getting back to the Atlantic, Boston College will obviously take a step back due to the departure of QB Matt Ryan. Maryland did beat both Rutgers and BC last season, so they can be a darkhorse. Finally, we have NC State, who lost a stunning 47% of their letterman from a last years team that won just three conference games.

Overall, the ACC is too close to call and is a conference that wont be sending anyone to the BCS Title Game. However, we really do like North Carolina as a surprise team that could very well wind up in the ACC Title Game and be a solid value wager throughout the season.

Good Luck, Lenny

Johnny Detroit's College Football Pick: Who is #1?

Johnny Detroit — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:20:00 GMT

I know USC reloads and does not rebuild. I know Ohio State has almost the entire team back and will probably make a third straight trip to the BCS Title Game. But, and a big BUT, with the SEC being the best conference in college football, there is no way you can start off the season and NOT give the top spot to the best team in the best conference. The SEC has won three of the past five National Championship (this does not include Auburn being shafted when 13-0 in 2004). If the BCS is the best of the best, than the SEC winning 7 of their past 9 appearances (outscoring other conferences the past four years in the BCS 161-62) is just the cherry on top of the Southern Sundae. So if anyone is make college football picks this season, it is nearly impossible to not give the SEC their proper respect and make the Georgia Bulldogs the #1 ranked team to start the season.

Georgia finished their season with a 41-10 massacre of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl and go into this year returning the following:

Starting quarterback Matt Stafford (who only lost one receiver from last season)
Starting runningback Knowshon Moreno
Oh yeah, and nine starters on defense

The only thing that could stand in the way of Georgia going to the BCS Title to play either USC or Ohio State will be their schedule. Toss out the SEC portion, which includes road games to South Carolina, LSU and Auburn, but they also play Arizona State (should finish 2nd to USC in the PAC 10) on the road and finish the season at home against Georgia Tech before heading to the SEC Championship.

It is hard to find a flaw in Georgia this season. They have depth across the board on a team that closed 2007-08 putting up close to 40 points in four of their last six games. Honestly, I think even the waterboy crew is all seasoned veterans! The Bulldogs are Johnny Detroit's #1 team in college football this year until the scoreboard says otherwise.

Who is Your Sleeper Team in CFB this Season?

Tommy Rider — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:54:00 GMT

Tyrell Fenroy and Louisiana Lafayette are one of Tommy Rider's sleeper teams in CFB this season.

As I finish up all my college football work for the upcoming season, I will be posting blog posts on my "bet on" and "bet against" teams soon. But today I was thinking of a team I really like as a sleeper. Now, I like Oklahoma State and North Carolina to be better than some but those teams aren't really sleepers in the true sense of the word. There are a lot of people who like NC to be much better this year and the lines on them in some of the Game of the Years posted back up that point.

I'm talking more about a team flying under the radar that even if they don't have a winning season, will be a moneymaker against the spread throughout the year. My sleeper team to keep an eye on this season is Louisiana Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns won two of their final three games in 2007 and have one of the nation's top ground games led by QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy - who is one of the better unknown players in the country. Lou-Laf also returns four starters along the offensive line to clear the way for its explosive rushing attack.

Granted, the defense was Swiss cheese last year and may not be a whole lot better this season. However. the Ragin' Cajuns opened up as a 14-point underdog against Southern Miss in Week 1 and I think there is a lot of value in that line (Sorry Chuck). Plus, they play road games against Illinois and Kansas State, where they are sure to be huge underdogs. With their 45 returning lettermen and imposing ground game that can control the clock, I like Lou-Laf in the underdog role this year. I think the Ragin' Cajuns have a chance to do some damage in the Sun Belt Conference but more importantly, I believe they will do a lot damage against the pointspread.

Who are some teams you've found during your CFB research that you believe are flying under the radar and could be potential moneymakers this upcoming football season?

Marc Lawrence's Top NFL Futures Pick for 2008

Matty O'Shea — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:48:00 GMT

By Marc Lawrence
Pregame Pros Handicapper

First off, let me say Im not a strong advocate of play NFL Win Total Futures. For one, your money is tied up from the time you make your play until the season is over. Second, the future play you make can often times critically influence other handicaps you make either on or against that same team down the road in the regular season, especially late in the year, if you let it.

That being said, there is generally one or two situational or statistical based future plays that surface each season that combine both value and solid handicapping logic. On the NFL front this season there is one such play that warrant such a play. Lets take a look

CINCINNATI BENGALS OVER 7.5 +120

Nobody likes laying the juice when it comes to making a bet. It's always nice when you're on the plus side of a wagering proposition. It's even better when you cash that proposition.

Taking +120 on this NFL pick means the majority of players, in addition to the linemaker, feel the 'other side' of the wager is the right side. When you disprove that thought you not only put yourself on the 'right side' of the play but also the 'value side' as well.

Last year the Bengals were the only team in the NFL to finish the season with improved stats on both sides of the ball, yet declined both SU and ATS. Teams in this situation almost always improve their win production the following year.

Cincinnati was 2-6 at the midway point of the season in 2007, yet refused to fold when they won five of their eight remaining contests - only to end the year at 7-9. Should they not fall into the same early hole this year as last, they close out the 2nd half of the campaign against foes that combined to go just 65-64 overall last year.

With Marvin Lewis on the hot seat, look for this underachieving but talented bunch to eclipse last year's production en route to a playoff effort in 2008.

There you have it. My take on what I perceive to be a solid NFL Win Total play for the 2008 season ahead. Good luck.

99.9% Chance Something Funny About NBA Ref Foster

RJ_Bell — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:25:00 GMT

Update: Big Money was 10-0 in Accused Refs Games

Las Vegas, Nevada (7/21/08) RJ Bell of Pregame.com reported last week that big money bettors won 7 of 7 times in games refereed by Scott Foster during the period under investigation. Now, with added information provided by an NBA insider, a comprehensive list of games refereed by Scott Foster reveals even stronger evidence of wrong-doing.

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, 10 games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those 10 teams were UNDEFEATED against Vegas meaning that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 10 of 10 times on Fosters games; the odds of that happening randomly are greater than 1000 to 1 against!

Stats alone should not convict, but when big money bettors win 10 straight times on a supposed 50/50 event, the odds are over 99.9% against that being just a coincidence, said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

One of the new games particularly stands out: January 12, 2007 Rockets played at Denver; Houston opened a 1-point favorite and was bet up to minus 3; the Rockets won by 4, holding a 28-to-17 free-throw edge over the home team Nuggets.

