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I have frequently seen many new young handicappers fall into the inevitable trap of betting a large volumn of games in the hopes of "stiking it rich". Unfortunately, many of those hopes and dreams are dashed often in a short period of time because the protypical handicapper does not know exatally what to look for when looking at the big board each and every day. To that end, I will attempt to give out some handicapping ideology from somebody who bets large amounts of money on the games they release in the hopes of helping those that are new to handicapping world.
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Handicapping Ideology 101 by Ethan Law: Part #1: What to look for?
In my opinion many handicappers are too one dimensional, in that they
only view a potential selection with a "single" method of handicapping.
This is a grave mistake, which will result in more losers then winners.
In order to understand "how" to handicap you first have some general
knowledge on how the odds makers (your enemy) make the lines we bet
each and every day. Most of the lines we see today are determined by a
number of individuals, which consists of a group of experts who have a
particular expertise in a specific sport. Just a few years back the
odds makers would make what I called a "true" line in that they made
the line so sharp that they would get about a 50/50 split from the
wagering community and they would walk away with their 10% vig on
losses. However, a more recent trend has shown that the odds makers
realized that they could do a lot better then the 10% and they now set
their lines (not only with their old formula) but now use the publics
"perception" of a particular match-up against them.
With that
being said one, the very first thing I consider when handicapping a
selection is the "line value." Arguably, this is the only method of
people who bet professionally. I am one of the lead advisers of a
betting group in Manhattan, which consists of 18 investors and they bet
between $30-$70k per game. The group simply "plays the numbers" (thats what I call it) and they rarely if ever look at the teams involved. This is a
true value bettor. They could care less about trends, stats, ect...ect,
they only deal with value. Of course, since you are not part of a large
betting group and have to do this on your own, determining the line
value in a given game can be daunting. However, remember what I said
above, the lines today are largely based upon the publics perception of
a match-up or a particular team. For example, the Patriots this season
went off early in the season. The public saw that they were covering by
an average of almost 20 points per game and they had to immediately
adjust the lines. Fact: the public is enamored with playing favorites
and OVERS. Underdogs and UNDER selections are far less common in the
general betting public. Fact: Professional handicappers play underdogs
and UNDER bets. So going into setting some of the mid-season lines the
odds makers knew the public would be playing New England (in all
likelihood) regardless of the number they set. New England started the
season 9-1 ATS with their two largest lines at -16 & -16.5. They
won and covered at Buffalo 56-10 as a -16 road favorite. The very next
week they played Philadelphia at home and they set the line at a
whopping 25 points! Are you kidding me here? Despite being 5-5 at the
time, the Eagles went into this match-up with a better power ranking
then did Buffalo and also winners of two straight. The actually true
line in this contest should have been -20.5 to -21 give or take. But
New England just won the week before by 46 points, so the odds makers
knew they could set the line (giving a lot of value for the side nobody
wanted) and still would get flooded with New England money), which is
what happened in that contest with an Easy Eagles cover. That formula
worked and each week New England was over valued, and only manged a few spread covers the rest of the way.
So what is this "perception" I am talking
about. The odds makers usually make an adjustment (and value is added)
if one team is off a blowout win, while the other is off a blowout loss
or if teams with night/day records play each other to give just two
examples. Remember most of the betting public look only the standings
and watch ESPN before making a selection
(these are the books dream). Now we seperate the men from the boys. In
a lot of my selections I use the words "in the stats." Lets say we have
a situation where a 2-10 team is playing and 8-4 team and the line is
set at -14. Hmmm seems like a slam dunk right? Well not really. We need
to look inside the stats to see whats the difference between these
teams. Maybe the 2-10 team has actually won the game in the stats
(meaning they out gained their opponent in total offense) 8 times in
the season and their average margin of loss was by only 3 points. Or
maybe they played a brutal schedule while their opponent played cup
cake squads. All of these things are necessary to look into to see if
their is line value in the game.
I wish we could stop there, but
we need to continue. Injuries/suspensions often play havoc with a line,
and usually the adjust made are too extreme. No better example then
this was FSU/Kentucky this bowl season when the line went from -1 to
-10. the result...an FSU cover.
Once we see a selection we
perceive to have line value then the real work begins. A good
handicapper looks for reasons/arguments for (AND AGAINST) a particular
selection they like. The reason we want to know why the "other" side
might be the play is because you want to make the best decision
possible to give you the edge you need. So what are we looking for,
situational settings (ie bad travel spot) (meaningless game)
(non-conference game sandwiched between a key conference clash on
deck...ect...ect). Then we look to technicals (ie historical trends).
Although I only factor in trends as maybe 5% of my overall analysis,
they do serve their purpose. Finally and most importantly, we look to
fundamental unit on unit match-up advantages-disadvantages, which
focuses on how these teams match up on the field. Again, each of these
above criteria should be explored before pursuing a selection.
Although it is impossible to set a limit on "how many" games one should bet on a particular day, I would recommend that you your action
to only your best plays. No more then 5-7 a day, and ideally 2-3 a day.
I'm going to give you a samples of a game I did this bowl season and I want you to
read it carefully because it outlines exactally how I view a
particular selection using all of the above criteria. Although
this particuar selection won, my analysis was just as exhaustive in virtually every selection I released this season, so its
very important too keep in mind after all of this, even the very best handicappers in the world will lose
probably 40% of the time, which is why it
is a grind and you need to manage your money properly. Part #2 Money Management coming soon!
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FLORIDA ST (7-5) 
at 
KENTUCKY (7-5)
Time
after time again this season I have released selections that made most
of your hearts stop and this one will probably be a topper of them all,
as we are going to support one of my favorite underdogs and that is the
Florida State Seminoles. Indeed, over the last 7 years I have lost only
2 of 13 FSU selections I have released as I feel that I have an
excellent read on this team. Florida State (7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS) comes
into this contest with a very underrated and dangerous defense one that
is allowing opponents only 22 points per game this season. Despite a
strong defense, Florida State problem so to speak this season has
been on the offensive side of the ball where they have been erratic all
season. The offense is now led by Sophomore quarterback Drew
Weatherford (8 touchdowns 1 interception) who has been playing better
after a tough start to the season. Overall their offense is averaging
23 points per game on 239 yards passing and 121 yards rushing per
contest. FSU has struggled to run the football all season (averaging
just 3.5 yards per game) as their offensive line has been unable to
create the needed push to get anything going on the run game. Despite
some of their struggles this season FSU has shown the ability to step
it up and show that they could beat any team in the country if
motivated. They started the season with a very close loss at then No.
25 Clemson , but then followed that with four straight wins highlighted
by a win over then No. 22 Arkansas. They played their best game of the
season (when I released a premium selection on them) when they went
into Boston College to beat then No. 2 Boston College 27-17 a game that
they thoroughly dominated from start to finish. Despite those quality
wins, they also come into this bowl on a 1-2 SU & ATS run, getting
blown out by Virginia Tech (40-21) and Florida (45-12). Meanwhile,
Kentucky (7-5 SU & 6-5 ATS) comes into this contest with one of the
best offenses in the county led by senior (and NFL bound) quarterback
Andre Woodson (36 touchdowns, 10 interceptions). On the season Kentucky
averaged 36.7 points per game on 282 yards passing and 157 yards
rushing per game. Despite the explosive offense, Kentucky possess one
of the worst defense of all bowl teams this season as they are allowing
opponents an average of 30 points per game on a whopping 190 yards
rushing per contest and over 200 yards per contest through the air.
Overall their allowed opposing rushers an average of 4.5 yards per
carry and are giving up on average a whopping 5.3 yards per play on the
season. Similar to Florida State, Kentucky also comes into this contest
reeling as they are on a 2-5 SU & ATS run. Their defense was
thoroughly embarrassed in their finale where they gave up 52 points to
Tennessee.