Also of note is the number of games refereed by Foster and Donaghy that resulted in big line moves. Ten of 62 games involving Foster during the period under investigation had line moves of 2 points or more (16% of games). Eight of 73 games refereed by Donaghy during 06-07 had line moves of 2 points or more (11%) of games. Combined, the two questionable referees had big line moves in 13% of their games. A random sample of the first 100 NBA games of December 2007 resulted in only 6% of games having a line move of 2 points or more. RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: Donaghy and Fosters games had big line moves over double as often as a random sample of NBA games.

Two of the original seven games stand out: On January 19, 2007 the Kings opened as a 1.5-point favorites at Boston; betting on Sacramento moved the line to -4.5. Kings won by 5, shooting 25 free throws, versus only 14 free throws for the home team Celtics. On March 20, 2007 the Nuggets opened as 2.5-point underdogs at New Jersey. Denver was bet so heavily, they closed as 1-point favorites. Denver won by 4, shooting 32 free throws versus only 22 for the home team Nets.

In prior reporting widely carried by the national media, RJ Bell of Pregame.com uncovered that big-money bettors won 15 straight lopsidedly bet games refereed by Tim Donaghy during the 2006-2007 season.

Inside the numbers of this study: Teams bet in a disproportionate fashion typically win only around 50% against the Las Vegas line. Wins and losses determined against the opening number. The time frame considered: Opening Day 2006 through March 31, 2007.

MEDIA NOTE: Print, radio, TV, and Internet media should feel free to quote any information above. Please attribute: RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

For complete game-by-game details, follow-up questions, or media appearances email: rjbell@pregame.com

About RJ Bell of Pregame.com
RJ Bell, president of http://Pregame.com, has been featured on CBS News with Katie Couric, ABC News with Charles Gibson, Nightline, Sportscenter, Outside the Lines (ESPN), First Take (ESPN2), ESPN.com, ESPN National Radio, Yahoo, AOL.com, CNN.com and in Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Associated Press, LA Times, Newsweek.com, Maxim, and Forbes.

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MONEY MANAGEMENT MEANS EVERYTHING...ARE YOU WILLING to PROFIT ??

vegas-runner — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:40:00 GMT

I have so many topics in mind that I am dying to cover here in my Blog which deal with handicapping and professional sports betting...And because I was fortunate to be brought up in this game surrounded by the most successful and sharpest bettors to ever make a wager, I was able to learn first-hand all about handicapping. In fact, those early years had helped lay the foundation for everything that I do now. Although the way I handicapp games today is a based on years of tweaking that foundation, the bottom line will always be that without that early training, as well as the opportunity to ask 1,000s of questions to guys that have been able to beat this market for a very long time...I am sure that I would not have the kind of results that I do...

You see, the handicapping part of it is not the hard part...and although it has come to my attention since taking on this venture and getting the chance to see what so many of today's bettors do as far as capping goes, that unfortunately too many just have not been shown the most efficient ways to prognosticate a sporting event. And I have also come to realize that there just isn't hardly any instructional information out there for bettors to improve. I mean, I see books on handicapping and systems to use...but none that I have seen really help to lay a foundation to help someone go in the right direction. And what happens is that we are in the information era, where so much is available at our fingertips...but unless you are explained what is useful and what isn't...and more importantly how to use it to help determine the outcome of a sporting event based on creating a stronger line than is being offered, and an accurate probability estimation to determine if value exists...

Well, to be perfectly honest...that is the easy part. And to be blunt, I can easily show many of the things that I was taught to get guys started in the right direction if they are actually interested. Because even though as I stated, through the years I have had to keep up and improve my strategies...the fundimentals remain the same, over 15yrs later...And I'm not saying that I would just "give away the store"...but there are basic methods to creating a line and things like that which can easily be taught...But that is barely half the battle, because all the ammunition in the world won't help you win a war if you don't have the army to attack with...and when it comes to being a successful pro sports bettor...your army is your bankroll...

I use the words professional sports bettor and not professional handicapper because they are entirely 2 different things...for example, I know countless handicappers, but very few pro bettors. Because to be a pro-bettor, you really don't even need to be a handicapper...In fact, while working in the offices that we moved STEAM in...out of 20 of us there on an average day, maybe 4 were handicappers. So, what I am getting to is that anyone can become a professional sports bettor as long as they are able to locate winning information. And winning info, for the sake of argument when dealing with a point-spread sport...is info that WINS 54% + of the time...In short, I know so many excellent cappers who are capable of winning even Over 56-57% in a year's time, but still aren't considered professional sports bettors because that is the area where you need "capital"...but more importantly...you need proper "Money Management"...and let me tell you, it's that area of this game which is by far the biggest problem for most...

Now, over the next few months, if some are interested..I can pass along a few methods of money-management...but truth is...everything you need is already in you. You know what is right and you know what isn't...You know that applying proper money management will allow you to possibly make sports betting an excellent investment, and yet using it becomes another story all together. Well, I want to tell you that no matter how strong your info is, and no matter how proficient you may get at handicapping...without proper money management, you are wasting your time. Because in the end, those same mistakes that allowed the books to be ahead on you...will continue to give them that same power over you...

The biggest problem that I see is that too many bettors just aren't realistic when it comes to sports betting. Because the books and casino's want us to look at it as a form of gambling, too many times, sharp people allow all reason to fly out the window. I see it with bettors who use a particular capper and as soon as he has a bad week or month, they are looking for someone hotter...The problem with that is that because someone is hotter at the time, doesn't mean they are a winning capper. So if they aren't a long time winning capper, eventually we know what will happen to your roll for following. The key, just like with a good investment fund is to find information that you know is a capable of turning a profit long-term...because if you can do that, then the only one who can stop you from making money is yourself...

What sports bettors usually lack is realism...meaning they just aren't realistic with their goals. They work hard and are great people..and they do what it takes to put together a nice bankroll to begin investing in sports...but then all of a sudden, they lose sight that it is an investment and not a gamble. Too many times, a bettor will save a $5k bankroll to begin the football season. But for some strange reason, the thought of having $6k in January just isn't very appealing...even though that exact same person would be doing backflips over their broker for turning them on to a stock which returned 20% in an ENTIRE YEAR...but do that in 4 months of football and it don't seem like anything special...

I have never been able to comprehend that type of thinking...maybe it's because I was raised very modestly and valued profit...or maybe after being surrounded by nothing but successful and sharp pro sports bettors for so long, much of their reasoning rubbed off on me. Either way, it isn't what is important...Instead what is...is that I decided a long time ago that I have the resources and knowledge, as well as the experience to make an excellent living doing the one thing I love most. And that I can do that without needing to win every day, every week, or even every month. Just the opposite, I have been able to organize my business like any other successful profit making, big corporation to endure a reccession (losing streak) or even a depression (losing year)...and still know that I will be there, working just like before the very next year...

Now, I didn't take my time to write this long post as a way to show that I am a winning sports bettor. Not to be cocky, but I have already established that through the years. But what I did write this for is to let so many of you good, hard working, and ambitious men here in this forum know...that I am no smarter than you. In fact, I'm almost positive that the majority of you have a much further scholastic education than I do. So there is no reason that you should ever not be able to beat this market over time with all the resources available...there is no reason that once you put together your bankroll, that you can't forever build your business to lengths never before imagined....and there is no reason that you should ever have to sweat any sporting results. Because you have the power to do all of that. In fact it takes very little except for having the "will" to do what so few actually do. I know just by being in this forum for 7 months that so many of you guys are sharp enough to do what I am writing about...but only you can make that choice of the way you want your sports betting to go and in turn, your lifestyle.

Finally, as I stated above...I am willing to try and teach many of you those same fundamentals about handicapping that I was...so that you can then take them and tweak them over the years and become a more efficient handicapper. I am willing to pass along some money management tips that you may also use. And, I know that even if you don't have the time to do all of the work that it takes to actually be a winning handicapper, that with all the resources available to you just at Pregame alone...that you can still turn a profit watching and wagering on something you obviously love also...Sports...But what I can't do, is take your money and do the right things with it for you. That is up to you. The best way to do this is to answer honestly, why you bet on sports ??? And that answer should be enough to show you exactly what to do next. I will end this by passing along the #1 Rule to Money Management...and that is, have realistic goals...and never stray from the ez path of achieving them...and I mean NEVER, not even for that one game that you know is a winner because once you allow yourself to do the wrong thing, then getting back to doing the right thing becomes so much tougher...

I want to wish you all the best of luck and let you know that I am here and willing to share with you a lot of what I know...with the hope that you will apply it and improve your life because as I said before...I have met so many here that really deserve it. Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner..

Coldplay rocks MGM Grand Garden Arena in Vegas on Saturday night

Matty O'Shea — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:25:00 GMT

Yes, my wife and I went to see Coldplay at the MGM Grand here in Las Vegas on Saturday night, and it was quite an experience to say the least. I must admit I am not the biggest Coldplay fan in the world, but I do like their music and had heard they put on a great live show. They did not disappoint even though some other aspects of the show certainly did.

Lead singer Chris Martin had an amazing stage presence, as it was very hard to watch him without smiling while he danced around like a court jester and sang. They opened with Life in Technicolor from their latest album Viva La Vida and played a 21-song set in all, even venturing out into the crowd for a couple tunes which I had never seen before. The entire band literally walked into the audience with a spotlight following them until they reached the back of the arena, where they set up in one of the open corridors. Cool stuff.

What was not cool was the opening act, which honestly was one of the worst bands I have ever heard. Coldplay apparently held a contest around the country for local bands in each city to open for them, and they must have taken the worst from Vegas because our ears were bleeding from the noise. They were so bad I can't even remember their name and have searched the web to find out so I could warn you but have not yet been successful.

Electronica DJ Jon Hopkins had kicked off the entertainment, and he was very good. Unfortunately, I got stuck sitting next to a 300-pound chick on the other side of me from my wife who did not think he was very good and had to let everyone in our section know it. It also was ironic that a guy behind us had his seat break, and he ended up scoring better seats in the lower section. The fat chick then complained and said, "I wish my seat would break" which scared the shit out of me. That would have been my last concert

Rider's Early Big 10 Breakdown

Tommy Rider — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:11:00 GMT

Everyone in the Big 10 will once again be chasing Beanie Wells and OSU for the conference title.

After breaking down the SEC and Big 12, I now take a look at a conference that will be dominated by one team: The Big 10. Ohio State is clearly the cream of the crop in the Big 10 and a National Title contender once again. Here is my early breakdown of the Big 10, with power rankings in parentheses:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (85) - Not surprisingly, the Buckeyes are my top rated team in the country heading into the season. I'm not saying they can beat an SEC team in the title game but on paper, they're loaded. Led by six players who could be selected in the first round of next year's NFL Draft, Ohio State scored an eight or higher in all but two categories. The offensive line and defense are among the best in CFB, while RB Beanie Wells is a strong Heisman candidate. And then there is freshman phenom, QB Terrelle Pryor, who will help make the Buckeyes offense less predictable than in years past. The schedule sets up nicely and if Ohio State gets by USC early in the year, they could run the table.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (78) - Penn State isn't in the Buckeyes' class but this is a team I really like. First of all, they got rid of Anthony Morelli, who was one of the worst CFB quarterbacks of my lifetime. The Lions may be less experienced under center this year but they are going back to more of the spread offense they ran when Michael Robinson was in school. Besides quarterback, the rest of the team is strong. Penn State has an experienced offensive line, a deep stable of running backs and explosive receivers. The Lions three defensive positions earned a 23 out of a possible 30 and Penn State has great special teams. A tough schedule and question marks at quarterback are the Lions two biggest obstacles entering the season.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (74) - I think this year's Wisconsin team will be good but not great. However, I never underestimate the Badgers with Bret Bielema roaming the sidelines. In just two years at Wisky, Bielema has proven to be one of CFB's best coaches. As expected, the Wisconsin offense graded out high at running back and offensive line but low at quarterback. Their defense is also strong once again but special teams - usually a strength at Wisconsin - is unsettled this season. The schedule features a visit to Fresno State - a place no major conference team likes to play. Overall, this is a solid team that's pretty much a shoe-in for eight wins.

4. Michigan State Spartans (74) - I really like the direction Head Coach Mark Dantonio has the Spartans program headed. I gave them the same power ranking score as Wisconsin and I expect Michigan State to be even better in Dantonio's second season, despite replacing some key contributors from 2007. The Spartans ranked high at quarterback and running back thanks to the return of Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer. Ringer is one of the top backs in the country and a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate. Michigan State has to replace big-time players at receiver and defensive end, while the secondary needs to show drastic improvement from a year ago. Overall, this is a team on the rise and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish second in the conference if a couple of things break their way.