As I hinted to above, this is not really a play for
those with a weak ticker, but if you allow me to explain, this is
actually the best value play of this bowl season. Again, we are dealing
with a perception vs reality situation of which the odds makers
hope to benefit. As you know by now, the main story surrounding this
contest has been the news of the fact that thirty-six Florida State
players will not play in this contest either due to injury, academic
ineligibility, or suspension, including part-time starting quarterback
Xavier Lee. Other important players missing the game for FSU will be
starting line backer Dakoda Watson (5th on the team in tackles with
50), corner back Patrick Robinson (leads the team with 6
interceptions), and three of the Seminoles starting defensive tackles.
Also of significance, FSU also lost the services of two starting
offensive linemen and both of their starting tight ends.
The net
result of this cheating scandal made this game go off the board for 2
days as the odds makers scrambled to adjust their lines. Originally,
the line had opened with Kentucky as a 1 point chalk. Since the news
came down with the suspensions the line went back on the board with
Kentucky installed as a 9 favorite in most shops. The whopping 8 point
adjust is quit staggering and had myself scratching my head because
even at the time the line was put back on the board it was still
unknown as to which/who the 36 players were who would not be making the
trip. As expected, the general betting publicbit on this overreaction
and money has been pouring in with Kentucky money as tracking site are
showing an 83% to 17% differential on money coming in on Kentucky.
Despite the rather gaudy betting percentages, the line has since only
move 1/2 a point to where it stands at 9.5. My take on this is simple,
what the bookmakers wanted to happen is happening as all of this
Kentucky money and Vegas is not scared keeping the line steady so more
and more people will bit. So the main question must be analyzeddo
these suspensions warrant the 7 point adjustment to the line in this
contest. My answer to that question is an emphatic NO! Although most of
the headlines read 36 FSU players suspended a closer look shows that
a majority of those players were non-scholarship players, but
admittingly some are key contributors. Clearly, as stated above in the
previous paragraph, the biggest impact from the confirmed suspensions
affected FSUs defensive line. Although the losses at tight may also
perceive to effect a passing team such as FSU, I can tell you with
certainty that those losses are not as significant due to the fact that
FSU has not used their tight ends in too many offensive sets for years.
Yes there were two losses to the FSU starting offensive line, but that
shouldnt be a significant loss considering that FSU is primarily going
to be passing the ball as it has all season. Also lost in the fray of
all this controversy is the fact that Kentucky will have an absentee
problem of its own, with freshman tailback Derrick Locke (521 rushing
yards, five touchdowns) is out of this contest with a broken rib. In
addition, Kentucky head coach Rich Brooks says top wide receiver (one
of Andre Woodsons top weapons) Keenan Burton (59 receptions, 9
touchdowns) is doubtful with a knee injury. Of note: Burton is also
their top kick off return man! I bet most of you didnt even know
thatadvantage FSU.
Although I am not trying to downplay the
very fact that there are 36 suspended players, I think its also
interesting to note that this type of controversy is something that
Florida State has dealt with all season, just maybe not at the same
level. Florida State is a very prideful team and in order to sustain
their very rich tradition it's been able to continually rally through
suspensions and controversy over the years and even in this season has
been able to maintain a high level of play despite many off field
distractions. If you may recall, in September of this year, police used
a Taser on linebacker Geno Hayes after an altercation with officers
outside a local nightclub at 2 a.m. Fullback Joe Surratt was charged
with a felony in that incident. Their back-up quarterback Xavier Lee
(who even started a few games this season) was suspended for two games
midway through the season, reportedly for academic reasons. Through
each of these so called distractions Florida State nevertheless managed
a winning season. Lets also not forget, that the last time something
like this happened was in 1978 when Arkansas, coached by Lou Holtz,
dismantled No. 2 Oklahoma 31-6 in the Orange Bowl (when Arkansas
suspended nearly half the team). The suspensions also help the
motivational mentality (one of the most important factors to consider
when betting a bowl game) as FSU will come out with and a fight and a
chip on its shoulder since no one will believe they can win. The last
time that happened they were a 14 point underdog against Boston College
and won the game outright. We also know that any time you get young and
hungry players getting their opportunity to shine and audition for
starting spots next season, we know we are going to get a full effort
from these kids. In contrast, ALL OF THE PRESSURE is on Kentucky, as
they are coming into this with some confidence issues losers as they
have lost four of their last five games. I wouldnt be at all surprised
to see a very nervous group of Wildcats this Monday as how can they
lose a game to a team without a bulk of its players and almost all the
depth? Advantage = FSU!