5. Illinois Fighting Illini (72) - After making the Rose Bowl last season, the Illini will likely take a minor step back in 2008. They are still a good team but the loss of RB Rashard Mendenhall early to the NFL Draft was a killer. I thought Mendenhall was one of the most important players in CFB last season and he'll be tough to replace. The Illini was fairly consistent in my scoring system, getting an eight in six of 10 categories. However, a tough schedule and major concerns at running back and on special teams hurt Illinois overall score. Also, I personally believe that backup quarterback Eddie McGee is better than Juice Williams, who I don't think will ever develop into a great passer.

6. Michigan Wolverines (71) - This was the toughest team for me to grade because they are making such a drastic switch in philosophy on the offensive side of the ball. The first thing that I want to mention about Michigan is they still have plenty of talent. I see some people talking about this team like they are Rice. While the offense is going to take some time adjusting to Rich Rodriguez's scheme, the defense is absolutely loaded. The Wolverines scored an eight in all three of my defensive categories and I expect them to have one of the best stop units in the Big 10 this season. Remember, the public is going to be fading Michigan big-time this year but in my opinion, they are going to be better than people think. My advice? Stay away from betting Michigan games early on in the season.

7. Purdue Boilermakers (65) - As you can see, there is a pretty big drop-off between Michigan Purdue, which means that's where I think we go from good teams to ones with a lot more question marks. Actually, the Boilermakers are the definition of average in my book. They graded out at a six in five of ten categories. QB Curtis Painter is a good one and he'll need to help Purdue outscore opponents because the Boilermakers defense is weak. Purdue is also deep at running back but none of that is going to matter if the offensive line doesn't get healthy in a hurry. This is a team that could win eight games and push for a New Year's Day bowl or win three games and fight with Minnesota for the Big 10 cellar. There are a lot of "ifs" when it comes to Purdue heading into 2008.

8. Iowa Hawkeyes (64) - I think either Purdue or Iowa will end up being better than my power ranking numbers suggest and if I had to pick one of those teams, I would go with the Hawkeyes. Why? Defense. Iowa should have a stout front seven led by one of the conference's top defensive lines. Mitch King and Matt Kroul are one of the top tackle tandems in CFB and will make the Hawkeyes extremely tough to run the football on. The offensive line looks solid but Iowa needs to find some more playmakers on offense. The defense will keep the Hawkeyes in games and if the offense can just be average, Iowa has a shot to make a minor bowl this season.

9. Northwestern Wildcats (62) - I like this Northwestern team but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves by making them a 12-point favorite in Week 1 against Syracuse. The Wildcats are an improving team but they still aren't good enough to be 12-point favorites over anyone. Northwestern should be a strong "over" team this season. They have a solid offense led by stud running back Tyrell Sutton and improving quarterback C.J. Bacher. The problem for Northwestern is its defense. The Wildcats defense scored a 17 out of a possible 30 in my rankings and they also field a terrible special teams unit. A lot of people like Northwestern to make a bowl game this year and while that's certainly possible, they'll need to score a lot of points to compensate for a weak defense if they want to go bowling.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (59) - Indiana got some good news when quarterback Kellen Lewis was cleared to play but he's going to have to win a lot of games on his own this season. The Hoosiers are average at receiver and weak at running back. The line is experienced but it underachieved last year. The defense isn't much better and overall, Indiana scored a six or lower in seven of my categories. Besides Lewis, Indiana has one of the nation's best special team units with placekicker Austin Starr and return man Marcus Thigpen. Unfortunately, there isn't much more to like about this team in 2008.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (50) - This was another team that was tough to rank because they are going to have so many new faces on the field in 2008. The Gophers return a lot of starters but after going just 1-11 last season, many of those players will become backups. The Gophers fielded one of the worst defenses in CFB history last season. This year, as many as seven freshmen and JC transfers could be starting on defense when the season kicks off. The offense was solid last year and should be even better this season now that quarterback Adam Weber has a year in Tim Brewster's spread offense. The offense will score some points but the defense has to improve significantly just to be average. And with so many new starters on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota is one of my "stay away" teams early in the year.

BOOKS GETTING BURIED by FAVS SINCE the BREAK

vegas-runner — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 21:07:00 GMT

I believe that I have corrected the problem on my end and I can get back to Blogging...there is just so much that I want to pass along to you guys that I don't know where to begin. And although I have used my Blog in the past to mostly try and pass along some knowledge and experiences to help you beat this market, today I want to touch on a topic that a book brought to my attention early this morning over the phone...

If you get a moment, take a look at the results in MLB since the teams resumed play after the All-Star Break...make sure you look closely because you just may miss something...and that something is a DOG. We are now heading into our 3rd day since the break and I am having trouble finding a DOG that won the game...Now I know that some of you will say that the REDS won last night as a Dog, but they were +105 and to me, I really don't consider that a DOG. I mean, anything less than +120 is the equivalent of taking a football team getting 1.5 on the ML in most cases...and although technically it is still a dog...I am talking about at least picking a 3pt DOG to win on the ML...lol

Even funnier is the fact that some of those DOGS that won, actually became the FAVS before game-time (PHILS) last night...And like the books I spoke to said...the "clear cut" Favorites ALL WON...and what he is refering to is any FAV -130 or higher because as I remember it when I was a runner...anything less and we didn't really call it a Dog...it was more or less a pick'em...especially since the majority of shops were not using a "dime line" at the time...

Will this trend continue...I am not sure, but I will tell you that a lot of bettors who would look forward to the MLB Season thinking they can make a profit without even hitting 50% are having a tough time staying above water. In fact, truth be told, most are getting killed and although they continue to use what has worked in the past....as a few sharps I spoke with said, those type of bettors are now in a position where they have to hit at a much higher % on their DOG plays than ever before, to try and get even before the season ends...

This takes me back to something I discussed at the very start of the season. Value is Value only when it Wins...and as a professional sports bettor, the main objective needs to be Profit and not neccessarily the road taken to get there. I said from the 1st Day of MLB that I have seen just as much Value in a -200 that I have in a +150 because Value is determined by the price being offered, compared to the actual worth...and a losing Bet isn't worth very much...I have been fortunate to have been in this game as it has evolved numerous times. From when sharps had info before the oddsmakers as well as better technology, to when the off-shore market changed the way books do business, to now, what I like to call the info era...a time when info is so available that the problem becomes...bettors just aren't experienced in knowing just what info actually helps determine an outcome...

Regardless...to be able to beat this market consistantly...we as handicappers have to be willing to accept how the market is changing and even though we need to stick to our guns and use those things that have proven to show a profit over time...we also always have to be aware of the present. I am really interested to see the results when the weekend has concluded and these series have come to an end...because so far, from what I see...the 2nd half seems to be starting off exactly the way the 1st half did...

Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...Please let me know in my Forum Thread or Here about any topics you may want to see addressed.

Free PREMIUM Pick from RED HOT Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson! 65% last 32 days! 82% last 2 weeks!

Rocky Atkinson — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:19:00 GMT

San Diego @ St Louis 3:55 PM EST
Play On: 3* St Louis -140 (Wolf/Wellmeyer) Listed

No analysis today due to travel! This is another members play.

NOTE: Rocky has three more 3* MLB Winners for Saturday. 65% the past 32 days in MLB!

Andre Gomes MLB Plays

andre gomes — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:00:00 GMT

CHICAGO CUBS at HOUSTON ASTROS

Yesterday the Cubs wasted all the good work of Ted Lilly by losing 2-1 at Houston, where the batters Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez were terrible with 0-12! The team have already gave signs of not being at 100% in their last game before the All Star break, when they lost against the Giants by 2-4 and yesterday they have confirmed this tendency. However today they will send to the pitch their ace Carlos Zambrano (2.84 ERA 10-3) who has been very solid during the whole season, especially in his last matches. Zambrano on the road hasn't been as solid as at home with 3.61 ERA and a record of 5-3, but he has been amazing in his last games. Against the Cardinals, he hasn't allowed any run in the 5 innings in which he pitched with 5 strike outs and against Cincinnati, he has only allowed 1 run in 8 innings and with also 5 strike outs. Besides that in the All Star game, Zambrano has only allowed 1 hit in the 2 innings he has pitched. His good form is evident:

"That's probably the best I've seen him in a long time," said Dunn of Zambrano, who has allowed a run and five hits over 14 innings in his last two starts.

So I expect Chicago to continue with good pitching performances today, as the quality today will be there. My doubts are with the pitcher that Houston will use today. Wandy Rodriguez is actually having a reasonable season with 3.48 ERA 4-3 and his numbers are good at home games, with 2.72 ERA and 2-2, but recently his form has been poor. Actually in his last three games he has a record of 6.90 ERA and curiously 1-0, however that is easy to explain, it's only necessary to see the teams they have faced: Washington, Atlanta and LA Dodgers. The first one isn't necessary to talk about its quality (or lack of), but against Atlanta and the Dodgers, these two teams were in bad phases and still he couldn't stop their attack. Zambrano has played against the Astros this season and he had a good performance with 2 runs in 7 innings, with a win by 3-2 against Houston, while Rodriguez hasn't played against the Cubs this season. The fact that the Cubs are currently on a mini slump and that made the moneyline for them to be at a reasonable price today. Sooner or later the Cubs will appear again in a good fashion and I don't think Rodriguez will be capable to continue the poor form of the Cubs batters today. Take the Cubs in here.

PLAY: 1* UNIT ML CHICAGO CUBS

KANSAS CITY ROYALS at CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The team of the White Sox began in the best way this divisional series against Kansas, defeating them by 9-5. Today the series continues and in my opinion, the Royals will struggle again today, as the White Sox will send a pitcher, who has been very solid at home this season. Gavin Floyd is 10-5 and 3.63 ERA, but at home he becomes a much better pitcher, as his numbers come to 7-1 and an ERA of just 2.57 ERA. Actually his team record with him is 9-1. Floyd was terrible in his last match against Texas (on the road), as in just 3 innings, he allowed 2 home runs, 6 hits and 5 runs, which even against the best offensive team in the league is a poor performance, which he has already admitted. The best that could happen to him has happened, as he has now an home game to bounce back.

Curiously the Royals have been struggling on the road against right hander pitchers, as their record is just 13-22 with 3.6 runs per game and if when the games are at night, the numbers go to 5-13. This doesn't say anything necessarily, but when he see the White Sox winning 6 of the 7 games this season against them, the difficulties Kansas will have today are evident. The Royals will use Gil Meche as their starting pitcher (4.64 ERA 6-9) and he hasn't been playing well recently. Meche in his last 3 games had an ERA of 5.00 and went 0-1. He has faced the White Sox this season and his team lost by 6-2. This team of the White Sox played well yesterday and his offense showed to be in a good moment and this season when that happens, the team reacts well in the following game. They are 11-1 against the money line in home games after scoring 8 runs or more e 14-3 against the money line in home games after a win by 4 runs or more this season. That's why I love them today. Take the White Sox RL in here.

PLAY 1* UNIT ON RL CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Good Luck

San Francisco 49ers: Over or Under?

Ben Burns — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:17:00 GMT

Last season, the 49ers were expected to be a team on the rise. They had gone just 7-9 SU (9-7 ATS) in 2006 but had shown considerable improvement down the stretch. Most considered Mike Nolan to be a bright coach with a promising coach. Alex Smith was an up and coming quarterback, who had some new and improved receivers at his disposal. Frank Gore ranked among the best running backs in the league. The 49ers even had the benefit of two selections in the first round. Additionally, the defense had shelled out big bucks in the offseason to sign an elite cornerback, Nate Clements. Naturally, there was plenty of optimism in the Bay area. Oddsmakers originally projected the 49ers to win seven games. However, bettors quickly bet that line all the way up to 8 -115.

As you probably remember, things didn't go as planned. Not only did San Francisco fail to improve, the team actually went backwards. Despite a respectable 3-3 divisional record, the 49ers finished the season with a dismal 5-11 (5-10-1 ATS) mark. Naturally, off that type of disappointing season, expectations are significant lower for the 49ers this year. Oddsmakers are currently projecting the 49ers to win just 6.5 games. In fact, some shops still have their projected number of regular season wins at just six, although one has to lay some extra juice if choosing that option. If one doesn't mind tying up some money for several months, I believe this gives us excellent value with the "Over."

The 49ers biggest problem last season was that the offense couldn't score points. Quarterback Alex Smith struggled, as did the receiving corps. Smith would eventually get hurt, separating his shoulder in Week 4. He also argued with coach Mike Nolan. When Smith went down, Trent Dilfer, who has since retired, was terrible in relief. Frank Gore still finished with more than 1000 rushing yards (1102) while adding more than 436 receiving yards and leading the team with receptions. There are several reasons to believe that the offense will be much improved this season though.