Getting back to a bit of the
fundamentals we already know that Kentucky is going to have a lot of
pressure on them in this game as the whole world basically expects them
to win this contest. Pressure has not been a good thing for Kentuckys
Andre Woodson who has throw 11 interceptions in the last 8 games.
Despite the suspensions, FSU should still be able to contain the
Kentucky ground game, which will put the pressure square on the
shoulders of the aforementioned Woodson. When Woodson has to pass the
football, it should be noted that FSU's secondary wasn't hit quite as
hard as the front seven, but even if their secondary was at full
strength we know Kentucky is going to get their passing yards. FSU is
also a very aggressive team at getting to the opposing quarterback
which could be a concern for a Kentucky team that allowed a staggering
35 sacks this season. The loss of Burton should nevertheless limit some
play calling for Kentucky so they may have to try to establish the run
more now that there are less options for Woodson to take. I know that
the Kentucky offensive numbers are frightening (especially when you
consider that the bulk of the suspensions effect the FSU defense) but
do take solace in the fact the overall scoring averages for the
Wildcats are a bit inflated due to the fact that they played in
multiple triple overtime games with LSU and Tennessee which has added
36 points to their overall points scored this season for an average of
3 points additional per game to their offensive scoring average. When
FSU has the ball, they will still own unit-on-unit fundamental match-up
advantages over this Kentucky defense. Despite the fact that FSU
struggled to run the football for much of this season, they should find
success in running the football against the 10th ranked rushing defense
in the SEC, as every opponent except one (South Carolina) ran for at
least 101 yards against the Wildcats this season. FSU starting
quarterback Drew Weatherford isn't one of the suspended players, and he
has had some very impressive games this season throwing for 339 yards
against Duke and 354 yards in the win over Boston College. Unlike his
counterpart, Weatherford avoids the costly turnover mistakes that could
be a major difference when taking on these kind of points as he has not
thrown an interception in his last 234 pass attempts. While he hasn't
always been accurate, he's been good at limiting mistakes throwing just
one interception, in a win over UAB in early September, with eight
touchdown passes. All of FSU's playmakers, Parker, Greg Carr and
DeCody Fagg are expected to be available, which should add to
Kentuckys defensive woes as they allowed 23 touchdown passes on the
season. In essence, we when compare these two defensive units in the
darkFSUs is better by more then 60 yards per game!
From the
traditional handicapping method we also have handicapping domination
from the technical perspective. For starters, Head coach Bobby Bowden
boasts a impressive 24-14 ATS record in his last 38 games against
opponents with offensive minded ideologies (average better then 425
yards per game. We also know that Florida State is a stellar 9-0-1 SU
in Bowl games where they are off an SU loss and an incredible 11-1 SU
against SEC opponents who have a .600 winning percentage. Meanwhile,
Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden comes into this contest with
impressive credentials of his own owning an impressive 19-8-1 SU mark
in Bowl games as head coach of the Seminoles. In contrast, Kentucky is
3-13 SU against an opponent with a better then .500 winning percentage
who is off a double digit ATS loss. Finally Mark Lawrence chimes in for
this nice nugget, SEC bowl favorites playing off back-to-back SU losses
are 0-9 ATS, while ACC bowlers are 9-4 ATS as a pick or dog versus SEC
foes. To be safe I am buying the hook up to ten but I am nevertheless
call for this game to be WON by Florida State outright!
Verdict: Kentucky 21, Florida St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON FLORIDA STATE +10 -$120
OPINION SELECTION ON FLORIDA STATE +$330