For starters, Gore is back. He's proven to be one of the best backs in the league and should put up big numbers once again. Additionally, Smith is reportedly healthy and has "made peace" with Nolan. He'll be challenged by Shaun Hill, who was solid when given a shot at the starter's job after Dilfer got hurt. Whether it's Smith, Hill or newly acquired J.T. O'Sullivan running the show, there will be some new receiving weapons available. Isaac Bruce, a longtime "49er killer," was signed via free agency. While he's now 35 years old, Bruce still had greater than 50 receptions last season, while leading the Rams with an average of 13.3 yards per catch. The 49ers also acquired former Cardinal Bryant Johnson, also via free agency. Johnson, who was stuck behind Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona, has talent and should be thrilled at a chance for a bigger role. They'll join Arnaz Battle, who has been the team's most consistent receiver the past two seasons, and tight-end Vernon Davis, who had 52 receptions last season. Veteran Ashley Lelie and youngsters Jason Hill and Josh Morgan will all compete for a job and provide depth to this much improved unit. The offensive line appears to be relatively solid.

Perhaps more important that the new acquisitions on the field, was the signing of "offensive guru" Mike Martz. As you'll probably remember, Martz was considered a "genius" when coaching in St. Louis, and directing the Rams explosive attack. While he eventually wore out his welcome in St. Louis, Martz also helped improve what had previously been a rather anemic Detroit attack. Whether or not one likes Martz, it's hard to imagine that the 49ers won't be significantly better offensively this season.

There's also reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball. With Clements signed to a long-term contract, the secondary remains in relatively good shape. The defensive line lost longtime star Bryant Young to retirement, as well as Marques Douglas to free agency. However, they shelled out big bucks to sign free-agent defensive end Justin Smith while acquiring Kentwan Balmer in the first round of the draft. The linebacking corps appears to be a strength. That's largely due to the stellar play of last year's Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Willis.

The 49ers are also in good shape in the special teams department. Andy Lee is an excellent punter while Joe Nedney is generally an extremely reliable kicker. Long snapper Brian Jennings is also considered to be one of the best at his position. They also signed Allen Rossum to bolster the return game. San Francisco fans will likely remember Rossum, a former Steelar, as he returned a kickoff for a touchdown against them last season.

The non-divisional schedule appears fairly manageable. While the 49ers do have several tough matchups (Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) they also face a few non-divisional opponents which ranked near the bottom of the league last season. The Jets, Bills and Dolphins all finished below .500 and had a combined record of just 12-36. The Redskins were relatively mediocre last season and are projected to finish below .500 last season. Meanwhile both the Saints and Lions finished below .500 last season. Of course, the NFC West has been one of the league's weaker divisions for quite some time now. As previously mentioned, even with all last year's problems, the 49ers still managed a 3-3 divisional record last year.

All things considered, I feel that the 49ers will be an improved team this season. If you can still find their projected number of regular season wins at six, consider a play on the 'over.'

With a commanding lead over the competition (field of 150!) Ben Burns is recognized as the #1 NFL handicapper in the entire history of one of the Internet's longest running and most respected sports monitors...

Baseball Parks and Totals

Ben Burns — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:11:00 GMT

One important aspect of betting 'totals' in baseball is knowing the various ball parks/stadiums. Certainly starting pitchers, offensive and defensive stats come into play when oddsmakers are making totals on games. The wind direction, too, is a factor and you may have noticed that some Cubs games in Wrigley Field arent posted until the day of the game. Its not called the Windy City for nothing, and bookies dont want to get caught posting an overnight total of 7 for a Wrigley Field game with Carlos Zambrano pitching, then finding out the next morning that the wind is blowing out 20 miles an hour to center.

The configuration of each park is also important to look at, especially with so many parks having been built over the last decade. San Diegos relatively new Petco Park is a pitchers paradise. The correlation is striking in two areas: San Diego is the worst offensive team in baseball, plus they started 23-14 under the total at home. Thats a solid winning percentage just wagering blindly on the under. Not that I would recommend ever blindly wagering on anything

You may recall a few years ago when San Diego slugger Ryan Klesko became frustrated, as he couldnt hit home runs at home anymore because the Padres new park was so big. In short, its a great 'pitchers park' and a very difficult home run park. Two years the Padres were 40-35 under the total at home averaging 3.7 runs. When they went on the road, however, the offense averaged 5.1 runs. Not surprisingly, during the past few seasons, theyve been a solid 'under the total team' at home.

Shea Stadium in New York, the home of the Mets, is another pitcher-friendly park, along with Dodger stadium, (although not quite as much as it once was) Oakland and Washington. Notice that this season the Nationals average 3.4 runs at home, but 3.8 runs on the road. Certainly the park plays a key role in this disparity, leading to a 28-21-1 start under the total at home. In their most recent game here, the Nationals failed to score a single run. Conversely, in their most recent road game, they put up a '5-spot.'

Due to playing in a pitcher friendly park, its essential that the Dodgers have some kind of speed in the lineup, particularly atop the order. Thats why the loss of Rafael Furcal in the first half of the season was such a huge blow. Hes an outstanding leadoff hitter atop the order, one who can get on base and jumpstart an offense by helping to manufacture runs. The Dodgers were 18-14 in games started by Furcal, and then went 12-24 in games after he got hurt.

Parks don't always remain the same either. A few years back, Dodger Stadium underwent some renovations which saw new seats added into areas which had previously been on the field and part of 'foul ball terrritory.' This did have an effect but not quite as much as some may have expected. At the time Dodger catcher David Ross was quoted as saying that he expected the effect to be relatively minimal. "It may be five or six balls in foul ground," he said. Ross continued by saying: "I dont think theres that many outs made in that area. The pitchers park is more because of the heavy air at night in L.A. During the day, a ball flies. At night, it doesnt come close to going out."

How about Coors Field? Several years ago, it was common to see over/under lines of 13, 14 or 15 in games played in the high altitude of Colorado. Those numbers have gradually come down though and today we now routinely see over/under numbers of 9, 9.5 or 10. Despite the lines being adjusted, 24 of 45 games (excluding one push) managed to stay below the total there.

Other offensive parks, besides Coors, include Philadelphia, Boston, Cincinnati, Texas, Houston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Toronto. Indoor parks like the Metrodome can be tough on pitchers. Not only does the artificial turf cause the ball to scoot faster making it tougher on infielders, but the lack of wind can make indoor places easier home run parks. We may have to include Arizona into this mix, another indoor facility. This season the Diamondbacks are averaging roughly four runs per game on the road, but more than five per game at home. They're hitting a healthy .277 at home but a dismal .220 on the road.

The Oakland As visited last month in an Interleague game and scored 15 runs, most off of ace Brandon Webb. The next night Arizona returned the favor by scoring 11 runs. The previous two days the weak hitting Royals came to Arizona and scored 12 and 8 runs in consecutive games. Anyway, the point is that to be a successful 'total' handicapper, one needs to know the parks and their various dimensions.

What are you reading to get ready to make football picks this season?

Matty O'Shea — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:49:00 GMT

As I mentioned on Thursday, Tommy Rider and I visited the world-famous Gamblers Book Shop here in Las Vegas on Wednesday to help get us ready to make football picks this season. I personally picked up Phil Steele's ACC & Big East Football Preview because those are the two conferences I specialize in and will be making college football picks in this coming season.

For those of you who don't know him, Phil Steele is the best content provider for football betting information anywhere on the planet. I would highly recommend reading anything he puts out, especially his weekly newsletter during the season. Nobody does it better than him.

I also purchased the Underdog Theorem by Eddie Getz to help me with my NFL picks and will revisit this blog to provide my thoughts on this book when I find the time to give it a good read. Following is a brief summary...

"Written for the sports gambler and non-sports gambler alike, this book presents specific, straightforward steps that can be used to predict events of every NFL season, explains how easy it is to repeat these steps year after year, and provides proof of the strategy's success by listing every pick of the past 15 seasons. Other gambling books tell you about a strategy knowing that the roll of the dice or the deal of the cards can never be repeated, which frees the authors from ever being proved wrong (or right). The author cites Miami's undefeated season of 1972 as the inspiration for his handicapping strategy."

Keep in mind you can also visit the Gamblers Book Shop simply by clicking here. If you are planning a trip to Vegas before or during football season, it is definitely a must-visit destination. I have never seen so many books on gambling, Vegas and the mob all in one place in my life and could have stayed there for hours if Tommy wasnt in such a rush to see the Golden Nugget

So what are you reading to get you ready to make football picks this season?

Free MLB PREMIUM Pick from Pregame Pro Rocky Atkinson! 65% last 31 days! 7-1 last week!

Rocky Atkinson — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:54:00 GMT

Texas @ Minnesota 8:10 PM EST
Play On: 3* Minnesota -125 (Millwood/Perkins) Listed

Minnesota is 38-26 at night this year. Minnesota is 11-4 when playing on Friday this year. Texas is scoring only 4.6 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Minnesota bullpen has a SUPER 1.99 ERA at home this year. Perkins is 6-2 overall this year and 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA his last 3 starts. Millwood is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. Perkins is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA overall vs Texas since 1997. We'll play Minnesota for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has hit 65% the past 31 days in MLB. 7-1 overall last week! Rocky has three 3* MLB plays for Friday. Get em now!

NOTE: 2nd half MLB package is ready now! You'll get every MLB play released through the World Series. Also, our Football packages are loaded! 60% the past 2 years combined in the NFL and I have won 11 of 12 years in College Football in my history! Sign up today!

Andre Gomes MLB Play

andre gomes — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:52:00 GMT

I like a play for tonight:

TORONTO at TAMPA BAY

If there are teams who may have been helped by the All Star break, certainly one of these teams was Tampa Bay. The Rays even leaded their division and they were one of the strongest teams in the league a couple of weeks ago, but they lost all their last seven games before the All Star break, so this stop was great for the team. Today they will face Toronto, which has been well lately, but they have been playing at home in their last games. Today they will send to the pitch the right hander Burnett, who is 4.96 ERA and 10-8 this season. It's curious to see that this will be the second game in a row for him, as he played in the last game of the team before the All Star break against the Yankees. Burnett has an away record of 4.34 ERA and 3-5 and recently he hasn't been fortunate against the Rays, as even though he is 6-3 against Tampa Bay, his last three games against the Rays were losses for his team.

Fortunately for Tampa Bay they play at home, where they have been very strong. The team is 36-14 at home, but when the games against right pitchers, these numbers are even better: 28-9 with 4.9 runs per game and when these games are at night, the numbers go to 22-6! Today the Rays will send the pitch the also right hander Shields (3.86 ERA 7-6), who was also a victim of a slump that hit the whole team, as in his last game at Cleveland, he allowed 10 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings. Today a normal bounce back by him is expected, as he has been very well at home with a record of 5-1 with 2.13 ERA. Curiously in his career he is 3-0 2.70 ERA against Toronto. The team of Tampa Bay has been dominating Toronto this season, having won 5 of the 6 games played between the two teams. The team is 23-6 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season and 14-2 against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less this season. I expect a comfortable win of Tampa Bay today to get away of the slump they suffered before the All Star break. Take Tampa Bay RL in here.

Pick: 1* Unit on RL -1.5 TAMPA BAY

Good Luck

So what are you listening to on you iPod?

Johnny Detroit — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 15:32:00 GMT

Friday is usually my boring day at Pregame. I have to make sure all my projects are caught up and in progress so I can pick up where I left off on Monday (or over the weekend if needed). To help get past the boredom of checking SEO stats or making sure all of my emails are cleared, I have my iTunes running on the iMac shuffling a mixture of tunes.

As of this moment at 11:40am on Friday, the next 10 songs to be played are:

Me and Bobby McGee Janis Joplin
Midnight Rider The Allman Brothers Band
Mississippi Queen Mountain
Night Fever Bee Gees
Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band The Beatles
Strictly Business EPMD
Ace of Spades Motor Head
Look on Down from the Bridge Mazzy Star
The Watcher Dr. Dre
Werewolves of London Warren Zevon

So look down and let everyone know what you are listening to as we close to the 1/2 way mark on Friday.

Rider Ends Vegas Trip with Early CFB Bomb!

Tommy Rider — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:09:00 GMT

Tommy Rider left Vegas with $500 big ones on THE Ohio State to take out Wisconsin on Oct. 4.

My trip to Vegas is drawing to a close and I had a great time. I want to thank everyone at Pregame for showing me around and helping me out. I have to tell you something and this isn't a sales pitch: These are some of the nicest guys you will ever meet in the handicapping business. Matty and Marco are both just genuinely nice people and they have done everything in their power to help me out and make me feel at home. And then there is Vegas Runner. If there is a more entertaining human being on this planet, I haven't met them. Hopefully next year we can get a Pregame Convention together so more people can come out and meet these guys. It's one thing to talk to them on the forums but sitting down and listening to their stories in person is worth the price of admission. Also, be prepared to eat.

So on Wednesday Matty and I hit the Hilton and a couple of things came from that visit. First, I now know where I want to be buried. That sportsbook is amazing. Just a huge room filled with TV's and every line you can imagine. The second thing that happened is I placed my first big bet of the upcoming football season. Unfortunately for the Hilton, one of their lines on the early CFB Games of the Year was way off, so I risked divorce and jumped all over it. I had to put $500 on the game because it was a great opportunity to catch a soft line in my opinion.

Ohio State 4 over Wisconsin (October 4)
One of the things I'm going to do this year is pound the Buckeyes on the road in conference games. At the Horseshoe, the spreads are going to be huge but when the Buckeyes go on the road, you will be able to take advantage of those 10-point lines against inferior competition.

Now this line being four is a joke. Wisconsin will be good this year but they aren't in Ohio State's class. I'm sure the Buckeyes will get a battle from one Big 10 team this season but I don't expect it to be a highly touted battle in Madison where the Bucks are guaranteed to be focused. And if you are worried about OSU playing the Badgers in Madison, don't be. They are vastly superior to Wisconsin this year and the Buckeyes are one of the few schools to have success in Madison, winning three of the last four meetings there.

Plus, what do you think this line is going to be if Ohio State either beats USC or suffers a close loss to the Trojans? It isn't going to be four, I can tell you that much. I think if everything plays out close to how it should for these two teams early in the year, the Buckeyes will be a 7-10 point favorite on the road against Wisky. Especially if OSU handles the Trojans.

There is just too much value in this line to pass up. If the books want to make the Buckeyes only a four-point favorite over ANY Big 10 team, I will jump all over it. They can play the game on the moon for all I care. Ohio State is so much better than the rest of the conference that I'll pay out $550 if any of those teams can stay within a field goal of the Bucks. If you are coming out to Vegas, I strongly suggest going to the Hilton and getting down on THE Ohio State over Wisconsin, as long as the line is under a touchdown. See you all at the payout window!

Matty's Second-Half Picks for the 2008 MLB Playoffs and World Series

Matty O'Shea — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:58:00 GMT

Tommy Rider and I spent our Wednesday off-day for sports shopping around town for some early college football lines at the Golden Nugget and the Las Vegas Hilton and earlier got a chance to visit the Gamblers Book Shop, which I will be discussing more in detail on Friday.

I also took a hard look at MLB futures in anticipation of the second half of the season and tried to parlay the New York Mets to win the NL East (-120 at BetUS) with the Boston Red Sox to win the AL East (-190) at the Nugget but was declined. Believe it or not, the Nugget had plus-money on both teams to win their respective division as of Sunday. Tommy made a wager on the Colorado Rockies to win the NL West at 12/1, and that is something I definitely believe to be possible considering the team's offensive talent and lack thereof with the others in the division.

The way I see it, there are four main contenders to win the National League pennant in the hot Mets (currently riding a nine-game winning streak), the Philadelphia Phillies (+110 to win the NL East), the Milwaukee Brewers (3/1 to win the NL Central) and Chicago Cubs (-300). The Phillies are the weakest of that group despite leading the NL East right now due to weak starting pitching outside of young ace Cole Hamels and very streaky hitting.

In the AL, I am not counting out the Detroit Tigers (4/1) in the AL Central and think they will battle it out with the Chicago White Sox (-165) down the stretch. The Angels (-1000) should have no problem winning the AL West but I still think the Red Sox are the class of the league and will end up getting past them to defend their World Series title. The wild card here (no pun intended) is the Tampa Bay Rays (+150 to win the division), who ended the first half on a seven-game losing streak.

The Rays have one of the best young pitchers in baseball waiting to be called up in time for the stretch run in 2007 #1 overall pick David Price (4-0 with a 1.38 ERA currently with the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits), who would only strengthen what is already arguably the best rotation in the majors. I honestly believe the Rays will end up making the playoffs for the first time ever and will face their AL East rivals in the ALCS.

My MLB picks for the World Series? I am sticking with the Cubs (4/1 to win the World Series) and Red Sox (+350 favorites), who I think will end up prolonging the 100-year drought another season by beating the loveable losers in seven games. But if injuries do end up becoming a factor for the North Siders in the second half, then I would not be surprised at all to see the Brew Crew (14/1) or Mets (12/1) visiting Fenway in October. Those two teams represent the best value plays to win the World Series in my opinion. Otherwise, there will be a distinct possibility of hell freezing over

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RJ in Rare form at the MGM!

Marco D'Angelo — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:48:00 GMT

If you live anywhere other than Vegas there wasn't much to do on the Wednesday after the All Star Game. But this is Vegas Baby! So RJ and I head done to the strip after Work. The plan was to play poker for about 3 hours then a Dinner Meeting with a friend that was in town. RJ and I end up on the same table.

We have played about 90 minutes nothing eventful for either one of us until the hand that unleashed the RJ comedy show. This guy makes it $25 preflop and it folds around to RJ who calls. Now let me say that this guy had been very aggressive making a lot of raises and continuation bets after the flop. The flop comes Jack 8 4. The Guy fires $75 looking to take it down right there RJ thinks about it for a while then calls. The Turn is a 3 hardly a card to scare anyone in this hand. The Guy fires 2 or 250 and RJ goes into the tank for like 2 minutes and then announces ALL IN. At this point the guy is Pot committed and has to call. The guy turns up Pocket 9's and RJ turns up 34 for two pair. The river is a blank and RJ Wins the Pot for like a Grand and the fireworks begin.

The guy starts on RJ for his bad play as the guy was doing his best imitation of Phil Helmuth telling a player how bad he is. RJ just smiles as he's stacking his chips. I whisper to RJ you'll have to show me what book and chapter that poker move was from. Calling $75 with bottom pair!!

Well the guy wouldn't stop as he proceeds to call RJ a donkey then RJ says " I could drink 10 beers and play and still be a better player than you.'" The guy is going nuts so then RJ adds this classic " If you left now I would cash out your the only reason I'm here your the worst the player at the table." The guy goes off even more then RJ fires his last one liner telling the guy that they have ATM's all thru the casino so why doesn't he go get some more money as your stack looks pretty low and is almost not worth my time to stick around for. I'm laughing my ass off as is most of the table.

Finally we get back to action this guy still on tilt and I have a monster hand winning a $1300 Pot nothing exciting had the best hand from the word go and they just kept calling me. I guess I'm like Smith Barney as I do it the old fashioned way winning with the best hand just call me old fashioned.

RJ's new buddy goes out of his way to compliment my play and throws another jab at RJ by saying to me Very Nice Play why don't you teach your buddy how to play. Well it was time for dinner RJ's buddy had long been gone losing all his chips. As we got up RJ and I had most of the chips on the table. RJ $1250 and I had $1350.

By the way if you ever get a chance to eat at Fiamma in the MGM do so as this place is fabulous. The three of us had this 9 course meal that was unbelievable I'm still stuffed.

So that's how you spend the Wednesday after the All Star Game Vegas style!